Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Voltage unbalance reduction in low voltage feeders by dynamic switching of residential customers among three phases

Low voltage distribution feeders with large numbers of single phase residential loads experience severe current unbalance that often causes voltage unbalance problems. The addition of intermittent generation and new loads in the form of roof top photovoltaic generation and electric vehicles makes these problems even more acute. In this paper, an intelligent dynamic residential load transfer scheme is proposed. Residential loads can be transferred from one phase to another phase to minimize the voltage unbalance along the feeder. Each house is supplied through a static transfer switch with three-phase input and single-phase output connection. The main controller, installed at the transformer will observe the power consumption in each load and determine which house(s) should be transferred from one phase to another in order to keep the voltage unbalance in the feeder at a minimum. The efficacy of the proposed load transfer scheme is verified through MATLAB and PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

Wide area controls for transient and dynamic stability enhancement

This paper presents a study done into the effectiveness of using local acceleration measurements vs. remote angle measurements in providing stabilising control via SVCs following large disturbances. The system studied was an analogue of the Queensland-New South Wales Interconnection (QNI) and involved the control of an existing Static Var Compensators (SVC) at Sydney West. This study is placed in the context of wide area controls for large systems using aggregated models for groups of machines.

Load profile based determination of distribution feeder configuration by dynamic programming

This paper presents a new method to determine feeder reconfiguration scheme considering variable load profile. The objective function consists of system losses, reliability costs and also switching costs. In order to achieve an optimal solution the proposed method compares these costs dynamically and determines when and how it is reasonable to have a switching operation. The proposed method divides a year into several equal time periods, then using particle swarm optimization (PSO), optimal candidate configurations for each period are obtained. System losses and customer interruption cost of each configuration during each period is also calculated. Then, considering switching cost from a configuration to another one, dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) is used to determine the annual reconfiguration scheme. Several test systems were used to validate the proposed method. The obtained results denote that to have an optimum solution it is necessary to compare operation costs dynamically.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

Towards robotic visual and acoustic stealth for outdoor dynamic target tracking

Covertly tracking mobile targets, either animal or human, in previously unmapped outdoor natural environments using off-road robotic platforms requires both visual and acoustic stealth. Whilst the use of robots for stealthy surveillance is not new, the majority only consider navigation for visual covertness. However, most fielded robotic systems have a non-negligible acoustic footprint arising from the onboard sensors, motors, computers and cooling systems, and also from the wheels interacting with the terrain during motion. This time-varying acoustic signature can jeopardise any visual covertness and needs to be addressed in any stealthy navigation strategy. In previous work, we addressed the initial concepts for acoustically masking a tracking robot’s movements as it travels between observation locations selected to minimise its detectability by a dynamic natural target and ensuring con- tinuous visual tracking of the target. This work extends the overall concept by examining the utility of real-time acoustic signature self-assessment and exploiting shadows as hiding locations for use in a combined visual and acoustic stealth framework.

Acoustic Masking of a Stealthy Outdoor Robot Tracking a Dynamic Target

This work is motivated by the desire to covertly track mobile targets, either animal or human, in previously unmapped outdoor natural environments using off-road robotic platforms with a non-negligible acoustic signature. The use of robots for stealthy surveillance is not new. Many studies exist but only consider the navigation problem to maintain visual covertness. However, robotic systems also have a significant acoustic footprint from the onboard sensors, motors, computers and cooling systems, and also from the wheels interacting with the terrain during motion. All these can jepordise any visual covertness. In this work, we experimentally explore the concepts of opportunistically utilizing naturally occurring sounds within outdoor environments to mask the motion of a robot, and being visually covert whilst maintaining constant observation of the target. Our experiments in a constrained outdoor built environment demonstrate the effectiveness of the concept by showing a reduced acoustic signature as perceived by a mobile target allowing the robot to covertly navigate to opportunistic vantage points for observation.

Kelp detection in highly dynamic environments using texture recognition

This paper describes a texture recognition based method for segmenting kelp from images collected in highly dynamic shallow water environments by an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). A particular challenge is image quality that is affected by uncontrolled lighting, reduced visibility, significantly varying perspective due to platform egomotion, and kelp sway from wave action. The kelp segmentation approach uses the Mahalanobis distance as a way to classify Haralick texture features from sub-regions within an image. The results illustrate the applicability of the method to classify kelp allowing construction of probability maps of kelp masses across a sequence of images.

Vertical dynamic interaction of trains and rail steel bridges

Rail steel bridges are vulnerable to high impact forces due to the passage of trains; unfortunately the determination of these transient impact forces is not straightforward as these are affected by a large number of parameters, including the wagon design, the wheel-rail contact and the design parameters of the bridge deck and track, as well as the operational parameters – wheel load and speed. To determine these impact forces, a detailed rail train-track/bridge dynamic interaction model has been developed, which includes a comprehensive train model using multi-body dynamics approach and a flexible track/bridge model using Euler– Bernoulli beam theory. Single and multi-span bridges have been modelled to examine their dynamic characteristics. From the single span bridge, the train critical speed is determined; the minimum distance of two peak loadings is found to affect the train critical speed. The impact factor and the dynamic characteristics are discussed.

Accurate measurement of the molecular thickness of thin organic shells on small inorganic cores using dynamic light scattering

Dynamic light scattering (DLS) has become a primary nanoparticle characterization technique with applications from materials characterization to biological and environmental detection. With the expansion in DLS use from homogeneous spheres to more complicated nanostructures, comes a decrease in accuracy. Much research has been performed to develop different diffusion models that account for the vastly different structures but little attention has been given to the effect on the light scattering properties in relation to DLS. In this work, small (core size < 5 nm) core-shell nanoparticles were used as a case study to measure the capping thickness of a layer of dodecanethiol (DDT) on Au and ZnO nanoparticles by DLS. We find that the DDT shell has very little effect on the scattering properties of the inorganic core and hence can be ignored to a first approximation. However, this results in conventional DLS analysis overestimating the hydrodynamic size in the volume and number weighted distributions. By introducing a simple correction formula that more accurately yields hydrodynamic size distributions a more precise determination of the molecular shell thickness is obtained. With this correction, the measured thickness of the DDT shell was found to be 7.3 ± 0.3 Å, much less than the extended chain length of 16 Å. This organic layer thickness suggests that on small nanoparticles, the DDT monolayer adopts a compact disordered structure rather than an open ordered structure on both ZnO and Au nanoparticle surfaces. These observations are in agreement with published molecular dynamics results.

Constrained control design for dynamic positioning of marine vehicles with control allocation

In this paper, we address the control design problem of positioning of over-actuated marine vehicles with control allocation. The proposed design is based on a combined position and velocity loops in a multi-variable anti-windup implementation together with a control allocation mapping. The vehicle modelling is considered with appropriate simplifications related to low-speed manoeuvring hydrodynamics and vehicle symmetry. The control design is considered together with a control allocation mapping. We derive analytical tuning rules based on requirements of closed-loop stability and performance. The anti- windup implementation of the controller is obtained by mapping the actuator-force constraint set into a constraint set for the generalized forces. This approach ensures that actuation capacity is not violated by constraining the generalized control forces; thus, the control allocation is simplified since it can be formulated as an unconstrained problem. The mapping can also be modified on-line based on actuator availability to provide actuator-failure accommodation. We provide a proof of the closed-loop stability and illustrate the performance using simulation scenarios for an open-frame underwater vehicle.

Online self-supervised multi-instance segmentation of dynamic objects

This paper presents a method for the continuous segmentation of dynamic objects using only a vehicle mounted monocular camera without any prior knowledge of the object’s appearance. Prior work in online static/dynamic segmentation is extended to identify multiple instances of dynamic objects by introducing an unsupervised motion clustering step. These clusters are then used to update a multi-class classifier within a self-supervised framework. In contrast to many tracking-by-detection based methods, our system is able to detect dynamic objects without any prior knowledge of their visual appearance shape or location. Furthermore, the classifier is used to propagate labels of the same object in previous frames, which facilitates the continuous tracking of individual objects based on motion. The proposed system is evaluated using recall and false alarm metrics in addition to a new multi-instance labelled dataset to evaluate the performance of segmenting multiple instances of objects.

The role of the market sub-system and the socio-technical sub-system in innovation and firm performance : a dynamic capabilities approach

Organizational learning has been studied as a key factor in firm performance and internationalization. Moving beyond the past emphasis on market learning, we develop a more complete explanation of learning, its relationship to innovation, and their joint effect on early internationalization. We theorize that, driven by the founders’ international vision, early internationalizing firms employ a dual subsystem of dynamic capabilities: a market subsystem consisting of market-focused learning capability and marketing capability, and a socio-technical subsystem comprised of network learning capability and internally focused learning capability. We argue that innovation mediates the proposed relationship between the dynamic capability structure and early internationalization. We conduct case studies to develop the conceptual framework and test it in a field survey of early internationalizing firms from Australia and the United States. Our findings indicate a complex interplay of capabilities driving innovation and early internationalization. We provide theoretical and practical implications and offer insights for future research.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. 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