Essays in macroeconometrics

The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.

Travel behaviour change in old age : the role of critical incidents in public transport

Older people’s travel behaviour is affected by negative or positive critical incidents in the public transport environment. With the objective of identifying such inci- dents during whole trips and examining how travel beha- viour had changed, we have conducted in-depth interviews with 30 participants aged 65–91 years in the County of Stockholm, Sweden. Out of 469 incidents identified, 77 were reported to have resulted in travel behaviour change, 67 of them in a negative way. Most critical incidents were encountered in the physical environment on-board vehicles and at stations/stops as well as in pricing/ticketing. The findings show that more personal assistance, better driving behaviour, and swift maintenance of elevators and escala- tors are key facilitators that would improve predictability in travelling and enhance vulnerable older travellers’ feeling of security. The results demonstrate the benefit of involving different groups of end users in future planning and design, such that transport systems would meet the various needs of its end users.

Near-shore wave power characterized with a remotely controlled surface vehicle in Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, WA

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Understanding the limits of the seasonal prediction of sea ice in the Arctic

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Certain observations concerning the effects of epistasis on complex traits and the evolution of genomes.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-05

Examining the Relationship Between Secondary Traumatic Stress and Sickness Absenteeism within 9-1-1 Emergency Call Centers

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The threat of predictable and unpredictable pain: Differential effects on central nervous system processing?

Central nervous system performance is disrupted by pain and by the threat of pain. It is not known whether disruption caused by the threat of pain is dependent on the likelihood of pain occurring. We hypothesised that when a painful stimulus is possible but unpredictable central nervous system performance is reduced, but when the pain is predictable and unavoidable it is not. Sixteen healthy subjects performed a reaction time task during predictable and unpredictable conditions (100% and 50% probability of pain, respectively). Group data showed increased reaction time with the threat of pain by 50 ms (95% Cl 16 to 83 ms) for the predictable condition and 46 ms (95% CI 12 to 80 ms) for the unpredictable condition (p < 0.01 for both), but there was no difference between predictable and unpredictable conditions (p = 0.41). However, individual data showed that there was a differential effect in 75% of subjects (p < 0.05 for all) and that there was a greater effect of predictable pain for some subjects and a greater effect of unpredictable pain for others. Reaction time was related to reported anxiety (r = 0.49, p = 0.02 for both conditions). The predictability of a painful stimulus may have a differential effect on central nervous system performance within individuals, but anxiety about the impending pain appears to be important in determining this effect.

Learning of foraging skills by fish

This chapter outlines the relationships between a number of key factors that influence learning and memory, and illustrates them by reference to studies on the foraging behaviour of fish. Learning can lead to significant improvements in foraging performance in only a few exposures, and at least some fish species are capable of adjusting their foraging strategy as patterns of patch profitability change. There is also evidence that the memory window for prey varies between fish species, and that this may be a function of environmental predictability. Convergence between behavioural ecology and comparative psychology offers promise in terms of developing more mechanistically realistic foraging models and explaining apparently 'suboptimal' patterns of behaviour. Foraging decisions involve the interplay between several distinct systems of learning and memory, including those that relate to habitat, food patches, prey types, conspecifics and predators. Fish biologists, therefore, face an interesting challenge in developing integrated accounts of fish foraging that explain how cognitive sophistication can help individual animals to deal with the complexity of the ecological context.

Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Congruence in QTL for adventitious rooting in Pinus elliottii X Pinus caribaea hybrids resolves between and within-species effects

Targeting between-species effects for improvement in synthetic hybrid populations derived from outcrossing parental tree species may be one way to increase the efficacy and predictability of hybrid breeding. We present a comparative analysis of the quantitative trait loci (QTL) which resolved between from within-species effects for adventitious rooting in two populations of hybrids between Pinus elliottii and P. caribaea, an outbred F-1 (n=287) and an inbred-like F-2 family (n=357). Most small to moderate effect QTL (each explaining 2-5% of phenotypic variation, PV) were congruent (3 out of 4 QTL in each family) and therefore considered within-species effects as they segregated in both families. A single large effect QTL (40% PV) was detected uniquely in the F-2 family and assumed to be due to a between-species effect, resulting from a genetic locus with contrasting alleles in each parental species. Oligogenic as opposed to polygenic architecture was supported in both families (60% and 20% PV explained by 4 QTL in the F-2 and F-1 respectively). The importance of adventitious rooting for adaptation to survive water-logged environments was thought in part to explain oligogenic architecture of what is believed to be a complex trait controlled by many hundreds of genes.

Personality and goal orientation as predictors of performance in a learning context

The current study aimed to investigate and provide furthering evidence of individual differences as determinants of task performance. This research focused on the effects of the personality traits Openness to Experience and Neuroticism, and two goal orientation traits. Learning Orientation and Avoid Orientation, on task performance. The hypotheses addressed the predictability of the traits, the differential effects of personality and goal orientation traits, and the mediating effects of goal orientation on the relationship between personality and performance. The results were based on questionnaire responses completed by a sample of 103 students. Scores on a computerised Air Traffic Control (ATC) decision-making task were used as a measure of task performance. Learning Orientation was found to be a significant predictor of performance, whilst the effect of Neuroticism was 'approaching' significance. Results indicated strong support for the differential relationship between personality traits and corresponding goal orientation traits. The mediating relationship between Openness to Experience, Learning Orientation and performance was also found to be 'approaching' significance. Results were indicative of the influences of personality and goal orientation on consequent performance outcomes. Implications were discussed, as well as suggestions for possible future directions in research assessing the predictabilit)' of individual differences in learning contexts.

Exchange controls and European stock market integration

This paper examines the impact on stock price predictability that the removal of exchange controls had on major European countries during the late 1970s and 1980s. It is found that for Germany, Switzerland and France, the removal of exchange controls led to an increase in the interdependence between these and other markets. In contrast, there is little evidence of an increase in interdependence for the UK and Italy.

Formulation of multiparticulate systems as lyophilised orally disintegrating tablets

The current study aimed to exploit the electrostatic associative interaction between carrageenan and gelatin to optimise a formulation of lyophilised orally disintegrating tablets (ODTs) suitable for multiparticulate delivery. A central composite face centred (CCF) design was applied to study the influence of formulation variables (gelatin, carrageenan and alanine concentrations) on the crucial responses of the formulation (disintegration time, hardness, viscosity and pH). The disintegration time and viscosity were controlled by the associative interaction between gelatin and carrageenan upon hydration which forms a strong complex that increases the viscosity of the stock solution and forms tablet with higher resistant to disintegration in aqueous medium. Therefore, the levels of carrageenan, gelatin and their interaction in the formulation were the significant factors. In terms of hardness, increasing gelatin and alanine concentration was the most effective way to improve tablet hardness. Accordingly, optimum concentrations of these excipients were needed to find the best balance that fulfilled all formulation requirements. The revised model showed high degree of predictability and optimisation reliability and therefore was successful in developing an ODT formulation with optimised properties that were able deliver enteric coated multiparticulates of omeprazole without compromising their functionality.