Invasion and eradication of a competitively superior species in heterogeneous landscapes

The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant.

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients.

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Exploring the periodicity of cardiovascular events in Switzerland: variation in deaths and hospitalizations across seasons, day of the week and hour of the day.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.

The Impact of Cooperation on R&D, Innovation andProductivity: an Analysis of Spanish Manufacturing and Services Firms

This paper investigates relationships between cooperation, R&D, innovation and productivity in Spanish firms. It uses a large sample of firm-level micro-data and applies an extended structural model that aims to explain the effects of cooperation on R&D investment, of R&D investment on output innovation, and of innovation on firms’ productivity levels. It also analyses the determinants of R&D cooperation. Firms’ technology level is taken into account in order to analyse the differences between high-tech and low-tech firms, both in the industrial and service sectors. The database used was the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for the period 2004-2010. Empirical results show that firms which cooperate in innovative activities are more likely to invest in R&D in subsequent years. As expected, R&D investment has a positive impact on the probability of generating an innovation, in terms of both product and process, for manufacturing firms. Finally, innovation output has a positive impact on firms’ productivity, being greater in process innovations.

Trigeminal neuralgia related to megadolichobasilar artery compression: a prospective series of twenty-nine patients treated with gamma knife surgery, with more than one year of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Trigeminal neuralgia (TN) secondary to megadolichobasilar artery (MBA) compression is considerably difficult to manage surgically. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the safety/efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) in this special group of patients. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 29 patients with >1 year of follow-up presenting with MBA compression were treated with GKS at Timone University Hospital. Radiosurgery was performed using a Gamma Knife (model B, C or Perfexion). A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 9.1 mm (range: 6-18.2 mm) from the emergence. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 46.1 months (range: 12.9-157.9 months). Initially, all patients (100%) were pain free; the average time to complete pain relief was 13.5 days (range: 0-240 days). Their actuarial probability of remaining pain free without medication at 0.5, 1 and 2 years was 93.1, 79.3 and 75.7%, respectively, and remained stable until 13 years after treatment. The actuarial probability of hypoesthesia onset at 6 months was 4.3%; at 1 year it reached 13% and remained stable until 13 years after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: GKS proved to be reasonably safe and effective on a long-term basis as a first- and/or second-line surgical treatment for TN due to MBA compression.

The Impact of Cooperation on R&D, Innovation and Productivity: an Analysis of Spanish Manufacturing and Services Firms

This paper investigates relationships between cooperation, R&D, innovation and productivity in Spanish firms. It uses a large sample of firm-level micro-data and applies an extended structural model that aims to explain the effects of cooperation on R&D investment, of R&D investment on output innovation, and of innovation on firms’ productivity levels. It also analyses the determinants of R&D cooperation. Firms’ technology level is taken into account in order to analyse the differences between high-tech and low-tech firms, both in the industrial and service sectors. The database used was the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for the period 2004-2010. Empirical results show that firms which cooperate in innovative activities are more likely to invest in R&D in subsequent years. As expected, R&D investment has a positive impact on the probability of generating an innovation, in terms of both product and process, for manufacturing firms. Finally, innovation output has a positive impact on firms’ productivity, being greater in process innovations. Keywords: innovation sources; productivity; R&D Cooperation

Who Cares? A comparison of informal and formal care provision in Spain, England and the USA

This paper investigates the prevalence of incapacity in performing daily activities and the associations between household composition and availability of family members and receipt of care among older adults with functioning problems in Spain, England and the United States of America (USA). We examine how living arrangements, marital status, child availability, limitations in functioning ability, age and gender affect the probability of receiving formal care and informal care from household members and from others in three countries with different family structures, living arrangements and policies supporting care of the incapacitated. Data sources include the 2006 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe for Spain, the third wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2006), and the eighth wave of the USA Health and Retirement Study (2006). Logistic and multinomial logistic regressions are used to estimate the probability of receiving care and the sources of care among persons age 50 and older. The percentage of people with functional limitations receiving care is higher in Spain. More care comes from outside the household in the USA and England than in Spain. The use of formal care among the incapacitated is lowest in the USA and highest in Spain.

A novel approach to reducing number of sensing units for wearable gait analysis systems.

Gait analysis methods to estimate spatiotemporal measures, based on two, three or four gyroscopes attached on lower limbs have been discussed in the literature. The most common approach to reduce the number of sensing units is to simplify the underlying biomechanical gait model. In this study, we propose a novel method based on prediction of movements of thighs from movements of shanks. Datasets from three previous studies were used. Data from the first study (ten healthy subjects and ten with Parkinson's disease) were used to develop and calibrate a system with only two gyroscopes attached on shanks. Data from two other studies (36 subjects with hip replacement, seven subjects with coxarthrosis, and eight control subjects) were used for comparison with the other methods and for assessment of error compared to a motion capture system. Results show that the error of estimation of stride length compared to motion capture with the system with four gyroscopes and our new method based on two gyroscopes was close ( -0.8 ±6.6 versus 3.8 ±6.6 cm). An alternative with three sensing units did not show better results (error: -0.2 ±8.4 cm). Finally, a fourth that also used two units but with a simpler gait model had the highest bias compared to the reference (error: -25.6 ±7.6 cm). We concluded that it is feasible to estimate movements of thighs from movements of shanks to reduce number of needed sensing units from 4 to 2 in context of ambulatory gait analysis.

Creation and Validation of Chronojump-Boscosystem: A Free Tool to Measure Vertical Jumps

Measuring the height of the vertical jump is an indicator of the strength and power of the lower body. The technological tools available to measure the vertical jump are black boxes and are not open to third-party verification or adaptation. We propose the creation of a measurement system called Chronojump-Boscosystem, consisting of open hardware and free software. Methods: A microcontroller was created and validated using a square wave generator and an oscilloscope. Two types of contact platforms were developed using different materials. These platforms were validated by the minimum pressure required for activation at different points by a strain gauge, together with the on/off time of our platforms in respect of the Ergojump-Boscosystem platform by a sample of 8 subjects performing submaximal jumps with one foot on each platform. Agile methodologies were used to develop and validate the software. Results: All the tools fall under the free software / open hardware guidelines and are, in that sense, free. The microcontroller margin of error is 0.1%. The validity of the fiberglass platform is 0.95 (ICC). The management software contains nearly 113.000 lines of code and is available in 7 languages.

Viral suppression rates in salvage treatment with raltegravir improved with the administration of genotypic partially active or inactive nucleoside/tide reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are often administered in salvage therapy even if genotypic resistance tests (GRTs) indicate high-level resistance, but little is known about the benefit of these additional NRTIs. METHODS: The effect of <2 compared with 2 NRTIs on viral suppression (HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL) at week 24 was studied in salvage patients receiving raltegravir. Intent-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed; last observation carried forward imputation was used to deal with missing information. Logistic regressions were weighted to create a pseudopopulation in which the probability of receiving <2 and 2 NRTIs was unrelated to baseline factors predicting treatment response. RESULTS: One-hundred thirty patients were included, of whom 58.5% (n = 76) received <2 NRTIs. NRTIs were often replaced by other drug classes. Patients with 2 NRTIs received less additional drug classes compared with patients with <2 NRTIs [median (IQR): 1 (1-2) compared with 2 (1-2), P Wilcoxon < 0.001]. The activity of non-NRTI treatment components was lower in the 2 NRTIs group compared with the <2 NRTIs group [median (IQR) genotypic sensitivity score: 2 (1.5-2.5) compared with 2.5 (2-3), P Wilcoxon < 0.001]. The administration of <2 NRTIs was associated with a worse viral suppression rate at week 24. The odds ratios were 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.13 to 0.89, P = 0.027) and 0.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.79, P = 0.023) when performing the last observation carried forward and the per-protocol approach, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed that partially active or inactive NRTIs contribute to treatment response, and thus the use of 2 NRTIs in salvage regimens that include raltegravir seems warranted.

War and the evolution of belligerence and bravery.

Tribal war occurs when a coalition of individuals use force to seize reproduction-enhancing resources, and it may have affected human evolution. Here, we develop a population-genetic model for the coevolution of costly male belligerence and bravery when war occurs between groups of individuals in a spatially subdivided population. Belligerence is assumed to increase an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group. An actor's bravery is assumed to increase his group's ability to conquer an attacked group. We show that the selective pressure on these two traits can be substantial even in groups of large size, and that they may be driven by two independent reproduction-enhancing resources: additional mates for males and additional territory (or material resources) for females. This has consequences for our understanding of the evolution of intertribal interactions, as hunter-gatherer societies are well known to have frequently raided neighbouring groups from whom they appropriated territory, goods and women.

Modulatory effects of acid-sensing ion channels on action potential generation in hippocampal neurons.

Extracellular acidification has been shown to generate action potentials (APs) in several types of neurons. In this study, we investigated the role of acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) in acid-induced AP generation in brain neurons. ASICs are neuronal Na(+) channels that belong to the epithelial Na(+) channel/degenerin family and are transiently activated by a rapid drop in extracellular pH. We compared the pharmacological and biophysical properties of acid-induced AP generation with those of ASIC currents in cultured hippocampal neurons. Our results show that acid-induced AP generation in these neurons is essentially due to ASIC activation. We demonstrate for the first time that the probability of inducing APs correlates with current entry through ASICs. We also show that ASIC activation in combination with other excitatory stimuli can either facilitate AP generation or inhibit AP bursts, depending on the conditions. ASIC-mediated generation and modulation of APs can be induced by extracellular pH changes from 7.4 to slightly <7. Such local extracellular pH values may be reached by pH fluctuations due to normal neuronal activity. Furthermore, in the plasma membrane, ASICs are localized in close proximity to voltage-gated Na(+) and K(+) channels, providing the conditions necessary for the transduction of local pH changes into electrical signals.