Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Optimal Taxation and Indeterminacy in the Uzawa-Lucas Model with Sector-specific Externalities

Documento de trabajo

An extended computational model of the circulatory system for designing ventricular assist devices.

An extended computational model of the circulatory system has been developed to predict blood flow in the presence of ventricular assist devices (VADs). A novel VAD, placed in the descending aorta, intended to offload the left ventricle (LV) and augment renal perfusion is being studied. For this application, a better understanding of the global hemodynamic response of the VAD, in essence an electrically driven pump, and the cardiovascular system is necessary. To meet this need, a model has been established as a nonlinear, lumped-parameter electrical analog, and simulated results under different states [healthy, congestive heart failure (CHF), and postinsertion of VAD] are presented. The systemic circulation is separated into five compartments and the descending aorta is composed of three components to accurately yield the system response of each section before and after the insertion of the VAD. Delays in valve closing time and blood inertia in the aorta were introduced to deliver a more realistic model. Pump governing equations and optimization are based on fundamental theories of turbomachines and can serve as a practical initial design point for rotary blood pumps. The model's results closely mimic established parameters for the circulatory system and confirm the feasibility of the intra-aortic VAD concept. This computational model can be linked with models of the pump motor to provide a valuable tool for innovative VAD design.

Toward a rule-based biome model

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50 to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated either by competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes or by drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, hence the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken toward development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. ... The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including: explicit simulation of potential evapotranspiration, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

Comparison of stabilised/solidified mixes of model drill cuttings based on the North Sea and Red Sea Areas

Following the global stringent legislations regulating the wastes generated from the drilling process of oil exploration and production activities, the management of hazardous drill cuttings has become one of the pressing needs confronting the petroleum industry. Most of the prevalent treatment techniques adopted by oil companies are extremely expensive and/or the treated product has to be landfilled without any potential end-use; thereby rendering these solutions unsustainable. The technique of stabilisation/solidification is being investigated in this research to treat drill cuttings prior to landfilling or for potential re-use in construction products. Two case studies were explored namely North Sea and Red Sea. Given the known difficulties with stabilising/solidifying oils and chlorides, this research made use of model drill cutting mixes based on typical drill cutting from the two case studies, which contained 4.2% and 10.95% average concentrations of hydrocarbons; and 2.03% and 2.13% of chlorides, by weight respectively. A number of different binders, including a range of conventional viz. Portland cement (PC) as well as less-conventional viz. zeolite, or waste binders viz. cement kiln dust (CKD), fly ash and compost were tested to assess their ability to treat the North Sea and Red Sea model drill cuttings. The dry binder content by weight was 10%, 20% and 30%. In addition, raw drill cuttings from one of the North Sea offshore rigs were stabilised/solidified using 30% PC. The characteristics of the final stabilised/solidified product were finally compared to those of thermally treated cuttings. The effectiveness of the treatment using the different binder systems was compared in the light of the aforementioned two contaminants only. A set of physical tests (unconfined compressive strength (UCS)), chemical tests (NRA leachability) and micro-structural examinations (using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD)) were used to evaluate the relative performance of the different binder mixes in treating the drill cuttings. The results showed that the observed UCS covered a wide range of values indicating various feasible end-use scenarios for the treated cuttings within the construction industry. The teachability results showed the reduction of the model drill cuttings to a stable non-reactive hazardous waste, compliant with the UK acceptance criteria for non-hazardous landfills: (a) by most of the 30% and 20% binders for chloride concentrations, and (b) by the 20% and 30% of compost-PC and CKD-PC binders for the Red Sea cuttings. The 20% and 30% compost-PC and CKD-PC binders successfully reduced the leached oil concentration of the North Sea cuttings to inert levels. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Extraction of fibre network architecture by X-ray tomography and prediction of elastic properties using an affine analytical model

This paper proposes a method for extracting reliable architectural characteristics from complex porous structures using micro-computed tomography (μCT) images. The work focuses on a highly porous material composed of a network of fibres bonded together. The segmentation process, allowing separation of the fibres from the remainder of the image, is the most critical step in constructing an accurate representation of the network architecture. Segmentation methods, based on local and global thresholding, were investigated and evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the architectural parameters they yielded, such as the fibre orientation and segment length (sections between joints) distributions and the number of inter-fibre crossings. To improve segmentation accuracy, a deconvolution algorithm was proposed to restore the original images. The efficacy of the proposed method was verified by comparing μCT network architectural characteristics with those obtained using high resolution CT scans (nanoCT). The results indicate that this approach resolves the architecture of these complex networks and produces results approaching the quality of nanoCT scans. The extracted architectural parameters were used in conjunction with an affine analytical model to predict the axial and transverse stiffnesses of the fibre network. Transverse stiffness predictions were compared with experimentally measured values obtained by vibration testing. © 2011 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fault-tolerant model predictive control of a wind turbine benchmark

This paper aims to solve the fault tolerant control problem of a wind turbine benchmark. A hierarchical controller with model predictive pre-compensators, a global model predictive controller and a supervisory controller is proposed. In the model predictive pre-compensator, an extended Kalman Filter is designed to estimate the system states and various fault parameters. Based on the estimation, a group of model predictive controllers are designed to compensate the fault effects for each component of the wind turbine. The global MPC is used to schedule the operation of the components and exploit potential system-level redundancies. Extensive simulations of various fault conditions show that the proposed controller has small transients when faults occur and uses smoother and smaller generator torque and pitch angle inputs than the default controller. This paper shows that MPC can be a good candidate for fault tolerant controllers, especially the one with an adaptive internal model combined with a parameter estimation and update mechanism, such as an extended Kalman Filter. © 2012 IFAC.

Linear and nonlinear model large-eddy simulations of a plane jet

The nonlinear Kosovic, and mixed Leray and α subgrid scale models are contrasted with linear Smagorinsky and Yoshizawa Large Eddy Simulations for a Re = 4000 plane jet simulation. Comparisons are made with Direct Numerical Simulation data and measurements. Global properties of the jet such as the spreading and centreline velocity decay rates are investigated. The mean-flow and turbulence parameters in the self-similar region are also studied. All models generally give encouraging agreement with the Direct Numerical Simulation data and reliable measurements. Solution differences for the models are relatively minor, none giving clear improvements for all data comparisons.

Prediction of FRP debonding using the global-energy-balance approach

A major research program was carried out to analyze the mechanism of FRP debonding from concrete beams using global-energy-balance approach (GEBA). The key findings are that the fracture process zone is small so there is no R-curve to consider, failure is dominated by Mode I behavior, and the theory agrees well with tests. The analyses developed in the study provide an essential tool that will enable fracture mechanics to be used to determine the load at which FRP plates will debond from concrete beams. This obviates the need for finite element (FE) analyses in situations where reliable details of the interface geometry and crack-tip stress fields are not attainable for an accurate analysis. This paper presents an overview of the GEBA analyses that is described in detail elsewhere, and explains the slightly unconventional assumptions made in the analyses, such as the revised moment-curvature model, the location of an effective centroid, the separate consideration of the FRP and the RC beam for the purposes of the analysis, the use of Mode I fracture energies and the absence of an R-curve in the fracture mechanics analysis.

Spray flame study using a model gas turbine swirl burner

A model gas turbine burner was employed to investigate spray flames established under globally lean, continuous, swirling conditions. Two types of fuel were used to generate liquid spray flames: palm biodiesel and Jet-A1. The main swirling air flow was preheated to 350°C prior to mixing with airblast-atomized fuel droplets at atmospheric pressure. The global flame structure of flame and flow field were investigated at the fixed power output of 6 kW. Flame chemiluminescence imaging technique was employed to investigate the flame reaction zones, while particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) was utilized to measure the flow field within the combustor. The flow fields of both flames are almost identical despite some differences in the flame reaction zones. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle

Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient) behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity. © 2012 Trotta et al.

Slow peaking and low-gain designs for global stabilization of nonlinear systems

This paper presents an analysis of the slow-peaking phenomenon, a pitfall of low-gain designs that imposes basic limitations to large regions of attraction in nonlinear control systems. The phenomenon is best understood on a chain of integrators perturbed by a vector field up(x, u) that satisfies p(x, 0) = 0. Because small controls (or low-gain designs) are sufficient to stabilize the unperturbed chain of integrators, it may seem that smaller controls, which attenuate the perturbation up(x, u) in a large compact set, can be employed to achieve larger regions of attraction. This intuition is false, however, and peaking may cause a loss of global controllability unless severe growth restrictions are imposed on p(x, u). These growth restrictions are expressed as a higher order condition with respect to a particular weighted dilation related to the peaking exponents of the nominal system. When this higher order condition is satisfied, an explicit control law is derived that achieves global asymptotic stability of x = 0. This stabilization result is extended to more general cascade nonlinear systems in which the perturbation p(x, v) v, v = (ξ, u) T, contains the state ξ and the control u of a stabilizable subsystem ξ = a(ξ, u). As an illustration, a control law is derived that achieves global stabilization of the frictionless ball-and-beam model.