Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Participatory design and business modeling

En este proyecto miraremos como los campos de Diseño Participativo de las tecnologías de la información (DP, Participatory IT Design) y el diseño empresarial de modelos de negocio interactúan entre sí. Exploraremos el hueco que existe en los asuntos que aborda un proyecto de DP señalado por Kyng (2010). DP es una forma de enfocar el diseño para diseñar sistemas informáticos que tiene su propia ideología, haciendo mucho hincapié en la participación de los usuarios en el proceso. Esta ideología propia de DP da paso a un conjunto de métodos y herramientas para diseñar. DP tiene sus orígenes en Escandinavia en la década de los setenta cuando cambios de progreso social de la sociedad se introdujeron en el lugar de trabajo. Ya hay algunos investigadores del campo de DP que empiezan a estudiar este hueco señalado por Kyng. Un modelo de negocios es la forma en que un negocio crea, entrega y captura valor. En las últimas décadas las empresas informáticas han cambiado su modelo de negocios, transformándose en una oferta de servicios informáticos mayoritariamente. El mundo empresarial ya conoce los beneficios de las metodologías de diseño orientadas al usuario, sin embargo no acaban de ser adoptadas por las empresas informáticas. En el proyecto buscamos responder a las preguntas que surgen al juntar estas dos áreas de estudio. ¿Cómo interpreta la comunidad de DP el mundo empresarial? ¿La teoría empresarial como trata la metodología de diseño orientado al usuario? ¿Cómo afecta en una compañía real su política de usuario a su modelo de negocio y que técnicas utilizan para involucrar al usuario? ¿Qué intereses comunes y opuestos existen entre DP y el mundo empresarial? ¿Cuál es el futuro de DP en el mundo empresarial? En cuanto a la metodología del proyecto realice un estudio de la literatura de los campos de DP y el mundo empresarial usando fuentes recomendadas por expertos de cada área así como trabajos encontrados por mi propia cuenta que eran relevantes al tema tratado. Además realice un estudio de compañías desarrolladoras de software locales a Copenhague. Mediante una serie de visitas y entrevistas con esas compañías obtuve información del modelo de negocio y proceso de desarrollo de software de las mismas. También dialogamos en cuanto a su visión de DP y metodologías de diseño orientado al usuario y como se podrían beneficiar de ellas. Durante el desarrollo del proyecto he encontrado que DP y el mundo empresarial tienen dos visiones muy diferentes. Mientras uno busca obtener el máximo beneficio el otro busca apoderar a los usuarios en su área de trabajo. Aunque al igual que DP las empresas necesitan obtener información acerca de los usuario como sus necesidades, gustos, etc. Está claro que el software producido para el mundo empresarial tiene mucho espacio para mejorar ya que suele venir con manuales de instrucciones extensos y es necesario un entrenamiento previo para su utilización. Un problema importante de la introducción de DP en las empresas es la falta de predisposición de los usuarios en colaborar en el proceso de desarrollo ya que no hay demasiada tendencia a usuarios a dar feedback. El trabajo de investigacion de Timpka y Vimarlund (1998) Participatory Design In Economic Terms: A Theoretical Discussion llega a la conclusión de que DP es económicamente favorable para los desarrolladores. Pero omite muchos factores críticos de la economía de una empresa. En cuanto al futuro de DP en el mundo empresarial, DP tiene que adaptarse a las compañías desarrolladoras de software. A sus necesidades y teniendo en cuenta sus límites de recursos. Pero hay ciertos aspectos que deben ser abordados. El primer aspecto es el uso de recursos en las técnicas de DP, ya que utilizan demasiados. Otro aspecto que debería abordar es el uso de las nuevas tecnologías de comunicación y redes sociales, ya que apenas se han utilizado en DP. Mientras que otras áreas de estudio han hecho uso de estas nuevas tecnologías y se han revolucionado DP no ha sido capaz de integrarlas en sus técnicas. Por último en el proyecto realizo una comparativa del actual modelo de negocios y proceso de desarrollo de software de la compañía Forecast.it. En esta comparativa miro como cambiaria el negocio en el caso de que se produjeran cambios en ella al introducir la ideología de DP. Donde más se notan los cambios seria en su esquema de desarrollo de software ya que habría que hacer hueco para nuevos factores y pasos.

Optimizing the creation of base populations for aquaculture breeding programs using phenotypic and genomic data and its consequences on genetic progress

The success of an aquaculture breeding program critically depends on the way in which the base population of breeders is constructed since all the genetic variability for the traits included originally in the breeding goal as well as those to be included in the future is contained in the initial founders. Traditionally, base populations were created from a number of wild strains by sampling equal numbers from each strain. However, for some aquaculture species improved strains are already available and, therefore, mean phenotypic values for economically important traits can be used as a criterion to optimize the sampling when creating base populations. Also, the increasing availability of genome-wide genotype information in aquaculture species could help to refine the estimation of relationships within and between candidate strains and, thus, to optimize the percentage of individuals to be sampled from each strain. This study explores the advantages of using phenotypic and genome-wide information when constructing base populations for aquaculture breeding programs in terms of initial and subsequent trait performance and genetic diversity level. Results show that a compromise solution between diversity and performance can be found when creating base populations. Up to 6% higher levels of phenotypic performance can be achieved at the same level of global diversity in the base population by optimizing the selection of breeders instead of sampling equal numbers from each strain. The higher performance observed in the base population persisted during 10 generations of phenotypic selection applied in the subsequent breeding program.

A short critical history of the application of genomics to animal breeding

Two scientific schools have been in coexistence from the beginning of genetics, one of them searching for factors of inheritance and the other one applying biometrical models to study the relationships between relatives. With the development of molecular genetics, the possibilities of detecting genes having a noticeable effect in traits augmented. Some genes with large or medium effects were localized in animals, although the most common result was to detect markers linked to these genes, allowing the possibility of assisting selection programs with markers. When a large amount of simple and inexpensive markers were available, the SNPs, new possibilities were opened since they did not need the presence of genes of large or medium effect controlling a trait, because the whole genome was scanned. Using a large amount of SNPs permits having a prediction of the breeding value at birth accurate enough to be used in some cases, like dairy cattle, to halve its generation interval. In other animal breeding programs, the implementation of genomic selection is less clear and the way in which it can be useful should be carefully studied. The need for large populations for associating phenotypic data and markers, plus the need for repeating the process continuously, complicates its application in some cases. The implementation of the information provided by the SNPs in current genetic programs has led to the development of complex statistical tools, joining the efforts of the two schools, factorial and biometrical, that nowadays work closely related.

Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

Genome projects and gene pools: New germplasm for plant breeding?

Crop gene pools have adapted to and sustained the demands of agricultural systems for thousands of years. Yet, very little is known about their content, distribution, architecture, or circuitry. The presumably shallow elite gene pools often continue to yield genetic gains while the exotic pools remain mostly untapped, uncharacterized, and underutilized. The concept and content of a crop’s gene pools are being changed by advancements in plant science and technology. In the first generation of plant genomics, DNA markers have refined some perceptions of genetic variation by providing a glimpse of a primary source, DNA polymorphism. The markers have provided new and more powerful ways of assessing genetic relationships, diversity, and merit by infusing genetic information for the first time in many scenarios or in a more comprehensive manner for others. As a result, crop gene pools may be supplemented through more rapid and directed methods from a greater variety of sources. Previously limited by the barriers of sexual reproduction, the native gene pools will soon be complemented by another gene pool (transgenes) and perhaps by other native exotic gene pools through comparative analyses of plants’ biological repertoire. Plant genomics will be an important force of change for crop improvement. The plant science community and crop gene pools may be united and enriched as never before. Also, the genomes and gene pools, the products of evolution and crop domestication, will be reduced and subjected to the vagaries and potential divisiveness of intellectual property considerations. Let the gains begin.

Influence of habitat on nest location and reproductive output of Montagu’s Harriers breeding in natural vegetation

We examined distribution and breeding success of semi-colonial Montagu’s Harriers (Circus pygargus) in relation to habitat in Castellón province (eastern Spain). Breeding areas used by harriers at a 1-km2 scale were characterised by having intermediate percentages of scrub cover, their nesting habitat, and also had intermediate coverage of herbaceous crops and non-irrigated orchards. Out of all habitat variables considered, only the percentage of herbaceous crops within 500 m from individual nests had a positive and significant effect on breeding output of the species, suggesting that this habitat may be efficiently used by harriers to forage. Breeding output was also related to laying date and number of breeding neighbours within 500 m around nests, with pairs laying later and having a higher number of breeding neighbours showing lower fledged brood sizes. Number of neighbours (but not laying date) was positively related to scrub cover within 500 m and to cover of herbaceous crops within 2,000 m. Conservation actions for Montagu’s Harrier in the study area should be aimed at preserving areas of scrub with nearby presence of herbaceous crops or natural grasslands. However, habitat improvement for semi-colonial species such as Montagu’s Harrier may not result in a change of species distribution area, and good habitat areas may remain unoccupied, as social factors like presence of conspecifics play an important role in breeding area selection for these species.

Looking inside for good practice in Deaf bilingual education: a participatory SWOT analysis

Presentation to the Disability Studies Conference, Lancaster University, September 7-9, 2010.

Influence of characteristics of irrigation channels on the breeding bird community of a wetland zone in southeast of Spain

The “El Hondo Nature Park” is mainly composed of a series of irrigation channels and water reservoirs, subjected to various regimes of management as well as reed and vegetation control, thus creating a great variety of habitats and situations. To determine the influence of these habitats and management regimes on the local bird community, a set of characteristics of these channels and their surrounding area were analysed with a Correspondence Analysis (CA). The degree of reed development in channels and the presence in the surroundings of orchards and other reed formations were the most decisive factors to explain the probability of occurrence of reed birds and waterbirds, as well as bird species richness and abundance. Other bird species were not directly influenced by channel variables, but only by those of surrounding land uses.

Ethnobotanic importance of plants used in pigeon-breeding in Eastern Spain

Background: The importance that birds of the Columbidae family have had throughout history is visible on the Mediterranean coast. Pigeon fancying is the art of breeding and training carrier pigeons and currently, several breeds exist. The sport of racing pigeons consists in covering a distance at maximum possible speed. However, pigeon breeding has another modality called “sport pigeon”, where several males follow a female. This study focusses on ethnobotanical knowledge of native and exotic plant species that are used for diet, breeding, stimulation, healing illnesses and staining the plumage of pigeons bred in captivity. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews, we gathered information about the different plant species traditionally used for pigeon-breeding in the region of Valencia. Background material on remedies for bird illnesses was gathered from folk botanical references, local books and journals. The plant species were collected in the study area, then identified in the laboratory using dichotomous keys and vouchered in the ABH (Herbarium of Alicante University). We used Excel ® 2003 to perform a simple statistical analysis of the data collected. Results: We collected 56 species of plants (and one variety) that included 29 botanical families. The total number of species was made up of 35 cultivated and 21 wild plants. The most common were Gramineae (14 species), Leguminosae (6 species), and Compositae (4 species). Conclusions: Pigeon breeding is an immensely popular activity in Eastern Spain, and ethnobiological knowledge about breeding pigeons and caring for them is considerable. The names and traditional uses of plants depend on their geographical location, vernacular names serve as an intangible heritage. Feeding, environmental features, and genetic makeup of individuals are relevant aspects in the maintenance of avian health.

Census of breeding birds and population trends of the Dupont’s lark Chersophilus duponti in eastern Spain

We present the results of a breeding census of Dupont’s Lark carried out in the Autonomous Community of Valencia in 2011 using the mapping method and an analysis of the recent trend for this population. The population was estimated at 44-47 males, located in five habitat patches of the Rincón de Ademuz, in zones where the species had been detected previously. Density in these patches fits within values expected according to the relation between patch size and density found in the populations of the nearby provinces. Comparison to previous studies reveals that population of Valencia has suffered an annual decline rate of around 10% on average, thus the implementation of a conservation plan is required to ensure the survival of the species in the study area.