Análise espacial de óbitos por acidentes de trânsito, antes e após a Lei Seca, nas microrregiões do estado de São Paulo

OBJETIVO: Identificar aglomerados espaciais de microrregiões segundo taxas de óbito por acidentes de trânsito, no Estado de São Paulo, 1 ano antes e 1 ano após a Lei Seca. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico e exploratório, no período de 2007 e 2009, em 63 microrregiões do Estado de SP, Brasil. Utilizaram-se ferramentas de geoprocessamento com dados do DATASUS; analisando óbitos decorrentes de acidentes de trânsito em taxas por 100 mil habitantes, construindo coropletes. Nova estatística foi obtida subtraindo-se a taxa de 2009 de 2007, observando regiões de melhora ou piora. RESULTADOS: Em 2007, ocorreram 5.204 óbitos, com média de 83 óbitos/microrregião, variando entre 1 e 1.440. Já 2009 obteve 5.065 óbitos com a média de 80 óbitos/microrregião, variando entre 1 e 1.453. O coeficiente de Moran em 2007 foi I = 0,09 (p = 0,04) com correlação espacial positiva e 2009 obteve I = 0,04 (p = 0,16), sem correlação. A diferença entre as taxas obteve I = 0,23 (p = 0, 007), indicando associação espacial. Em 2007, Presidente Prudente, Rio Claro, Campinas, Bragança Paulista, Osasco e São Paulo tiveram altas taxas de óbito. Dessas regiões citadas, somente Osasco não se destacou em 2009. Ribeirão Preto, Ourinhos e Avaré obtiveram piora em 2009. A diferença entre as taxas de 2009 e 2007 mostrou que Amparo, Bragança Paulista e Campinas tiveram melhora, e Presidente Prudente e Ourinhos apresentaram piora. CONCLUSÃO: Foi possível identificar os locais com as maiores taxas de mortalidade, apontando locais onde as ações de fiscalização devem ser revisadas.

Dynamics of the cold surface layer of polythermal Storglaciären, Sweden

Polythermal glaciers, i.e. glaciers with a combination of ice at and below the freezing point, are widespread in arctic and subarctic environments. The polythermal structure has major implications for glacier hydrology, ice flow and glacial erosion. However, the interplay of factors governing its spatial and temporal variations such as net mass balance, ice advection and water content in the ice is poorly investigated and as yet not fully understood. This study deals with a thorough investigation of the polythermal regime on Storglaciären, northern Sweden, a small valley glacier with a cold surface layer in the ablation area. Extensive field work was performed including mapping of the cold surface layer using ground-penetrating radar, ice temperature measurements, mass balance and ice velocity measurements. Analyses of these data combined with numerical modelling were used specifically to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the cold surface layer, the spatial distribution of the water content just below the cold surface layer transition, the effect of radar frequency on the detection of the surface layer, and the sensitivity of the cold surface layer to changes in forcing. A comparison between direct temperature measurements in boreholes and ground-penetrating surveys shows that the radar-inferred cold-temperate transition depth is within ±1 m from the melting point of ice at frequencies above ~300 MHz. At frequencies below ~155 MHz, the accuracy degrades because of reduced scattering efficiency that occurs when the scatterers become much smaller compared to the wavelength. The mapped spatial pattern of the englacial cold-temperate transition boundary is complex. This pattern reflects the observed spatial variation in net loss of ice at the surface by ablation and vertical advection of ice, which is suggested to provide the predominant forcing of the cold surface layer thickness pattern. This is further supported by thermomechanical modeling of the cold surface layer, which indicates high sensitivity of the cold surface layer thickness to changes in vertical advection rates. The water content is the least investigated quantity that is relevant for the thermal regime of glaciers, but also the most difficult to assess. Spatial variability of absolute water content in the temperate ice immediately below the cold surface layer on Storglaciären was determined by combining relative estimates of water content from ground-penetrating radar data with absolute determination from temperature measurements and the thermal boundary condition at the freezing front. These measurements indicate large-scale spatial variability in the water content, which seems to arise from variations in entrapment of water at the firn-ice transition. However, this variability cannot alone explain the spatial pattern in the thermal regime on Storglaciären. Repeated surveys of the cold surface layer show a 22% average thinning of the cold surface layer on Storglaciären between 1989 and 2001. Transient thermomechanical modeling results suggest that the cold surface layer adapts to new equilibrium conditions in only a few decades after a perturbation in the forcing is introduced. An increased winter air temperature since mid-1980s seems to be the cause of the observed thinning of the cold surface layer. Over the last decades, mass balance measurements indicate that the glacier has been close to a steady state. The quasi-steady state situation is also reflected in the vertical advection, which shows no significant changes during the last decades. Increased winter temperatures at the ice surface would result in a slow-down of the formation of cold ice at the base of the cold surface layer and lead to a larger imbalance between net loss of ice at the surface and freezing of temperate ice at the cold-temperate transition.

Effect of multiple sources of disturbance on rocky benthic assemblages in some localities of Salento, Apulia

The first part of my work consisted in samplings conduced in nine different localities of the salento peninsula and Apulia (Italy): Costa Merlata (BR), Punta Penne (BR), Santa Cesarea terme (LE), Santa Caterina (LE), Torre Inserraglio (LE), Torre Guaceto (BR), Porto Cesareo (LE), Otranto (LE), Isole Tremiti (FG). I collected data of species percentage covering from the infralittoral rocky zone, using squares of 50x50 cm. We considered 3 sites for location and 10 replicates for each site, which has been taken randomly. Then I took other data about the same places, collected in some years, and I combined them together, to do a spatial analysis. So I started from a data set of 1896 samples but I decided not to consider time as a factor because I have reason to think that in this period of time anthropogenic stressors and their effects (if present), didn’t change considerably. The response variable I’ve analysed is the covering percentage of an amount of 243 species (subsequently merged into 32 functional groups), including seaweeds, invertebrates, sediment and rock. 2 After the sampling, I have been spent a period of two months at the Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford University, in Monterey (California,USA), at Fiorenza Micheli's laboratory. I've been carried out statistical analysis on my data set, using the software PRIMER 6. My explorative analysis starts with a nMDS in PRIMER 6, considering the original data matrix without, for the moment, the effect of stressors. What comes out is a good separation between localities and it confirms the result of ANOSIM analysis conduced on the original data matrix. What is possible to ensure is that there is not a separation led by a geographic pattern, but there should be something else that leads the differences. Is clear the presence of at least three groups: one composed by Porto cesareo, Torre Guaceto and Isole tremiti (the only marine protected areas considered in this work); another one by Otranto, and the last one by the rest of little, impacted localities. Inside the localities that include MPA(Marine Protected Areas), is also possible to observe a sort of grouping between protected and controlled areas. What comes out from SIMPER analysis is that the most of the species involved in leading differences between populations are not rare species, like: Cystoseira spp., Mytilus sp. and ECR. Moreover I assigned discrete values (0,1,2) of each stressor to all the sites I considered, in relation to the intensity with which the anthropogenic factor affect the localities. 3 Then I tried to estabilish if there were some significant interactions between stressors: by using Spearman rank correlation and Spearman tables of significance, and taking into account 17 grades of freedom, the outcome shows some significant stressors interactions. Then I built a nMDS considering the stressors as response variable. The result was positive: localities are well separeted by stressors. Consequently I related the matrix with 'localities and species' with the 'localities and stressors' one. Stressors combination explains with a good significance level the variability inside my populations. I tried with all the possible data transformations (none, square root, fourth root, log (X+1), P/A), but the fourth root seemed to be the best one, with the highest level of significativity, meaning that also rare species can influence the result. The challenge will be to characterize better which kind of stressors (including also natural ones), act on the ecosystem; and give them a quantitative and more accurate values, trying to understand how they interact (in an additive or non-additive way).

Precision horticulture: application on apple orchards

Precision horticulture and spatial analysis applied to orchards are a growing and evolving part of precision agriculture technology. The aim of this discipline is to reduce production costs by monitoring and analysing orchard-derived information to improve crop performance in an environmentally sound manner. Georeferencing and geostatistical analysis coupled to point-specific data mining allow to devise and implement management decisions tailored within the single orchard. Potential applications range from the opportunity to verify in real time along the season the effectiveness of cultural practices to achieve the production targets in terms of fruit size, number, yield and, in a near future, fruit quality traits. These data will impact not only the pre-harvest but their effect will extend to the post-harvest sector of the fruit chain. Chapter 1 provides an updated overview on precision horticulture , while in Chapter 2 a preliminary spatial statistic analysis of the variability in apple orchards is provided before and after manual thinning; an interpretation of this variability and how it can be managed to maximize orchard performance is offered. Then in Chapter 3 a stratification of spatial data into management classes to interpret and manage spatial variation on the orchard is undertaken. An inverse model approach is also applied to verify whether the crop production explains environmental variation. In Chapter 4 an integration of the techniques adopted before is presented. A new key for reading the information gathered within the field is offered. The overall goal of this Dissertation was to probe into the feasibility, the desirability and the effectiveness of a precision approach to fruit growing, following the lines of other areas of agriculture that already adopt this management tool. As existing applications of precision horticulture already had shown, crop specificity is an important factor to be accounted for. This work focused on apple because of its importance in the area where the work was carried out, and worldwide.

Evaluation of bone strength: microtomographic tecniques

This thesis is a part of a larger study about the characterization of mechanical and histomorphometrical properties of bone. The main objects of this study were the bone tissue properties and its resistance to mechanical loads. Moreover, the knowledge about the equipment selected to carry out the analyses, the micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), was improved. Particular attention was given to the reliability over time of the measuring instrument. In order to understand the main characteristics of bone mechanical properties a study of the skeletal, the bones of which it is composed and biological principles that drive their formation and remodelling, was necessary. This study has led to the definition of two macro-classes describing the main components responsible for the resistance to fracture of bone: quantity and quality of bone. The study of bone quantity is the current clinical standard measure for so-called bone densitometry, and research studies have amply demonstrated that the amount of tissue is correlated with its mechanical properties of elasticity and fracture. However, the models presented in the literature, including information on the mere quantity of tissue, have often been limited in describing the mechanical behaviour. Recent investigations have underlined that also the bone-structure and the tissue-mineralization play an important role in the mechanical characterization of bone tissue. For this reason in this thesis the class defined as bone quality was mainly studied, splitting it into two sub-classes of bone structure and tissue quality. A study on bone structure was designed to identify which structural parameters, among the several presented in the literature, could be integrated with the information about quantity, in order to better describe the mechanical properties of bone. In this way, it was also possible to analyse the iteration between structure and function. It has been known for long that bone tissue is capable of remodeling and changing its internal structure according to loads, but the dynamics of these changes are still being analysed. This part of the study was aimed to identify the parameters that could quantify the structural changes of bone tissue during the development of a given disease: osteoarthritis. A study on tissue quality would have to be divided into different classes, which would require a scale of analysis not suitable for the micro-CT. For this reason the study was focused only on the mineralization of the tissue, highlighting the difference between bone density and tissue density, working in a context where there is still an ongoing scientific debate.

A Method for Detecting Population Genetic Structure in Diverse, High Gene-Flow Species

Detecting small amounts of genetic subdivision across geographic space remains a persistent challenge. Often a failure to detect genetic structure is mistaken for evidence of panmixia, when more powerful statistical tests may uncover evidence for subtle geographic differentiation. Such slight subdivision can be demographically and evolutionarily important as well as being critical for management decisions. We introduce here a method, called spatial analysis of shared alleles (SAShA), that detects geographically restricted alleles by comparing the spatial arrangement of allelic co-occurrences with the expectation under panmixia. The approach is allele-based and spatially explicit, eliminating the loss of statistical power that can occur with user-defined populations and statistical averaging within populations. Using simulated data sets generated under a stepping-stone model of gene flow, we show that this method outperforms spatial autocorrelation (SA) and UST under common real-world conditions: at relatively high migration rates when diversity is moderate or high, especially when sampling is poor. We then use this method to show clear differences in the genetic patterns of 2 nearshore Pacific mollusks, Tegula funebralis (5 Chlorostoma funebralis) and Katharina tunicata, whose overall patterns of within-species differentiation are similar according to traditional population genetics analyses. SAShA meaningfully complements UST/FST, SA, and other existing geographic genetic analyses and is especially appropriate for evaluating species with high gene flow and subtle genetic differentiation.

Gene expression in cortex and hippocampus during acute pneumococcal meningitis

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal meningitis is associated with high mortality (approximately 30%) and morbidity. Up to 50% of survivors are affected by neurological sequelae due to a wide spectrum of brain injury mainly affecting the cortex and hippocampus. Despite this significant disease burden, the genetic program that regulates the host response leading to brain damage as a consequence of bacterial meningitis is largely unknown.We used an infant rat model of pneumococcal meningitis to assess gene expression profiles in cortex and hippocampus at 22 and 44 hours after infection and in controls at 22 h after mock-infection with saline. To analyze the biological significance of the data generated by Affymetrix DNA microarrays, a bioinformatics pipeline was used combining (i) a literature-profiling algorithm to cluster genes based on the vocabulary of abstracts indexed in MEDLINE (NCBI) and (ii) the self-organizing map (SOM), a clustering technique based on covariance in gene expression kinetics. RESULTS: Among 598 genes differentially regulated (change factor > or = 1.5; p < or = 0.05), 77% were automatically assigned to one of 11 functional groups with 94% accuracy. SOM disclosed six patterns of expression kinetics. Genes associated with growth control/neuroplasticity, signal transduction, cell death/survival, cytoskeleton, and immunity were generally upregulated. In contrast, genes related to neurotransmission and lipid metabolism were transiently downregulated on the whole. The majority of the genes associated with ionic homeostasis, neurotransmission, signal transduction and lipid metabolism were differentially regulated specifically in the hippocampus. Of the cell death/survival genes found to be continuously upregulated only in hippocampus, the majority are pro-apoptotic, while those continuously upregulated only in cortex are anti-apoptotic. CONCLUSION: Temporal and spatial analysis of gene expression in experimental pneumococcal meningitis identified potential targets for therapy.

Transient dominance in a central African rain forest

The large-crowned emergent tree Microberlinia bisulcata dominates rain forest groves at Korup National Park, Cameroon, along with two codominants, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis. M. bisulcata has a pronounced modal size frequency distribution around 110 cm stem diameter: its recruitment potential is very poor. It is a long-lived light-demanding species, one of many found in African forests. Tetraberlinia species lack modality, are more shade tolerant, and recruit better. All three species are ectomycorrhizal. M. bisulcata dominates grove basal area, even though it has similar numbers of trees (≥50 cm stem diameter) as each of the other two species. This situation presented a conundrum that prompted a long-term study of grove dynamics. Enumerations of two plots (82.5 and 56.25 ha) between 1990 and 2010 showed mortality and recruitment of M. bisulcata to be very low (both rates 0.2% per year) compared with Tetraberlinia (2.4% and 0.8% per year), and M. bisulcata grows twice as fast as the Tetraberlinia. Ordinations indicated that these three species determined community structure by their strong negative associations while other species showed almost none. Ranked species abundance curves fitted the Zipf-Mandelbrot model well and allowed “overdominance” of M. bisulcata to be estimated. Spatial analysis indicated strong repulsion by clusters of large (50 to <100 cm) and very large (≥100 cm) M. bisulcata of their own medium-sized (10 to <50 cm) trees and all sizes of Tetraberlinia. This was interpreted as competition by M. bisulcata increasing its dominance, but also inhibition of its own replacement potential. Stem coring showed a modal age of 200 years for M. bisulcata, but with large size variation (50–150 cm). Fifty-year model projections suggested little change in medium, decreases in large, and increases in very large trees of M. bisulcata, accompanied by overall decreases in medium and large trees of Tetraberlinia species. Realistically increasing very-large-tree mortality led to grove collapse without short-term replacement. M. bisulcata most likely depends on climatic events to rebuild its stands: the ratio of disturbance interval to median species' longevity is important. A new theory of transient dominance explains how M. bisulcata may be cycling in abundance over time and displaying nonequilibrium dynamics.

Landscape connectivity, habitat structure and activity of bat guilds in farmland-dominated matrices

Agricultural intensification has caused a decline in structural elements in European farmland, where natural habitats are increasingly fragmented. The loss of habitat structures has a detrimental effect on biodiversity and affects bat species that depend on vegetation structures for foraging and commuting. We investigated the impact of connectivity and configuration of structural landscape elements on flight activity, species richness and diversity of insectivorous bats and distinguished three bat guilds according to species-specific bioacoustic characteristics. We tested whether bats with shorter-range echolocation were more sensitive to habitat fragmentation than bats with longer-range echolocation. We expected to find different connectivity thresholds for the three guilds and hypothesized that bats prefer linear over patchy landscape elements. Bat activity was quantified using repeated acoustic monitoring in 225 locations at 15 study plots distributed across the Swiss Central Plateau, where connectivity and the shape of landscape elements were determined by spatial analysis (GIS). Spectrograms of bat calls were assigned to species with the software batit by means of image recognition and statistical classification algorithms. Bat activity was significantly higher around landscape elements compared to open control areas. Short- and long-range echolocating bats were more active in well-connected landscapes, but optimal connectivity levels differed between the guilds. Species richness increased significantly with connectivity, while species diversity did not (Shannon's diversity index). Total bat activity was unaffected by the shape of landscape elements. Synthesis and applications. This study highlights the importance of connectivity in farmland landscapes for bats, with shorter-range echolocating bats being particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation. More structurally diverse landscape elements are likely to reduce population declines of bats and could improve conditions for other declining species, including birds. Activity was highest around optimal values of connectivity, which must be evaluated for the different guilds and spatially targeted for a region's habitat configuration. In a multi-species approach, we recommend the reintroduction of structural elements to increase habitat heterogeneity should become part of agri-environment schemes.

Developmental Changes in the Structure and Composition of the Postsynaptic Density

The development of the brain and its underlying circuitry is dependent on the formation of trillions of chemical synapses, which are highly specialized contacts that regulate the flow of information from one neuron to the next. It is through these synaptic connections that neurons wire together into networks capable of performing specific tasks, and activity-dependent changes in their structural and physiological state is one way that the brain is thought to adapt and store information. At the ultrastructural level, developmental and activity-dependent changes in the size and shape of dendritic spines have been well documented, and it is widely believed that structural changes in spines are a hallmark sign of synapse maturation and alteration of synaptic physiology. While changes in spine structure have been studied extensively, changes in one of its most prominent components, the postsynaptic density (PSD), have largely evaded observation. The PSD is a protein-rich organelle on the cytoplasmic side of the postsynaptic membrane, where it sits in direct opposition to the presynaptic terminal. The PSD functions both to cluster neurotransmitter receptors at the cell surface as well as organize the intracellular signaling molecules responsible for transducing extracellular signals to the postsynaptic cell. Much is known about the chemical composition of the PSD, but the structural arrangement of its molecular components is not well documented. Adding to the difficulty of understanding such a complex mass of protein machinery is the fact that its protein composition is known to change in response to synaptic activity, meaning that its structure is plastic and no two PSDs are identical. Here, immuno-gold labeling and electron tomography of PSDs isolated throughout development was used to track changes in both the structure and molecular composition of the PSD. State-of-the-art cryo-electron tomography was used to study the fine structure of the PSD during development, and provides an unprecedented glimpse into its molecular architecture in an un-fixed, unstained and hydrated state. Through this analysis, large structural and compositional changes are apparent and suggest a model by which the PSD is first assembled as a mesh-like lattice of proteins that function as support for the later recruitment of various PSD components. Spatial analysis of the recruitment of proteins into the PSD demonstrated that its assembly has an underlying order.

Serosurveillance of Schmallenberg virus in Switzerland using bulk tank milk samples.

Infections with Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a novel Orthobunyavirus transmitted by biting midges, can cause abortions and malformations of newborns and severe symptoms in adults of domestic and wild ruminants. Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of the virus in a certain territory is important for the control and prevention of the disease. In this study, seroprevalence of antibodies against SBV and the spatial spread of the virus was investigated in Swiss dairy cattle applying a milk serology technique on bulk milk samples. The seroprevalence in cattle herds was significantly higher in December 2012 (99.5%) compared to July 2012 (19.7%). This high between-herd seroprevalence in cattle herds was observed shortly after the first detection of viral infections. Milk samples originating from farms with seropositive animals taken in December 2012 (n=209; mean 160%) revealed significantly higher S/P% ratios than samples collected in July 2012 (n=48; mean 103.6%). This finding suggests a high within-herd seroprevalence in infected herds which makes testing of bulk tank milk samples for the identification farms with past exposures to SBV a sensitive method. It suggests also that within-herd transmission followed by seroconversion still occurred between July and December. In July 2012, positive bulk tank milk samples were mainly restricted to the western part of Switzerland whereas in December 2012, all samples except one were positive. A spatial analysis revealed a separation of regions with and without positive farms in July 2012 and no spatial clustering within the regions with positive farms. In contrast to the spatial dispersion of bluetongue virus, a virus that is also transmitted by Culicoides midges, in 2008 in Switzerland, the spread of SBV occurred from the western to the eastern part of the country. The dispersed incursion of SBV took place in the western part of Switzerland and the virus spread rapidly to the remaining territory. This spatial pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that transmission by Culicoides midges was the main way of spreading.

Watershed classification in the Lower Mekong Basin: Rapid economic growth - a source of increasing potential for conflict over resource use

In the Lower Mekon Basin the extraordinary pace of economic development and growth contradicts with environmental protection. On base of the Watershed Classification Project (WSCP) and the inclusion of a DTM for the entire LMB the potential degradation risk was derived for each land unit. The risks were grouped into five classes, where classes one and two are considered critical with regard to soil erosion when the land is cleared of natural resources. For practical use the database has an enormous potential for further spatial analysis in combination with other datasets, as for example the NCCR North-South uses the WSCP within two research projects.

Eine sozialtopographische Analyse der Wohngebiete von Nuzi

The archaeological evidence from Late Bronze Age Nuzi has ever since the publication of R.F.S. Starr’s final report in 1939 experienced few attention, leaving the interpretation of the inner structure of this extraordinarily extensively excavated settlement to a thriving philological research. This paper presents a macroscopic spatial analysis of mobile inventories in the domestic areas. Based on the comparison with stationary installations and the formal architectural structure a revised socio-topography is proposed. The combination with the evidence from the investigations of the private archives elucidates the great potential for the consideration of multiple approaches in the future research on the function, meaning and sociology of spaces in Near Eastern Archaeology.