Construction Prices : the Market Effect

Teachers of construction economics and estimating have for a long time recognised that there is more to construction pricing than detailed calculation of costs (to the contractor). We always get to the point where we have to say "of course, experience or familiarity of the market is very important and this needs judgement, intuition, etc". Quite how important is the matter in construction pricing is not known and we tend to trivialise its effect. If judgement of the market has a minimal effect, little harm would be done, but if it is really important then some quite serious consequences arise which go well beyond the teaching environment. Major areas of concern for the quantity surveyor are in cost modelling and cost planning - neither of which pay any significant attention to the market effect. There are currently two schools of thought about the market effect issue. The first school is prepared to ignore possible effects until more is known. This may be called the pragmatic school. The second school exists solely to criticise the first school. We will call this the antagonistic school. Neither the pragmatic nor the antagonistic schools seem to be particularly keen to resolve the issue one way or the other. The founder and leader of the antagonistic school is Brian Fine whose paper in 1974 is still the basic text on the subject, and in which he coined the term 'socially acceptable' price to describe what we now recognise as the market effect. Mr Fine's argument was then, and is since, that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' costing and cost estimating process is such that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' cost that it logically leads to a market-orientated pricing approach. Very little factual evidence, however, seems to be available to support these arguments in any conclusive manner. A further, and more important point for the pragmatic school, is that, even if the market effect is as important as Mr Fine believes, there are no indications of how it can be measured, evaluated or predicted. Since 1974 evidence has been accumulating which tends to reinforce the antagonists' view. A review of the literature covering both contractors' and designers' estimates found many references to the use of value judgements in construction pricing (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1985), which supports the antagonistic view in implying the existence of uncertainty overload. The most convincing evidence emerged quite by accident in some research we recently completed with practicing quantity surveyors in estimating accuracy (Skitmore, 1985). In addition to demonstrating that individual quantity surveyors and certain types of buildings had significant effect on estimating accuracy, one surprise result was that only a very small amount of information was used by the most expert surveyors for relatively very accurate estimates. Only the type and size of building, it seemed, was really relevant in determining accuracy. More detailed information about the buildings' specification, and even a sight to the drawings, did not significantly improve their accuracy level. This seemed to offer clear evidence that the constructional aspects of the project were largely irrelevant and that the expert surveyors were somehow tuning in to the market price of the building. The obvious next step is to feed our expert surveyors with more relevant 'market' information in order to assess its effect. The problem with this is that our experts do not seem able to verbalise their requirements in this respect - a common occurrence in research of this nature. The lack of research into the nature of market effects on prices also means the literature provides little of benefit. Hence the need for this study. It was felt that a clearer picture of the nature of construction markets would be obtained in an environment where free enterprise was a truly ideological force. For this reason, the United States of America was chosen for the next stage of our investigations. Several people were interviewed in an informal and unstructured manner to elicit their views on the action of market forces on construction prices. Although a small number of people were involved, they were thought to be reasonably representative of knowledge in construction pricing. They were also very well able to articulate their views. Our initial reaction to the interviews was that our USA subjects held very close views to those held in the UK. However, detailed analysis revealed the existence of remarkably clear and consistent insights that would not have been obtained in the UK. Further evidence was also obtained from literature relating to the subject and some of the interviewees very kindly expanded on their views in later postal correspondence. We have now analysed all the evidence received and, although a great deal is of an anecdotal nature, we feel that our findings enable at least the basic nature of the subject to be understood and that the factors and their interrelationships can now be examined more formally in relation to construction price levels. I must express my gratitude to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Educational Trust and the University of Salford's Department of Civil Engineering for collectively funding this study. My sincere thanks also go to our American participants who freely gave their time and valuable knowledge to us in our enquiries. Finally, I must record my thanks to Tim and Anne for their remarkable ability to produce an intelligible typescript from my unintelligible writing.

Factors affecting marketing decision making with an ethical content : collusive tendering in the construction contract market

Reports of immoral marketing practices i n the construction industry attract political, media and public but not much academic interest. This paper adopts a behavioural perspective and proposes a model for applying marketing ethics concepts and methods in the study of collusion in the construction contract market. An extensive multidisciplinary review of existing literature identified a lack of adequate conceptualisation of the mechanisms and decision making factors of collusive tendering. The process of developing the model is detailed in this paper. The objectives and methodology of the research project that tested the model are also outlined. The paper concludes with a brief note on the contributions and application of the proposed model.

Imputation of female labour market experience : some Australian evidence on the Zabalza and Arrufat method

Recent empirical studies of gender discrimination point to the importance of accurately controlling for accumulated labour market experience. Unfortunately in Australia, most data sets do not include information on actual experience. The current paper using data from the National Social Science Survey 1984, examines the efficacy of imputing female labour market experience via the Zabalza and Arrufat (1985) method. The results suggest that the method provides a more accurate measure of experience than that provided by the traditional Mincer proxy. However, the imputation method is sensitive to the choice of identification restrictions. We suggest a novel alternative to a choice between arbitrary restrictions.

Labor market reform and the changing structure of wage determination in China's state sector during the 1980s

China's market-oriented labor market reform has been in place for about one and a half decades. This study uses individual data for 1981 and 1987 to examine the success of the first half of the reform program. Success is evaluated by examining changes in the wage setting structure in the state-owned sector over the reform period. Have the market reforms stimulated worker incentives by increasing the returns to human capital acquisition? Has the wage structure altered to more closely mimic that of a market economy? In 1987, there is evidence of a structural change in the system of wage determination, with slightly increased rates of return to human capital. However, changes in industrial wage differentials appear to play the dominant role. It is argued that this may be due to labor market reforms, in particular the introduction of the profit related bonus scheme.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 403–421. Australian National University, Canberra, ACT0200, Australia and University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, and University of Aberdeen, Old Aberdeen, Scotland AB24 3QY.

Evaluation in health outcomes research : linking theories, methodologies and practice in health promotion.

Health outcomes research has developed as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of health care interventions and as an approach to informing resource allocation. The use of a health outcomes approach in health promotion has made increasing demands on evaluation methodologies to demonstrate program effectiveness. However, criticism of the contribution of health promotion to outcomes research has made several assumptions about the use of qualitative methodologies and the content of program objectives largely derived from a biomedical approach. In contrast to the measurement of biomedical interventions in clinical health care, health promotion practice involves social phenomena, wide-reaching cultural, psychological, political and ideological problems and issues. The integration of methodologies of health promotion evaluation will inform further conceptualisation of the health outcomes approach with the differentiation of three types of outcomes: health development outcomes; social health outcomes; and biomedical health outcomes. It is concluded that this differentiation moves away from dualist concepts that advocate the replacement of goals and targets with regional and locally based approaches. Rather, the future direction for health promotion evaluation needs to employ a framework that elaborates multiple methodologies and approaches necessary for establishing what relationships exist between morbidity, mortality, health advancement and equity.

International stock market linkages : are overnight returns on the U.S. Market informative?

Based on the theory of international stock market co-movements, this study shows that a profitable trading strategy can be developed. The U.S. market return is considered as overnight information by ordinary investors in the Asian and the European stock markets, and opening prices in local markets reflect the U.S. overnight return. However, smart traders would either judge the impact of overnight information more correctly, or predict unreleased information. Thus, the difference between expected opening prices based on the U.S. return and actual opening prices is counted as smart traders’ prediction power, which is either a buy or a sell signal. Using index futures price data from 12 countries from 2000 to 2011, cumulative returns on the trading strategy are calculated with taking into account transaction costs. The empirical results show that the proposed trading strategy generates higher riskadjusted returns than that of the benchmarks in 12 sample countries. The trading performances for the Asian markets surpass those for the European markets because the U.S. return is the only overnight information for the Asian markets whereas the Asian markets returns are additional information to the European investors.

The knock-on from the knock-off : recent shifts within Australian mass market fashion design practice

Australia's mass market fashion labels have traditionally benefitted from their peripheral location to the world's fashion centres. Operating a season behind, Australian mass market designers and buyers were well-placed to watch trends play out overseas before testing them in the Australian marketplace. For this reason, often a designer's role was to source and oversee the manufacture of 'knock-offs', or close copies of northern hemisphere mass market garments. Both Weller and Walsh have commented on this practice.12 The knock-on effect from this continues to be a cautious, derivative fashion sensibility within Australian mass market fashion design, where any new trend or product is first tested and proved overseas months earlier. However, there is evidence that this is changing. The rapid online dissemination of global fashion trends, coupled with the Australian consumer’s willingness to shop online, has meant that the ‘knock-off’ is less viable. For this reason, a number of mass market companies are moving away from the practice of direct sourcing and are developing product in-house under a northern hemisphere model. This shift is also witnessed in the trend for mass market companies to develop collections in partnership with independent Australian designers. This paper explores the current and potential effects of these shifts within Australian mass market design practice, and discusses how they may impact on both consumers and on the wider culture of Australian fashion.

Towards a theoretical framework for organizational innovation

Being able to innovate has become a critical capability for many contemporary organizations in an effort to sustain their operations in the long run. However, existing innovation models that attempt to guide organizations emphasize different aspects of innovation (e.g., products, services or business models), different stages of innovation (e.g., ideation, implementation or operation) or different skills (e.g., development or crowdsourcing) that are necessary to innovate, in turn creating isolated pockets of understanding about different aspects of innovation. In order to yield more predictable innovation outcomes organizations need to understand what exactly they need to focus on, what capabilities they need to have and what is necessary in order to take an idea to market. This paper aims at constructing a framework for innovation that contributes to this understanding. We will focus on a number of different stages in the innovation process and highlight different types and levels of organizational, technological, individual and process capabilities required to manage the organizational innovation process. Our work offers a comprehensive conceptualization of innovation as a multi-level process model, and provides a range of implications for further empirical and theoretical examination.

Outcomes of an early feeding practices intervention to prevent childhood obesity

Objective Use a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate outcomes of a universal intervention to promote protective feeding practices, which commenced in infancy and aimed to prevent childhood obesity Subjects and Methods The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 (SD=1.0) months at baseline. Mothers were randomly allocated to self-directed access to usual care or to attend two 6-session interactive group education modules that provided anticipatory guidance on early feeding practices. Outcomes were assessed six months after completion of the second information module, 20 months from baseline and when the children were two years old. Maternal feeding practices were self-reported using validated questionnaires and study-developed items. Study-measured child height and weight were used to calculate BMI Z-score. Results Retention at follow-up was 78%. Mothers in the intervention group reported using responsive feeding more frequently on 6/9 subscales and 8/8 items (Ps ≤.03) and overall less ‘controlling feeding practices’ (P<.001). They also more frequently used feeding practices (3/4 items; Ps <.01) likely to enhance food acceptance. No statistically significant differences were noted in anthropometric outcomes (BMI Z-score: P=.11), nor in prevalence of overweight/obesity (control 17.9% vs. intervention 13.8%, P=.23). Conclusions Evaluation of NOURISH at child age two years found that anticipatory guidance on complementary feeding, tailored to developmental stage, increased use by first-time mothers of 'protective' feeding practices that potentially support the development of healthy eating and growth patterns in young children.

From concept to capability : developing design thinking within a professional services firm

Corporate business and management are embracing design thinking for its potential to deliver competitive advantage through helping them be more innovative, differentiate their brands, and bring more customer centric products and services to market (Brown, 2008). As consumers continue to expect more personalisation and customisation from their service providers, the use of design thinking for innovation within organisations is a logical progression. To date however, there is little empirical literature discussing how organisations are setting about integrating design thinking into their culture and innovation practices. This paper is a first step in initiating a scholarly discussion on the integration of design thinking within organisational culture. Deloitte Australia is a large professional services firm employing over 5700 staff in 12 offices across Australia. The company provides a range of services to clients in the areas of audit, tax, financial advisory and consulting. In early 2011 the company made a strategic commitment to introducing design thinking into the organisation’s practices. While it already maintains a strong innovation culture, to date it had largely been operating within an analytical business environment. For Deloitte, design thinking is an opportunity to create better outcomes for the people they serve – both internal and external stakeholders (Brown and Wyatt, 2010). Research was conducted using case study methodology and ethnographic methods from June to September 2011 at the Melbourne Deloitte office. It involved three methods of data collection: semi structured interviews, participant observation and artifact analysis. This paper presents preliminary case study findings of Deloitte’s approach to building awareness and a consistent understanding of design thinking, as well as large scale capability, across the firm. Deloitte’s commitment to transforming its culture to one of design thinking poses significant potential for understanding how design thinking is comprehended, enabled and integrated within a complex organisational environment.

Tournament outcomes and prosocial behaviour

Does participation in a tournament influence prosocial behaviour in subsequent interactions? We designed an experiment to collect data on charitable donations made by participants out of their earnings from a real-effort tournament. We varied the earnings associated with ranks across our treatments thereby allowing us to observe donations by participants who end up at different ranks but have the same earnings. Prior to finding out how well they performed, participants were also asked to report their expected rank. Controlling for differences in effort and earnings, participants who were ranked first donated significantly more than others, supporting the view that positive affect from winning may increase generosity. However, we find that this effect diminishes when the difference between realised and expected ranks are controlled for, lending support to the idea that positive surprise from winning also increases generosity.

Mortality and cost outcomes of elderly trauma patients admitted to intensive care and the general wards of an Australian tertiary referral hospital

Mortality and cost outcomes of elderly intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients were characterised in a retrospective cohort study from an Australian tertiary ICU. Trauma patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2005 were grouped into three major age categories: aged ≥65 years admitted into ICU (n=272); aged ≥65 years admitted into general ward (n=610) and aged <65 years admitted into ICU (n=1617). Hospital mortality predictors were characterised as odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression. The impact of predictor variables on (log) total hospital-stay costs was determined using least squares regression. An alternate treatment-effects regression model estimated the mortality cost-effect as an endogenous variable. Mortality predictors (P ≤0.0001, comparator: ICU ≥65 years, ventilated) were: ICU <65 not-ventilated (OR 0.014); ICU <65 ventilated (OR 0.090); ICU age ≥65 not-ventilated (OR 0.061) and ward ≥65 (OR 0.086); increasing injury severity score and increased Charlson comorbidity index of 1 and 2, compared with zero (OR 2.21 [1.40 to 3.48] and OR 2.57 [1.45 to 4.55]). The raw mean daily ICU and hospital costs in A$ 2005 (US$) for age <65 and ≥65 to ICU, and ≥65 to the ward were; for year 2000: ICU, $2717 (1462) and $2777 (1494); hospital, $1837 (988) and $1590 (855); ward $933 (502); for year 2005: ICU, $3202 (2393) and $3086 (2307); hospital, $1938 (1449) and $1914 (1431); ward $1180 (882). Cost increments were predicted by age ≥65 and ICU admission, increasing injury severity score, mechanical ventilation, Charlson comorbidity index increments and hospital survival. Mortalitycost-effect was estimated at -63% by least squares regression and -82% by treatment-effects regression model. Patient demographic factors, injury severity and its consequences predict both cost and survival in trauma. The cost mortality effect was biased upwards by conventional least squares regression estimation.

The effectiveness of non-pharmacologic interventions in improving psychological outcomes for heart transplant recipients : a systematic review

Background The International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation recommended in 2006 that intervention studies to maximize psychological outcomes after transplantation should be conducted. Potentially, studies reporting on the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions in improving psychological outcomes for heart transplant recipients may have been published since the call for this research. Thus, further evidence may currently be available to inform policy and practice decision-making regarding the implementation of such interventions. Accordingly, an evaluation of the evidence is required. Objectives The objective of this review was to identify the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions on psychological outcomes for heart transplant recipients.