Anàlisi econòmica en un establiment de restauració per a la presa de decisions: Aplicació pràctica en el cas del restaurant Empòrium

Estudi basat en l’anàlisi econòmica d’una empresa turística existent aplicant tècniques i mètodes basats en la comptabilitat de costos per poder prendre decisions. L’objectiu és aconseguir determinar el cost derivat de la producció de l’activitat de l’empresa analitzada, i així plantejar una sèrie d’actuacions estratègiques per poder ésser competitius envers la resta d’empreses de restauració de l’entorn. L'empresa analitzada és el restaurant Empòrium

Anàlisi econòmica en un establiment hoteler per a la presa de decisions: Aplicació pràctica en el cas de l’hotel Empòrium

Treball de final de carrera amb l’objectiu d’establir unes decisions estratègiques en una empresa hotelera a través de l’anàlisi econòmica aplicant un model de determinació de costos anomenat direct costing. Es proposa una eina estratègica que permeti a cada empresa obtenir una informació el màxim de real sobre les diferents variables econòmiques que afecten a la seva activitat per poder prendre decisions a curt termini i obtenir una màxima rendibilitat

Early detection of leprosy by examination of household contacts, determination of serum anti-PGL-1 antibodies and consanguinity

A cross-sectional clinical trial in which the serum anti-phenolic glycolipid (anti-PGL-1) antibodies were analysed in household contacts (HHC) of patients with leprosy as an adjunct early leprosy diagnostic marker was conducted. The families of 83 patients underwent clinical examination and serum anti-PGL1 measurement using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Of 320 HHC, 98 were contacts of lepromatous leprosy (LL), 80 were contacts of borderline lepromatous (BL), 28 were contacts of borderline (BB) leprosy, 54 were contacts of borderline tuberculoid (BT), 40 were contacts of tuberculoid (TT) and 20 were contacts of indeterminate (I) leprosy. Consanguinity with the patients was determined for 232 (72.5%) HHC. Of those 232 contacts, 183 had linear consanguinity. Forty-nine HHC had collateral consanguinity. Fifty-eight contacts (18.1%) tested positive for anti-PGL1 antibodies. The number of seropositive contacts based on the clinical forms of the index case was 17 (29.3%) for LL, 15 (25.9%) for BL, one (1.7%) for BB, 14 (24.1%) for BT, three (5.2%) for TT and eight (13.7%) for I. At the one year follow-up, two (3.4%) of these seropositive contacts had developed BT leprosy. The results of the present study indicate that the serum anti-PGL-1 IgM antibody may be useful for evaluating antigen exposure and as a tool for an early leprosy diagnosis in HHC.

Unveiling healthy carriers and subclinical infections among household contacts of leprosy patients who play potential roles in the disease chain of transmission

Leprosy transmission still occurs despite the availability of highly effective treatment. The next step towards successfully eliminating leprosy is interrupting the chain of transmission of the aetiological agent, Mycobacterium leprae. In this investigation, we provide evidence that household contacts (HHCs) of leprosy patients might not only have subclinical infections, but may also be actively involved in bacilli transmission. We studied 444 patients and 1,352 contacts using anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I) serology and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to test for M. leprae DNA in nasal swabs. We classified the patients according to the clinical form of their disease and the contacts according to the characteristics of their index case. Overall, 63.3% and 34.2% of patients tested positive by ELISA and PCR, respectively. For HHCs, 13.3% had a positive ELISA test result and 4.7% had a positive PCR test result. The presence of circulating anti-PGL-I among healthy contacts (with or without a positive PCR test result from nasal swabs) was considered to indicate a subclinical infection. DNA detected in nasal swabs also indicates the presence of bacilli at the site of transmission and bacterial entrance. We suggest that the concomitant use of both assays may allow us to detect subclinical infection in HHCs and to identify possible bacilli carriers who may transmit and disseminate disease in endemic regions. Chemoprophylaxis of these contacts is suggested.

How to manage a virtual library?

Introduction. The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) was created in June 2006, after being determined by the II Quality Plan in the key process Guarantee the Knowledge Exchange into the Health System which was established by the Strategy IV, Knowledge Management, 2005-2008. It is a government strategy with its own budget and management with the aim of rationalizing the subscriptions into the Andalusian Health System and democratizing the health professional access to qualify scientific information, regardless of the professional workplace. Andalusia is a wide region with more than 8 million inhabitants, more than 90,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary healthcare centres, and 12 centres for non-medical attention purposes, and the Virtual Library was created to cover all this Health Services. Before the creation of the BV-SSPA every centre had its own budget and management decisions concerning scientific resources, with the creation of the BV-SSPA both management and budget were centralized. Objectives. With this work we pretend to analyze if the results after these five years have reached the expectations from an economic point of view and determine if really we can offer a benefit to the Andalusian Professional and Society in general. We will demonstrate the following: - The BV-SSPA supposed a cost reduction. It meant cost-effectiveness. - It resulted in Economics of Scale, as we have every year more resources and services investing a minor proportional amount of money. - In terms of Efficiency it implemented more services than the System had before its creation, we a lower budget. Methods. The BV-SSPA was appointed the only intermediary for contracting electronic resources destined to the Andalusian Health System. This had some consequences which should be analyzed: - Hospitals were not allowed to subscribe any resources. - Services offered for the whole System. - A remote access system was created. - Tools to give more visibility to the Public Health System were developed. - Negotiations techniques changed as the BV-SSPA is stronger than individual hospitals. Results. - The amount of 2,431 electronic reviews, 8 data bases and other scientific information resources at the disposal of the Andalusian Health System Professionals and available worldwide requiring only an internet connection. Before the BV-SSPA, 5,267 titles were subscribed by hospital and 2,967 of them were subscribed repeatedly (by two or more hospitals), this represented more than 55%. The rationalization of the subscription investment has been reached. - The establishment of several important scientific services for the whole territory of Andalusia, not only big hospitals. - The use of appropriate tools through a Web 2.0 and Social Media to be acknowledged by most National Health Professionals. Conclusions. It has been demonstrated that the BV-SSPA has become the Central Unit for purchasing, offering librarian services and a reference for users in terms of knowledge management, but from the point of view of business it has also obtained the following results: - Cost-Effectiveness: Its budget for subscriptions is lower than the hospital former one in a 30% and now more electronic resources are available. - Economics of Scale: Near 95,000 health professionals can access this Virtual Library in 2010. Before its creation Professionals for small hospital and Primary Care centres were not able to access to scientific information subscribed by big hospitals. - Efficiency Besides the central electronic purchasing, services were created for the System, without increasing the expenses: - Remote access to all the library resources independent of the user’s location. The BV-SSPA usage increased in a 147% in 2008, when it was installed. - The Document Supply Service implemented in 2009. - The Institutional Repository which contains the whole intellectual, scientific production generated by the Andalusian Public Health Professionals as a result of their healthcare, research or managing activity. - The creation of an application developed by the BV-SSPA to study the Andalusian Health System Scientific Production. - The visibility of the Andalusian Health System reached thanks to the BV-SSPA, through the numerous events in which it participates and organizes such as the 2nd. European National Digital Libraries of Health Conferences and the National Conference of Health Science Information and Documentation held in Cadiz in 2010; and its profile in social media where it can be contacted by citizens and health professionals all over the world. - Negotiation with electronic resource suppliers is much more advantageous as the BV-SSPA is stronger to deal with them thanks to its consolidated budget, its managing independence and its visibility.

Generation of cell polarity in plants links endocytosis, auxin distribution and cell fate decisions.

Dynamically polarized membrane proteins define different cell boundaries and have an important role in intercellular communication-a vital feature of multicellular development. Efflux carriers for the signalling molecule auxin from the PIN family are landmarks of cell polarity in plants and have a crucial involvement in auxin distribution-dependent development including embryo patterning, organogenesis and tropisms. Polar PIN localization determines the direction of intercellular auxin flow, yet the mechanisms generating PIN polarity remain unclear. Here we identify an endocytosis-dependent mechanism of PIN polarity generation and analyse its developmental implications. Real-time PIN tracking showed that after synthesis, PINs are initially delivered to the plasma membrane in a non-polar manner and their polarity is established by subsequent endocytic recycling. Interference with PIN endocytosis either by auxin or by manipulation of the Arabidopsis Rab5 GTPase pathway prevents PIN polarization. Failure of PIN polarization transiently alters asymmetric auxin distribution during embryogenesis and increases the local auxin response in apical embryo regions. This results in ectopic expression of auxin pathway-associated root-forming master regulators in embryonic leaves and promotes homeotic transformation of leaves to roots. Our results indicate a two-step mechanism for the generation of PIN polar localization and the essential role of endocytosis in this process. It also highlights the link between endocytosis-dependent polarity of individual cells and auxin distribution-dependent cell fate establishment for multicellular patterning.

Serial QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube assay and tuberculin skin test to diagnose latent tuberculosis in household Mexican contacts: conversion and reversion rates and associated factors using conventional and borderline zone definitions

A cohort of 123 adult contacts was followed for 18‐24 months (86 completed the follow-up) to compare conversion and reversion rates based on two serial measures of QuantiFERON (QFT) and tuberculin skin test (TST) (PPD from TUBERSOL, Aventis Pasteur, Canada) for diagnosing latent tuberculosis (TB) in household contacts of TB patients using conventional (C) and borderline zone (BZ) definitions. Questionnaires were used to obtain information regarding TB exposure, TB risk factors and socio-demographic data. QFT (IU/mL) conversion was defined as <0.35 to ≥0.35 (C) or <0.35 to >0.70 (BZ) and reversion was defined as ≥0.35 to <0.35 (C) or ≥0.35 to <0.20 (BZ); TST (mm) conversion was defined as <5 to ≥5 (C) or <5 to >10 (BZ) and reversion was defined as ≥5 to <5 (C). The QFT conversion and reversion rates were 10.5% and 7% with C and 8.1% and 4.7% with the BZ definitions, respectively. The TST rates were higher compared with QFT, especially with the C definitions (conversion 23.3%, reversion 9.3%). The QFT conversion and reversion rates were higher for TST ≥5; for TST, both rates were lower for QFT <0.35. No risk factors were associated with the probability of converting or reverting. The inconsistency and apparent randomness of serial testing is confusing and adds to the limitations of these tests and definitions to follow-up close TB contacts.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Investment, duration, and exit strategies for corporate and independent venture capital-backed start-ups

We propose a model of investment, duration, and exit strategies for start-ups backed by venture capital (VC) funds that accounts for the high level of uncertainty, the asymmetry of information between insiders and outsiders, and the discount rate. Our analysis predicts that start-ups backed by corporate VC funds remain for a longer period of time before exiting and receive larger investment amounts than those financed by independent VC funds. Although a longer duration leads to a higher likelihood of an exit through an acquisition, a larger investment increases the probability of an IPO exit. These predictions find strong empirical support.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel: Is change associated with drop-out?

This study examines the importance of change in characteristics and circumstances ofhouseholds and household members for contact and cooperation patterns. The literaturesuggests that there might be an underrepresentation of change in panel studies, becauserespondents facing more changes would be more likely to drop out. We approach this problemby analysing whether previous changes are predictive of later attrition or temporary drop-out,using eleven waves of the Swiss Household Panel (1999-2009). Our analyses supportprevious findings to some extent. Changes in household composition, employment status andsocial involvement as well as moving are associated mainly with attrition and less withtemporary drop-out. These changes affect obtaining cooperation rather than obtaining contact,and tend to increase attrition.

Construir la pau i el desenvolupament a la Costa d’Ivori: decisions nacionals, responsabilitats i deures compartits

Un any després de la segona volta de les eleccions presidencials, i a pocs dies de les eleccions legislatives (11 de desembre de 2011), la Costa d’Ivori es troba en un moment especialment important. Després d’intensos enfrontaments armats, el país sembla estar passant cap a una nova etapa de la seva història. Per aquest motiu, ara és un bon moment per establir una retrospectiva crítica de les causes de la crisi postelectoral que, a la vegada, serveixi per construir un escenari per a una construcció pacífica de l’estat. En coherència, aquest policy paper fa una sèrie de recomanacions a curt, mig i llarg termini i pensades a partir d’una premissa: construir la pau i el desenvolupament depèn exclusivament de decisions nacionals, ivorianes, però les responsabilitats i deures són, en alguns casos, compartits per actors nacionals i internacionals. Hom continua així el compromís de l’ICIP amb la construcció de la pau a la Costa d’Ivori.