A utilização de uma rede neural artificial para previsão da incidência da malária no município de Cantá, estado de Roraima

INTRODUÇÃO: A malária é uma doença endêmica na Amazônia Legal Brasileira, apresentando riscos diferentes para cada região. O Município de Cantá, no Estado de Roraima, apresentou para todo o período estudado, um dos maiores índices parasitários anuais do Brasil, com valor sempre maior que 50. O presente estudo visa à utilização de uma rede neural artificial para previsão da incidência da malária nesse município, a fim de auxiliar os coordenadores de saúde no planejamento e gestão dos recursos. MÉTODOS: Os dados foram coletados no site do Ministério da Saúde, SIVEP - Malária entre 2003 e 2009. Estruturou-se uma rede neural artificial com três neurônios na camada de entrada, duas camadas intermediárias e uma camada de saída com um neurônio. A função de ativação foi à sigmoide. No treinamento, utilizou-se o método backpropagation, com taxa de aprendizado de 0,05 e momentum 0,01. O critério de parada foi atingir 20.000 ciclos ou uma meta de 0,001. Os dados de 2003 a 2008 foram utilizados para treinamento e validação. Comparam-se os resultados com os de um modelo de regressão logística. RESULTADOS: Os resultados para todos os períodos previstos mostraram-se que as redes neurais artificiais obtiveram um menor erro quadrático médio e erro absoluto quando comparado com o modelo de regressão para o ano de 2009. CONCLUSÕES: A rede neural artificial se mostrou adequada para um sistema de previsão de malária no município estudado, determinando com pequenos erros absolutos os valores preditivos, quando comparados ao modelo de regressão logística e aos valores reais.

Dynamics of Capillaria-hepatica-induced hepatic septal fibrosis in rats

INTRODUCTION: The pathogenesis of septal hepatic fibrosis, induced in rats by Capillaria hepatica infection, was studied with the aid of a large collection of stored paraffin blocks, representative of the different evolutive phases of fibrosis which appeared in 100% of infected rats. METHODS: Studies were conducted involving histology, immunohistochemistry, immunofluorescence and morphometric methods, in order to observe the dynamic behavior of the cellular and matrix components of fibrosis, over a one year period of evolution. RESULTS: Observation verified that septal fibrosis originates from several portal spaces simultaneously. Its origin and progression involve blood vessel proliferation (angiogenesis), multiplication of actin-positive cells (pericytes and myofibroblasts) and progressive collagen deposition. By the end of 4-5 months, a progressive decrease in all these components was observed, when signs of regression of septal fibrosis became more evident over time. CONCLUSIONS: Besides indicating the fundamental role played by angiogenesis in the pathogenesis of fibrosis, these morphological data concerning the dynamics of this C. hepatica experimental model proved to be adequate for future investigations regarding the functional aspects of fibrosis induction, progression and regression.

Nanostructuring silicon probes via electrodeposition: characterization of electrode coatings for acute in vivo neural recordings

Understanding how the brain works will require tools capable of measuring neuron elec-trical activity at a network scale. However, considerable progress is still necessary to reliably increase the number of neurons that are recorded and identified simultaneously with existing mi-croelectrode arrays. This project aims to evaluate how different materials can modify the effi-ciency of signal transfer from the neural tissue to the electrode. Therefore, various coating materials (gold, PEDOT, tungsten oxide and carbon nano-tubes) are characterized in terms of their underlying electrochemical processes and recording ef-ficacy. Iridium electrodes (177-706 μm2) are coated using galvanostatic deposition under different charge densities. By performing electrochemical impedance spectroscopy in phosphate buffered saline it is determined that the impedance modulus at 1 kHz depends on the coating material and decreased up to a maximum of two orders of magnitude for PEDOT (from 1 MΩ to 25 kΩ). The electrodes are furthermore characterized by cyclic voltammetry showing that charge storage capacity is im-proved by one order of magnitude reaching a maximum of 84.1 mC/cm2 for the PEDOT: gold nanoparticles composite (38 times the capacity of the pristine). Neural recording of spontaneous activity within the cortex was performed in anesthetized rodents to evaluate electrode coating performance.

Learning new tricks: Corticostriatal dynamics during novel skill learning

Learning novel actions and skills is a prevalent ability across multiple species and a critical feature for survival and competence in a constantly changing world. Novel actions are generated and learned through a process of trial and error, where an animal explores the environment around itself, generates multiple patterns of behavior and selects the ones that increase the likelihood of positive outcomes. Proper adaptation and execution of the selected behavior requires the coordination of several biomechanical features by the animal. Cortico-basal ganglia circuits and loops are critically involved in the acquisition, learning and consolidation of motor skills.(...)

Firms and aggregate dynamics

We investigate the role of permanent and transitory shocks for firms and aggregate dynamics. We find that permanent shocks to productivity and permanent shifts in the composition of output explain at least four-fifths of firms’ dynamics. However, these permanent shocks are almost uncorrelated across firms and are therefore less relevant for aggregate dynamics. Transitory shocks, on the other hand, are not very important at the firm level,but they account for most of the volatility of aggregate hours and output, because they are significantly correlated across firms. Finally, we try to make some progress on the interpretation of the shocks.

Electromyography function, disability degree, and pain in leprosy patients undergoing neural mobilization treatment

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the neural mobilization technique on electromyography function, disability degree, and pain in patients with leprosy. METHODS: A sample of 56 individuals with leprosy was randomized into an experimental group, composed of 29 individuals undergoing treatment with neural mobilization, and a control group of 27 individuals who underwent conventional treatment. In both groups, the lesions in the lower limbs were treated. In the treatment with neural mobilization, the procedure used was mobilization of the lumbosacral roots and sciatic nerve biased to the peroneal nerve that innervates the anterior tibial muscle, which was evaluated in the electromyography. RESULTS: Analysis of the electromyography function showed a significant increase (p<0.05) in the experimental group in both the right (Δ%=22.1, p=0.013) and the left anterior tibial muscles (Δ%=27.7, p=0.009), compared with the control group pre- and post-test. Analysis of the strength both in the movement of horizontal extension (Δ%right=11.7, p=0.003/Δ%left=27.4, p=0.002) and in the movement of back flexion (Δ%right=31.1; p=0.000/Δ%left=34.7, p=0.000) showed a significant increase (p<0.05) in both the right and the left segments when comparing the experimental group pre- and post-test. The experimental group showed a significant reduction (p=0.000) in pain perception and disability degree when the pre- and post-test were compared and when compared with the control group in the post-test. CONCLUSIONS: Leprosy patients undergoing the technique of neural mobilization had an improvement in electromyography function and muscle strength, reducing disability degree and pain.

Spatial dynamics of urban populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Caxias, State of Maranhão, Brazil

Introduction In this paper, we report the ecology of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Caxias City, located in the eastern part of State of Maranhão, Brazil and highlight its seasonal and geographical distribution by environment. In addition, we discuss natural Leishmania infection and its relationship with visceral leishmaniasis. Methods Between September 2007 and August 2009, the collection of sandflies was performed using Center for Disease Control (CDC) light traps from 15 houses in 5 selected neighborhoods. Results Lutzomyia longipalpis was present in all zones of the city. We also found that Lu. longipalpis was regularly detected both inside and around the house, predominantly in outdoor areas. In urban areas, Lu. longipalpis was present in both the dry and rainy seasons, with a higher density present in the latter. One female specimen of Lu. longipalpis was observed to have natural Leishmania infection. Conclusions The presence of Lu. longipalpis was observed throughout the year during 2 seasonal periods, with a predominance in the rainy season. A low rate of natural Leishmania infection was observed in urban areas during the rainy season.

Schistosomiasis mansoni in urban Northeast Brazil: influence of rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria sp.

Introduction Our objective was to evaluate the influence of rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria in a potential urban focus of schistosomiasis in Aracaju, Brazil, during 2009-2010. Methods Snails were collected monthly and were counted, measured and identified; the level of infection and fecal contamination at the sampling sites was determined; rainfall data were obtained. Results High levels of fecal contamination were observed, and the abundance of Biomphalaria glabrata increased during the rainy and post-rainy seasons. The snails' size was variable, and infected snails were identified independently of rainfall. Conclusions These results provide evidence of anthropogenic and climate interference in an urban focus of schistosomiasis in the Aracaju metropolitan area.

Diversity and dynamics of airborne fungi in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil

Introduction: This study aimed to identify airborne fungi in São Luis, Maranhão, Brazil, to determine the prevalent genera and to correlate these genera with the area and season. Methods: In total, 1,510 colony-forming units (CFUs) of airborne fungi were isolated from the north, south, east and west sides and from the center of the city from January to December 2007. The samples were collected on Petri dishes that were exposed to the fungi by the gravitational method. Results: Twenty genera of fungi were isolated; the most common were Aspergillus (33.5%), Penicillium (18.8%), Cladosporium (14.2%), Curvularia (10.6%) and Fusarium (7.6%). The CFUs of the fungi were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Fungal biological diversity was present all year, without any large seasonal variations but with slight increases in May, August and September. Conclusions: The fungal genera identified in this study were correlated with natural systems and could be useful when evaluating the impact of environmental changes on the region.

Evolutionary dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis genome and identification of molecular patterns of hypothetical protein coding genes

The obligate intracellular bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis is a human pathogen of major public health significance. Strains can be classified into 15 main serovars (A to L3) that preferentially cause ocular infections (A-C), genital infections (D-K) or lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) (L1-L3), but the molecular basis behind their distinct tropism, ecological success and pathogenicity is not welldefined. Most chlamydial research demands culture in eukaryotic cell lines, but it is not known if stains become laboratory adapted. By essentially using genomics and transcriptomics, we aimed to investigate the evolutionary patterns underlying the adaptation of C. trachomatis to the different human tissues, given emphasis to the identification of molecular patterns of genes encoding hypothetical proteins, and to understand the adaptive process behind the C. trachomatis in vivo to in vitro transition. Our results highlight a positive selection-driven evolution of C. trachomatis towards nichespecific adaptation, essentially targeting host-interacting proteins, namely effectors and inclusion membrane proteins, where some of them also displayed niche-specific expression patterns. We also identified potential "ocular-specific" pseudogenes, and pointed out the major gene targets of adaptive mutations associated with LGV infections. We further observed that the in vivo-derived genetic makeup of C. trachomatis is not significantly compromised by its long-term laboratory propagation. In opposition, its introduction in vitro has the potential to affect the phenotype, likely yielding virulence attenuation. In fact, we observed a "genital-specific" rampant inactivation of the virulence gene CT135, which may impact the interpretation of data derived from studies requiring culture. Globally, the findings presented in this Ph.D. thesis contribute for the understanding of C.trachomatis adaptive evolution and provides new insights into the biological role of C. trachomatishypothetical proteins. They also launch research questions for future functional studies aiming toclarify the determinants of tissue tropism, virulence or pathogenic dissimilarities among C. trachomatisstrains.

Factors associated with neural alterations and physical disabilities in patients with leprosy in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil

Introduction Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease that is caused by Mycobacterium leprae. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk factors that are associated with neural alterations and physical disabilities in leprosy patients at the time of diagnosis. Methods A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 155 leprosy patients who participated in a program that aimed to eliminate leprosy from São Luis, State of Maranhão. Results Patients who were 31-45 years of age, were older than 60 years of age or had a partner were more likely to have a disability. Patients with partners were 1.14 times more likely (p = 0.025) to have disabilities of the hands. The frequency of disabilities in the feet among the patients with different clinical forms of leprosy was statistically significant. Conclusions The identification of risk factors that are associated with neural alterations and physical disabilities in leprosy patients is important for diagnosing the disease because this approach enables physicians to plan and prioritize actions for the treatment and monitoring of patients.

US fiscal dynamics in political perspective

Given the importance of fiscal balance for ensuring a sustainable fiscal policy, we conduct an empirical examination of fiscal dynamics in the United States in response to unsustainable budget deviations. We concentrate on the role of political factors, namely the Republican - Democrat presidential divide, in determining the fiscal response to budget disequilibria. Making use of an asymmetric cointegration framework, we explore politically motivated fiscal asymmetries in the US, from Eisenhower to Obama. We conclude that political factors such as the government’s political quadrant and the timing of elections are important determinants of the fiscal response to unsustainable budget deviations.

Fiscal dynamics and electoral behavior in the Eurozone

Abstract: The Stability Growth Pact and the 3% rule did not prevent countries from running large deficits. Countries in the EMU administrate fiscal policies differently, despite the existence of a common quantitative goal. The main focus of this work project is to study differences in the fiscal dynamics of eight EMU countries and assess the role of political variables in shaping those dynamics. We find that elections negatively affect government revenue in Austria, Belgium, Portugal, Spain and Germany. Expenditure, on the other hand, responds positively to incoming elections in Portugal, Italy, France and Netherlands, and negatively in the case of Germany.

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.