An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

GALEX Detection of Shock Breakout in Type IIP Supernova PS1-13arp: Implications for the Progenitor Star Wind

We present the GALEX detection of a UV burst at the time of explosion of an optically normal supernova (SN) IIP (PS1-13arp) from the Pan-STARRS1 survey at z = 0.1665. The temperature and luminosity of the UV burst match the theoretical predictions for shock breakout in a red supergiant (RSG), but with a duration a factor of similar to 50 longer than expected. We compare the NUV light curve of PS1-13arp to previous GALEX detections of SNe IIP and find clear distinctions that indicate that the UV emission is powered by shock breakout, and not by the subsequent cooling envelope emission previously detected in these systems. We interpret the similar to 1 day duration of the UV signal with a shock breakout in the wind of an RSG with a pre-explosion mass-loss rate of similar to 10(-3) M-circle dot yr(-1). This mass-loss rate is enough to prolong the duration of the shock breakout signal, but not enough to produce an excess in the optical plateau light curve or narrow emission lines powered by circumstellar interaction. This detection of nonstandard, potentially episodic high mass loss in an RSG SN progenitor has favorable consequences for the prospects of future wide-field UV surveys to detect shock breakout directly in these systems, and provide a sensitive probe of the pre-explosion conditions of SN progenitors.

Reserve from wind power potential in system economic loading

The growth of wind power in some power systems is hampered by the system requirement for emergency reserve to cover loss of the biggest infeed. The study demonstrates that reserve provision from the wind sector itself has economic and operational benefits. A heuristic algorithm has been developed that can model the relevant aspects of emergency reserve provision in a system with both thermal and wind generations. The proposed algorithm is first validated by comparing its performance with established economic scheduling methods applied to a representative power system. The algorithm is then used to demonstrate the economic benefit of reserve provision from the wind sector. It is shown that such provision reduces wind energy curtailment and thermal unit ramping. Finally, it is shown that a wind sector capable of providing emergency reserve can expand economically beyond the capacity limit that would otherwise apply.

Long-Term Economic Model for Allocation of FACTS Devices in Restructured Power System Integrated Wind Generation

This study proposes an approach to optimally allocate multiple types of flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices in market-based power systems with wind generation. The main objective is to maximise profit by minimising device investment cost, and the system's operating cost considering both normal conditions and possible contingencies. The proposed method accurately evaluates the long-term costs and benefits gained by FACTS devices (FDs) installation to solve a large-scale optimisation problem. The objective implies maximising social welfare as well as minimising compensations paid for generation re-scheduling and load shedding. Many technical operation constraints and uncertainties are included in problem formulation. The overall problem is solved using both particle swarm optimisations for attaining optimal FDs allocation as main problem and optimal power flow as sub-optimisation problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on modified IEEE 14-bus test system and IEEE 118-bus test system.

Efficacy of Wind Power in Mitigation of CO2 Emission from the Irish Electrical Grid

The results in this paper are based on a data set containing system demand, wind generation and CO2 emission between Jan 2010 and Sep 2013. The data was recorded at 15 minute intervals and reflects the macroscopic operation of the Republic of Ireland's electrical grid. The data was analyzed by investigating how daily wind generation effected daily CO2 emission across multiple days with equivalent daily demand. A figure for wind turbine efficiency was determined by dividing the CO2 mitigation potential of wind power by the CO2 intensity of the grid; both in units of Tonnes of CO2 per MWh. The yearly wind power efficiency appears to have increased by 5.6% per year, now standing around 90%. Over the four years significant regularity was observed in the profiles of wind turbine efficiency against daily demand. It appears that the efficiency profile has moved in recent years so that maximum efficiency coincides with most frequent demand.