Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

COMMIT: Convex Optimization Modeling for Microstructure Informed Tractography.

Tractography is a class of algorithms aiming at in vivo mapping the major neuronal pathways in the white matter from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. These techniques offer a powerful tool to noninvasively investigate at the macroscopic scale the architecture of the neuronal connections of the brain. However, unfortunately, the reconstructions recovered with existing tractography algorithms are not really quantitative even though diffusion MRI is a quantitative modality by nature. As a matter of fact, several techniques have been proposed in recent years to estimate, at the voxel level, intrinsic microstructural features of the tissue, such as axonal density and diameter, by using multicompartment models. In this paper, we present a novel framework to reestablish the link between tractography and tissue microstructure. Starting from an input set of candidate fiber-tracts, which are estimated from the data using standard fiber-tracking techniques, we model the diffusion MRI signal in each voxel of the image as a linear combination of the restricted and hindered contributions generated in every location of the brain by these candidate tracts. Then, we seek for the global weight of each of them, i.e., the effective contribution or volume, such that they globally fit the measured signal at best. We demonstrate that these weights can be easily recovered by solving a global convex optimization problem and using efficient algorithms. The effectiveness of our approach has been evaluated both on a realistic phantom with known ground-truth and in vivo brain data. Results clearly demonstrate the benefits of the proposed formulation, opening new perspectives for a more quantitative and biologically plausible assessment of the structural connectivity of the brain.

Experimental kinetics of infection induced by Yersinia pseudotuberculosis isolated from stock animals

The course of in vivo infection of five isolates of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis was followed for three weeks in Swiss mice. The strains were isolated from diarrheic and normal feces and mesenteric lymph nodes of healthy and sick stock animals. Four strains of serogroup O:3 and one of serogroup O:1a, with and without the virulence plasmid, were inoculated intragastrically and intravenously in the mice. Groups of five animals were sacrificed at 6 h and 3, 6, 10, 15, and 21 days after inoculation, and organs and tissues were checked for possible macroscopic alterations. Development of infection was monitored at these times by performing viable bacterial counts in homogenates of selected tissues. The animals were cheked daily for clinical alterations. The results of the study showed that strains with the virulence plasmid infected organs and tissues at various times and at varying intensity by both routes of infection, the strain of type O:1a being the most invasive. Moreover, clinical and pathological alterations occurred only in animals inoculated with bacteria carrying the virulence plasmid, regardless of the route of infection.

An introductory review on gravitational-deformation induced structures, fabrics and modeling

Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

Schistosoma mansoni major egg antigen Smp40: molecular modeling and potential immunoreactivity for anti-pathology vaccine development

The pathogenesis of Schistosoma mansoni infection is largely determined by host T-cell mediated immune responses such as the granulomatous response to tissue deposited eggs and subsequent fibrosis. The major egg antigens have a valuable role in desensitizing the CD4+ Th cells that mediate granuloma formation, which may prevent or ameliorate clinical signs of schistosomiasis.S. mansoni major egg antigen Smp40 was expressed and completely purified. It was found that the expressed Smp40 reacts specifically with anti-Smp40 monoclonal antibody in Western blotting. Three-dimensional structure was elucidated based on the similarity of Smp40 with the small heat shock protein coded in the protein database as 1SHS as a template in the molecular modeling. It was figured out that the C-terminal of the Smp40 protein (residues 130 onward) contains two alpha crystallin domains. The fold consists of eight beta strands sandwiched in two sheets forming Greek key. The purified Smp40 was used for in vitro stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients infected with S. mansoni using phytohemagglutinin mitogen as a positive control. The obtained results showed that there is no statistical difference in interferon-g, interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 levels obtained with Smp40 stimulation compared with the control group (P > 0.05 for each). On the other hand, there were significant differences after Smp40 stimulation in IL-5 (P = 0.006) and IL-10 levels (P < 0.001) compared with the control group. Gaining the knowledge by reviewing the literature, it was found that the overall pattern of cytokine profile obtained with Smp40 stimulation is reported to be associated with reduced collagen deposition, decreased fibrosis, and granuloma formation inhibition. This may reflect its future prospect as a leading anti-pathology schistosomal vaccine candidate.

Gender differences in whole-body fat oxidation kinetics during exercise.

Discrepancies appear in studies comparing fat oxidation between men and women. Therefore, this study aimed to quantitatively describe and compare whole-body fat oxidation kinetics between genders during exercise, using a sinusoidal (SIN) model. Twelve men and 11 women matched for age, body mass index, and aerobic fitness (maximal oxygen uptake and maximal power output per kilogram of fat-free mass (FFM)) performed submaximal incremental tests (Incr) with 5-min stages and a 7.5% maximal power output increment on a cycle ergometer. Fat oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry, and plotted as a function of exercise intensity. The SIN model, which includes 3 independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, translation) that account for the main quantitative characteristics of kinetics, was used to mathematically describe fat oxidation kinetics and to determine the intensity (Fatmax) eliciting the maximal fat oxidation (MFO). During Incr, women exhibited greater fat oxidation rates from 35% to 85% maximal oxygen uptake, MFO (6.6 ± 0.9 vs. 4.5 ± 0.3 mg·kg FFM-1·min-1), and Fatmax (58.1% ± 1.9% vs. 50.0% ± 2.7% maximal oxygen uptake) than men (p < 0.05). While men and women showed similar global shapes of fat oxidation kinetics in terms of dilatation and symmetry (p > 0.05), the fat oxidation curve tended to be shifted toward higher exercise intensities in women (rightward translation, p = 0.08). These results support the idea that women have a greater reliance on fat oxidation than men during submaximal exercise, but also indicate that this greater fat oxidation is shifted toward higher exercise intensities in women than in men.

Effect of acute and chronic exercise on fat oxidation and hormonal and plasma metabolite kinetics in obese and severely obese men

Acute exercise increases energy expenditure (EE) during exercise and post-exercise recovery [excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC)] and therefore may be recommended as part of the multidisciplinary management of obesity. Moreover, chronic exercise (training) effectively promotes an increase in insulin sensitivity, which seems to be associated with increased fat oxidation rates (FORs). The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate 1) FORs and extra-muscular factors (hormones and plasma metabolites) that regulate fat metabolism during acute and chronic exercise; and 2) EPOC during acute post-exercise recovery in obese and severely obese men (class II and III). In the first study, we showed that obese and severely obese men present a lower exercise intensity (Fatmax) eliciting maximal fat oxidation and a lower reliance on fat oxidation at high, but not at low and moderate, exercise intensities compared to lean men. This was most likely related to an impaired muscular capacity to oxidize non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) rather than decreased plasma NEFA availability or a change in the hormonal milieu during exercise. In the second study, we developed an accurate maximal incremental test to correctly and simultaneously evaluate aerobic fitness and fat oxidation kinetics during exercise in this population. This test may be used for the prescription of an appropriate exercise training intensity. In the third study, we demonstrated that only 2 wk of exercise training [continuous training at Fatmax and adapted high-intensity interval training (HIIT)], matched with respect to mechanical work, may be effective to improve aerobic fitness, FORs during exercise and insulin sensitivity, which suggest that FORs might be rapidly improved and that adapted HIIT is feasible in this population. The increased FORs concomitant with the lack of changes in lipolysis during exercise suggest an improvement in the mismatching between NEFA availability and oxidation, highlighting the importance of muscular (oxidative capacity) rather than extra-muscular (hormones and plasma metabolites) factors in the regulation of fat metabolism after a training program. In the fourth study, we observed a positive correlation between EE during exercise and EPOC, suggesting that a chronic increase in the volume or intensity of exercise may increase EE during exercise and during recovery. This may have an impact in weight management in obesity. In conclusion, these findings might have practical implications for exercise training prescriptions in order to improve the therapeutic approaches in obesity and severe obesity. -- L'exercice aigu augmente la dépense énergétique (DE) pendant l'exercice et la récupération post-exercice [excès de consommation d'oxygène post-exercise (EPOC)] et peut être utilisé dans la gestion multidisciplinaire de l'obésité. Quant à l'exercice chronique (entraînement), il est efficace pour augmenter la sensibilité à l'insuline, ce qui semble être associé à une amélioration du débit d'oxydation lipidique (DOL). Le but de cette thèse est d'étudier 1) le DOL et les facteurs extra-musculaires (hormones et métabolites plasmatiques) qui régulent le métabolisme lipidique pendant l'exercice aigu et chronique et 2) l'EPOC lors de la récupération aiguë post-exercice chez des hommes obèses et sévèrement obèses (classe II et III). Dans la première étude nous avons montré que les hommes obèses et sévèrement obèses présentent une plus basse intensité d'exercice (Fatmax) correspondant au débit d'oxydation lipidique maximale et un plus bas DOL à hautes, mais pas à faibles et modérées, intensités d'exercice comparé aux sujets normo-poids, ce qui est probablement lié à une incapacité musculaire à oxyder les acides gras non-estérifiés (AGNE) plutôt qu'à une diminution de leur disponibilité ou à un changement du milieu hormonal pendant l'exercice. Dans la deuxième étude nous avons développé un test maximal incrémental pour évaluer simultanément l'aptitude physique aérobie et la cinétique d'oxydation des lipides pendant l'exercice chez cette population. Dans la troisième étude nous avons montré que seulement deux semaines d'entraînement (continu à Fatmax et intermittent à haute intensité), appariés par la charge de travail, sont efficaces pour améliorer l'aptitude physique aérobie, le DOL pendant l'exercice et la sensibilité à l'insuline, ce qui suggère que le DOL peut être rapidement amélioré chez cette population. Ceci, en absence de changements de la lipolyse pendant l'exercice, suggère une amélioration de la balance entre la disponibilité et l'oxydation des AGNE, ce qui souligne l'importance des facteurs musculaires (capacité oxydative) plutôt que extra-musculaires (hormones et métabolites plasmatiques) dans la régulation du métabolisme lipidique après un entraînement. Dans la quatrième étude nous avons observé une corrélation positive entre la DE pendant l'exercice et l'EPOC, ce qui suggère qu'une augmentation chronique du volume ou de l'intensité de l'exercice pourrait augmenter la DE lors de l'exercice et lors de la récupération post-exercice. Ceci pourrait avoir un impact sur la gestion du poids chez cette population. En conclusion, ces résultats pourraient avoir des implications pratiques lors de la prescription des entraînements dans le but d'améliorer les approches thérapeutiques de l'obésité et de l'obésité sévère.

Effect of inspiratory threshold loading on ventilatory kinetics during constant-load exercise.

Humoral factors play an important role in the control of exercise hyperpnea. The role of neuromechanical ventilatory factors, however, is still being investigated. We tested the hypothesis that the afferents of the thoracopulmonary system, and consequently of the neuromechanical ventilatory loop, have an influence on the kinetics of oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide output (VCO2), and ventilation (VE) during moderate intensity exercise. We did this by comparing the ventilatory time constants (tau) of exercise with and without an inspiratory load. Fourteen healthy, trained men (age 22.6 +/- 3.2 yr) performed a continuous incremental cycle exercise test to determine maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max = 55.2 +/- 5.8 ml x min(-1) x kg(-1)). On another day, after unloaded warm-up they performed randomized constant-load tests at 40% of their VO2max for 8 min, one with and the other without an inspiratory threshold load of 15 cmH2O. Ventilatory variables were obtained breath by breath. Phase 2 ventilatory kinetics (VO2, VCO2, and VE) could be described in all cases by a monoexponential function. The bootstrap method revealed small coefficients of variation for the model parameters, indicating an accurate determination for all parameters. Paired Student's t-tests showed that the addition of the inspiratory resistance significantly increased the tau during phase 2 of VO2 (43.1 +/- 8.6 vs. 60.9 +/- 14.1 s; P < 0.001), VCO2 (60.3 +/- 17.6 vs. 84.5 +/- 18.1 s; P < 0.001) and VE (59.4 +/- 16.1 vs. 85.9 +/- 17.1 s; P < 0.001). The average rise in tau was 41.3% for VO2, 40.1% for VCO2, and 44.6% for VE. The tau changes indicated that neuromechanical ventilatory factors play a role in the ventilatory response to moderate exercise.

(.)VO(2) and EMG activity kinetics during moderate and severe constant work rate exercise in trained cyclists.

The purpose of this study was to compare O(2) uptake ((.)VO(2)) and muscle electromyography activity kinetics during moderate and severe exercise to test the hypothesis of progressive recruitment of fast-twitch fibers in the explanation of the VO(2) slow component. After an incremental test to exhaustion, 7 trained cyclists (mean +/- SD, 61.4 +/- 4.2 ml x min(-1) x kg(- 1)) performed several square-wave transitions for 6 min at moderate and severe intensities on a bicycle ergometer. The (.)VO(2) response and the electrical activity (i.e., median power frequency, MDF) of the quadriceps vastus lateralis and vastus medialis of both lower limbs were measured continuously during exercise. After 2 to 3 min of exercise onset, MDF values increased similarly during moderate and severe exercise for almost all muscles whereas a (.)VO(2) slow component occurred during severe exercise. There was no relationship between the increase of MDF values and the magnitude of the (.)VO(2) slow component during the severe exercise. These results suggest that the origin of the slow component may not be due to the progressive recruitment of fast-twitch fibers.

Addition of inspiratory resistance increases the amplitude of the slow component of O2 uptake kinetics.

The contribution of respiratory muscle work to the development of the O(2) consumption (Vo(2)) slow component is a point of controversy because it has been shown that the increased ventilation in hypoxia is not associated with a concomitant increase in Vo(2) slow component. The first purpose of this study was thus to test the hypothesis of a direct relationship between respiratory muscle work and Vo(2) slow component by manipulating inspiratory resistance. Because the conditions for a Vo(2) slow component specific to respiratory muscle can be reached during intense exercise, the second purpose was to determine whether respiratory muscles behave like limb muscles during heavy exercise. Ten trained subjects performed two 8-min constant-load heavy cycling exercises with and without a threshold valve in random order. Vo(2) was measured breath by breath by using a fast gas exchange analyzer, and the Vo(2) response was modeled after removal of the cardiodynamic phase by using two monoexponential functions. As anticipated, when total work was slightly increased with loaded inspiratory resistance, slight increases in base Vo(2), the primary phase amplitude, and peak Vo(2) were noted (14.2%, P < 0.01; 3.5%, P > 0.05; and 8.3%, P < 0.01, respectively). The bootstrap method revealed small coefficients of variation for the model parameter, including the slow-component amplitude and delay (15 and 19%, respectively), indicating an accurate determination for this critical parameter. The amplitude of the Vo(2) slow component displayed a 27% increase from 8.1 +/- 3.6 to 10.3 +/- 3.4 ml. min(-1). kg(-1) (P < 0.01) with the addition of inspiratory resistance. Taken together, this increase and the lack of any differences in minute volume and ventilatory parameters between the two experimental conditions suggest the occurrence of a Vo(2) slow component specific to the respiratory muscles in loaded condition.

Effects of increased intensity of intermittent training in runners with differing VO2 kinetics.

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that athletes having a slower oxygen uptake ( VO(2)) kinetics would benefit more, in terms of time spent near VO(2max), from an increase in the intensity of an intermittent running training (IT). After determination of VO(2max), vVO(2max) (i.e. the minimal velocity associated with VO(2max) in an incremental test) and the time to exhaustion sustained at vVO(2max) ( T(lim)), seven well-trained triathletes performed in random order two IT sessions. The two IT comprised 30-s work intervals at either 100% (IT(100%)) or 105% (IT(105%)) of vVO(2max) with 30-s recovery intervals at 50% of vVO(2max) between each repeat. The parameters of the VO(2) kinetics (td(1), tau(1), A(1), td(2), tau(2), A(2), i.e. time delay, time constant and amplitude of the primary phase and slow component, respectively) during the T(lim) test were modelled with two exponential functions. The highest VO(2) reached was significantly lower ( P<0.01) in IT(100%) run at 19.8 (0.9) km(.)h(-1) [66.2 (4.6) ml(.)min(-1.)kg(-1)] than in IT(105%) run at 20.8 (1.0) km(.)h(-1) [71.1 (4.9) ml(.)min(-1.)kg(-1)] or in the incremental test [71.2 (4.2) ml(.)min(-1.)kg(-1)]. The time sustained above 90% of VO(2max) in IT(105%) [338 (149) s] was significantly higher ( P<0.05) than in IT(100%) [168 (131) s]. The average T(lim) was 244 (39) s, tau(1) was 15.8 (5.9) s and td(2) was 96 (13) s. tau(1) was correlated with the difference in time spent above 90% of VO(2max) ( r=0.91; P<0.01) between IT(105%) and IT(100%). In conclusion, athletes with a slower VO(2) kinetics in a vVO(2max) constant-velocity test benefited more from the 5% rise of IT work intensity, exercising for longer above 90% of VO(2max) when the IT intensity was increased from 100 to 105% of vVO(2max).

Trypanosoma cruzi: blood parasitism kinetics and their correlation with heart parasitism intensity during long-term infection of Beagle dogs

The goals of the present study were to evaluate the kinetics of blood parasitism by examination of fresh blood, blood culture (BC) and PCR assays and their correlation with heart parasitism during two years of infection in Beagle dogs inoculated with the Be-78, Y and ABC Trypanosoma cruzi strains. Our results showed that the parasite or its kDNA is easily detected during the acute phase in all infected animals. On the other hand, a reduced number of positive tests were verified during the chronic phase of the infection. The frequency of positive tests was correlated with T. cruzi strain. The percentage of positive BC and blood PCR performed in samples from animals inoculated with Be-78 and ABC strains were similar and significantly larger in relation to animals infected with the Y strain.Comparison of the positivity of PCR tests performed using blood and heart tissue samples obtained two years after infection showed two different patterns associated with the inoculated T. cruzi strain: (1) high PCR positivity for both blood and tissue was observed in animals infected with Be-78 or ABC strains; (2) lower and higher PCR positivity for the blood and tissue, respectively, was detected in animals infected with Y strains. These data suggest that the sensitivity of BC and blood PCR was T. cruzi strain dependent and, in contrast, the heart tissue PCR revealed higher sensitivity regardless of the parasite stock.

Urokinase receptor (uPAR, CD87) is a platelet receptor important for kinetics and TNF-induced endothelial adhesion in mice.

BACKGROUND: Urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (uPAR, CD87) is a widely distributed 55-kD, glycoprotein I-anchored surface receptor. On binding of its ligand uPA, it is known to increase leukocyte adhesion and traffic. Using genetically deficient mice, we explored the role of uPAR in platelet kinetics and TNF-induced platelet consumption. METHODS AND RESULTS: Anti-uPAR antibody stained platelets from normal (+/+) but not from uPAR-/- mice, as seen by fluorescence-activated cell sorter analysis. 51Cr-labeled platelets from uPAR-/- donors survived longer than those from +/+ donors when injected into a +/+ recipient. Intratracheal TNF injection induced thrombocytopenia and a platelet pulmonary localization, pronounced in +/+ but absent in uPAR-/- mice. Aprotinin, a plasmin inhibitor, decreased TNF-induced thrombocytopenia. TNF injection markedly reduced the survival and increased the pulmonary localization of 51Cr-labeled platelets from +/+ but not from uPAR-/- donors, indicating that it is the platelet uPAR that is critical for their response to TNF. As seen by electron microscopy, TNF injection increased the number of platelets and polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs) in the alveolar capillaries of +/+ mice, whereas in uPAR-/- mice, platelet trapping was insignificant and PMN trapping was slightly reduced. Platelets within alveolar capillaries of TNF-injected mice were activated, as judged from their shape, and this was evident in +/+ but not in uPAR-/- mice. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate for the first time the critical role of platelet uPAR for kinetics as well as for activation and endothelium adhesion associated with inflammation.