Otimização de um processo produtivo e formulação de um novo produto utilizando ferramentas estatísticas

Na tentativa de se otimizar o processo de fabrico associado a uma tinta base aquosa (TBA), para minimizar os desvios de viscosidade final verificados, e de desenvolver um novo adjuvante plastificante para betão, recorreu-se a métodos e ferramentas estatísticas para a concretização do projeto. Relativamente à TBA, procedeu-se numa primeira fase a um acompanhamento do processo de fabrico, a fim de se obter todos os dados mais relevantes que poderiam influenciar a viscosidade final da tinta. Através de uma análise de capacidade ao parâmetro viscosidade, verificou-se que esta não estava sempre dentro das especificações do cliente, sendo o cpk do processo inferior a 1. O acompanhamento do processo resultou na escolha de 4 fatores, que culminou na realização de um plano fatorial 24. Após a realização dos ensaios, efetuou-se uma análise de regressão a um modelo de primeira ordem, não tendo sido esta significativa, o que implicou a realização de mais 8 ensaios nos pontos axiais. Com arealização de uma regressão passo-a-passo, obteve-se uma aproximação viável a um modelo de segunda ordem, que culminou na obtenção dos melhores níveis para os 4 fatores que garantem que a resposta viscosidade se situa no ponto médio do intervalo de especificação (1400 mPa.s). Quanto ao adjuvante para betão, o objetivo é o uso de polímeros SIKA ao invés da matériaprima comum neste tipo de produtos, tendo em conta o custo final da formulação. Escolheram-se 3 fatores importantes na formulação do produto (mistura de polímeros, mistura de hidrocarbonetos e % de sólidos), que resultou numa matriz fatorial 23. Os ensaios foram realizados em triplicado, em pasta de cimento, um para cada tipo de cimento mais utilizado em Portugal. Ao efetuar-se a análise estatística de dados obtiveram-se modelos de primeira ordem para cada tipo de cimento. O processo de otimização consistiu em otimizar uma função custo associada à formulação, garantindo sempre uma resposta superior à observada pelo produto considerado padrão. Os resultados foram animadores uma vez que se obteve para os 3 tipos de cimentocustos abaixo do requerido e espalhamento acima do observado pelo padrão.

Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Rat muscle opacity decrease due to the osmosis of a simple mixture

It is known that the fibrous structure of muscle causes light scattering. This phenomenon occurs due to the refractive index discontinuities located between muscle fibers and interstitial fluid. To study the possibility of reducing light scattering inside muscle, we consider its spectral transmittance evolution during an immersion treatment with an optical clearing solution containing ethanol, glycerol, and distilled water. Our methodology consists of registering spectral transmittance of muscle samples while immersed in that solution. With the spectral data collected, we represent the transmittance evolution for some wavelengths during the treatment applied. Additionally, we study the variations that the treatment has caused on the samples regarding tissue refractive index and mass. By analyzing microscopic photographs of tissue cross section, we can also verify changes in the internal arrangement of muscle fibers caused by the immersion treatment. Due to a mathematical model that we develop, we can explain the variations observed in the studied parameters and estimate the amount of optical clearing agent that has diffused into the tissue samples during the immersion treatment. At the end of the study, we observe and explain the improvement in tissue spectral transmittance, which is approximately 65% after 20 min.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus: Efficacy of Photodynamic Therapy Under Conscious Sedation with Inhaled 50% Nitrous Oxide and Oxygen Mixture

Anogenital lichen sclerosus is a chronic, inflammatory, mucocutaneous disorder of significant morbidity. Common symptoms include pruritus, pain, dysuria, and dyspareunia, frequently of difficult control. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) may be an effective therapeutic option in selected cases refractory to first--‐line treatment options. However, procedure--‐related pain is a limiting factor in patient adherence to treatment. Conscious sedation and analgesia with a ready--‐to--‐use gas mixture of nitrous oxide and oxygen is useful in short--‐term procedures. It provides a rapid, effective, and short--‐lived effect, without the need for anesthesiology support. A 75--‐year--‐old woman presented with a highly symptomatic, histologically confirmed vulvar lichen sclerosus, with at least 15 years of evolution. Pain, pruritus, and dysuria were intense and disabling. Treatment with ultrapotent topical corticosteroids proved to be ineffective despite patient compliance. She was then referred for PDT. A total of 3 sessions were performed, held at a mean interval of 9 weeks, and under the analgesic and sedative effect of nitrous oxide/oxygen gas. Response to treatment was evaluated through a daily, self--‐reported pain rating scale. Dysuria remitted completely after the first PDT session. An 80% reduction in pruritus and pain was observed after the third session, and has been sustained for the past six months without further need for topical corticotherapy. Treatment sessions were well tolerated and pain-- free, with no side effects to report. PDT appears to be effective in the symptomatic treatment of vulvar lichen sclerosus. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first case reporting the use of inhaled nitrous oxide/oxygen gas mixture during PDT performed in the genital area. Its analgesic and sedative effects may increase patients’ adherence to this painful procedure. Furthermore, given its safety, it can be easily managed in outpatient clinics by trained dermatologists.

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Development of novel human cellular models for neurotoxicity studies

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

PATHOGENICITY OF Blastocystis sp. TO THE GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT OF MICE: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INOCULUM SIZE AND PERIOD OF INFECTION

The pathogenic potential of Blastocystis sp. in experimental models requires further investigation. In this work, the pathogenicity of this parasite in the gastrointestinal tract of male Swiss mice was evaluated according to the inoculum size and period of infection. Animals were infected intragastrically, with 100, 500, 1,000, 5,000 and 10,000 Blastocystis sp. vacuolar forms obtained from a mixture of eight human isolates cultured axenically in Jones' medium. After seven, 14, 21, 28 and 60 days of infection, the animals were sacrificed and fragments of the small intestine (duodenum), large intestine, and cecum were subjected to histopathological analysis. Blastocystis sp. triggered an inflammatory response in the different tissues analyzed, with a predominance of mononuclear cells. The parasite was found in the muscular layer of the cecum, showing its invasive character. Larger inocula triggered inflammatory processes earlier (seven days) than smaller ones (from 21 days). We conclude that, in the proposed model, the pathogenicity of Blastocystis sp. isolates that were studied is related to inoculum size and period of infection.

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.