Four essays of environmental risk-mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers' preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers' choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

An interactive environmental site assessment audit for Wagner Creek river basin clean up project

The primary purpose of this thesis was to design and create an Interactive Audit to conduct Environmental Site Assessments according to American Society of Testing Material's (ASTM) Phase I Standards at the Wagner Creek study area. ArcPad and ArcIMS are the major software that were used to create the model and ArcGIS Desktop was used for data analysis and to export shapefile symbology to ArcPad. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is an effective tool to deploy these purposes. This technology was utilized to carry out data collection, data analysis and to display data interactively on the Internet. Electronic forms, customized for mobile devices were used to survey sites. This is an easy and fast way to collect and modify field data. New data such as land use, recognized environmental conditions, and underground storage tanks can be added into existing datasets. An updated map is then generated and uploaded to the Internet using ArcIMS technology. The field investigator has the option to generate and view the Inspection Form at the end of his survey on site, or print a hardcopy at base. The mobile device also automatically generates preliminary editable Executive Reports for any inspected site.

Desenvolvimento e avaliação tribológica de emulsão O/A a partir de óleo vegetal epoxidado para aplicação em fluídos de corte

The cutting fluids are lubricants used in machining processes, because they present many benefits for different processes. They have many functions, such as lubrication, cooling, improvement in surface finishing, besides they decreases the tool wear and protect it against corrosion. Therefore due to new environment laws and demand to green products, new cutting fluids must be development. These shall be biodegradable, non-toxic, safety for environment and operator healthy. Thus, vegetable oils are a good option to solve this problem, replacing the mineral oils. In this context, this work aimed to develop an emulsion cutting fluid from epoxidized vegetable oil, promoting better lubrication and cooling in machining processes, besides being environment friendly. The methodology was divided in five steps: first one was the biolubricant synthesis by epoxidation reaction. Following this, the biolubricant was characterized in terms of density, acidity, iodo index, oxirane index, viscosity, thermal stability and chemical composition. The third step was to develop an emulsion O/A with different oil concentration (10, 20 and 25%) and surfactant concentration (1, 2.5 and 5%). Also, emulsion stability was studied. The emulsion tribological performance were carried out in HFRR (High Frequency Reciprocating Rig), it consists in ball-disc contact. Results showed that the vegetable based lubricant may be synthesized by epoxidationreaction, the spectra showed that there was 100% conversion of the epoxy rings unsaturations. In regard the tribological assessment is observed that the percentage of oil present in the emulsion directly influenced the film formation and coefficient of friction for higher concentrations the film formation process is slow and unstable, and the coefficient of friction. The high concentrations of surfactants have not improved the emulsions tribological performance. The best performance in friction reduction was observed to emulsion with 10% of oil and 5% of surfactant, its average wear scar was 202 μm.

Estudo de simulação de reservatórios para o desenvolvimento de um campo do nordeste brasileiro

In the last 16 years emerged in Brazil a segment of independent producers with focus on onshore basins and shallow waters. Among the challenges of these companies is the development of fields with projects with a low net present value (NPV). The objective of this work was to study the technical-economical best option to develop an oil field in the Brazilian Northeast using reservoir simulation. Real geology, reservoir and production data was used to build the geological and simulation model. Due to not having PVT analysis, distillation method test data known as the true boiling points (TBP) were used to create a fluids model generating the PVT data. After execution of the history match, four development scenarios were simulated: the extrapolation of production without new investments, the conversion of a producing well for immiscible gas injection, the drilling of a vertical well and the drilling of a horizontal well. As a result, from the financial point of view, the gas injection is the alternative with lower added value, but it may be viable if there are environmental or regulatory restrictions to flaring or venting the produced gas into the atmosphere from this field or neighboring accumulations. The recovery factor achieved with the drilling of vertical and horizontal wells is similar, but the horizontal well is a project of production acceleration; therefore, the present incremental cumulative production with a minimum rate of company's attractiveness is higher. Depending on the crude oil Brent price and the drilling cost, this option can be technically and financially viable.

Student independent Projects Environmental Studies 2007: An Environmental Levy for Disposable Cups in NL: A preliminary Investigation

Human ability to impact Planet Earth appears to know no bounds. Adherence to polices of managed resource extraction combined with unbridled consumption, have fostered a disposable culture contributing to mass production of garbage. Eco-taxation may provide the economic tools required to reduce the amount of waste generated. Keys to eco-tax success are vision, education, and flexibility. Success must be measured in societal gains, not simply in monetary terms. Public opinion is initially opposed to consumer charges. Education and viable personal options are crucial to overcome resistance. With one coffee shop dispensing over 800,000 disposable cups annually, an eco-tax is an attractive option to simultaneously raise revenue to waste management programs and reduce one sector of waste production.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

How does family drug treatment court participation affect child welfare outcomes?

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd.Parental substance use is a risk factor for child maltreatment. Family drug treatment courts (FDTCs) have emerged in the United States as a policy option to treat the underlying condition and promote family preservation. This study examines the effectiveness of FDTCs in North Carolina on child welfare outcomes. Data come from North Carolina records from child protection services, court system, and birth records. Three types of parental participation in a FDTC are considered: referral, enrolling, and completing an FDTC. The sample includes 566 children who were placed into foster care and whose parents participated in a FDTC program. Findings indicate that children of parents who were referred but did not enroll or who enrolled but did not complete had longer stays in foster care than children of completers. Reunification rates for children of completers were also higher. Outcomes for children in the referred and enrolled groups did not differ in the multivariate analyses. While effective substance use treatment services for parents may help preserve families, future research should examine factors for improving participation and completion rates as well as factors involved in scaling programs so that more families are served.

On the Regulation of Small Actors: Three Experimental Essays about Policies based on Voluntary Compliance and Decentralized Monitoring

Monitoring and enforcement are perhaps the biggest challenges in the design and implementation of environmental policies in developing countries where the actions of many small informal actors cause significant impacts on the ecosystem services and where the transaction costs for the state to regulate them could be enormous. This dissertation studies the potential of innovative institutions based on decentralized coordination and enforcement to induce better environmental outcomes. Such policies have in common that the state plays the role of providing the incentives for organization but the process of compliance happens through decentralized agreements, trust building, signaling and monitoring. I draw from the literatures in collective action, common-pool resources, game-theory and non-point source pollution to develop the instruments proposed here. To test the different conditions in which such policies could be implemented I designed two field-experiments that I conducted with small-scale gold miners in the Colombian Pacific and with users and providers of ecosystem services in the states of Veracruz, Quintana Roo and Yucatan in Mexico. This dissertation is organized in three essays.

The first essay, “Collective Incentives for Cleaner Small-Scale Gold Mining on the Frontier: Experimental Tests of Compliance with Group Incentives given Limited State Monitoring”, examines whether collective incentives, i.e. incentives provided to a group conditional on collective compliance, could “outsource” the required local monitoring, i.e. induce group interactions that extend the reach of the state that can observe only aggregate consequences in the context of small-scale gold mining. I employed a framed field-lab experiment in which the miners make decisions regarding mining intensity. The state sets a collective target for an environmental outcome, verifies compliance and provides a group reward for compliance which is split equally among members. Since the target set by the state transforms the situation into a coordination game, outcomes depend on expectations of what others will do. I conducted this experiment with 640 participants in a mining region of the Colombian Pacific and I examine different levels of policy severity and their ordering. The findings of the experiment suggest that such instruments can induce compliance but this regulation involves tradeoffs. For most severe targets – with rewards just above costs – raise gains if successful but can collapse rapidly and completely. In terms of group interactions, better outcomes are found when severity initially is lower suggesting learning.

The second essay, “Collective Compliance can be Efficient and Inequitable: Impacts of Leaders among Small-Scale Gold Miners in Colombia”, explores the channels through which communication help groups to coordinate in presence of collective incentives and whether the reached solutions are equitable or not. Also in the context of small-scale gold mining in the Colombian Pacific, I test the effect of communication in compliance with a collective environmental target. The results suggest that communication, as expected, helps to solve coordination challenges but still some groups reach agreements involving unequal outcomes. By examining the agreements that took place in each group, I observe that the main coordination mechanism was the presence of leaders that help other group members to clarify the situation. Interestingly, leaders not only helped groups to reach efficiency but also played a key role in equity by defining how the costs of compliance would be distributed among group members.

The third essay, “Creating Local PES Institutions and Increasing Impacts of PES in Mexico: A real-Time Watershed-Level Framed Field Experiment on Coordination and Conditionality”, considers the creation of a local payments for ecosystem services (PES) mechanism as an assurance game that requires the coordination between two groups of participants: upstream and downstream. Based on this assurance interaction, I explore the effect of allowing peer-sanctions on upstream behavior in the functioning of the mechanism. This field-lab experiment was implemented in three real cases of the Mexican Fondos Concurrentes (matching funds) program in the states of Veracruz, Quintana Roo and Yucatan, where 240 real users and 240 real providers of hydrological services were recruited and interacted with each other in real time. The experimental results suggest that initial trust-game behaviors align with participants’ perceptions and predicts baseline giving in assurance game. For upstream providers, i.e. those who get sanctioned, the threat and the use of sanctions increase contributions. Downstream users contribute less when offered the option to sanction – as if that option signal an uncooperative upstream – then the contributions rise in line with the complementarity in payments of the assurance game.

Reduction of salt in yeasted wheat bread: impact on bread quality and solutions using sourdough fermented by functional lactic acid bacteria strains

The dietary intake of sodium chloride has increased considerably over the last few decades due to changes in the human diet. This higher intake has been linked to a number of diseases including hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases. Numerous international health agencies, as well as the food industry, have now recommended a salt intake level of 5-6 g daily, approximately half of the average current daily intake level. Cereal products, and in particular bread, are a major source of salt in the Western diet. Therefore, any reduction in the level of salt in bread could have a major impact on global health. However, salt is a critical ingredient in bread production, and its reduction can have a deleterious effect on the production process as well as on the final bread quality characteristics such as shelf-life, bread volume and sensory characteristics, all deviating from the bakers’ and consumers’ expectations. This work addresses the feasibility of NaCl reduction in wheat bread focusing on options to compensate NaCl with the use of functional sourdoughs. Three strains were used for the application of low-salt bread; L. amylovorus DSM19280, W. cibaria MG1 and L. reuteri FF2hh2. The multifunctional strain L. reuteri FF2hh2 was tested the first time and its application could be demonstrated successfully. The functionalities were based on the production of exopolysaccharides as well as the production of antifungal compounds. While the exopolysaccharides, mainly high molecular dextrans, positively influenced mainly bread loaf volume, crumb structure and staling rate, the strains producing antifungal compounds prolonged the microbial shelf life significantly and compensated the lack of salt. The impact on the sensory characteristics of bread were evaluated by descriptive sensory evaluation. The increase in surface area as well as the presence of organic acids impacted significantly on the flavour profile of the sourdough bread samples. The flavour attribute “salt” could be enhanced by sourdough addition and increased the salty perception. Furthermore, a trained sensory panel evaluated for the first time the impact of yeast activity, based on different salt and yeast concentrations, on the volatile aroma profile of bread crumb samples. The analytical measurements using high resolution gas chromatography and proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS) resulted in significantly different results based on different yeast activities. Nevertheless, the extent of the result could not be recognised by the sensory panel analysing the odour profile of the bread crumb samples. Hence, the consumer cannot recognised low-salt bread by its odour. The use of sourdough is a natural option to overcome the broad range of technological issues caused by salt reduction and also a more popular alternative compared to existing chemical salt replacers.

How Good Am I? Crude Self-Assessment vs. Examination

With the new academic year structure encouraging more in-term assessment to replace end-of-year examinations one of the problems we face is assessing students and keeping track of individual student learning without overloading the students and staff with excessive assessment burdens.
In the School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, we have constructed a system that allows students to self-assess their capability on a simple Yes/No/Don’t Know scale against fine grained learning outcomes for a module. As the term progresses students update their record as appropriately, including selecting a Learnt option to reflect improvements they have gained as part of their studies.
In the system each of the learning outcomes are linked to the relevant teaching session (lectures and labs) and to online resources that students can access at any time. Students can structure their own learning experience to their needs and preferences in order to attain the learning outcomes.
The system keeps a history of the student’s record, allowing the lecturer to observe how the students’ abilities progress over the term and to compare it to assessment results. The system also keeps of any of the resource links that student has clicked on and the related learning outcome.
The initial work is comparing the accuracy of the student self-assessments with their performance in the related questions in the traditional end-of-year examination.

Einsatz faser- bzw. textilverstärkter Verbundwerkstoffe

Die hohen Leistungsansprüche an moderne Lagersysteme führen zu immer kürzeren Taktzeiten beim Warenumschlag, die auch von Regalbediengeräten (RBG) realisiert werden müssen. Um trotz der kurzen Umschlagzeiten eine schnelle und sichere Gutübergabe zu gewährleisten, muss innerhalb der Ausschwingzeit die Amplitude der Schwingungen des Lastaufnahmemittels vor dem Ein- beziehungsweise Auslagerungsvorgang weitgehend abgeklungen sein. Diese Wartezeiten beeinflussen die Taktzeit und damit die Umschlagleistung des RBG negativ. Ein möglicher Ansatz, die Ausschwingzeiten zu verkürzen, ist der Einsatz hochdämpfender Materialien, wie etwa Verbundwerkstoffe. Durch die erreichte Reduzierung der Schwingungsamplituden bei gleichzeitiger Erhöhung des Leichtbaugrades ist eine deutliche Effizienzsteigerung von RBG zu erwarten.

On Queueinginventory Models – product form solution; reservation, Cancellation and common life time

Queueing theory is the mathematical study of ‘queue’ or ‘waiting lines’ where an item from inventory is provided to the customer on completion of service. A typical queueing system consists of a queue and a server. Customers arrive in the system from outside and join the queue in a certain way. The server picks up customers and serves them according to certain service discipline. Customers leave the system immediately after their service is completed. For queueing systems, queue length, waiting time and busy period are of primary interest to applications. The theory permits the derivation and calculation of several performance measures including the average waiting time in the queue or the system, mean queue length, traffic intensity, the expected number waiting or receiving service, mean busy period, distribution of queue length, and the probability of encountering the system in certain states, such as empty, full, having an available server or having to wait a certain time to be served.

Faktorer som kan påverka företags val mellan K2 och K3 : En jämförelsestudie mellan två branscher

Titel: Faktorer som kan påverka företags val mellan K2 och K3 Författare: Angelica Höglund och Julia Wiman Handledare: Klas Sundberg Bakgrund och problem: Det nya K-regelverket som infördes 1 januari 2014 innebär att mindre onoterade företag idag har valmöjligheten att välja mellan regelverken K2 och K3. För dessa mindre företag är valet av regelverk viktigt då det kommer att påverka företagets räkenskaper. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att studera fördelningen av K2 och K3 för mindre onoterade företag inom två olika branscher, dessa är byggbranschen och juridik,- ekonomi- och konsultbranschen, samt vilka faktorer som kan påverka valet av regelverk. Teori: Studien bygger på två teorier, dessa är positive accounting theory och institutionell teori. Metod: I studien används en kvantitativ forskningsmetod där årsredovisningar har granskats och sammanställts, samt en kvalitativ metod som bygger på fyra semistrukturerade intervjuer där de identifierade faktorerna analyserats utifrån en analysmodell. Resultat och slutsats: Utifrån det empiriska materialet identifierades sju faktorer, dessa var leasing, företagets storlek, rättvisande bild, revisorns påverkan, komponentavskrivning, kostnad/nytta och koncernredovisning. Ovanstående faktorer har kategoriserats och analyserats utifrån PAT och institutionell teori. Förslag till vidare forskning: Ett förslag vore att forska vidare på de identifierade faktorerna för att undersöka i hur stor utsträckning de påverkar företagens beslut. En intressant studie hade även varit att genomföra en fallstudie som utgår från att upprätta en årsredovisning utifrån både K2 och K3 för att studera de skillnader som kan uppkomma.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.