Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Damage assessment in reinforced concrete flexural members using modal strain energy based method

Damage assessment (damage detection, localization and quantification) in structures and appropriate retrofitting will enable the safe and efficient function of the structures. In this context, many Vibration Based Damage Identification Techniques (VBDIT) have emerged with potential for accurate damage assessment. VBDITs have achieved significant research interest in recent years, mainly due to their non-destructive nature and ability to assess inaccessible and invisible damage locations. Damage Index (DI) methods are also vibration based, but they are not based on the structural model. DI methods are fast and inexpensive compared to the model-based methods and have the ability to automate the damage detection process. DI method analyses the change in vibration response of the structure between two states so that the damage can be identified. Extensive research has been carried out to apply the DI method to assess damage in steel structures. Comparatively, there has been very little research interest in the use of DI methods to assess damage in Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures due to the complexity of simulating the predominant damage type, the flexural crack. Flexural cracks in RC beams distribute non- linearly and propagate along all directions. Secondary cracks extend more rapidly along the longitudinal and transverse directions of a RC structure than propagation of existing cracks in the depth direction due to stress distribution caused by the tensile reinforcement. Simplified damage simulation techniques (such as reductions in the modulus or section depth or use of rotational spring elements) that have been extensively used with research on steel structures, cannot be applied to simulate flexural cracks in RC elements. This highlights a big gap in knowledge and as a consequence VBDITs have not been successfully applied to damage assessment in RC structures. This research will address the above gap in knowledge and will develop and apply a modal strain energy based DI method to assess damage in RC flexural members. Firstly, this research evaluated different damage simulation techniques and recommended an appropriate technique to simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures. The ABAQUS finite element package was used throughout the study with properly validated material models. The damaged plasticity model was recommended as the method which can correctly simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures and was used in the rest of this study. Four different forms of Modal Strain Energy based Damage Indices (MSEDIs) were proposed to improve the damage assessment capability by minimising the numbers and intensities of false alarms. The developed MSEDIs were then used to automate the damage detection process by incorporating programmable algorithms. The developed algorithms have the ability to identify common issues associated with the vibration properties such as mode shifting and phase change. To minimise the effect of noise on the DI calculation process, this research proposed a sequential order of curve fitting technique. Finally, a statistical based damage assessment scheme was proposed to enhance the reliability of the damage assessment results. The proposed techniques were applied to locate damage in RC beams and slabs on girder bridge model to demonstrate their accuracy and efficiency. The outcomes of this research will make a significant contribution to the technical knowledge of VBDIT and will enhance the accuracy of damage assessment in RC structures. The application of the research findings to RC flexural members will enable their safe and efficient performance.

The development of a naturalistic car following model for assessing managed motorway systems' safety effects

This thesis highlights the limitations of the existing car following models to emulate driver behaviour for safety study purposes. It also compares the capabilities of the mainstream car following models emulating driver behaviour precise parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison evaluates the robustness of each car following model for safety metric reproductions. A new car following model, based on the personal space concept and fish school model is proposed to simulate more precise traffic metrics. This new model is capable of reflecting changes in the headway distribution after imposing the speed limit form VSL systems. This research facilitates assessing Intelligent Transportation Systems on motorways, using microscopic simulation.

Locally weighted learning model predictive control for nonlinear and time varying dynamics

This paper proposes an online learning control system that uses the strategy of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach, named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC), is proposed as a solution to learn to control robotic systems with nonlinear and time varying dynamics. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online learning while controlling the joint trajectories of a low cost, three degree of freedom elastic joint robot. The learning performance is investigated in both an initial learning phase, and when the system dynamics change due to a heavy object added to the tool point. The experiment on the real elastic joint robot is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system with and without the object. The results highlight the capability of the learning control system to accommodate the lack of mechanical consistency and linearity in a low cost robot arm.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

NTRUCCA : how to strengthen NTRUEncrypt to chosen-ciphertext security in the standard model

NTRUEncrypt is a fast and practical lattice-based public-key encryption scheme, which has been standardized by IEEE, but until recently, its security analysis relied only on heuristic arguments. Recently, Stehlé and Steinfeld showed that a slight variant (that we call pNE) could be proven to be secure under chosen-plaintext attack (IND-CPA), assuming the hardness of worst-case problems in ideal lattices. We present a variant of pNE called NTRUCCA, that is IND-CCA2 secure in the standard model assuming the hardness of worst-case problems in ideal lattices, and only incurs a constant factor overhead in ciphertext and key length over the pNE scheme. To our knowledge, our result gives the first IND-CCA2 secure variant of NTRUEncrypt in the standard model, based on standard cryptographic assumptions. As an intermediate step, we present a construction for an All-But-One (ABO) lossy trapdoor function from pNE, which may be of independent interest. Our scheme uses the lossy trapdoor function framework of Peikert and Waters, which we generalize to the case of (k − 1)-of-k-correlated input distributions.

Developing Co-operating Legal Knowledge Based Systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work supplements rule-based reasoning with case based reasoning and intelligent information retrieval. This research, specifies an approach to the case based retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object-oriented / rule-based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. Machine learning techniques and a distributed agent architecture are used to help simulate the reasoning process of lawyers. In this paper, we outline our implementation of the hybrid IKBALS II Rule Based Reasoning / Case Based Reasoning system. It makes extensive use of an automated case representation editor and background information.

Deductive, inductive and analogical reasoning in legal decision support systems

In this paper we provide an overview of a number of fundamental reasoning formalisms in artificial intelligence which can and have been used in modelling legal reasoning. We describe deduction, induction and analogical reasoning formalisms, and show how they can be used separately to model legal reasoning. We argue that these formalisms can be used together to model legal reasoning more accurately, and describe a number of attempts to integrate the approaches.

Designing intelligent litigation support tools : The IKBALS perspective

In the legal domain, it is rare to find solutions to problems by simply applying algorithms or invoking deductive rules in some knowledge‐based program. Instead, expert practitioners often supplement domain‐specific knowledge with field experience. This type of expertise is often applied in the form of an analogy. This research proposes to combine both reasoning with precedents and reasoning with statutes and regulations in a way that will enhance the statutory interpretation task. This is being attempted through the integration of database and expert system technologies. Case‐based reasoning is being used to model legal precedents while rule‐based reasoning modules are being used to model the legislation and other types of causal knowledge. It is hoped to generalise these findings and to develop a formal methodology for integrating case‐based databases with rule‐based expert systems in the legal domain.

An MRF based abnormal event detection approach using motion and appearance features

Abnormal event detection has attracted a lot of attention in the computer vision research community during recent years due to the increased focus on automated surveillance systems to improve security in public places. Due to the scarcity of training data and the definition of an abnormality being dependent on context, abnormal event detection is generally formulated as a data-driven approach where activities are modeled in an unsupervised fashion during the training phase. In this work, we use a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to cluster the activities during the training phase, and propose a Gaussian mixture model based Markov random field (GMM-MRF) to estimate the likelihood scores of new videos in the testing phase. Further-more, we propose two new features: optical acceleration, and the histogram of optical flow gradients; to detect the presence of any abnormal objects and speed violations in the scene. We show that our proposed method outperforms other state of the art abnormal event detection algorithms on publicly available UCSD dataset.

Conformational Spread in the Flagellar Motor Switch: A Model Study

The reliable response to weak biological signals requires that they be amplified with fidelity. In E. coli, the flagellar motors that control swimming can switch direction in response to very small changes in the concentration of the signaling protein CheY-P, but how this works is not well understood. A recently proposed allosteric model based on cooperative conformational spread in a ring of identical protomers seems promising as it is able to qualitatively reproduce switching, locked state behavior and Hill coefficient values measured for the rotary motor. In this paper we undertook a comprehensive simulation study to analyze the behavior of this model in detail and made predictions on three experimentally observable quantities: switch time distribution, locked state interval distribution, Hill coefficient of the switch response. We parameterized the model using experimental measurements, finding excellent agreement with published data on motor behavior. Analysis of the simulated switching dynamics revealed a mechanism for chemotactic ultrasensitivity, in which cooperativity is indispensable for realizing both coherent switching and effective amplification. These results showed how cells can combine elements of analog and digital control to produce switches that are simultaneously sensitive and reliable. © 2012 Ma et al.

A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

A dynamic navigation model for unmanned aircraft systems and an application to autonomous front-on environmental sensing and photography using low-cost sensor systems

This paper presents an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) that uses a probabilistic model for autonomous front-on environmental sensing or photography of a target. The system is based on low-cost and readily-available sensor systems in dynamic environments and with the general intent of improving the capabilities of dynamic waypoint-based navigation systems for a low-cost UAS. The behavioural dynamics of target movement for the design of a Kalman filter and Markov model-based prediction algorithm are included. Geometrical concepts and the Haversine formula are applied to the maximum likelihood case in order to make a prediction regarding a future state of a target, thus delivering a new waypoint for autonomous navigation. The results of the application to aerial filming with low-cost UAS are presented, achieving the desired goal of maintained front-on perspective without significant constraint to the route or pace of target movement.

Swarm intelligence-based solver for parameter estimation of laboratory through-diffusion transport of contaminants

Theoretical approaches are of fundamental importance to predict the potential impact of waste disposal facilities on ground water contamination. Appropriate design parameters are generally estimated be fitting theoretical models to data gathered from field monitoring or laboratory experiments. Transient through-diffusion tests are generally conducted in the laboratory to estimate the mass transport parameters of the proposed barrier material. Thes parameters are usually estimated either by approximate eye-fitting calibration or by combining the solution of the direct problem with any available gradient-based techniques. In this work, an automated, gradient-free solver is developed to estimate the mass transport parameters of a transient through-diffusion model. The proposed inverse model uses a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm that is based on the social behavior of animals searching for food sources. The finite difference numerical solution of the forward model is integrated with the PSO algorithm to solve the inverse problem of parameter estimation. The working principle of the new solver is demonstrated and mass transport parameters are estimated from laboratory through-diffusion experimental data. An inverse model based on the standard gradient-based technique is formulated to compare with the proposed solver. A detailed comparative study is carried out between conventional methods and the proposed solver. The present automated technique is found to be very efficient and robust. The mass transport parameters are obtained with great precision.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using simulation modelling: sustainability

Concepts of agricultural sustainability and possible roles of simulation modelling for characterising sustainability were explored by conducting, and reflecting on, a sustainability assessment of rain-fed wheat-based systems in the Middle East and North Africa region. We designed a goal-oriented, model-based framework using the cropping systems model Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). For the assessment, valid (rather than true or false) sustainability goals and indicators were identified for the target system. System-specific vagueness was depicted in sustainability polygons-a system property derived from highly quantitative data-and denoted using descriptive quantifiers. Diagnostic evaluations of alternative tillage practices demonstrated the utility of the framework to quantify key bio-physical and chemical constraints to sustainability. Here, we argue that sustainability is a vague, emergent system property of often wicked complexity that arises out of more fundamental elements and processes. A 'wicked concept of sustainability' acknowledges the breadth of the human experience of sustainability, which cannot be internalised in a model. To achieve socially desirable sustainability goals, our model-based approach can inform reflective evaluation processes that connect with the needs and values of agricultural decision-makers. Hence, it can help to frame meaningful discussions, from which actions might emerge.