A new chance-constrained maximum capture location problem

The paper presents a new model based on the basic Maximum Capture model,MAXCAP. The New Chance Constrained Maximum Capture modelintroduces astochastic threshold constraint, which recognises the fact that a facilitycan be open only if a minimum level of demand is captured. A metaheuristicbased on MAX MIN ANT system and TABU search procedure is presented tosolve the model. This is the first time that the MAX MIN ANT system isadapted to solve a location problem. Computational experience and anapplication to 55 node network are also presented.

Immigration and the survival of the welfare state

This paper analyzes the political sustainability of the welfare state in a model where immigration policy is also endogenous. In the model, the skills of the native population are affected by immigration and skill accumulation. Moreover, immigrants affect future policies, once they gain the right to vote. The main finding is that the long-run survival of redistributive policies is linked to an immigration policy specifying both skill and quantity restrictions. In particular, in steady state the unskilled majority admits a limited inflow of unskilled immigrants in order to offset growth in the fraction of skilled voters and maintain a high degree of income redistribution.Interestingly, equilibrium immigration policy shifts from unrestricted skilled immigration,when the country is skill-scarce, to restricted unskilled immigration, as the fraction of native skilled workers increases. The analysis also suggests a new set of variables that may help explain international differences in immigration restrictions.

The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account

Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

Technological change and the wealth of nations

We discuss a unified theory of directed technological change and technologyadoption that can shed light on the causes of persistent productivity differencesacross countries. In our model, new technologies are designed in advanced countries and diffuse endogenously to less developed countries. Our framework is richenough to highlight three broad reasons for productivity differences: inappropriatetechnologies, policy-induced barriers to technology adoption, and within-countrymisallocations across sectors due to policy distortions. We also discuss the effectsof two aspects of globalization, trade in goods and migration, on the wealth ofnations through their impact on the direction of technical progress. By doing so,we illustrate some of the equalizing and unequalizing forces of globalization.

The political economy of employment protection

This paper develops a model of job creation and job destruction in agrowing economy with embodied technical progress, that we use toanalyze the political support for employment protection legislationssuch as the ones that are observed in most European countries.We analyze the possibility of Condorcet cycles due to the fact thatworkers about to become unemployed prefer both an increase and areduction in firing costs over the status quo. Despite this problem, we show the existence of local, and sometimes global majority winners.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer job duration. We show that the gains from, and consequently the politicalsupport for employment protection (as defined by maximunjob tenure) are larger, the lower the rate of creative destruction and the largerthe worker's bargaining power. Numerical simulations suggest a hump-shaped response of firing costs to these variables, as well as negative impact of exogeneous turnover on employment protection.

The new Keynesian approach to monetary policy analysis: Lessons and new directions

I discuss several lessons regarding the design and conduct of monetary policy that have emerged out of the New Keynesian research program. Those lessons include the bene.ts of price stability, the gains from commitment about future policies, the importance of nat-ural variables as benchmarks for policy, and the bene.ts of a credible anti-inflationary stance. I also point to one challenge facing NK modelling efforts: the need to come up with relevant sources of policy tradeoffs. A potentially useful approach to meeting that challenge, based on the introduction of real imperfections, is presented.

Comment to "Weak instruments robust tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips curve" by Frank Kleibergen and Sophocles Mavroeidis

I discuss the identifiability of a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve when it is embedded in a small scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Identification problems emerge because not all the structural parameters are recoverable from the semi-structural ones and because the objective functions I consider are poorly behaved. The solution and the moment mappings are responsible for the problems.

Stable sunspot equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy

We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-inadvance constraints and seigniorage-financed government deficits. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is greater than one, there are two steady states, one determinate and the other indeterminate. If the elasticity is less than one, there is a unique steady state, which can be indeterminate. Only in the latter case do there exist sunspot equilibria that are stable under adaptive learning. A sufficient reduction in government purchases can in many cases eliminate the sunspot equilibria while raising consumption/labor taxes even enough to balance the budget may fail to achieve determinacy.

Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baselinetheoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. Wealso characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fightinflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even in the central bank is not trying toinadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider theimplications of frictions such as imperfect information.

New findings regarding return autocorrelation anomalies and the importance of non-trading periods

In this paper, differences in return autocorrelation across weekdays havebeen investigated. Our research provides strong evidence of the importanceon non-trading periods, not only weekends and holidays but also overnightclosings, to explain return autocorrelation anomalies. While stock returnsare highly autocorrelated, specially on Mondays, when daily returns arecomputed on a open-to-close basis, they do not exhibit any significantlevel of autocorrelation. Our results are compatible with theinformation processing hypotheses as an explanation of the weekendeffect.

New method for rearing Spodoptera frugiperda in laboratory shows that larval cannibalism is not obligatory

New method for rearing Spodoptera frugiperda in laboratory shows that larval cannibalism is not obligatory. Here we show, for the first time, that larvae of the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), can be successfully reared in a cohort-based manner with virtually no cannibalism. FAW larvae were reared since the second instar to pupation in rectangular plastic containers containing 40 individuals with a surprisingly ca. 90% larval survivorship. Adult females from the cohort-based method showed fecundity similar to that already reported on literature for larvae reared individually, and fertility higher than 99%, with the advantage of combining economy of time, space and material resources. These findings suggest that the factors affecting cannibalism of FAW larvae in laboratory rearings need to be reevaluated, whilst the new technique also show potential to increase the efficiency of both small and mass FAW rearings.

A new type of internal hernia after laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) is currently the most common bariatric procedure. One of its late complications is the development of internal hernia, which can lead to acute intestinal obstruction or recurrent colicky abdominal pain. The aim of this paper is to present a new, unusual, and so far not reported type of internal hernia. A common computerized database is maintained for all patients undergoing bariatric surgery in our departments. The charts of patients with the diagnosis of internal hernia were reviewed. Three patients were identified who developed acute intestinal obstruction due to an internal hernia located between the jejunojejunostomy and the end of the biliopancreatic limb, directly between two jejunal limbs with no mesentery involved. Another seven patients with intermittent colicky abdominal pain, re-explored for the suspicion of internal hernia, were found to also have an open window of the same location apart from a hernia at one of the typical hernia sites. Since this gap is systematically closed during RYGBP, no other patient has been observed with this problem. Even very small defects can lead to the development of internal hernias after RYGBP. Patients with suggestive symptoms must be explored. Closure of the jejunojejunal defect with nonabsorbable sutures prevents the development of an internal hernia between the jejunal loops at the jejunojejunostomy.

Affordable Housing in Iowa: Meeting New Challenges, 2007

Iowa faces a signifi cant challenge over the next decade. In the words of a recent report, “The state faces the danger of worker and skill gaps that could undermine its businesses, erode the earning power of its workers, and slow its economic growth.” (Iowa Works Campaign, 2006) Iowa’s economic and demographic stability depends on attracting new immigrants and slowing the departure of residents. Eroding housing affordability and quality will make this more difficult. Housing alone cannot solve the problem, but it must be part of the solution. This study examines trends in the state’s major housing markets, analyzes the achievements of housing programs in the recent past, and incorporates input from more than 80 housing experts across the state. The second part of this study (included on the attached CD) analyzes housing’s impact on the economy. We developed three major policy recommendations.

Affordable Housing in Iowa: Meeting New Challenges, 2007

Iowa faces a significant challenge over the next decade. In the words of a recent report, “The state faces the danger of worker and skill gaps that could undermine its businesses, erode the earning power of its workers, and slow its economic growth.” (Iowa Works Campaign, 2006) Iowa’s economic and demographic stability depends on attracting new immigrants and slowing the departure of residents. Eroding housing affordability and quality will make this more difficult. Housing alone cannot solve the problem, but it must be part of the solution. This study examines trends in the state’s major housing markets, analyzes the achievements of housing programs in the recent past, and incorporates input from more than 80 housing experts across the state. The second part of this study (included on the attached CD) analyzes housing’s impact on the economy. We developed three major policy recommendations.