Quantifying the impact of environmental variables upon catch-per-unit-effort of the Blue Shark Prionace glauca in the Western English Channel

The effect of environmental variables on blue shark Prionace glauca catch per unit effort (CPUE) in a recreational fishery in the western English Channel, between June and September 1998–2011, was quantified using generalized additive models (GAMs). Sea surface temperature (SST) explained 1·4% of GAM deviance, and highest CPUE occurred at 16·7° C, reflecting the optimal thermal preferences of this species. Surface chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) significantly affected CPUE and caused 27·5% of GAM deviance. Additionally, increasing CHL led to rising CPUE, probably due to higher productivity supporting greater prey biomass. The density of shelf-sea tidal mixing fronts explained 5% of GAM deviance, but was non-significant, with increasing front density negatively affecting CPUE. Time-lagged frontal density significantly affected CPUE, however, causing 12·6% of the deviance in a second GAM and displayed a positive correlation. This outcome suggested a delay between the evolution of frontal features and the subsequent accumulation of productivity and attraction of higher trophic level predators, such as P. glauca.

Mesoscale fronts as foraging habitats: composite front mapping reveals oceanographic drivers of habitat use for a pelagic seabird

The oceanographic drivers of marine vertebrate habitat use are poorly understood yet fundamental to our knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Here, we use composite front mapping and high-resolution GPS tracking to determine the significance of mesoscale oceanographic fronts as physical drivers of foraging habitat selection in northern gannets Morus bassanus. We tracked 66 breeding gannets from a Celtic Sea colony over 2 years and used residence time to identify area-restricted search (ARS) behaviour. Composite front maps identified thermal and chlorophyll-a mesoscale fronts at two different temporal scales—(i) contemporaneous fronts and (ii) seasonally persistent frontal zones. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), with generalized estimating equations (GEE-GAMs) to account for serial autocorrelation in tracking data, we found that gannets do not adjust their behaviour in response to contemporaneous fronts. However, ARS was more likely to occur within spatially predictable, seasonally persistent frontal zones (GAMs). Our results provide proof of concept that composite front mapping is a useful tool for studying the influence of oceanographic features on animal movements. Moreover, we highlight that frontal persistence is a crucial element of the formation of pelagic foraging hotspots for mobile marine vertebrates.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

The impact of curricular change on medical students' knowledge of anatomy

Background: In recent years, following the publication of Tomorrow's Doctors, the undergraduate medical curriculum in most UK medical schools has undergone major revision. This has resulted in a significant reduction in the time allocated to the teaching of the basic medical sciences, including anatomy. However, it is not clear what impact these changes have had on medical students' knowledge of surface anatomy. Aim: This study aimed to assess the impact of these curricular changes on medical students' knowledge of surface anatomy. Setting: Medical student intakes for 1995-98 at the Queen's University of Belfast, UK. Methods: The students were invited to complete a simple examination paper testing their knowledge of surface anatomy. Results from the student intake of 1995, which undertook a traditional, 'old' curriculum, were compared with those from the student intakes of 1996-98, which undertook a new, 'systems-based' curriculum. To enhance linear response and enable the use of linear models for analysis, all data were adjusted using probit transformations of the proportion (percentage) of correct answers for each item and each year group. Results: The student intake of 1995 (old curriculum) were more likely to score higher than the students who undertook the new, systems-based curriculum. Conclusion: The introduction of the new, systems-based course has had a negative impact on medical students' knowledge of surface anatomy.

Application of auto-associative neural networks to transient fault detection in an IC engine

The tailpipe emissions from automotive engines have been subject to steadily reducing legislative limits. This reduction has been achieved through the addition of sub-systems to the basic four-stroke engine which thereby increases its complexity. To ensure the entire system functions correctly, each system and / or sub-systems needs to be continuously monitored for the presence of any faults or malfunctions. This is a requirement detailed within the On-Board Diagnostic (OBD) legislation. To date, a physical model approach has been adopted by me automotive industry for the monitoring requirement of OBD legislation. However, this approach has restrictions from the available knowledge base and computational load required. A neural network technique incorporating Multivariant Statistical Process Control (MSPC) has been proposed as an alternative method of building interrelationships between the measured variables and monitoring the correct operation of the engine. Building upon earlier work for steady state fault detection, this paper details the use of non-linear models based on an Auto-associate Neural Network (ANN) for fault detection under transient engine operation. The theory and use of the technique is shown in this paper with the application to the detection of air leaks within the inlet manifold system of a modern gasoline engine whilst operated on a pseudo-drive cycle. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

Neural network based control for synchronous generators

In this paper, a Radial Basis Function neural network based AVR is proposed. A control strategy which generates local linear models from a global neural model on-line is used to derive controller feedback gains based on the Generalised Minimum Variance technique. Testing is carried out on a micromachine system which enables evaluation of practical implementation of the scheme. Constraints imposed by gathering training data, computational load, and memory requirements for the training algorithm are addressed.

Explaining young mortality

Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20's are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5-89, rather than 20-89 or 50-89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.

Heritability and Genome-Wide Association Study to Assess Genetic Differences between Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration Subtypes

PURPOSE: To investigate whether the 2 subtypes of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD), choroidal neovascularization (CNV), and geographic atrophy (GA) segregate separately in families and to identify which genetic variants are associated with these 2 subtypes. DESIGN: Sibling correlation study and genome-wide association study (GWAS). PARTICIPANTS: For the sibling correlation study, 209 sibling pairs with advanced AMD were included. For the GWAS, 2594 participants with advanced AMD subtypes and 4134 controls were included. Replication cohorts included 5383 advanced AMD participants and 15 240 controls. METHODS: Participants had the AMD grade assigned based on fundus photography, examination, or both. To determine heritability of advanced AMD subtypes, a sibling correlation study was performed. For the GWAS, genome-wide genotyping was conducted and 6 036 699 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were imputed. Then, the SNPs were analyzed with a generalized linear model controlling for genotyping platform and genetic ancestry. The most significant associations were evaluated in independent cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concordance of advanced AMD subtypes in sibling pairs and associations between SNPs with GA and CNV advanced AMD subtypes. RESULTS: The difference between the observed and expected proportion of siblings concordant for the same subtype of advanced AMD was different to a statistically significant degree (P = 4.2×10(-5)), meaning that in siblings of probands with CNV or GA, the same advanced subtype is more likely to develop. In the analysis comparing participants with CNV to those with GA, a statistically significant association was observed at the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus (rs10490924; odds ratio [OR], 1.47; P = 4.3×10(-9)), which was confirmed in the replication samples (OR, 1.38; P = 7.4×10(-14) for combined discovery and replication analysis). CONCLUSIONS: Whether CNV versus GA develops in a patient with AMD is determined in part by genetic variation. In this large GWAS meta-analysis and replication analysis, the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus confers increased risk for both advanced AMD subtypes, but imparts greater risk for CNV than for GA. This locus explains a small proportion of the excess sibling correlation for advanced AMD subtype. Other loci were detected with suggestive associations that differ for advanced AMD subtypes and deserve follow-up in additional studies. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Accounting for the effects of lipids in stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N values) analysis of skin and blubber of balaenopterid whales

RATIONALE Stable isotope values (d¹³C and d¹⁵N) of darted skin and blubber biopsies can shed light on habitat use and diet of cetaceans, which are otherwise difficult to study. Non-dietary factors affect isotopic variability, chiefly the depletion of C due to the presence of C-rich lipids. The efficacy of post hoc lipid-correction models (normalization) must be tested. METHODS For tissues with high natural lipid content (e.g., whale skin and blubber), chemical lipid extraction or normalization is necessary. C:N ratios, d¹³C values and d¹⁵N values were determined for duplicate control and lipid-extracted skin and blubber of fin (Balaenoptera physalus), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and minke whales (B. acutorostrata) by continuous-flow elemental analysis isotope ratio mass spectrometry (CF-EA-IRMS). Six different normalization models were tested to correct d¹³C values for the presence of lipids. RESULTS Following lipid extraction, significant increases in d¹³C values were observed for both tissues in the three species. Significant increases were also found for d¹⁵N values in minke whale skin and fin whale blubber. In fin whale skin, the d¹⁵N values decreased, with no change observed in humpback whale skin. Non-linear models generally out-performed linear models and the suitability of models varied by species and tissue, indicating the need for high model specificity, even among these closely related taxa. CONCLUSIONS Given the poor predictive power of the models to estimate lipid-free d13C values, and the unpredictable changes in d N values due to lipid-extraction, we recommend against arithmetical normalization in accounting for lipid effects on d13C values for balaenopterid skin or blubber samples. Rather, we recommend that duplicate analysis of lipid-extracted (d13C values) and non-treated tissues (d15N values) be used. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Organizational culture predicts job satisfaction and perceived clinical effectiveness in pediatric primary care practices

Background: In recent years, there has been a growing understanding that organizational culture is related to an organization's performance. However, fewstudies have examined organizational culture in medical group practices. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of organizational culture on provider job satisfaction and perceived clinical effectiveness in primary care pediatric practices. Research Design: This cross-sectional study included 36 primary care pediatric practices located in Connecticut. Participants: There were 374 participants in this study, which included 127 clinicians and 247 nonclinicians. Measures: Office managers completed a questionnaire that recorded staff and practice characteristics; all participants completed the Organizational Culture Scale, a questionnaire that assessed the practice on four cultural domains (i.e., group, developmental, rational, and hierarchical), and the Primary Care Organizational Questionnaire that evaluated perceived effectiveness and job satisfaction. Results: Hierarchical linear models using a restricted maximum likelihood estimation method were used to evaluate whether the practice culture types predicted job satisfaction and perceived effectiveness. Group culture was positively associated with both satisfaction and perceived effectiveness. In contrast, hierarchical and rational culture were negatively associated with both job satisfaction and perceived effectiveness. These relationships were true for clinicians, nonclinicians, and the practice as a whole. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that practice culture is associated with job satisfaction and perceived clinical effectiveness and that a group culture was associated with high job satisfaction and perceived effectiveness. Copyright © 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

A shared care model pilot for palliative home care in a rural area:Impact on symptoms, distress, and place of death

Context: Shared care models integrating family physician services with interdisciplinary palliative care specialist teams are critical to improve access to quality palliative home care and address multiple domains of end-of-life issues and needs. Objectives: To examine the impact of a shared care pilot program on the primary outcomes of symptom severity and emotional distress (patient and family separately) over time and, secondarily, the concordance between patient preferences and place of death. Methods: An inception cohort of patients (n = 95) with advanced, progressive disease, expected to die within six months, were recruited from three rural family physician group practices (21 physicians) and followed prospectively until death or pilot end. Serial measurement of symptoms, emotional distress (patient and family), and preferences for place of death was performed, with analysis of changes in distress outcomes assessed using t-tests and general linear models. Results: Symptoms trended toward improvement, with a significant reduction in anxiety from baseline to 14 days noted. Symptom and emotional distress were maintained below high severity (7-10), and a high rate of home death compared with population norms was observed. Conclusion: Future controlled studies are needed to examine outcomes for shared care models with comparison groups. Shared care models build on family physician capacity and as such are promising in the development of palliative home care programs to improve access to quality palliative home care and foster health system integration. © 2011 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase I and II biotransformation enzymes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, Lamarck, 1819) collected in front of an oil refinery

The aim of the present study was to investigate the responses of phase I and II biotransformation enzymes and levels of PAHs in the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, Lamarck, 1819) collected from three sites at different distance from an oil refinery. Phase I enzyme activities as NAD(P)H-cyt c red, NADH ferry red, B(a)PMO and phase II as UDPGT. GST were measured in digestive gland while 16 PAHs (US-EPA) in whole soft tissue. An added value to the data obtained in the present study rely on the RDA analysis which showed close correlations between PAHs levels and phase I enzyme activities in mussels collected in front of the refinery. And again a significant spatial correlation between B(a)P levels and NADPH-cyt c red activities was observed using linear models. No differences among sites for B(a) PMO and phase II GST activities were observed, while the application of UDPGT as biomarkers requires further investigation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing metabolic scaling theory using intraspecific allometries in Antarctic microarthropods

Quantitative scaling relationships among body mass, temperature and metabolic rate of organisms are still controversial, while resolution may be further complicated through the use of different and possibly inappropriate approaches to statistical analysis. We propose the application of a modelling strategy based on the theoretical approach of Akaike's information criteria and non-linear model fitting (nlm). Accordingly, we collated and modelled available data at intraspecific level on the individual standard metabolic rate of Antarctic microarthropods as a function of body mass (M), temperature (T), species identity (S) and high rank taxa to which species belong (G) and tested predictions from metabolic scaling theory (mass-metabolism allometric exponent b = 0.75, activation energy range 0.2-1.2 eV). We also performed allometric analysis based on logarithmic transformations (lm). Conclusions from lm and nlm approaches were different. Best-supported models from lm incorporated T, M and S. The estimates of the allometric scaling exponent linking body mass and metabolic rate resulted in a value of 0.696 +/- 0.105 (mean +/- 95% CI). In contrast, the four best-supported nlm models suggested that both the scaling exponent and activation energy significantly vary across the high rank taxa (Collembola, Cryptostigmata, Mesostigmata and Prostigmata) to which species belong, with mean values of b ranging from about 0.6 to 0.8. We therefore reached two conclusions: 1, published analyses of arthropod metabolism based on logarithmic data may be biased by data transformation; 2, non-linear models applied to Antarctic microarthropod metabolic rate suggest that intraspecific scaling of standard metabolic rate in Antarctic microarthropods is highly variable and can be characterised by scaling exponents that greatly vary within taxa, which may have biased previous interspecific comparisons that neglected intraspecific variability.

Energy expenditure during activity in the American lobster Homarus americanus:Correlations with body acceleration

How animals manage time and expend energy has implications for survivorship. Being able to measure key metabolic costs of animals under natural conditions is therefore an important tool in behavioral ecology. One method for estimating activity-specific metabolic rate is via derived measures of acceleration, often 'overall dynamic body acceleration' (ODBA), recorded by an instrumented acceleration logger. ODBA has been shown to correlate well with rate of oxygen consumption (V ?o) in a range of species during activity in the laboratory. This study devised a method for attaching acceleration loggers to decapod crustaceans and then correlated ODBA against concurrent respirometry readings to assess accelerometry as a proxy for activity-specific energy expenditure in a model species, the American lobster Homarus americanus. Where the instrumented animals exhibited a sufficient range of activity levels, positive linear relationships were found between V ?o and ODBA over 20min periods at a range of ambient temperatures (6, 13 and 20°C). Mixed effect linear models based on these data and morphometrics provided reasonably strong predictive power for estimating activity-specific V ?o from ODBA. These V ?o-ODBA calibrations demonstrate the potential of accelerometry as an effective predictor of behavior-specific metabolic rate of crustaceans in the wild during periods of activity. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

Comparing the decline in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in neighbouring countries with different healthcare systems

Objective
To examine age and gender specific trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in two neighbouring countries, the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Design Epidemiological study of time trends in CHD and stroke mortality.

Setting/patients
The populations of the ROI and NI, 1985–2010.

Interventions
None.

Main outcome measures
Directly age standardised CHD and stroke mortality rates were calculated and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify years where the slope of the linear trend changed significantly. This was performed separately for specific age groups (25–54, 55–64, 65–74 and 75–84 years) and by gender. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs are presented.

Results
There was a striking similarity between the two countries, with percentage change between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 of 67% and 69% in
CHD mortality, and 64% and 62% in stroke mortality for the ROI and NI, respectively. However, joinpoint analysis identified differences in the pace of change between the two countries. There was an accelerated pace of decline (negative APC) in mortality for both CHD and stroke in both countries from the mid-1990s (APC ROI −8% (95% CI −9.5 to 6.5) and NI −6.6% (−6.9 to −6.3)), but the accelerated decrease started later for CHD mortality in the ROI. In recent years, a levelling off in CHD mortality was observed in the 25–54 year age group in NI and in stroke mortality for men and women in the ROI.

Conclusions
While differences in the pace of change in mortality were observed at different time points, similar, substantial decreases in CHD and stroke mortality were achieved between 1985 and 1989 and between 2006 and 2010 in the ROI and NI despite important differences in health service structures. There is evidence of a levelling in mortality rates in some groups in recent years.