A Multi-state model for the analysis of functional decline and mortality of frail elderly patients

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi, que correspon a un projecte de recerca sobre la pèrdua funcional i la mortalitat de persones grans fràgils, és construir un procés de supervivència predictiu que tingui en compte l’evolució funcional i nutricional dels pacients al llarg del temps. En aquest estudi ens enfrontem a l’anàlisi de dades de supervivència i mesures repetides però els mètodes estadístics habituals per al tractament conjunt d’aquest tipus de dades no són apropiats en aquest cas. Com a alternativa utilitzem els models de supervivència multi-estats per avaluar l’associació entre mortalitat i recuperació, o no, dels nivells funcionals i nutricionals considerats normals. Després d’estimar el model i d’identificar els factors pronòstics de mortalitat és possible obtenir un procés predictiu que permet fer prediccions de la supervivència dels pacients en funció de la seva història concreta fins a un determinat moment. Això permet realitzar un pronòstic més precís de cada grup de pacients, la qual cosa pot ser molt útil per als professionals sanitaris a l’hora de prendre decisions clíniques.

Energy policies for rural electrification: a social multi-criteria evaluation approach

In this article, a real-world case- study is presented with two general objectives: to give a clear and simple illustrative example of application of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) in the field of rural renewable energy policies, and to help in understanding to what extent and under which circumstances solar energy is suitable for electrifying isolated farmhouses. In this sense, this study might offer public decision- makers some insight on the conditions that favour the diffusion of renewable energy, in order to help them to design more effective energy policies for rural communities.

Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE)

The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of “Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation” (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our Millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent”. This paper starts from the following main questions: 1. Why “Social” Multi-criteria Evaluation? 2. How such an approach should be developed? The foundations of SMCE are set up by referring to concepts coming from complex system theory and philosophy, such as reflexive complexity, post-normal science and incommensurability. To give some operational guidelines on the application of SMCE basic questions to be answered are: 1. How is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability? 2. How can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability? To answer these questions, by using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from realworld case studies, is the main objective of the present article.

On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static setups. Moreover, high tax rates on income are typically associated with low growth rates as occurs in standard growth models that disregard the tax evasion phenomenon.

Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MUSIASEM): an outline of rationale and theory

This paper presents an outline of rationale and theory of the MuSIASEM scheme (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism). First, three points of the rationale behind our MuSIASEM scheme are discussed: (i) endosomatic and exosomatic metabolism in relation to Georgescu-Roegen’s flow-fund scheme; (2) the bioeconomic analogy of hypercycle and dissipative parts in ecosystems; (3) the dramatic reallocation of human time and land use patterns in various sectors of modern economy. Next, a flow-fund representation of the MUSIASEM scheme on three levels (the whole national level, the paid work sectors level, and the agricultural sector level) is illustrated to look at the structure of the human economy in relation to two primary factors: (i) human time - a fund; and (ii) exosomatic energy - a flow. The three levels representation uses extensive and intensive variables simultaneously. Key conceptual tools of the MuSIASEM scheme - mosaic effects and impredicative loop analysis - are explained using the three level flow-fund representation. Finally, we claim that the MuSIASEM scheme can be seen as a multi-purpose grammar useful to deal with sustainability issues.

Multi-product firms and product variety

The goal of this paper is to study the role of multi-product firms in the market provision of product variety. The analysis is conducted using the spokes model of non-localized competition proposed by Chen and Riordan (2007). Firstly, we show that multi-product firms are at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis single-product firms and can only emerge if economies of scope are sufficiently strong. Secondly, under duopoly product variety may be higher or lower with respect to both the first best and the monopolistically competitive equilibrium. However, within a relevant range of parameter values duopolists drastically restrict their product range in order to relax price competition, and as a result product variety is far below the efficient level.

Multi-phase post-mortem CT angiography: development of a standardized protocol.

The objective of this work was to develop an easily applicable technique and a standardized protocol for high-quality post-mortem angiography. This protocol should (1) increase the radiological interpretation by decreasing artifacts due to the perfusion and by reaching a complete filling of the vascular system and (2) ease and standardize the execution of the examination. To this aim, 45 human corpses were investigated by post-mortem computed tomography (CT) angiography using different perfusion protocols, a modified heart-lung machine and a new contrast agent mixture, specifically developed for post-mortem investigations. The quality of the CT angiographies was evaluated radiologically by observing the filling of the vascular system and assessing the interpretability of the resulting images and by comparing radiological diagnoses to conventional autopsy conclusions. Post-mortem angiography yielded satisfactory results provided that the volumes of the injected contrast agent mixture were high enough to completely fill the vascular system. In order to avoid artifacts due to the post-mortem perfusion, a minimum of three angiographic phases and one native scan had to be performed. These findings were taken into account to develop a protocol for quality post-mortem CT angiography that minimizes the risk of radiological misinterpretation. The proposed protocol is easy applicable in a standardized way and yields high-quality radiologically interpretable visualization of the vascular system in post-mortem investigations.

The Measurement of social polarization in a multi-group context

Polarization indices presented up to now have only focused their attention on the distribution of income/wealth. However, in many circumstances income is not the only relevant dimension that might be the cause of social conflict, so it is very important to have a social polarization index able to cope with alternative dimensions. In this paper we present an axiomatic characterization of one of such indices: it has been obtained as an extension of the (income) polarization measure introduced in Duclos, Esteban and Ray (2004) to a wider domain. It turns out that the axiomatic structure introduced in that paper alone is not appropriate to obtain a fully satisfactory characterization of our measure, so additional axioms are proposed. As a byproduct, we present an alternative axiomatization of the aforementioned income polarization measure.

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs137 activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.

Multi-agent contracting with countervailing incentives and limited liability

We consider a principal who deals with a privately informed agent protected by limited liability in a correlated information setting. The agent's technology is such that the fixed cost declines with the marginal cost (the type), so that countervailing incentives may arise. We show that, with high liability, the first-best outcome can be effected for any type if (1) the fixed cost is non-concave in type, under the contract that yields the smallest feasible loss to the agent; (2) the fixed cost is not very concave in type, under the contract that yields the maximum sustainable loss to the agent. We further show that, with low liability, the first-best outcome is still implemented for a non-degenerate range of types if the fixed cost is less concave in type than some given threshold, which tightens as the liability reduces. The optimal contract entails pooling otherwise.

Reconocimiento de objetos multi-clase basado en descriptores de forma

Este trabajo presenta un sistema para detectar y clasificar objetos binarios según la forma de éstos. En el primer paso del procedimiento, se aplica un filtrado para extraer el contorno del objeto. Con la información de los puntos de forma se obtiene un descriptor BSM con características altamente descriptivas, universales e invariantes. En la segunda fase del sistema se aprende y se clasifica la información del descriptor mediante Adaboost y Códigos Correctores de Errores. Se han usado bases de datos públicas, tanto en escala de grises como en color, para validar la implementación del sistema diseñado. Además, el sistema emplea una interfaz interactiva en la que diferentes métodos de procesamiento de imágenes pueden ser aplicados.

Fusion of Multi-Atlas Segmentations with Spatial Distribution Modeling

In recent years, multi-atlas fusion methods have gainedsignificant attention in medical image segmentation. Inthis paper, we propose a general Markov Random Field(MRF) based framework that can perform edge-preservingsmoothing of the labels at the time of fusing the labelsitself. More specifically, we formulate the label fusionproblem with MRF-based neighborhood priors, as an energyminimization problem containing a unary data term and apairwise smoothness term. We present how the existingfusion methods like majority voting, global weightedvoting and local weighted voting methods can be reframedto profit from the proposed framework, for generatingmore accurate segmentations as well as more contiguoussegmentations by getting rid of holes and islands. Theproposed framework is evaluated for segmenting lymphnodes in 3D head and neck CT images. A comparison ofvarious fusion algorithms is also presented.

Diseño e implementación de un receptor multifrecuencia basado en muestreo paso banda aplicado al sistema Galileo

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo diseñar e implementar un receptor multifrecuencia requerido para aplicaciones Galileo centradas a realizar correcciones de errores y estudios de la ionosfera. Estas características obligan a buscar alternativas respecto los receptores superheterodinos convencionales dado que para éstos los retardos de propagación entre las diferentes bandas de interés son inaceptables. Por ello, se presenta un receptor basado en la técnica de muestreo paso banda, que permite trasladar el espectro mediante el conversor ADC a través de un aliasing intencionado, eliminando así los retardos de propagación entre bandas de interés, dado que todas se albergan en un mismo canal. En este trabajo nos hemos centrado únicamente en las etapas críticas del receptor presentado, siendo éstas la etapa de filtrado y conversión digital. La etapa de filtrado requerirá filtros muy selectivos, ya que el ruido existente fuera de banda se solapará a nuestra banda de interés, degradando la SNR del sistema a medida que tenga más potencia. Esta etapa se ha realizado mediante una estructura duplexora conjuntamente con dos filtros de líneas acopladas. La etapa de conversión se ha realizado fabricando el layout de un conversor comercial, del cual se ha validado el correcto funcionamiento para la aplicación requerida.

A multi-purpose grammar generating a multi-scale integrated analysis of Laos

In this study we propose an application of the MuSIASEM approach which is used to provide an integrated analysis of Laos across different scales. With the term “integrated analysis across scales” we mean the generation of a series of packages of quantitative indicators, characterizing the performance of the socioeconomic activities performed in Laos when considering: (i) different hierarchical levels of organization (farming systems described at the level of household, rural villages, regions of Laos, the whole country level); and (ii) different dimensions of analysis (economic dimension, social dimension, ecological dimension, technical dimension). What is relevant in this application is that the information carried out by these different packages of indicators is integrated in a system of accounting which establishes interlinkages across these indicators. This is a essential feature to study sustainability trade-offs and to build more robust scenarios of possible changes. The multi-scale integrated representation presented in this study is based on secondary data (gathered in a three year EU project – SEAtrans and integrated by other available statistical sources) and it is integrated in GIS, when dealing with the spatial representation of Laos. However, even if we use data referring to Laos, the goal of this study is not that of providing useful information about a practical policy issue of Laos, but rather, to illustrate the possibility of using a multipurpose grammar to produce an integrated set of sustainability indicators at three different levels: (i) local; (ii) meso; (iii) macro level. The technical issue addressed is the simultaneous adoption of two multi-level matrices – one referring to a characterization of human activity over a set of different categories, and another referring to a characterization of land uses over the same set of categories. In this way, it becomes possible to explain the characteristics of Laos (an integrated set of indicators defining the performance of the whole country) in relation to the characteristics of the rural Laos and urban Laos. The characteristics of rural Laos, can be explained using the characteristics of three regions defined within Laos (Northern Laos, Central Laos and Southern Laos), which in turn can be defined (using an analogous package of indicators), starting from the characteristics of three main typologies of farming systems found in the regions.