A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: Storm tracks and tropical easterly waves

Data from four recent reanalysis projects [ECMWF, NCEP-NCAR, NCEP - Department of Energy ( DOE), NASA] have been diagnosed at the scale of synoptic weather systems using an objective feature tracking method. The tracking statistics indicate that, overall, the reanalyses correspond very well in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower troposphere, although differences for the spatial distribution of mean intensities show that the ECMWF reanalysis is systematically stronger in the main storm track regions but weaker around major orographic features. A direct comparison of the track ensembles indicates a number of systems with a broad range of intensities that compare well among the reanalyses. In addition, a number of small-scale weak systems are found that have no correspondence among the reanalyses or that only correspond upon relaxing the matching criteria, indicating possible differences in location and/or temporal coherence. These are distributed throughout the storm tracks, particularly in the regions known for small-scale activity, such as secondary development regions and the Mediterranean. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), agreement is found to be generally less consistent in the lower troposphere with significant differences in both track density and mean intensity. The systems that correspond between the various reanalyses are considerably reduced and those that do not match span a broad range of storm intensities. Relaxing the matching criteria indicates that there is a larger degree of uncertainty in both the location of systems and their intensities compared with the NH. At upper-tropospheric levels, significant differences in the level of activity occur between the ECMWF reanalysis and the other reanalyses in both the NH and SH winters. This occurs due to a lack of coherence in the apparent propagation of the systems in ERA15 and appears most acute above 500 hPa. This is probably due to the use of optimal interpolation data assimilation in ERA15. Also shown are results based on using the same techniques to diagnose the tropical easterly wave activity. Results indicate that the wave activity is sensitive not only to the resolution and assimilation methods used but also to the model formulation.

Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.

Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM

A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is used to investigate the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability due to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC weakening is induced by freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic, and leads to a well-known sea surface temperature dipole and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic. Through atmospheric teleconnections and local coupled air–sea feedbacks, a meridionally asymmetric mean state change is generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, corresponding to a weakened annual cycle, and westerly anomalies develop over the central Pacific. The westerly anomalies are associated with anomalous warming of SST, causing an eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool particularly in August–February, and enhanced precipitation. These and other changes in the mean state lead in turn to an eastward shift of the zonal wind anomalies associated with El Niño events, and a significant increase in ENSO variability. In response to a 1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the North Atlantic, the THC slows down rapidly and it weakens by 86% over years 50–100. The Niño-3 index standard deviation increases by 36% during the first 100-yr simulation relative to the control simulation. Further analysis indicates that the weakened THC not only leads to a stronger ENSO variability, but also leads to a stronger asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. This study suggests a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific and indicates that fluctuations of the THC can mediate not only mean climate globally but also modulate interannual variability. The results may contribute to understanding both the multidecadal variability of ENSO activity during the twentieth century and longer time-scale variability of ENSO, as suggested by some paleoclimate records.

Equatorial Kelvin waves as revealed by EOS Microwave Limb Sounder observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses: Evidence for slow Kelvin waves of zonal wave number 3

[1] Temperature and ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura satellite are used to study equatorial wave activity in the autumn of 2005. In contrast to previous observations for the same season in other years, the temperature anomalies in the middle and lower tropical stratosphere are found to be characterized by a strong wave-like eastward progression with zonal wave number equal to 3. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the wave 3 components detected in the temperature anomalies correspond to a slow Kelvin wave with a period of 8 days and a phase speed of 19 m/s. Fluctuations associated with this Kelvin wave mode are also apparent in ozone profiles. Moreover, as expected by linear theory, the ozone fluctuations observed in the lower stratosphere are in phase with the temperature perturbations, and peak around 20–30 hPa where the mean ozone mixing ratios have the steepest vertical gradient. A search for other Kelvin wave modes has also been made using both the MLS observations and the analyses from one experiment where MLS ozone profiles are assimilated into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data assimilation system via a 6-hourly 3D var scheme. Our results show that the characteristics of the wave activity detected in the ECMWF temperature and ozone analyses are in good agreement with MLS data.

Impact of Tibetan Orography and Heating on the Summer Flow over Asia

The influence on the summer flow over Asia of both the orographic and thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau is investigated using a sequence of idealised experiments with a global primitive equation model. The zonally averaged flow is prescribed and both realistic and idealised orography and heating are used. There is some similarity between the responses to the two forcings when applied separately. The upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone is predominantly forced by the heating but also weakly by the orography. Below this, both forcings tend to give air descending in an equatorward anticyclonic circulation down the isentropes to the west and rising in a similar poleward circulation to the east. However the heating-only response has a strong ascending southwesterly flow that is guided around the south and south-east of the orography when it is included. On the northern side, the westerly flow over the orography gives ascent on the upslope and descent on the downslope. It is found that heating over the Plateau leads to a potential vorticity (PV) minimum and that if it is sufficiently strong the flow is unstable, producing a quasi-biweekly oscillation. During this oscillation the Tibetan anticyclone changes between a single centre over the southwestern side of the Plateau and a split/double structure with centres over China and the Middle East. These characteristics are similar to observed variability in the region. Associated with this quasi-biweekly oscillation are significant variations in the strength of the ascent over the Plateau and the Rossby wave pattern over the North Pacific. The origin of the variability is instability associated with the zonally extended potential vorticity PV minimum on a θ-surface, as proposed by Hsu and Plumb (2000). This minimum is due to the tendency to reduce the PV above the heating over the Plateau and to advection by the consequent anticyclone of high PV around from the east and low PV to the west. The deep convection to the south and southeast of the Plateau tends to suppress the quasi-biweekly oscillation because the low PV produced above it acts to reduce the meridional PV gradient reversal. The occurrence of the oscillation depends on the relative magnitude of the heating in the two regions.

Chemical composition observed over the mid-Atlantic and the detection of pollution signatures far from source regions

The atmospheric composition of the central North Atlantic region has been sampled using the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign, part of the wider International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). This paper presents an overview of the ITOP campaign. Between late July and early August 2004, twelve flights comprising 72 hours of measurement were made in a region from approximately 20 to 40°W and 33 to 47°N centered on Faial Island, Azores, ranging in altitude from 50 to 9000 m. The vertical profiles of O3 and CO are consistent with previous observations made in this region during 1997 and our knowledge of the seasonal cycles within the region. A cluster analysis technique is used to partition the data set into air mass types with distinct chemical signatures. Six clusters provide a suitable balance between cluster generality and specificity. The clusters are labeled as biomass burning, low level outflow, upper level outflow, moist lower troposphere, marine and upper troposphere. During this summer, boreal forest fire emissions from Alaska and northern Canada were found to provide a major perturbation of tropospheric composition in CO, PAN, organic compounds and aerosol. Anthropogenic influenced air from the continental boundary layer of the USA was clearly observed running above the marine boundary layer right across the mid-Atlantic, retaining high pollution levels in VOCs and sulfate aerosol. Upper level outflow events were found to have far lower sulfate aerosol, resulting from washout on ascent, but much higher PAN associated with the colder temperatures. Lagrangian links with flights of other aircraft over the USA and Europe show that such signatures are maintained many days downwind of emission regions. Some other features of the data set are highlighted, including the strong perturbations to many VOCs and OVOCs in this remote region.

Analysis of convectively-generated gravity waves in mesoscale model simulations and wind profiler observations

The characteristics of convectively-generated gravity waves during an episode of deep convection near the coast of Wales are examined in both high resolution mesoscale simulations [with the (UK) Met Oce Unified Model] and in observations from a Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) wind profiling Doppler radar. Deep convection reached the tropopause and generated vertically propagating, high frequency waves in the lower stratosphere that produced vertical velocity perturbations O(1 m/s). Wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the characteristic periods and wavelengths of the waves. In both the simulations and observations, the wavelet spectra contain several distinct preferred scales indicated by multiple spectral peaks. The peaks are most pronounced in the horizontal spectra at several wavelengths less than 50 km. Although these peaks are most clear and of largest amplitude in the highest resolution simulations (with 1 km horizontal grid length), they are also evident in coarser simulations (with 4 km horizontal grid length). Peaks also exist in the vertical and temporal spectra (between approximately 2.5 and 4.5 km, and 10 to 30 minutes, respectively) with good agreement between simulation and observation. Two-dimensional (wavenumber-frequency) spectra demonstrate that each of the selected horizontal scales contains peaks at each of preferred temporal scales revealed by the one- dimensional spectra alone.

Rational modification of the hierarchy of intermolecular interactions in molecular crystal structures by using tunable halogen bonds

A family of 16 isomolecular salts (3-XpyH)(2)[MX'(4)] (3-XpyH=3-halopyridinium; M=Co, Zn; X=(F), Cl, Br, (I); X'=Cl, Br, I) each containing rigid organic cations and tetrahedral halometallate anions has been prepared and characterized by X-ray single crystal and/or powder diffraction. Their crystal structures reflect the competition and cooperation between non-covalent interactions: N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds, C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M halogen bonds and pi-pi stacking. The latter are essentially unchanged in strength across the series, but both halogen bonds and hydrogen bonds are modified in strength upon changing the halogens involved. Changing the organic halogen (X) from F to I strengthens the C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M halogen bonds, whereas an analogous change of the inorganic halogen (X') weakens both halogen bonds and N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds. By so tuning the strength of the putative halogen bonds from repulsive to weak to moderately strong attractive interactions, the hierarchy of the interactions has been modified rationally leading to systematic changes in crystal packing. Three classes of crystal structure are obtained. In type A (C-F center dot center dot center dot X'-M) halogen bonds are absent. The structure is directed by N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds and pi-stacking interactions. In type B structures, involving small organic halogens (X) and large inorganic halogens (X'), long (weak) C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M interactions are observed with type I halogen-halogen interaction geometries (C-X center dot center dot center dot X' approximate to X center dot center dot center dot X'-M approximate to 155 degrees), but hydrogen bonds still dominate. Thus, minor but quite significant perturbations from the type A structure arise. In type C, involving larger organic halogens (X) and smaller inorganic halogens (X'), stronger halogen bonds are formed with a type II halogen-halogen interaction geometry (C-X center dot center dot center dot X' approximate to 180 degrees; X center dot center dot center dot X'-M approximate to 110 degrees) that is electrostatically attractive. The halogen bonds play a major role alongside hydrogen bonds in directing the type C structures, which as a result are quite different from type A and B.

Stochastic resonance in a nonlinear model of a rotating, stratified shear flow, with a simple stochastic inertia-gravity wave parameterization

We report on a numerical study of the impact of short, fast inertia-gravity waves on the large-scale, slowly-evolving flow with which they co-exist. A nonlinear quasi-geostrophic numerical model of a stratified shear flow is used to simulate, at reasonably high resolution, the evolution of a large-scale mode which grows due to baroclinic instability and equilibrates at finite amplitude. Ageostrophic inertia-gravity modes are filtered out of the model by construction, but their effects on the balanced flow are incorporated using a simple stochastic parameterization of the potential vorticity anomalies which they induce. The model simulates a rotating, two-layer annulus laboratory experiment, in which we recently observed systematic inertia-gravity wave generation by an evolving, large-scale flow. We find that the impact of the small-amplitude stochastic contribution to the potential vorticity tendency, on the model balanced flow, is generally small, as expected. In certain circumstances, however, the parameterized fast waves can exert a dominant influence. In a flow which is baroclinically-unstable to a range of zonal wavenumbers, and in which there is a close match between the growth rates of the multiple modes, the stochastic waves can strongly affect wavenumber selection. This is illustrated by a flow in which the parameterized fast modes dramatically re-partition the probability-density function for equilibrated large-scale zonal wavenumber. In a second case study, the stochastic perturbations are shown to force spontaneous wavenumber transitions in the large-scale flow, which do not occur in their absence. These phenomena are due to a stochastic resonance effect. They add to the evidence that deterministic parameterizations in general circulation models, of subgrid-scale processes such as gravity wave drag, cannot always adequately capture the full details of the nonlinear interaction.

Perturbation growth at the convective scale for CSIP IOP18

The Met Office Unified Model is run for a case observed during Intensive Observation Period 18 (IOP18) of the Convective Storms Initiation Project (CSIP). The aims are to identify the physical processes that lead to perturbation growth at the convective scale in response to model-state perturbations and to determine their sensitivity to the character of the perturbations. The case is strongly upper-level forced but with detailed mesoscale/convective-scale evolution that is dependent on smaller-scale processes. Potential temperature is perturbed within the boundary layer. The effects on perturbation growth of both the amplitude and typical scalelength of the perturbations are investigated and perturbations are applied either sequentially (every 30 min throughout the simulation) or at specific times. The direct effects (within one timestep) of the perturbations are to generate propagating Lamb and acoustic waves and produce generally small changes in cloud parameters and convective instability. In exceptional cases a perturbation at a specific gridpoint leads to switching of the diagnosed boundary-layer type or discontinuous changes in convective instability, through the generation or removal of a lid. The indirect effects (during the entire simulation) are changes in the intensity and location of precipitation and in the cloud size distribution. Qualitatively different behaviour is found for strong (1K amplitude) and weak (0.01K amplitude) perturbations, with faster growth after sunrise found only for the weaker perturbations. However, the overall perturbation growth (as measured by the root-mean-square error of accumulated precipitation) reaches similar values at saturation, regardless of the perturbation characterisation.

An interpretation of baroclinic initial value problems: results for simple basic states with nonzero interior PV gradients

In the Eady model, where the meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is zero, perturbation energy growth can be partitioned cleanly into three mechanisms: (i) shear instability, (ii) resonance, and (iii) the Orr mechanism. Shear instability involves two-way interaction between Rossby edge waves on the ground and lid, resonance occurs as interior PV anomalies excite the edge waves, and the Orr mechanism involves only interior PV anomalies. These mechanisms have distinct implications for the structural and temporal linear evolution of perturbations. Here, a new framework is developed in which the same mechanisms can be distinguished for growth on basic states with nonzero interior PV gradients. It is further shown that the evolution from quite general initial conditions can be accurately described (peak error in perturbation total energy typically less than 10%) by a reduced system that involves only three Rossby wave components. Two of these are counterpropagating Rossby waves—that is, generalizations of the Rossby edge waves when the interior PV gradient is nonzero—whereas the other component depends on the structure of the initial condition and its PV is advected passively with the shear flow. In the cases considered, the three-component model outperforms approximate solutions based on truncating a modal or singular vector basis.

Understanding African easterly waves: a moist singular vector approach

Moist singular vectors (MSV) have been applied successfully to predicting mid-latitude storms growing in association with latent heat of condensation. Tropical cyclone sensitivity has also been assessed. Extending this approach to more general tropical weather systems here, MSVs are evaluated for understanding and predicting African easterly waves, given the importance of moist processes in their development. First results, without initial moisture perturbations, suggest MSVs may be used advantageously. Perturbations bear similar structural and energy profiles to previous idealised non-linear studies and observations. Strong sensitivities prevail in the metrics and trajectories chosen, and benefits of initial moisture perturbations should be appraised. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Does changing the taxonomical resolution alter the value of soil macroinvertebrates as bioindicators of metal pollution?

Ecological indicators are taxa that are affected by, and indicate effects of, anthropogenic environmental stress or disturbance on ecosystems. There is evidence that some species of soil macrofauna (i.e. diameter > 2 min) constitute valuable biological indicators of certain types of soil perturbations. This study aims to determine which level of taxonomic resolution, (species, family or ecological group) is the best to identify indicator of soil disturbance. Macrofauna were sampled in a set of sites encompassing different land-use systems (e.g. forests, pastures, crops) and different levels of pollution. Indicator taxa were sought using the IndVal index proposed by Dufrene and Legendre [Dufrene, M., Legendre, P., 1997. Species assemblages and indicator species: the need for a flexible asymetrical approach. Ecological Monographs 67, 345-3661. This approach is based on a hierarchical typology of sites. The index value changes along the typology and decreases (increases) for generalist (specialist) faunal units (species, families or ecological groups). Of the 327 morphospecies recorded, 19 were significantly associated with a site type or a group of sites (5.8%). Similarly, species were aggregated to form 59 families among which 17 (28.8%) displayed a significant indicator value. Gathering species into 28 broad ecological assemblages led to 14 indicator groups (50%). Beyond the simple proportion of units having significant association with a given level of the site typology, the proportion of specialist and generalist groups changed dramatically when the level of taxonomic resolution was altered. At the species level 84% of the indicator units were specialist, whereas this proportion decreased to 70 and 43% when families and ecological groups were considered. Because specialist groups are the most interesting type of indicators either in terms of conservation or for management purposes we come to the conclusion that the species level is the most accurate taxonomic level in bioindication studies although it requires a high amount of labour and operator knowledge and is time-consuming. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Use of an artificial root to examine the influence of 8-hydroxyquinoline on soil microbial activity and bacterial community structure

Invasive plant species have been shown to alter the microbial community composition of the soils they invade and it is suggested that this below-ground perturbation of potential pathogens, decomposers or symbionts may feedback positively to allow invasive success. Whether these perturbations are mediated through specific components of root exudation are not understood. We focussed on 8-hydroxyquinoline, a putative allelochemical of Centaurea diffusa (diffuse knapweed) and used an artificial root system to differentiate the effects of 8-hydroxyquinoline against a background of total rhizodeposition as mimicked through supply of a synthetic exudate solution. In soil proximal (0-10 cm) to the artificial root, synthetic exudates had a highly significant (P < 0.001) influence on dehydrogenase, fluorescein diacetate hydrolysis and urease activity. in addition, 8-hydroxyquinoline was significant (p = 0.003) as a main effect on dehydrogenase activity and interacted with synthetic exudates to affect urease activity (p = 0.09). Hierarchical cluster analysis of 16S rDNA-based DGGE band patterns also identified a primary affect of synthetic exudates and a secondary affect of 8-hydroxyquinoline on bacterial community structure. Thus, we show that the artificial rhizosphere produced by the synthetic exudates was the predominant effect, but, that the influence of the 8-hydroxyquinoline signal on the activity and structure of soil microbial communities could also be detected. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying carbon-cycle feedbacks

Perturbations to the carbon cycle could constitute large feedbacks on future changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. This paper demonstrates how carbon cycle feedback can be expressed in formally similar ways to climate feedback, and thus compares their magnitudes. The carbon cycle gives rise to two climate feedback terms: the concentration–carbon feedback, resulting from the uptake of carbon by land and ocean as a biogeochemical response to the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the climate–carbon feedback, resulting from the effect of climate change on carbon fluxes. In the earth system models of the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP), climate–carbon feedback on warming is positive and of a similar size to the cloud feedback. The concentration–carbon feedback is negative; it has generally received less attention in the literature, but in magnitude it is 4 times larger than the climate–carbon feedback and more uncertain. The concentration–carbon feedback is the dominant uncertainty in the allowable CO2 emissions that are consistent with a given CO2 concentration scenario. In modeling the climate response to a scenario of CO2 emissions, the net carbon cycle feedback is of comparable size and uncertainty to the noncarbon–climate response. To quantify simulated carbon cycle feedbacks satisfactorily, a radiatively coupled experiment is needed, in addition to the fully coupled and biogeochemically coupled experiments, which are referred to as coupled and uncoupled in C4MIP. The concentration–carbon and climate–carbon feedbacks do not combine linearly, and the concentration–carbon feedback is dependent on scenario and time.