The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Research and teaching: a holy or an unholy alliance?

Much of the self-image of the Western university hangs on the idea that research and teaching are intimately connected. The central axiom here is that research and teaching are mutually supportive of each other. An institution lacking such a set of relationships between research and teaching falls short of what it means to be a university. This set of beliefs raises certain questions: Is it the case that the presence of such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is a necessary condition of the fulfilment of the idea of the university? (A conceptual question). And is it true that, in practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching characterises universities? (An empirical question). In my talk, I want to explore these matters in a critical vein. I shall suggest that: a) In practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is in jeopardy. Far from supporting each other, very often research and teaching contend against each other. Research and teaching are becoming two separate ideologies, with their own interest structures. b) Historically, the supposed tight link between research and teaching is both of recent origin and far from universally achieved in universities. Institutional separateness between research and teaching is and has been evident, both across institutions and even across departments in the same institution. c) Conceptually, research and teaching are different activities: each is complex and neither is reducible to the other. In theory, therefore, research and teaching may be said to constitute a holy alliance but in practice, we see more of an unholy alliance. If, then, in an ideal world, a positive relationship between research and teaching is still a worthwhile goal, how might it be construed and worked for? Seeing research and teaching as two discrete and unified sets of activity is now inadequate. Much better is a construal of research and teaching as themselves complexes, as intermingling pools of activity helping to form the liquid university that is emerging today. On this view, research and teaching are fluid spaces, ever on the move, taking up new shapes, and themselves dividing and reforming, as the university reworks its own destiny in modern society. On such a perspective, working out a productive relationship between research and teaching is a complex project. This is an alliance that is neither holy nor unholy. It is an uneasy alliance, with temporary accommodations and continuous new possibilities.

Estudi i anàlisi de la violència i els joves que es troben en disposició dels serveis judicials

Aquest treball tracta sobre la violència. Específicament sobre el que els joves entre 14 i 23 anys en pensen. Socialment la violència s’associa al fet de ser home. Per tant, podem pensar que per demostrar la seva virilitat molts homes joves la poden utilitzar. Però, què passa en el cas de les joves? Per què la violència continua sent una eina no de supervivència sinó d’estil de vida? Com podem entendre aquestes subtileses que de vegades s’escapen a primer cop d’ull? Aquest estudi és ambiciós, però al mateix temps realista. Busquem conèixer, entendre i contribuir a crear línies d’accions que facilitin l’eradicació de la violència. Sabem que amb un sol estudi i de curta durada és impossible, però el que volem és iniciar aquest procés. Per això, aquest estudi utilitza una metodologia variada (IAT, fotointervenció i entrevistes) que ha permès veure la part qualitativa, de vegades oblidada, però que ens permet veure, pel seu caràcter il•lustrador, allò que la simple utilització quantitativa no reflecteix per si mateixa. La població estudiada són joves a disposició judicial, pares i mares, professionals del Servei de Justícia i joves que no es troben en disposició judicial. Els resultats obtinguts posen sobre la taula la convivència de les idees tradicionals sobre el que és ser home, el que és ser dona i el que s’entén per violència, amb el mite d’igualtat i no masclisme. Invita a aprofundir en les raons per continuar mantenint la violència com a forma no sols de resolució de conflicte, sinó com a estil de vida lligat al fet de ser d’un sexe o de l’altre i de caràcter immodificable. Des de les dades obtingudes i la seva anàlisi proposem, en termes generals, la continuïtat de la recerca, la formació sobre sexualitat, gènere, violència, vincles, poder, etc. I activitats cap a la sensibilització.

Scepticism Revisited

Liberalism claims that for a subject S to be justified in believing p, a proposition about the external world, on the basis of his senses it is not necessary to be antecedently justified in believing propositions as there is an external world. On the other hand, conservatism claims that to be justified in believing that p on the basis of one’s perception, one must have antecedent justification to believe that p. Intuitively, we are inclined to think that liberalism about the structure of perceptual justification fits better with our epistemic practices. We acknowledge that, although we cannot produce warrant for the background belief in the external world, our empirical beliefs can be perceptually justified. However, I am interested in arguing that conservatism is theoretically better supported than liberalism. The first reason to defend this is based on the fact that in embracing liberalism dogmatism is affected by pervasive problems. The second one comes from recognizing the strength of the argument based on the thesis that experience is theory-laden. But not all are advantages for conservatism. Conservatism is presupposed in contemporary formulations of scepticism through the requirement of prior justification for background assumptions, and this fact compels anti-sceptical conservatives to conceive a non-evidential form of warrant, entitlement, to contest the sceptical threat My main worry is that, although the path of entitlement has some prospects to succeed, this new notion of justification seems to be posed ad hoc for conservatives to solve the sceptical problem. These contents are organized along the three chapters. The result of chapter 1 is a pattern of sceptical argument formed by two premises: P1*, a conservative principle, and P2*. In chapter 2 and chapter 3 two anti-sceptical proposals against the argument sketched in chapter 1 are described. Chapter 2 is devoted to explain and assess a first anti-sceptical proposal that denies P1*: dogmatism. Moreover, in chapter 3, another anti-sceptical strategy is described (the route of entitlement) that contests scepticism denying the plausibility of P2*.

Is the absence of spiritual well-being at the facit-sp equivalent to spiritual distress in older patients?

Objective: Although initially developed to assess spiritual well-being,the FACIT-Sp is increasingly used to assess the other end of the spectrum,i.e. spiritual distress. This study intends to investigate whether theFACIT-Sp could really contribute to this aim in older patients. Method:Patients (N=135, 81.47.1 years, 68.3% women) aged 65 years and over,with MMSE score>19, admitted consecutively in post-acute rehabilitationwere enrolled. The FACIT-Sp (12 items, score 0 to 48, high spiritualwell-being defined as score_36) was administered and commentswere systematically retrieved. Results: Overall, 32(23.7%) patients hadhigh spiritual well-being. FACIT-Sp internal consistency was good(Cronbach's 0.85) and a confirmatory factorial analysis was consistentwith Meaning and Faith proposed subscales. Qualitative analysisshowed that negative answers (score=0) to "My illness has strengthenedmy faith or spiritual beliefs" (N=76/135) could equally reflect theabsence of impact (49/76, 64.5%) or a negative impact (religious struggle,27/76, 35.5%) of illness on faith. However, former patients had significantlyhigher FACIT-Sp scores than the latter (30.35.6 vs 20.97.9,P<.001). Similarly, among patients (N=73/135) with negative answers(score<3) to "I feel a sense of purpose in my life" those mentioning their"old age" to explain their answer (N=34/73, 46.6%) had higher FACITSpscores than those who did not (26.47.7 vs 22.58.1,P=.02). Conclusion:The FACIT-Sp identifies older people with high spiritual wellbeingbut could underestimate well-being in some older patients. Lowscores on some items could have very different meanings and interpretationof FACIT-Sp global scores below the usual cut-off should becautious.

Changing Religiosity, Changing Politics? The Influence of 'Belonging' and 'Believing' on Political Attitudes in Switzerland

Starting from theories of secularization and of religious individualization, we propose a two-dimensional typology of religiosity and test its impact on political attitudes. Unlike classic conceptions of religiosity used in political studies, our typology simultaneously accounts for an individual's sense of belonging to the church (institutional dimension) and his/her personal religious beliefs (spiritual dimension). Our analysis, based on data from the World Values Survey in Switzerland (1989-2007), shows two main results. First, next to evidence of religious decline, we also find evidence of religious change with an increase in the number of people who "believe without belonging." Second, non-religious individuals and individuals who believe without belonging are significantly more permissive on issues of cultural liberalism than followers of institutionalized forms of religiosity.

The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

The de facto independence of regulatory agencies and its consequences for policy making and regulatory outcomes

This dissertation focuses on the practice of regulatory governance, throughout the study of the functioning of formally independent regulatory agencies (IRAs), with special attention to their de facto independence. The research goals are grounded on a "neo-positivist" (or "reconstructed positivist") position (Hawkesworth 1992; Radaelli 2000b; Sabatier 2000). This perspective starts from the ontological assumption that even if subjective perceptions are constitutive elements of political phenomena, a real world exists beyond any social construction and can, however imperfectly, become the object of scientific inquiry. Epistemologically, it follows that hypothetical-deductive theories with explanatory aims can be tested by employing a proper methodology and set of analytical techniques. It is thus possible to make scientific inferences and general conclusions to a certain extent, according to a Bayesian conception of knowledge, in order to update the prior scientific beliefs in the truth of the related hypotheses (Howson 1998), while acknowledging the fact that the conditions of truth are at least partially subjective and historically determined (Foucault 1988; Kuhn 1970). At the same time, a sceptical position is adopted towards the supposed disjunction between facts and values and the possibility of discovering abstract universal laws in social science. It has been observed that the current version of capitalism corresponds to the golden age of regulation, and that since the 1980s no government activity in OECD countries has grown faster than regulatory functions (Jacobs 1999). Following an apparent paradox, the ongoing dynamics of liberalisation, privatisation, decartelisation, internationalisation, and regional integration hardly led to the crumbling of the state, but instead promoted a wave of regulatory growth in the face of new risks and new opportunities (Vogel 1996). Accordingly, a new order of regulatory capitalism is rising, implying a new division of labour between state and society and entailing the expansion and intensification of regulation (Levi-Faur 2005). The previous order, relying on public ownership and public intervention and/or on sectoral self-regulation by private actors, is being replaced by a more formalised, expert-based, open, and independently regulated model of governance. Independent regulation agencies (IRAs), that is, formally independent administrative agencies with regulatory powers that benefit from public authority delegated from political decision makers, represent the main institutional feature of regulatory governance (Gilardi 2008). IRAs constitute a relatively new technology of regulation in western Europe, at least for certain domains, but they are increasingly widespread across countries and sectors. For instance, independent regulators have been set up for regulating very diverse issues, such as general competition, banking and finance, telecommunications, civil aviation, railway services, food safety, the pharmaceutical industry, electricity, environmental protection, and personal data privacy. Two attributes of IRAs deserve a special mention. On the one hand, they are formally separated from democratic institutions and elected politicians, thus raising normative and empirical concerns about their accountability and legitimacy. On the other hand, some hard questions about their role as political actors are still unaddressed, though, together with regulatory competencies, IRAs often accumulate executive, (quasi-)legislative, and adjudicatory functions, as well as about their performance.

Oncology clinicians' defenses and adherence to communication skills training with simulated patients: an exploratory study.

The aim of this exploratory study was to assess the impact of clinicians' defense mechanisms-defined as self-protective psychological mechanisms triggered by the affective load of the encounter with the patient-on adherence to a communication skills training (CST). The population consisted of oncology clinicians (N = 31) who participated in a CST. An interview with simulated cancer patients was recorded prior and 6 months after CST. Defenses were measured before and after CST and correlated with a prototype of an ideally conducted interview based on the criteria of CST-teachers. Clinicians who used more adaptive defense mechanisms showed better adherence to communication skills after CST than clinicians with less adaptive defenses (F(1, 29) = 5.26, p = 0.03, d = 0.42). Improvement in communication skills after CST seems to depend on the initial levels of defenses of the clinician prior to CST. Implications for practice and training are discussed. Communication has been recognized as a central element of cancer care [1]. Ineffective communication may contribute to patients' confusion, uncertainty, and increased difficulty in asking questions, expressing feelings, and understanding information [2, 3], and may also contribute to clinicians' lack of job satisfaction and emotional burnout [4]. Therefore, communication skills trainings (CST) for oncology clinicians have been widely developed over the last decade. These trainings should increase the skills of clinicians to respond to the patient's needs, and enhance an adequate encounter with the patient with efficient exchange of information [5]. While CSTs show a great diversity with regard to their pedagogic approaches [6, 7], the main elements of CST consist of (1) role play between participants, (2) analysis of videotaped interviews with simulated patients, and (3) interactive case discussion provided by participants. As recently stated in a consensus paper [8], CSTs need to be taught in small groups (up to 10-12 participants) and have a minimal duration of at least 3 days in order to be effective. Several systematic reviews evaluated the impact of CST on clinicians' communication skills [9-11]. Effectiveness of CST can be assessed by two main approaches: participant-based and patient-based outcomes. Measures can be self-reported, but, according to Gysels et al. [10], behavioral assessment of patient-physician interviews [12] is the most objective and reliable method for measuring change after training. Based on 22 studies on participants' outcomes, Merckaert et al. [9] reported an increase of communication skills and participants' satisfaction with training and changes in attitudes and beliefs. The evaluation of CST remains a challenging task and variables mediating skills improvement remain unidentified. We recently thus conducted a study evaluating the impact of CST on clinicians' defenses by comparing the evolution of defenses of clinicians participating in CST with defenses of a control group without training [13]. Defenses are unconscious psychological processes which protect from anxiety or distress. Therefore, they contribute to the individual's adaptation to stress [14]. Perry refers to the term "defensive functioning" to indicate the degree of adaptation linked to the use of a range of specific defenses by an individual, ranging from low defensive functioning when he or she tends to use generally less adaptive defenses (such as projection, denial, or acting out) to high defensive functioning when he or she tends to use generally more adaptive defenses (such as altruism, intellectualization, or introspection) [15, 16]. Although several authors have addressed the emotional difficulties of oncology clinicians when facing patients and their need to preserve themselves [7, 17, 18], no research has yet been conducted on the defenses of clinicians. For example, repeated use of less adaptive defenses, such as denial, may allow the clinician to avoid or reduce distress, but it also diminishes his ability to respond to the patient's emotions, to identify and to respond adequately to his needs, and to foster the therapeutic alliance. Results of the above-mentioned study [13] showed two groups of clinicians: one with a higher defensive functioning and one with a lower defensive functioning prior to CST. After the training, a difference in defensive functioning between clinicians who participated in CST and clinicians of the control group was only showed for clinicians with a higher defensive functioning. Some clinicians may therefore be more responsive to CST than others. To further address this issue, the present study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the level of adherence to an "ideally conducted interview", as defined by the teachers of the CST, and the level of the clinician' defensive functioning. We hypothesized that, after CST, clinicians with a higher defensive functioning show a greater adherence to the "ideally conducted interview" than clinicians with a lower defensive functioning.

Determinants of generic drug substitution in Switzerland.

Background: Since generic drugs have the same therapeutic effect as the original formulation but at generally lower costs, their use should be more heavily promoted. However, a considerable number of barriers to their wider use have been observed in many countries. The present study examines the influence of patients, physicians and certain characteristics of the generics' market on generic substitution in Switzerland.Methods: We used reimbursement claims' data submitted to a large health insurer by insured individuals living in one of Switzerland's three linguistic regions during 2003. All dispensed drugs studied here were substitutable. The outcome (use of a generic or not) was modelled by logistic regression, adjusted for patients' characteristics (gender, age, treatment complexity, substitution groups) and with several variables describing reimbursement incentives (deductible, co-payments) and the generics' market (prices, packaging, co-branded original, number of available generics, etc.).Results: The overall generics' substitution rate for 173,212 dispensed prescriptions was 31%, though this varied considerably across cantons. Poor health status (older patients, complex treatments) was associated with lower generic use. Higher rates were associated with higher out-of-pocket costs, greater price differences between the original and the generic, and with the number of generics on the market, while reformulation and repackaging were associated with lower rates. The substitution rate was 13% lower among hospital physicians. The adoption of the prescribing practices of the canton with the highest substitution rate would increase substitution in other cantons to as much as 26%.Conclusions: Patient health status explained a part of the reluctance to substitute an original formulation by a generic. Economic incentives were efficient, but with a moderate global effect. The huge interregional differences indicated that prescribing behaviours and beliefs are probably the main determinant of generic substitution.

The Media and Socio-Cultural Regulation of Religion

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) Originale, insolite, renaissante, l'action religieuse émergente bouscule les habitudes, ébranle les certitudes, construit ici, maintenant, l'autre monde. Peut-on courir le risque? Voilà que la question se pose et se résout en rumeurs publiques, poursuites judiciaires et tensions scolaires, lesquelles mettent à nu des mécanismes inédits d'institutionnalisation de l'expérience religieuse en modernité. As new religious movements seek to carve out their own niche in society, public controversy and opposing beliefs can spark bitter debates, and can even lead to calls for state intervention. How then do new or borderline religious groups negotiate or mediate the building of public space?

Social Interaction Effects on Fertility: Intentions and Behaviors

The existing literature shows that social interactions in individuals' networks affect their reproductive attitudes and behaviors through three mechanisms: social influence, social learning, and social support. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), an individual based theorization of intentions and behavior used to model fertility, takes these social mechanisms into account. We argue that the TPB already integrates social influence and that it could easily accommodate the two other social network mechanisms. By doing so, the theory would be enriched in two respects. First, it will explain more completely how macro level changes eventually ends in micro level changes in behavioral intentions. Indeed, mechanisms of social influence may explain why changes in representations of parenthood and ideal family size can be slower than changes in socio-economic conditions and institutions. Social learning mechanisms should also be considered, since they are crucial to distinguish who adopts new behavioral beliefs and practices, when change at the macro level finally sinks in. Secondly, relationships are a capital of services that can complement institutional offering (informal child care) as well as a capital of knowledge which help individuals navigate in a complex institutional reality, providing a crucial element to explain heterogeneity in the successful realization of fertility intentions across individuals. We develop specific hypotheses concerning the effect of social interactions on fertility intentions and their realization to conclude with a critical review of the existing surveys suitable to test them and their limits.

Strategy selection during exploratory behavior: sex differences

This study was designed to assess sex-related differences in the selection of an appropriate strategy when facing novelty. A simple visuo-spatial task was used to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty. The exploration task was followed by a visual discrimination task, and the responses were analyzed using signal detection theory. During exploration women selected a local searching strategy in which the metric distance between what is already known and what is unknown was reduced, whereas men adopted a global strategy based on an approximately uniform distribution of choices. Women's exploratory behavior gives rise to a notion of a secure base warranting a sense of safety while men's behavior does not appear to be influenced by risk. This sex-related difference was interpreted as a difference in beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events influencing risk evaluation. Keywords: exploration, spontaneous strategies, sex differences, decision-making.

El Dios en la maleta. Análisis antropológico de las representaciones y prácticas religiosas de los ecuatorianos migrados a Bercelona y Nueva York

Nuestra investigación pretende abordar el estudio de la identidad católica ecuatoriana y su vivencia entre los migrantes residentes en Barcelona y New York. Cuando hablamos de identidad católica, pensamos en un determinado hábitat de sentido (Hannerz) o sistema cultural (Geertz) que satisface la sed de sentido de sus seguidores proveyéndoles de una determinada cosmovisión que éstos perciben como “emocionalmente convincente” (Geertz). A través de nuestra etnografía multisituada, desarrollada en Barcelona (6 meses), New York (6 meses) y Ecuador (3 meses), intentamos definir el tipo de influencia de este referente identitario en la manera de significar la realidad y de actuar de sus portadores, ante la experiencia de la movilidad y del encuentro con la alteridad. Para definir correctamente el influjo de este universo significativo en la experiencia migratoria vamos, paralelamente, a tratar de interpretar su “estructura significativa” (Geertz). En particular, reanudando los estudios propios de la Antropología de las Religiones (y el enfoque geertziano en la dimensión cultural de la religión), analizaremos sus creencias (sus mitos) y sus prácticas (los rituales); interpretándolos simbólicamente y analizando los efectos que estos dos diferentes niveles expresivos del universo católico (ecuatoriano) derraman tanto en la dimensión íntima del creyente, como en la social.

Tractament psicològic del dolor crònic en nens i adolescents

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és que els nens i adolescents amb dolor crònic puguin gaudir d'una millor qualitat de vida. El projecte té dues línies de recerca complementàries. El primer objectiu específic és crear i adaptar instruments per avaluar l’experiència dolorosa a la població infantil. Dues són les mesures que s'han estudiat en escolars: l'escala numèrica verbal (vNRS-11) tant en paper com en format electrònic, i una versió modificada de la versió pediàtrica del Survey of Pain Attitudes (Peds-SOPA). El segon objectiu específic és avaluar els efectes de la teràpia cognitiva (TC) en una mostra de nens de 12 a 18 anys que pateixen dolor crònic. En concret, volem estudiar si algunes característiques personals i familiars dels joves (per exemple, creences relacionades amb la salut, intensitat del dolor, estratègies d'afrontament, expectatives del tractament) estan associades a l'adherència a les recomanacions terapèutiques i, en conseqüència, són variables que afavoreixen la recuperació d’aquests pacients. Un tractament de 10 sessions es porta a terme per aconseguir aquest objectiu. S’ofereix als pacients un conjunt d'habilitats i estratègies específiques per a què puguin exercir un major control dels seus símptomes i reduir l'impacte d'aquests en les seves vides. Els resultats d'aquests estudis seran de gran interès per millorar el maneig del dolor infantil. A més, els resultats determinaran quines són les variables associades amb l’adherència a les prescripcions terapèutiques. Aquest és un tema particularment d’interès pel fet de que un factor determinant de l’èxit clínic és el grau en què una persona s'adhereix a les recomanacions. D'altra banda, el desenvolupament de les mesures de dolor pediàtric és de gran rellevància tant per a clínics com per a investigadors, ja que moltes de les decisions clíniques es basen en allò que el pacient ha informat sobre el seu dolor.