Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates

This paper builds a simple, empirically-verifiable rational expectations model for term structure of nominal interest rates analysis. It solves an stochastic growth model with investment costs and sticky inflation, susceptible to the intervention of the monetary authority following a policy rule. The model predicts several patterns of the term structure which are in accordance to observed empirical facts: (i) pro-cyclical pattern of the level of nominal interest rates; (ii) countercyclical pattern of the term spread; (iii) pro-cyclical pattern of the curvature of the yield curve; (iv) lower predictability of the slope of the middle of the term structure; and (v) negative correlation of changes in real rates and expected inflation at short horizons.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

Maturation and growth curves of Macrobrachium Carcinus (Linnaeus) (Crustacea, Decapoda, Palaemonidae) from Ribeira de Iguape River, southern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Comparison of logistic and neural network models to fit to the egg production curve of White Leghorn hens

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modeling energy utilization in broiler breeders, laying hens and broilers

The factorial approach has been used to partition the energy requirements into maintenance, growth, and production. The coefficients determined for these purposes can be used to elaborate energy requirement models. These models consider the body weight, weight gain, egg production, and environmental temperature to determine the energy requirements for poultry. Predicting daily energy requirement models can help to establish better and more profitable feeding programs for poultry. Studies were conducted at UNESP-Jaboticabal to determine metabolizable energy (ME) requirement models for broiler breeders, laying hens, and broilers. These models were evaluated in performance trials and provided good adjustments. Therefore, they could be used to establish nutritional programs. This review aims to outline the results found at UNESP studies and to show the application of models in nutritional programs for broiler breeders, laying hens, and broilers.

Modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados de serviços em comunicações móveis

In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

Genetic parameters of total milk yield and factors describing the shape of lactation curve in dairy buffaloes

The objective of this study was to apply factor analysis to describe lactation curves in dairy buffaloes in order to estimate the phenotypic and genetic association between common latent factors and cumulative milk yield. A total of 31 257 monthly test-day milk yield records from buffaloes belonging to herds located in the state of São Paulo were used to estimate two common latent factors, which were then analysed in a multi-trait animal model for estimating genetic parameters. Estimates of (co)variance components for the two common latent factors and cumulated 270-d milk yield were obtained by Bayesian inference using a multiple trait animal model. Contemporary group, number of milkings per day (two levels) and age of buffalo cow at calving (linear and quadratic) as covariate were included in the model as fixed effects. The additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects were included as random effects. The first common latent factor (F1) was associated with persistency of lactation and the second common latent factor (F2) with the level of production in early lactation. Heritability estimates for Fl and F2 were 0.12 and 0.07, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between El and F2 with cumulative milk yield were positive and moderate (0.63 and 0.52). Multivariate statistics employing factor analysis allowed the extraction of two variables (latent factors) that described the shape of the lactation curve. It is expected that the response to selection to increase lactation persistency is higher than the response obtained from selecting animals to increase lactation peak. Selection for higher total milk yield would result in a favourable correlated response to increase the level of production in early lactation and the lactation persistency.

Parameterized fast decoupled power flow methods for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems. Part I. Mathematical modeling

The conventional Newton and fast decoupled power flow (FDPF) methods have been considered inadequate to obtain the maximum loading point of power systems due to ill-conditioning problems at and near this critical point. It is well known that the PV and Q-theta decoupling assumptions of the fast decoupled power flow formulation no longer hold in the vicinity of the critical point. Moreover, the Jacobian matrix of the Newton method becomes singular at this point. However, the maximum loading point can be efficiently computed through parameterization techniques of continuation methods. In this paper it is shown that by using either theta or V as a parameter, the new fast decoupled power flow versions (XB and BX) become adequate for the computation of the maximum loading point only with a few small modifications. The possible use of reactive power injection in a selected PV bus (Q(PV)) as continuation parameter (mu) for the computation of the maximum loading point is also shown. A trivial secant predictor, the modified zero-order polynomial which uses the current solution and a fixed increment in the parameter (V, theta, or mu) as an estimate for the next solution, is used in predictor step. These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57 and 118 buses) are presented and discussed in the companion paper. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged. In addition, it is shown that parameters can be switched during the tracing process in order to efficiently determine all the PV curve points with few iterations. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Experimental Aspects of Self-healing Bolted Joint through Shape Memory Alloy Actuators

Bolted joints are a form of mechanical coupling largely used in machinery due to their reliability and low cost. Failure of bolted joints can lead to catastrophic events, such as leaking, train derailments, aircraft crashes, etc. Most of these failures occur due to the reduction of the pre-load, induced by mechanical vibration or human errors in the assembly or maintenance process. This article investigates the application of shape memory alloy (SMA) washers as an actuator to increase the pre-load on loosened bolted joints. The application of SMA washer follows a structural health monitoring procedure to identify a damage (reduction in pre-load) occurrence. In this article, a thermo-mechanical model is presented to predict the final pre-load achieved using this kind of actuator, based on the heat input and SMA washer dimension. This model extends and improves on the previous model of Ghorashi and Inman [2004, "Shape Memory Alloy in Tension and Compression and its Application as Clamping Force Actuator in a Bolted Joint: Part 2 - Modeling," J. Intell. Mater. Syst. Struct., 15:589-600], by eliminating the pre-load term related to nut turning making the system more practical. This complete model is a powerful but complex tool to be used by designers. A novel modeling approach for self-healing bolted joints based on curve fitting of experimental data is presented. The article concludes with an experimental application that leads to a change in joint assembly to increase the system reliability, by removing the ceramic washer component. Further research topics are also suggested.

Bone mineral density of tibae and femura of broiler breeders: growth, development and production

The aim of this study was to follow-up the physiological variations in the development of the bone tissue, associating them with the egg production curve. This study was carried out in the facilities of the Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia of the UNESP, Botucatu, Brazil. Twenty-three families of Ross broiler breeders were used, each family consisting of 13 females and 1 male, distributed in 23 pens of 5.0m² each. The management was that recommended by the genetic company manual (Agroceres Ross, 2003), with daily feeding until 6th week of age; and birds were fed according to a 5:2 schedule (5 days fed, 2 days of fasting) between 7 and 17 weeks of age, returning to daily feeding starting at 18 weeks of age. Birds did not receive afternoon calcium supplementation. on the fourth week of rearing, 84 females were removed for bone analyses of the right tibia and femur, using optical densitometry in radiographic images technique. These analyses were sequentially carried out in 4, 8, 12, 15, 20, 24, 30, 35, 42, 47, and 52 week-old birds. The egg production curve of the birds was followed-up and associated to bone mineral density results. For bone mineral density evaluation (BMD) birds were divided by weight categories as light, intermediate, or heavy within each data age. BMD values of the tibias were not influenced by weight range, but by the age at collection. on the other hand, interactions were found among femur BMD values and weight and age categories. There was no correlation between eggshell quality and femur BMD. A negative correlation (-0.15) was observed between tibia BMD and eggshell percentage. It was possible to conclude that the egg production has little influence on bone mineral density of the birds probably because there was no need of bone mineral mobilization during the production period, since the observed egg production was below that observed under commercial conditions.

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation-driven carbon emissions: the INPE-EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE-EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 similar to Mkm2 in 2004 to 7 similar to Mkm2 in 2010. INPE-EM process-based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non-process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1 in 2009; the non-process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. We conclude that the INPE-EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation-driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.

The effect of Jupiter's mass growth on satellite capture - Retrograde case

Gravitational capture can be used to explain the existence of the irregular satellites of giants planets. However, it is only the first step since the gravitational capture is temporary. Therefore, some kind of non-conservative effect is necessary to to turn the temporary capture into a permanent one. In the present work we study the effects of Jupiter mass growth for the permanent capture of retrograde satellites. An analysis of the zero velocity curves at the Lagrangian point L-1 indicates that mass accretion provides an increase of the confinement region ( delimited by the zero velocity curve, where particles cannot escape from the planet) favoring permanent captures. Adopting the restricted three-body problem, Sun-Jupiter-Particle, we performed numerical simulations backward in time considering the decrease of M-4. We considered initial conditions of the particles to be retrograde, at pericenter, in the region 100 R-4 less than or equal to a less than or equal to 400 R-4 and 0 less than or equal to e < 0.5. The results give Jupiter's mass at the moment when the particle escapes from the planet. Such values are an indication of the necessary conditions that could provide capture. An analysis of these results shows that retrograde satellites would be captured as soon as they get inside the Hills' radius and after that they keep migrating toward the planet while it is growing. For the region where the orbits of the four old retrograde satellites of Jupiter ( Ananke, Carme, Pasiphae and Sinope) are located we found that such satellites could have been permanently captured when Jupiter had between 62% and 93% of its present mass.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Growth rates in modern speleothems from Santana Cave, Brazil, by the Pb-210-method

The Santana Cave is located at the Upper Ribeira Touristic State Park (PETAR-Parque Estadual Turistico do Alto Ribeira) in southern São Paulo State, Brazil. This paper describes Pb-210 activity concentration data in soda straw stalactites samples collected at Salao das Flores in Santana Cave that is a fossil tributary of the cave river. Non-expensive alpha counting following some analytical steps for extracting and depositing Pb-210 were used for providing the Pb-210 data. In the analyzed samples, Pb-210 values of increasingly older samples fitted an exponential curve, thus suggesting that the production of Pb-210 has been constant with time. Also, the near-ideal fit indicated that the growth was uniform and there was no break in the continuous growth. The soda straw growth rates were determined from the best fit to the exponential curve through the Pb-210 activity concentration. The results of the measurements allowed estimate a longitudinal rate corresponding to 1.3 mm/yr and a lateral rate of 0.01 mm/yr, which permitted calculate times of 70 years and 317-498 years for their formation, respectively. The lateral growth rate is compatible with values from studies of chemical weathering rates held under laboratory and natural conditions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of a point sufficiently close to the asymptote in nonlinear growth functions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)