Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

The use of presidential executive orders to control the management and administration of the federal government

As long as governmental institutions have existed, efforts have been undertaken to reform them. This research examines a particular strategy, coercive controls, exercised through a particular instrument, executive orders, by a singular reformer, the president of the United States. The presidents studied-- Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, and Clinton--are those whose campaigns for office were characterized to varying degrees as against Washington bureaucracy and for executive reform. Executive order issuance is assessed through an examination of key factors for each president including political party affiliation, levels of political capital, and legislative experience. A classification typology is used to identify the topical dimensions and levels of coerciveness. The portrayal of the federal government is analyzed through examination of public, media, and presidential attention. The results show that executive orders are significant management tools for the president. Executive orders also represent an important component of the transition plans for incoming administrations. The findings indicate that overall, while executive orders have not increased in the aggregate, they are more intrusive and significant. When the factors of political party affiliation, political capital, and legislative experience are examined, it reveals a strong relationship between executive orders and previous executive experience, specifically presidents who served as a state governor prior to winning national election as president. Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton (all former governors) have the highest percent of executive orders focusing on the federal bureaucracy. Additionally, the highest percent of forceful orders were issued by former governors (41.0%) as compared to their presidential counterparts who have not served as governors (19.9%). Secondly, political party affiliation is an important, but not significant, predictor for the use of executive orders. Thirdly, management strategies that provide the president with the greatest level of autonomy--executive orders--redefine the concept of presidential power and autonomous action. Interviews of elite government officials and political observers support the idea that executive orders can provide the president with a successful management strategy, requiring less expenditure of political resources, less risk to political capital, and a way of achieving objectives without depending on an unresponsive Congress. ^

Valued occupational roles and life satisfaction among south Florida HIV-infected and non-infected homosexual males: An exploratory study

A study was conducted in order to describe and understand the occupational role behavior of gay men with particular interest on understanding the impact of an HIV diagnosis on their roles and life satisfaction. A 137-item questionnaire was developed for this study and distributed through various gay community groups in south Florida. The process resulted in ranked description of 24 valued occupational roles of gay men (n = 80) along with a general understanding of potential shifts that may occur in those roles as a result of becoming infected with HIV. The study concludes that a diagnosis of HIV infection impacts gay men both by altering their value for particular roles and by darkening the images they hold of their future. The study also identified key factors which may contribute to the greater life satisfaction of gay men including greater confidence in personal knowledge of HIV, a more optimistic outlook an life, the use of stronger coping styles, and perceiving stronger social support and lower stress. ^

A novel neural network based system for assessing risks associated with information technology security breaches

Security remains a top priority for organizations as their information systems continue to be plagued by security breaches. This dissertation developed a unique approach to assess the security risks associated with information systems based on dynamic neural network architecture. The risks that are considered encompass the production computing environment and the client machine environment. The risks are established as metrics that define how susceptible each of the computing environments is to security breaches. ^ The merit of the approach developed in this dissertation is based on the design and implementation of Artificial Neural Networks to assess the risks in the computing and client machine environments. The datasets that were utilized in the implementation and validation of the model were obtained from business organizations using a web survey tool hosted by Microsoft. This site was designed as a host site for anonymous surveys that were devised specifically as part of this dissertation. Microsoft customers can login to the website and submit their responses to the questionnaire. ^ This work asserted that security in information systems is not dependent exclusively on technology but rather on the triumvirate people, process and technology. The questionnaire and consequently the developed neural network architecture accounted for all three key factors that impact information systems security. ^ As part of the study, a methodology on how to develop, train and validate such a predictive model was devised and successfully deployed. This methodology prescribed how to determine the optimal topology, activation function, and associated parameters for this security based scenario. The assessment of the effects of security breaches to the information systems has traditionally been post-mortem whereas this dissertation provided a predictive solution where organizations can determine how susceptible their environments are to security breaches in a proactive way. ^

The development and testing of a multivariate model of differentiation of self among Hispanics

Individuals of Hispanic origin are the nation's largest minority (13.4%). Therefore, there is a need for models and methods that are culturally appropriate for mental health research with this burgeoning population. This is an especially salient issue when applying family systems theories to Hispanics, who are heavily influenced by family bonds in a way that appears to be different from the more individualistic non-Hispanic White culture. Bowen asserted that his family systems' concept of differentiation of self, which values both individuality and connectedness, could be universally applied. However, there is a paucity of research systematically assessing the applicability of the differentiation of self construct in ethnic minority populations. ^ This dissertation tested a multivariate model of differentiation of self with a Hispanic sample. The manner in which the construct of differentiation of self was being assessed and how accurately it represented this particular ethnic minority group's functioning was examined. Additionally, the proposed model included key contextual variables (e.g., anxiety, relationship satisfaction, attachment and acculturation related variables) which have been shown to be related to the differentiation process. ^ The results from structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses confirmed and extended previous research, and helped to illuminate the complex relationships between key factors that need to be considered in order to better understand individuals with this cultural background. Overall results indicated that the manner in which Hispanic individuals negotiate the boundaries of interconnectedness with a sense of individual expression appears to be different from their non-Hispanic White counterparts in some important ways. These findings illustrate the need for research on Hispanic individuals that provides a more culturally sensitive framework. ^

An incremental multilinear system for human face learning and recognition

This dissertation establishes a novel system for human face learning and recognition based on incremental multilinear Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Most of the existing face recognition systems need training data during the learning process. The system as proposed in this dissertation utilizes an unsupervised or weakly supervised learning approach, in which the learning phase requires a minimal amount of training data. It also overcomes the inability of traditional systems to adapt to the testing phase as the decision process for the newly acquired images continues to rely on that same old training data set. Consequently when a new training set is to be used, the traditional approach will require that the entire eigensystem will have to be generated again. However, as a means to speed up this computational process, the proposed method uses the eigensystem generated from the old training set together with the new images to generate more effectively the new eigensystem in a so-called incremental learning process. In the empirical evaluation phase, there are two key factors that are essential in evaluating the performance of the proposed method: (1) recognition accuracy and (2) computational complexity. In order to establish the most suitable algorithm for this research, a comparative analysis of the best performing methods has been carried out first. The results of the comparative analysis advocated for the initial utilization of the multilinear PCA in our research. As for the consideration of the issue of computational complexity for the subspace update procedure, a novel incremental algorithm, which combines the traditional sequential Karhunen-Loeve (SKL) algorithm with the newly developed incremental modified fast PCA algorithm, was established. In order to utilize the multilinear PCA in the incremental process, a new unfolding method was developed to affix the newly added data at the end of the previous data. The results of the incremental process based on these two methods were obtained to bear out these new theoretical improvements. Some object tracking results using video images are also provided as another challenging task to prove the soundness of this incremental multilinear learning method.

The potential role of plant oxygen and sulphide dynamics in die-off events of the tropical seagrass, Thalassia testudinum

1 Oxygen and sulphide dynamics were examined, using microelectrode techniques, in meristems and rhizomes of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum at three different sites in Florida Bay, and in the laboratory, to evaluate the potential role of internal oxygen variability and sulphide invasion in episodes of sudden die-off. The sites differed with respect to shoot density and sediment composition, with an active die-off occurring at only one of the sites. 2 Meristematic oxygen content followed similar diel patterns at all sites with high oxygen content during the day and hyposaturation relative to the water column during the night. Minimum meristematic oxygen content was recorded around sunrise and varied among sites, with values close to zero at the die-off site. 3 Gaseous sulphide was detected within the sediment at all sites but at different concentrations among sites and within the die-off site. Spontaneous invasion of sulphide into Thalassia rhizomes was recorded at low internal oxygen partial pressure during darkness at the die-off site. 4 A laboratory experiment showed that the internal oxygen dynamics depended on light availability, and hence plant photosynthesis, and on the oxygen content of the water column controlling passive oxygen diffusion from water column to leaves and belowground tissues in the dark. 5 Sulphide invasion only occurred at low internal oxygen content, and the rate of invasion was highly dependent on the oxygen supply to roots and rhizomes. Sulphide was slowly depleted from the tissues when high oxygen partial pressures were re-established through leaf photosynthesis. Coexistence of sulphide and oxygen in the tissues and the slow rate of sulphide depletion suggest that sulphide reoxidation is not biologically mediated within the tissues of Thalassia. 6 Our results support the hypothesis that internal oxygen stress, caused by low water column oxygen content or poor plant performance governed by other environmental factors, allows invasion of sulphide and that the internal plant oxygen and sulphide dynamics potentially are key factors in the episodes of sudden die-off in beds of Thalassia testudinum . Root anoxia followed by sulphide invasion may be a more general mechanism determining the growth and survival of other rooted plants in sulphate-rich aquatic environments.

The role of neighborhood organizations in the production of gentrifiable urban space: The case of Wynwood, Miami's Puerto Rican barrio

Partnerships between government and community-based actors and organizations are considered the hallmark of contemporary governance arrangements for the revitalization and gentrification of economically distressed, inner city areas. This dissertation uses historical, narrative analysis and ethnographic methods to examine the formation, evolution and operation of community-based governance partnerships in the production of gentrifiable urban space in the Wynwood neighborhood of Miami, FL between 1970 and 2010. This research is based on more than four years of participant observation, 60 in-depth interviews with respondents recruited through a purposive snowball sample, review of secondary and archival sources, and descriptive, statistical and GIS analysis. This study examines how different organizations formed in the neighborhood since the 1970s have facilitated the recent gentrification of Wynwood. It reveals specifically how partnerships between neighborhood-based government agencies, nonprofit organizations and real estate developers were constructed to be exclusionary and lead to inequitable economic development outcomes for Wynwood residents. The key factors conditioning these inequalities include both the rationalities of action of the organizations involved and the historical contexts in which their leaders’ thinking and actions were shaped. The historical contexts included the ethnic politics of organizational funding in the 1970s and the “entrepreneurial” turn of community-based economic development and Miami urban politics since the 1980s. Over time neighborhood organizations adopted highly pragmatic rationalities and repertoires of action. By the 2000s when Wynwood experienced unprecedented investment and redevelopment, the pragmatism of community-based organizations led them to become junior partners in governance arrangements and neighborhood activists were unable to directly challenge the inequitable processes and outcomes of gentrification.

Securitization of Lodging Real Estate Finance

In the early 1990s, the U.S. lodging industry witnessed a severe shortage of debt capital as traditional lenders exited the market. During this period hotel lending was revolutionized by the emergence of real estate debt securities. The author discusses key factors which have affected the growth and development of commercial mortgage backed securities and their changing role as a significant source of debt capital to the lodging industry.

The Specialist: Coming Soon To Your Local Hotel

In an article entitled - The Specialist: Coming Soon To Your Local Hotel - by Stan Bromley, Regional Vice President and General Manager, Four Seasons Clift Hotel, San Francisco, the author’s introduction states: “An experienced hotelier discusses the importance of the delivery of a high “quality-to-value” ratio consistently to guests, particularly as the hotel market becomes specialized and a distinction is drawn between a “property” and a “hotel.” The author’s primary intention is to make you, the reader, aware of changes in the hospitality/hotel marketplace. From the embryo to the contemporary, the hotel market has consistently evolved; this includes but is not limited to mission statement, marketing, management, facilities, and all the tangibles and intangibles of the total hotel experience. “Although we are knocking ourselves out trying to be everything to everyone, I don't think hotel consumers are as interested in “mixing and matching” as they were in the past,” Bromley says. “Today's hotel guest is looking for “specialized care,” and is increasingly skeptical of our industry-wide hotel ads and promises of greatness.” As an example Bromley makes an analogy using retail outlets such as Macy’s, Saks, and Sears, which cater to their own unique market segment. Hotels now follow the same outline, he allows. “In my view, two key factors will make a hotel a success,” advises Bromley. “First, know your specialty and market to that segment. Second, make sure you consistently offer a high quality-to-value ratio. That means every day.” To emphasize that second point, Bromley offers this bolstering thought, “The second factor that will make or break your business is your ability to deliver a high "quality/value" ratio-and to do so consistently.” The author evidently considers quality-to-value ratio to be an important element. Bromley emphasizes the importance of convention and trade show business to the hotel industry. That business element cannot be over-estimated in his opinion. This doesn’t mean an operator who can accommodate that type of business should exclude other client opportunities outside the target market. It does mean, however, these secondary opportunities should only be addressed after pursuing the primary target strategy. After all, the largest profit margin lies in the center of the target. To amplify the above statement, and in reference to his own experience, Bromley says, “Being in the luxury end of the business I, on the other hand, need to uncover and book individuals and small corporate meetings more than convention or association business.

The use of presidential executive orders to control the management and administration of the federal government

As long as governmental institutions have existed, efforts have been undertaken to reform them. This research examines a particular strategy, coercive controls, exercised through a particular instrument, executive orders, by a singular reformer, the president of the United States. The presidents studied- Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, and Clinton-are those whose campaigns for office were characterized to varying degrees as against Washington bureaucracy and for executive reform. Executive order issuance is assessed through an examination of key factors for each president including political party affiliation, levels of political capital, and legislative experience. A classification typology is used to identify the topical dimensions and levels of coerciveness. The portrayal of the federal government is analyzed through examination of public, media, and presidential attention. The results show that executive orders are significant management tools for the president. Executive orders also represent an important component of the transition plans for incoming administrations. The findings indicate that overall, while executive orders have not increased in the aggregate, they are more intrusive and significant. When the factors of political party affiliation, political capital, and legislative experience are examined, it reveals a strong relationship between executive orders and previous executive experience, specifically presidents who served as a state governor prior to winning national election as president. Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton (all former governors) have the highest percent of executive orders focusing on the federal bureaucracy. Additionally, the highest percent of forceful orders were issued by former governors (41.0%) as compared to their presidential counterparts who have not served as governors (19.9%). Secondly, political party affiliation is an important, but not significant, predictor for the use of executive orders. Thirdly, management strategies that provide the president with the greatest level of autonomy-executive orders redefine the concept of presidential power and autonomous action. Interviews of elite government officials and political observers support the idea that executive orders can provide the president with a successful management strategy, requiring less expenditure of political resources, less risk to political capital, and a way of achieving objectives without depending on an unresponsive Congress.

O papel do ambiente residencial na qualidade de vida de idosos: um estudo exploratório em Cabedelo, Paraíba

Currently, the growing aging population challenges the society and public health policies, for increased longevity need to be associated with quality of life. Adequate physical and social environment are key factors for the welfare of the elderly, particularly the housing environment - this thesis understood as the home (dwelling unit) and its surroundings (close proximity). In addition, Brazilian legislation in this sector indicates the importance of the elderly remain at home and in the family. In addition, Brazilian legislation in this sector indicates the importance of the elderly remain at home and in the family. Based on this framework mortar, the thesis was starting questions: How do you live the elderly population aged 80 and over which is served by the Health Family Strategy of the Unified Health System? That social and environmental conditions of the place of residence act more directly on their quality of life? How do these people get housing conditions experienced? The research aimed to investigate how the residential environment (social and physical) influence everyday activities and quality of life of the elderly. Exploratory qualitative study highlighting the home visits, developed based on multimethod strategy. The empirical study was conducted in the city of Cabedelo-PB, Nov/2013 to Feb/2014. Participants were 36 elderly people (31 women and 5 men) aged between 80 and 99 years, little education, who live 39 years in the area (average). In the research first stage were applied questionnaires for socio-demographics and livability of the residence and the surroundings. In the second stage we used semi-structured interview and a tour accompanied in the neighborhood (with those who have accepted to do so). Throughout work it was kept a diary by the researcher and held naturalistic observations of the behavior of the elderly. Quantitative data were described using descriptive statistics, and information from the interviews were analyzed through the Collective Subject Discourse technique. Among the key ideas that emerged from them are: the representation of home, neighborhood support and related issues dyad independence / autonomy. The study showed that the elderly develop strong attachment to the place where he lives, the importance of it for your health and the desire to stay there. Thus, despite experiencing many barriers (more physical than the social), at the place where they live, they say they are satisfied, even when unfavorable conditions are evident. Concluding that as the houses are environmentally more docile, simple changes ensure autonomy, independence and mobility for the elderly. In turn, the barriers of the urban environment show it more difficult to deal with, making this space inhospitable to most survey participants, a condition that hinders your physical activities and social participation, and negatively influence their quality of life.

Morphometrics of seagrasses at species level, Moreton Bay, Australia determined from core samples collected in 2012-2013

Seagrass meadows are important marine carbon sinks, yet they are threatened and declining worldwide. Seagrass management and conservation requires adequate understanding of the physical and biological factors determining carbon content in seagrass sediments. Here, we identified key factors that influence carbon content in seagrass meadows across several environmental gradients in Moreton Bay, SE Queensland. Sampling was conducted in two regions: (1) Canopy Complexity, 98 sites on the Eastern Banks, where seagrass canopy structure and species composition varied while turbidity was consistently low; and (2) Turbidity Gradient, 11 locations across the entire bay, where turbidity varied among sampling locations. Sediment organic carbon content and seagrass structural complexity (shoot density, leaf area, and species specific characteristics) were measured from shallow sediment and seagrass biomass cores at each location, respectively. Environmental data were obtained from empirical measurements (water quality) and models (wave height). The key factors influencing carbon content in seagrass sediments were seagrass structural complexity, turbidity, water depth, and wave height. In the Canopy Complexity region, carbon content was higher for shallower sites and those with higher seagrass structural complexity. When turbidity varied along the Turbidity Gradient, carbon content was higher at sites with high turbidity. In both regions carbon content was consistently higher in sheltered areas with lower wave height. Seagrass canopy structure, water depth, turbidity, and hydrodynamic setting of seagrass meadows should therefore be considered in conservation and management strategies that aim to maximize sediment carbon content.

Irish and Jordanian general student nurses’ attitudes towards people with mental illness (PWMI) and their relationship to cultural and religious beliefs

Background Attitudes held and cultural and religious beliefs of general nursing students towards individuals with mental health problems are key factors that contribute to the quality of care provided. Negative attitudes towards mental illness and to individuals with mental health problems are held by the general public as well as health professionals. Negative attitudes towards people with mental illness have been reported to be associated with low quality of care, poor access to health care services and feelings of exclusion. Furthermore, culture has been reported to play a significant role in shaping people’s attitudes, values, beliefs, and behaviours, but has been poorly investigated. Research has also found that religious beliefs and practices are associated with better recovery for individuals with mental illness and enhanced coping strategies and provide more meaning and purpose to thinking and actions. The literature indicated that both Ireland and Jordan lack baseline data of general nurses’ and general nursing students’ attitudes towards mental illness and associated cultural and religious beliefs. Aims: To measure general nursing students’ attitudes towards individuals with mental illness and their relationships to socio-demographic variables and cultural and religious beliefs. Method: A quantitative descriptive study was conducted (n=470). 185 students in Jordan and 285 students in Ireland participated, with a response rate of 86% and 73%, respectively. Data were collected using the Community Attitudes towards the Mentally Ill instrument and a Cultural and Religious Beliefs Scale to People with Mental Illness constructed by the author. Results: Irish students reported more positive attitudes yet did not have strong cultural and religious beliefs compared to students from Jordan. Country of origin, considering a career in mental health nursing, knowing somebody with mental illness and cultural and religious beliefs were the most significant variables associated with students’ attitudes towards people with mental illness. In addition, students living in urban areas reported more positive attitudes to people with mental illness compared to those living in rural areas.

The knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of patients and their healthcare professionals around oral dosage form modification: a systematic review of the qualitative literature

Objectives: The objective of this systematic review was to synthesize the available qualitative evidence on the knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of adult patients, healthcare professionals and carers about oral dosage form modification. Design: A systematic review and synthesis of qualitative studies was undertaken, utilising the thematic synthesis approach. Data sources: The following databases were searched from inception to September 2015: PubMed, Medline (EBSCO), EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ProQuest Databases, Scopus, Turning Research Into Practice (TRIP), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). Citation tracking and searching the references lists of included studies was also undertaken. Grey literature was searched using the OpenGrey database, internet searching and personal knowledge. An updated search was undertaken in June 2016. Review methods: Studies meeting the following criteria were eligible for inclusion; (i) used qualitative data collection and analysis methods; (ii) full-text was available in English; (iii) included adult patients who require oral dosage forms to be modified to meet their needs or; (iv) carers or healthcare professionals of patients who require oral dosage forms to be modified. Two reviewers independently appraised the quality of the included studies using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme Checklist. A thematic synthesis was conducted and analytical themes were generated. Results: Of 5455 records screened, seven studies were eligible for inclusion; three involved healthcare professionals and the remaining four studies involved patients. Four analytical themes emerged from the thematic synthesis: (i) patient-centred individuality and variability; (ii) communication; (iii) knowledge and uncertainty and; (iv) complexity. The variability of individual patient’s requirements, poor communication practices and lack of knowledge about oral dosage form modification, when combined with the complex and multi-faceted healthcare environment complicate decision making regarding oral dosage form modification and administration. Conclusions: This systematic review has highlighted the key factors influencing the knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of patients and healthcare professionals about oral dosage form modifications. The findings suggest that in order to optimise oral medicine modification practices the needs of individual patients should be routinely and systematically assessed and decision-making should be supported by evidence based recommendations with multidisciplinary input. Further research is needed to optimise oral dosage form modification practices and the factors identified in this review should be considered in the development of future interventions.