El Nuevo acuerdo de financiación regional: un análisis de urgencia ADENDA

This note contains some addenda to a recent paper (de la Fuente, 2009) that analyzed the new Spanish system of regional financing on the basis of the agreement between the central and regional Governments reached last July. The note updates my previous discussion after examining the bill that has been recently sent to Parliament by the Government and identifies some technical problems of the Government's proposal.

Inter-regional redistribution through infrastructure investment: tactical or programmatic?

In this paper we analyze the effects of both tactical and programmatic politics on the inter-regional allocation of infrastructure investment. We use a panel of data for the Spanish electoral districts during the period 1964-2004 to estimate an equation where investment depends both on economic and political variables. The results show that tactical politics do matter since, after controlling for economic traits, the districts with more ‘Political power’ still receive more investment. These districts are those where the incumbents’ Vote margin of victory/ defeat in the past election is low, where the Marginal seat price is low, where there is Partisan alignment between the executives at the central and regional layers of government, and where there are Pivotal regional parties which are influential in the formation of the central executive. However, the results also show that programmatic politics matter, since inter-regional redistribution (measured as the elasticity of investment to per capita income) is shown to increase with the arrival of the Democracy and EU Funds, with Left governments, and to decrease the higher is the correlation between a measure of ‘Political power’ and per capita income.

Human capital spillovers, productivity and regional convergence in Spain

This paper analyses the differential impact of human capital, in terms of different levels of schooling, on regional productivity and convergence. The potential existence of geographical spillovers of human capital is also considered by applying spatial panel data techniques. The empirical analysis of Spanish provinces between 1980 and 2007 confirms the positive impact of human capital on regional productivity and convergence, but reveals no evidence of any positive geographical spillovers of human capital. In fact, in some specifications the spatial lag presented by tertiary studies has a negative effect on the variables under consideration.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale has been the subject of various studies. The complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of process-based models for a first assessment. GISbased approaches associating an automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading may provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at the regional scale. The use of a digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, for the Canton de Vaud territory (Switzerland), a lithological map and a land use map, has allowed automatic identification of the potential source areas. The spreading estimates are based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations that allow to define the maximal runout distance of a debris flow.

Los Actores económicos y la dimensión regional : la Cambra de Comerç de Barcelona y Foment del Treball Nacional (1997-2007)

Esta investigación trata de esclarecer qué opinión merece y cómo repercute la existencia de gobiernos regionales en las organizaciones empresariales de ámbito regional. Ello lo observamos mediante el análisis de dos organizaciones empresariales catalanas: Foment del Treball Nacional y la Cambra de Comerç, Indústria i Navegació de Barcelona. Desafortunadamente, como sucede para el caso español, tras más de veinticinco años de experiencia regional existe un vacío en la literatura académica, tan sólo unos pocos estudios referenciados, tanto de organizaciones empresariales regionales como de su opinión sobre el Estado de las Autonomías y sus implicaciones para un determinado modelo económico y proyecto político.

Sobre la puesta en marcha del nuevo sistema de financiación regional: proyecciones para 2009 y algunas reflexiones

This paper presents an estimate of the financial results of the new Spanish system of regional financing in 2009. According to these estimates, some regions will experience sharp reductions in their adjusted financing per capita between 2007 and 2009 which may be very difficult to accept. This would mean that there will be strong pressures for the reform of the new system from the very beginning. To avoid, or at least mitigate, this problem it would be helpful to introduce some changes in the bill currently being discussed by the Parliament. The necessary changes would not alter the nucleus of the recent agreement.

Les symbioses agro-industrielles en Afrique de l'Ouest : évaluation du potentiel d'une nouvelle stratégie pour un développement durable

RésuméCette thèse traite de l'utilisation des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement et étudie le potentiel de cette stratégie pour stimuler un développement régional durable dans les zones rurales d'Afrique de l'Ouest. En particulier, lorsqu'une Symbiose Industrielle est instaurée entre une usine et sa population alentour, des outils d'évaluation sont nécessaires pour garantir que le projet permette d'atteindre un réel développement durable. Les outils existants, développés dans les pays industrialisés, ne sont cependant pas complètement adaptés pour l'évaluation de projets dans les pays en développement. En effet, les outils sont porteurs d'hypothèses implicites propres au contexte socio-économique dans lequel ils ont été conçus.L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer un cadre méthodologique pour l'évaluation de la durabilité de projets de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement.Pour ce faire, je m'appuie sur une étude de cas de la mise en place d'une Symbiose Industrielle au nord du Nigéria, à laquelle j'ai participé en tant qu'observatrice dès 2007. AshakaCem, une usine productrice de ciment du groupe Lafarge, doit faire face à de nombreuses tensions avec la population rurale alentour. L'entreprise a donc décidé d'adopter une nouvelle méthode inspirée des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle. Le projet consiste à remplacer jusqu'à 10% du carburant fossile utilisé pour la cuisson de la matière crue (calcaire et additifs) par de la biomasse produite par les paysans locaux. Pour ne pas compromettre la fragile sécurité alimentaire régionale, des techniques de lutte contre l'érosion et de fertilisation naturelle des sols sont enseignées aux paysans, qui peuvent ainsi utiliser la culture de biomasse pour améliorer leurs cultures vivrières. A travers cette Symbiose Industrielle, l'entreprise poursuit des objectifs sociaux (poser les bases nécessaires à un développement régional), mais également environnementaux (réduire ses émissions de CO2 globales) et économiques (réduire ses coûts énergétiques). Elle s'ancre ainsi dans une perspective de développement durable qui est conditionnelle à la réalisation du projet.A travers l'observation de cette Symbiose et par la connaissance des outils existants je constate qu'une évaluation de la durabilité de projets dans les pays en développement nécessite l'utilisation de critères d'évaluation propres à chaque projet. En effet, dans ce contexte, l'emploi de critères génériques apporte une évaluation trop éloignée des besoins et de la réalité locale. C'est pourquoi, en m'inspirant des outils internationalement reconnus comme l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie ou la Global Reporting Initiative, je définis dans cette thèse un cadre méthodologique qui peut, lui, être identique pour tous les projets. Cette stratégie suit six étapes, qui se réalisent de manière itérative pour permettre une auto¬amélioration de la méthodologie d'évaluation et du projet lui-même. Au cours de ces étapes, les besoins et objectifs en termes sociaux, économiques et environnementaux des différents acteurs sont déterminés, puis regroupés, hiérarchisés et formulés sous forme de critères à évaluer. Des indicateurs quantitatifs ou qualitatifs sont ensuite définis pour chacun de ces critères. Une des spécificités de cette stratégie est de définir une échelle d'évaluation en cinq graduations, identique pour chaque indicateur, témoignant d'un objectif totalement atteint (++) ou pas du tout atteint (--).L'application de ce cadre méthodologique à la Symbiose nigériane a permis de déterminer quatre critères économiques, quatre critères socio-économiques et six critères environnementaux à évaluer. Pour les caractériser, 22 indicateurs ont été définis. L'évaluation de ces indicateurs a permis de montrer que le projet élaboré atteint les objectifs de durabilité fixés pour la majorité des critères. Quatre indicateurs ont un résultat neutre (0), et un cinquième montre qu'un critère n'est pas atteint (--). Ces résultats s'expliquent par le fait que le projet n'en est encore qu'à sa phase pilote et n'a donc pas encore atteint la taille et la diffusion optimales. Un suivi sur plusieurs années permettra de garantir que ces manques seront comblés.Le cadre méthodologique que j'ai développé dans cette thèse est un outil d'évaluation participatif qui pourra être utilisé dans un contexte plus large que celui des pays en développement. Son caractère générique en fait un très bon outil pour la définition de critères et indicateurs de suivi de projet en terme de développement durable.SummaryThis thesis examines the use of industrial symbiosis in developing countries and studies its potential to stimulate sustainable regional development in rural areas across Western Africa. In particular, when industrial symbiosis is instituted between a factory and the surrounding population, evaluation tools are required to ensure the project achieves truly sustainable development. Existing tools developed in industrialized countries are not entirely suited to assessing projects in developing countries. Indeed, the implicit hypotheses behind such tools reflect the socioeconomic context in which they were designed. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodological framework for evaluating the sustainability of industrial symbiosis projects in developing countries.To accomplish this, I followed a case study about the implementation of industrial symbiosis in northern Nigeria by participating as an observer since 2007. AshakaCem, a cement works of Lafarge group, must confront many issues associated with violence committed by the local rural population. Thus, the company decided to adopt a new approach inspired by the concepts of industrial symbiosis.The project involves replacing up to 10% of the fossil fuel used to heat limestone with biomass produced by local farmers. To avoid jeopardizing the fragile security of regional food supplies, farmers are taught ways to combat erosion and naturally fertilize the soil. They can then use biomass cultivation to improve their subsistence crops. Through this industrial symbiosis, AshakaCem follows social objectives (to lay the necessary foundations for regional development), but also environmental ones (to reduce its overall CO2 emissions) and economical ones (to reduce its energy costs). The company is firmly rooted in a view of sustainable development that is conditional upon the project's execution.By observing this symbiosis and by being familiar with existing tools, I note that assessing the sustainability of projects in developing countries requires using evaluation criteria that are specific to each project. Indeed, using generic criteria results in an assessment that is too far removed from what is needed and from the local reality. Thus, by drawing inspiration from such internationally known tools as Life Cycle Analysis and the Global Reporting Initiative, I define a generic methodological framework for the participative establishment of an evaluation methodology specific to each project.The strategy follows six phases that are fulfilled iteratively so as to improve the evaluation methodology and the project itself as it moves forward. During these phases, the social, economic, and environmental needs and objectives of the stakeholders are identified, grouped, ranked, and expressed as criteria for evaluation. Quantitative or qualitative indicators are then defined for each of these criteria. One of the characteristics of this strategy is to define a five-point evaluation scale, the same for each indicator, to reflect a goal that was completely reached (++) or not reached at all (--).Applying the methodological framework to the Nigerian symbiosis yielded four economic criteria, four socioeconomic criteria, and six environmental criteria to assess. A total of 22 indicators were defined to characterize the criteria. Evaluating these indicators made it possible to show that the project meets the sustainability goals set for the majority of criteria. Four indicators had a neutral result (0); a fifth showed that one criterion had not been met (--). These results can be explained by the fact that the project is still only in its pilot phase and, therefore, still has not reached its optimum size and scope. Following up over several years will make it possible to ensure these gaps will be filled.The methodological framework presented in this thesis is a highly effective tool that can be used in a broader context than developing countries. Its generic nature makes it a very good tool for defining criteria and follow-up indicators for sustainable development.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: Example in Swiss Alps

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

El nuevo sistema de financiación regional: Un análisis crítico y proyecciones para 2009

The central and regional governments of Spain have recently reached an agreement to reform the regional financing system. This paper describes the structure of the new system and provides preliminary estimates of its initial financial results. It also identifies some shortcomings of the new model.

Una Nota sobre la dinámica de la financiación regional

En esta nota se analizan las propiedades dinámicas del actual sistema de financiación y se comparan con las de su antecesor, prestando especial atención a la sensibilidad de ambos al crecimiento de la renta y la población regional así como a la evolución de la estructura por edades de esta última

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.