Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation

Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or potential flow models can be very fast to solve, they usually suffer from a poor accuracy in order to simulate real flows (transonic, viscous). On the other hand, more complex models such as the full Navier- Stokes equations provide high fidelity predictions but at a much higher computational cost. Thus, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time has to be fixed for engineering applications. A discretisation technique widely used within the industry is the so-called Finite Volume approach on unstructured meshes. This technique spatially discretises the flow motion equations onto a set of elements which form a mesh, a discrete representation of the continuous domain. Using this approach, for a given flow model equation, the accuracy and computational time mainly depend on the distribution of nodes forming the mesh. Therefore, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time might be obtained by carefully defining the mesh. However, defining an optimal mesh for complex flows and geometries requires a very high level expertize in fluid mechanics and numerical analysis, and in most cases a simple guess of regions of the computational domain which might affect the most the accuracy is impossible. Thus, it is desirable to have an automatized remeshing tool, which is more flexible with unstructured meshes than its structured counterpart. However, adaptive methods currently in use still have an opened question: how to efficiently drive the adaptation ? Pioneering sensors based on flow features generally suffer from a lack of reliability, so in the last decade more effort has been made in developing numerical error-based sensors, like for instance the adjoint-based adaptation sensors. While very efficient at adapting meshes for a given functional output, the latter method is very expensive as it requires to solve a dual set of equations and computes the sensor on an embedded mesh. Therefore, it would be desirable to develop a more affordable numerical error estimation method. The current work aims at estimating the truncation error, which arises when discretising a partial differential equation. These are the higher order terms neglected in the construction of the numerical scheme. The truncation error provides very useful information as it is strongly related to the flow model equation and its discretisation. On one hand, it is a very reliable measure of the quality of the mesh, therefore very useful in order to drive a mesh adaptation procedure. On the other hand, it is strongly linked to the flow model equation, so that a careful estimation actually gives information on how well a given equation is solved, which may be useful in the context of _ -extrapolation or zonal modelling. The following work is organized as follows: Chap. 1 contains a short review of mesh adaptation techniques as well as numerical error prediction. In the first section, Sec. 1.1, the basic refinement strategies are reviewed and the main contribution to structured and unstructured mesh adaptation are presented. Sec. 1.2 introduces the definitions of errors encountered when solving Computational Fluid Dynamics problems and reviews the most common approaches to predict them. Chap. 2 is devoted to the mathematical formulation of truncation error estimation in the context of finite volume methodology, as well as a complete verification procedure. Several features are studied, such as the influence of grid non-uniformities, non-linearity, boundary conditions and non-converged numerical solutions. This verification part has been submitted and accepted for publication in the Journal of Computational Physics. Chap. 3 presents a mesh adaptation algorithm based on truncation error estimates and compares the results to a feature-based and an adjoint-based sensor (in collaboration with Jorge Ponsín, INTA). Two- and three-dimensional cases relevant for validation in the aeronautical industry are considered. This part has been submitted and accepted in the AIAA Journal. An extension to Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes equations is also included, where _ -estimation-based mesh adaptation and _ -extrapolation are applied to viscous wing profiles. The latter has been submitted in the Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Keywords: mesh adaptation, numerical error prediction, finite volume Hoy en día, la Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional (CFD) es ampliamente utilizada dentro de la industria para obtener información sobre fenómenos fluidos. La Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional considera distintas modelizaciones de las ecuaciones fluidas (Potencial, Euler, Navier-Stokes, etc) para simular y predecir las fuerzas que actúan, por ejemplo, sobre una configuración de aeronave. El tiempo de cálculo y la precisión en la solución depende en gran medida de los modelos utilizados, así como de la dimensión espacial del problema considerado. Mientras que modelos simples basados en flujos perfectos, como modelos de flujos potenciales, se pueden resolver rápidamente, por lo general aducen de una baja precisión a la hora de simular flujos reales (viscosos, transónicos, etc). Por otro lado, modelos más complejos tales como el conjunto de ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes proporcionan predicciones de alta fidelidad, a expensas de un coste computacional mucho más elevado. Por lo tanto, en términos de aplicaciones de ingeniería se debe fijar un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo. Una técnica de discretización ampliamente utilizada en la industria es el método de los Volúmenes Finitos en mallas no estructuradas. Esta técnica discretiza espacialmente las ecuaciones del movimiento del flujo sobre un conjunto de elementos que forman una malla, una representación discreta del dominio continuo. Utilizando este enfoque, para una ecuación de flujo dado, la precisión y el tiempo computacional dependen principalmente de la distribución de los nodos que forman la malla. Por consiguiente, un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo se podría obtener definiendo cuidadosamente la malla, concentrando sus elementos en aquellas zonas donde sea estrictamente necesario. Sin embargo, la definición de una malla óptima para corrientes y geometrías complejas requiere un nivel muy alto de experiencia en la mecánica de fluidos y el análisis numérico, así como un conocimiento previo de la solución. Aspecto que en la mayoría de los casos no está disponible. Por tanto, es deseable tener una herramienta que permita adaptar los elementos de malla de forma automática, acorde a la solución fluida (remallado). Esta herramienta es generalmente más flexible en mallas no estructuradas que con su homóloga estructurada. No obstante, los métodos de adaptación actualmente en uso todavía dejan una pregunta abierta: cómo conducir de manera eficiente la adaptación. Sensores pioneros basados en las características del flujo en general, adolecen de una falta de fiabilidad, por lo que en la última década se han realizado grandes esfuerzos en el desarrollo numérico de sensores basados en el error, como por ejemplo los sensores basados en el adjunto. A pesar de ser muy eficientes en la adaptación de mallas para un determinado funcional, este último método resulta muy costoso, pues requiere resolver un doble conjunto de ecuaciones: la solución y su adjunta. Por tanto, es deseable desarrollar un método numérico de estimación de error más asequible. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar el error local de truncación, que aparece cuando se discretiza una ecuación en derivadas parciales. Estos son los términos de orden superior olvidados en la construcción del esquema numérico. El error de truncación proporciona una información muy útil sobre la solución: es una medida muy fiable de la calidad de la malla, obteniendo información que permite llevar a cabo un procedimiento de adaptación de malla. Está fuertemente relacionado al modelo matemático fluido, de modo que una estimación precisa garantiza la idoneidad de dicho modelo en un campo fluido, lo que puede ser útil en el contexto de modelado zonal. Por último, permite mejorar la precisión de la solución resolviendo un nuevo sistema donde el error local actúa como término fuente (_ -extrapolación). El presenta trabajo se organiza de la siguiente manera: Cap. 1 contiene una breve reseña de las técnicas de adaptación de malla, así como de los métodos de predicción de los errores numéricos. En la primera sección, Sec. 1.1, se examinan las estrategias básicas de refinamiento y se presenta la principal contribución a la adaptación de malla estructurada y no estructurada. Sec 1.2 introduce las definiciones de los errores encontrados en la resolución de problemas de Dinámica Computacional de Fluidos y se examinan los enfoques más comunes para predecirlos. Cap. 2 está dedicado a la formulación matemática de la estimación del error de truncación en el contexto de la metodología de Volúmenes Finitos, así como a un procedimiento de verificación completo. Se estudian varias características que influyen en su estimación: la influencia de la falta de uniformidad de la malla, el efecto de las no linealidades del modelo matemático, diferentes condiciones de contorno y soluciones numéricas no convergidas. Esta parte de verificación ha sido presentada y aceptada para su publicación en el Journal of Computational Physics. Cap. 3 presenta un algoritmo de adaptación de malla basado en la estimación del error de truncación y compara los resultados con sensores de featured-based y adjointbased (en colaboración con Jorge Ponsín del INTA). Se consideran casos en dos y tres dimensiones, relevantes para la validación en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo ha sido presentado y aceptado en el AIAA Journal. También se incluye una extensión de estos métodos a las ecuaciones RANS (Reynolds Average Navier- Stokes), en donde adaptación de malla basada en _ y _ -extrapolación son aplicados a perfiles con viscosidad de alas. Este último trabajo se ha presentado en los Actas de la Institución de Ingenieros Mecánicos, Parte G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Palabras clave: adaptación de malla, predicción del error numérico, volúmenes finitos

Prediction of near field overpressure from quarry blasting

This paper investigates the propagation of airblast or pressure waves in air produced by bench blasting (i.e. detonation of the explosive in a row of blastholes, breaking the burden of rock towards the free vertical face of the block). Peak overpressure is calculated as a function of blasting parameters (explosive mass per delay and velocity at which the detonation sequence proceeds along the bench) and the polar coordinates of the position of interest (distance to the source and azimuth with respect to the free face). The model has been fitted to empirical data using linear least squares. The data set is composed of 122 airblast records monitored at distances less than 400 m in 41 production blasts carried out in two quarries. The model is statistically significant and has a determination coefficient of 0.87. The formula is validated from 12 airblast measurements gathered in five additional blasts.

Simulación de componentes no estacionarias de viento en orografías complejas

Realistic operation of helicopter flight simulators in complex topographies (such as urban environments) requires appropriate prediction of the incoming wind, and this prediction should be made in real time. Unfortunately, the wind topology around complex topographies shows time-dependent, fully nonlinear, turbulent patterns (i.e., wakes) whose simulation cannot be made using computationally inexpensive tools based on corrected potential approximations. Instead, the full Navier-Stokes plus some kind of turbulent modeling is necessary, which is quite computationally expensive. The complete unsteady flow depends on two parameters, namely the velocity and orientation of the free stream flow. The aim of this MSc thesis is to develop a methodology for the real time simulation of these complex flows. For simplicity, the flow around a single building (20 mx20 m cross section and 100 m height) is considered, with free stream velocity in the range 5-25 m/s. Because of the square cross section, the problem shows two reflection symmetries, which allows for restricting the orientations to the range 0° < a. < 45°. The methodology includes an offline preprocess and the online operation. The preprocess consists in three steps: An appropriate, unstructured mesh is selected in which the flow is sim¬ulated using OpenFOAM, and this is done for 33 combinations of 3 free stream intensities and 11 orientations. For each of these, the simulation proceeds for a sufficiently large time as to eliminate transients. This step is quite computationally expensive. Each flow field is post-processed using a combination of proper orthogonal decomposition, fast Fourier transform, and a convenient optimization tool, which identifies the relevant frequencies (namely, both the basic frequencies and their harmonics) and modes in the computational mesh. This combination includes several new ingredients to filter errors out and identify the relevant spatio-temporal patterns. Note that, in principle, the basic frequencies depend on both the intensity and the orientation of the free stream flow. The outcome of this step is a set of modes (vectors containing the three velocity components at all mesh points) for the various Fourier components, intensities, and orientations, which can be organized as a third order tensor. This step is fairly computationally inexpensive. The above mentioned tensor is treated using a combination of truncated high order singular value, decomposition and appropriate one-dimensional interpolation (as in Lorente, Velazquez, Vega, J. Aircraft, 45 (2008) 1779-1788). The outcome is a tensor representation of both the relevant fre¬quencies and the associated Fourier modes for a given pair of values of the free stream flow intensity and orientation. This step is fairly compu¬tationally inexpensive. The online, operation requires just reconstructing the time-dependent flow field from its Fourier representation, which is extremely computationally inex¬pensive. The whole method is quite robust.

Consultoría en el marco económico-financiero de la empresa

Muchas de las grandes iniciativas empresariales, se ven truncadas por falta de un adecuado análisis económico-financiero. Incluso, muchas grandes ideas no son implantadas correctamente en el primer intento por este motivo, y son otras personas las que consiguen posteriormente el éxito de esas brillantes ideas gracias a una correcta aproximación financiera. Las empresas necesitan definir sus objetivos, establecer las para lograrlos, identificar las personas responsables de su ejecución (sus roles y funciones) y elaborar un plan económico-financiero que recoja el estudio de inversiones necesarias, el análisis de costes, la previsión de ingresos, así como la estrategia financiera más adecuada para la captación de los fondos necesarios para llevar a cabo las acciones programadas. Una vez iniciado el proyecto empresarial, será imprescindible realizar un seguimiento y control de la evolución (integración), tomando las medidas que se estimen oportunas para mantener el rumbo adecuado durante todo el tiempo de actividad. En este trabajo, aplicaremos las metodologías y buenas prácticas de la gestión de proyectos, como marco estructurado que nos permita abordar las principales cuestiones económico-financieras a tener en cuenta a la hora de enfrentarnos a un proyecto empresarial, para contribuir, en la medida de lo posible, a que los emprendedores tengan en cuenta estas cuestiones, facilitando así el desarrollo de negocios, en un difícil entorno económico de crisis como el que actualmente estamos viviendo en España, y animando de esta manera a optar por la iniciativa emprendedora, tratando de minimizar el riesgo en base al contenido. ---ABSTRACT---Lack of adequate economic and financial analysis truncates many of the entrepreneurship and innovation programs. Because of that reason, many great ideas are not even correctly implemented on the first attempt, and the person who finds the proper financial approach, succeed. All the enterprises have to establish clear objectives, actions to accomplish those objectives, assign roles, responsibilities and executive functions to specific people. Elaborate funding plan that contains surveys on necessary investments, cost analysis, estimate the income, liquid assets and also financial strategy suitable for fundraising to finance programmed actions. Once the project has been executed it is essential to monitor and control the development and integration adopting measures accordingly to the needs. This thesis applies methodology and best practice of project management as structured framework for the principal economic and financial issues facing business project. It is necessary contribution to entrepreneurs understanding of business, therefore facilitates business development in such rough environment as Spain is at this moment, and at the same time encourages adopting entrepreneur’s solution as less risky one. This document aims to explore all the economic and financial issues from methodological point of view based on my own professional experience, resulting in helping to understand the importance that economy and finances have in developing adequate corporate strategy. Crisis has highlighted inadequate functionality of many companies. Most popular first symptom is lack of cash flow that deteriorates the company, and results in suspension of payments followed by closing. In other cases, difficulties appear due to poor financial management of committed resources; to be observed in lack of prevision and planning or incorrect basic functionality and operational matters on daily basis. What would be your advice to someone who have magnificent business idea however no knowledge on how to handle finances in order to succeed in initiating and executing the project? Despite of the fact that the central nucleus of this paper is at economics and finances area, all the other concepts and topics given during master will be revived; for example business strategy, consultants abilities, organization and standard processes, among others, are impregnated with knowledge of project management.

Terremoto 2010 en Chile y vivienda social: resultados y aprendizajes para recomendación de políticas públicas

El territorio chileno esta propenso, desde antes que se constituyera como nación, al impacto del comportamiento de la naturaleza que le es inherente y que también le produce daños. Está representado en los seísmos, los más dañinos. Todavía, la sociedad chilena no termina de comprender que esos daños, son parte de un desequilibrio de una convivencia armoniosa entre ella y esa naturaleza, puesto que el ser humano que vive y habita sobre ella, también lo es. Así entonces, cada vez que el territorio y su espacio son remecidos por los seísmos, la naturaleza, manifestada en la sociedad, adquiere nuevos aprendizajes para mejorar la respuesta al próximo evento. El terremoto 2010 de 8.8° Richter, fue el segundo de mayor magnitud después del otro que hasta ahora, es el más grande del planeta, y que pudo ser medido. Aquel, fue el terremoto de Valdivia de 9,5° Richter, ocurrido el 22 de mayo de 1960. Las sociedades no son estáticas, cambian, son dinámicas. Esta vez el seísmo del 2010, ocurrió en una sociedad que hace ya 35 años, adoptó un modelo de economía de libre mercado. La pobreza que tenía a 1990, era de aproximadamente, un 40%. La del 2010, de un 14%. Durante la dictadura militar hubo otro seísmo de 7,8° Richter, recién instalándose el modelo aludido. El del 2010, permite sacar conclusiones en el contexto de este modelo económico. Los resultados aparentemente son interesantes en cuanto a que hubo pocas víctimas pero por otra parte, hubo un gran daño económico. La tesis profundiza en el impacto del seísmo en la dimensión del parque habitacional construido y de la vivienda social y en los habitantes más pobres y vulnerables. Es la primera investigación sobre seísmos y vivienda social en Chile. Se asume la hipótesis que ciertas variables por una parte, y una cultura antisísmica por otra, están presentes y han penetrado en los sectores populares durante los últimos 50 años y que ello, podría estar en la base de los resultados obtenidos. Se plantea una suerte de “matrimonio bien avenido” entre el habitante y políticas públicas en vivienda. De ello, se derivan recomendaciones para mejorar los avances en el problema investigado que se contextualizan en referencia al marco teórico elaborado. Sin embargo, y no obstante lo investigado, lo ya avanzado no garantiza buenos resultados en el próximo evento, Por ello, los aprendizajes nutren a otros, nuevos, que acompañarán a la sociedad chilena en su esencia e identidad como nación. ABSTRACT Long before its establishment as an independent nation, the Chilean territory has been prone to the impact of nature, which is an inherent and damaging feature of this land. Such an impact is represented by earthquakes, which are regarded as the most damaging natural disasters. Today, the Chilean society is still unable to understand that these impacts are part of an unbalanced coexistence between individuals and nature since human beings, who live and inhabit this space, are also an element of nature. Therefore, each time this territory is hit by earthquakes, nature —represented by society— learns new lessons in order to provide a better response to future events. The 2010 earthquake, which rated 8.8 on the Richter scale, was the second largest earthquake after the most powerful earthquake ever recorded. Such an event was the Valdivia earthquake of May 22, 1960, which rated 9.5 on the Richter scale. Societies are not static as they are changing and dynamic. The 2010 earthquake took place within a context in which society operated under a free market economy model that had been running for 35 years. As of 1990, 40 per cent of the population lived in poverty; in 2010, such a figure was reduced to 14 per cent. Likewise, a magnitude 7.8 quake struck the country during the military regime period in the early days of the above model. The 2010 earthquake allows us to draw some conclusions within the context of this economic model. Results are interesting since there were few fatalities but significant economic loss. This thesis provides insights into the impact of the 2010 earthquake on the housing stock, social housing and those living in poverty and vulnerability. This is the first research on earthquakes and social housing conducted in Chile. The hypothesis is that certain variables and anti-seismic culture have permeated popular segments of the population over the last 50 years. The latter may be at the basis of the results obtained during this research. Likewise, this study proposes a certain “happy marriage” between the inhabitant and public policies on housing. The above offers some recommendations intended to further explore this issue; these suggestions are contextualized according to the theoretical framework developed in this research. However, current progress on this matter does not ensure positive results in the event of an earthquake. This is why these lessons will serve as models for future events, which are intrinsically tied to local society and Chilean identity.

Influence of body composition on gait Kknetics throughout pregnancy and postpartum period

Pregnancy leads to several changes in body composition and morphology of women. It is not clear whether the biomechanical changes occurring in this period are due exclusively to body composition and size or to other physiological factors. The purpose was to quantify the morphology and body composition of women throughout pregnancy and in the postpartum period and identify the contribution of these parameters on the lower limb joints kinetic during gait. Eleven women were assessed longitudinally, regarding anthropometric, body composition, and kinetic parameters of gait. Body composition and body dimensions showed a significant increase during pregnancy and a decrease in the postpartum period. In the postpartum period, body composition was similar to the 1st trimester, except for triceps skinfold, total calf area, and body mass index, with higher results than at the beginning of pregnancy. Regression models were developed to predict women’s internal loading through anthropometric variables. Four models include variables associated with the amount of fat; four models include variables related to overall body weight; three models include fat-free mass; one model includes the shape of the trunk as a predictor variable. Changes in maternal body composition and morphology largely determine kinetic dynamics of the joints in pregnant women.

A TECNOLOGIA DA INFORMAÇÃO COMO ELEMENTO DE MELHORIA DOS PROCESSOS FINANCEIROS DA PEQUENA E MÉDIA EMPRESA

A complexidade do ambiente em que vivem as organizações nos dias de hoje exige Sistemas de Informações (SIs) eficientes, que sirvam como apoio à tomada de decisão por parte dos gestores, em especial no que diz respeito às questões ligadas à Tecnologia da Informação (TI) diante dos novos paradigmas de gestão enfrentados pelas Pequenas e Médias Empresas (PMEs). Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral a avaliação da percepção dos gestores das PMEs brasileiras, quanto ao impacto do uso da TI como elemento de melhoria dos processos financeiros das organizações. Para que tal objetivo fosse alcançado, foram desenvolvidos e estudados os seguintes objetivos específicos: verificar de que forma a TI é percebida como útil nas pequenas e médias empresas, em especial na automação de rotinas financeiras de tesouraria e fluxo de caixa; verificar se a automação de rotinas financeiras com a utilização da TI subsidia os processos de tomada de decisão em tais empresas e, ainda, verificar se sua utilização é vista como uma vantagem estratégica. Em seu levantamento bibliográfico, este trabalho apresenta conceitos relacionados a Competição, Pequena e Média Empresa, Estratégia e Gestão de Competência. Esses conceitos foram encontrados na literatura e em artigos na imprensa especializada. Na pesquisa empírica realizada, este trabalho procurou, através de estudos de casos múltiplos em 5 empresas, aprofundar as questões relativas à percepção dos gestores em relação à TI utilizada nos procedimentos financeiros implantados nas organizações que dirigem. O planejamento da amostra foi feito de maneira a permitir não só a análise individual de cada respondente como também a análise das organizações onde atuavam. As conclusões a que este estudo chegou são: a) os gestores têm a percepção de que a utilização de TI nas rotinas financeiras e de fluxo de caixa é imprescindível, pois a automação é necessária para a manutenção e a agilização dos processos de relacionamento com clientes e fornecedores; b) a TI pode subsidiar processos de tomada de decisão estruturada, especificamente as decisões que tratam de rotinas financeiras. Outro aspecto que fica claro na percepção dos gestores é que a dependência da empresa aos SIs aumenta com o crescimento da empresa e, conseqüentemente, com o volume de informações com que os gestores têm de lidar; c) na percepção dos gestores, a utilização de TI nos processos financeiros das PMEs é importante, mas eles não são os determinantes da vantagem estratégica da organização. Os estudos permitiram duas outras observações importantes: d) as estruturas organizacionais das empresas estudadas eram pertinentes aos itens de TI que possuíam; e) há diferença de visão entre gestores e subordinados. A conclusão deste estudo, que responde ao objetivo geral, é que, na percepção dos gestores, a TI tem um impacto positivo como elemento de melhoria dos processos financeiros das organizações, porém não é o fator que define a vantagem estratégica das organizações: há outros aspectos que devem ser avaliados, e a construção de sistemas complexos que abrangem outras áreas da organização é necessária.(AU)

A TECNOLOGIA DA INFORMAÇÃO COMO ELEMENTO DE MELHORIA DOS PROCESSOS FINANCEIROS DA PEQUENA E MÉDIA EMPRESA

A complexidade do ambiente em que vivem as organizações nos dias de hoje exige Sistemas de Informações (SIs) eficientes, que sirvam como apoio à tomada de decisão por parte dos gestores, em especial no que diz respeito às questões ligadas à Tecnologia da Informação (TI) diante dos novos paradigmas de gestão enfrentados pelas Pequenas e Médias Empresas (PMEs). Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral a avaliação da percepção dos gestores das PMEs brasileiras, quanto ao impacto do uso da TI como elemento de melhoria dos processos financeiros das organizações. Para que tal objetivo fosse alcançado, foram desenvolvidos e estudados os seguintes objetivos específicos: verificar de que forma a TI é percebida como útil nas pequenas e médias empresas, em especial na automação de rotinas financeiras de tesouraria e fluxo de caixa; verificar se a automação de rotinas financeiras com a utilização da TI subsidia os processos de tomada de decisão em tais empresas e, ainda, verificar se sua utilização é vista como uma vantagem estratégica. Em seu levantamento bibliográfico, este trabalho apresenta conceitos relacionados a Competição, Pequena e Média Empresa, Estratégia e Gestão de Competência. Esses conceitos foram encontrados na literatura e em artigos na imprensa especializada. Na pesquisa empírica realizada, este trabalho procurou, através de estudos de casos múltiplos em 5 empresas, aprofundar as questões relativas à percepção dos gestores em relação à TI utilizada nos procedimentos financeiros implantados nas organizações que dirigem. O planejamento da amostra foi feito de maneira a permitir não só a análise individual de cada respondente como também a análise das organizações onde atuavam. As conclusões a que este estudo chegou são: a) os gestores têm a percepção de que a utilização de TI nas rotinas financeiras e de fluxo de caixa é imprescindível, pois a automação é necessária para a manutenção e a agilização dos processos de relacionamento com clientes e fornecedores; b) a TI pode subsidiar processos de tomada de decisão estruturada, especificamente as decisões que tratam de rotinas financeiras. Outro aspecto que fica claro na percepção dos gestores é que a dependência da empresa aos SIs aumenta com o crescimento da empresa e, conseqüentemente, com o volume de informações com que os gestores têm de lidar; c) na percepção dos gestores, a utilização de TI nos processos financeiros das PMEs é importante, mas eles não são os determinantes da vantagem estratégica da organização. Os estudos permitiram duas outras observações importantes: d) as estruturas organizacionais das empresas estudadas eram pertinentes aos itens de TI que possuíam; e) há diferença de visão entre gestores e subordinados. A conclusão deste estudo, que responde ao objetivo geral, é que, na percepção dos gestores, a TI tem um impacto positivo como elemento de melhoria dos processos financeiros das organizações, porém não é o fator que define a vantagem estratégica das organizações: há outros aspectos que devem ser avaliados, e a construção de sistemas complexos que abrangem outras áreas da organização é necessária.(AU)

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Agricultural Credit Market Institutions: A Comparison of Selected European Countries. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 33, January 2013

This paper describes and compares the institutional framework of the agricultural credit markets in selected European countries. The institutions can be both formal (rules, regulations, authorities and actors) and informal (norms, values and relations). They also interact and in situations where the formal institutions are weak, the informal ones increase in importance. The study is based on a questionnaire sent to agricultural financial experts in selected countries. The case studies show that credit regulations are typically general, with no specific regulations for the agricultural credit market. On the other hand, several countries support agricultural credit in various forms, implying that the governments do not perceive the general credit market to function in the case of agricultural firms. In a risk assessment, the most frequent reasons for rejecting a loan application are all linked to economic performance and the situation of the farmer. Personal characteristics, such as educational level or lack of experience, were generally perceived as less influential. Another interesting point when it comes to risk assessment is that in some countries the importance of asset-based lending compared with cash flow-based lending seems to differ when concerning a first-time applicant and when there is an application to extend a loan. To get an idea of the availability of credit, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was calculated, and it showed remarkably low values for Poland and Slovakia. For all the countries, the calculated value was lower than what the financial experts would have expected. This might imply credit rationing in agriculture in some of the countries studied. The financial experts all judged the possibility of an agricultural firm obtaining a loan as higher than that for other small rural firms, implying that the latter are also credit-rationed.

Influence of body composition on gait Kknetics throughout pregnancy and postpartum period

Pregnancy leads to several changes in body composition and morphology of women. It is not clear whether the biomechanical changes occurring in this period are due exclusively to body composition and size or to other physiological factors. The purpose was to quantify the morphology and body composition of women throughout pregnancy and in the postpartum period and identify the contribution of these parameters on the lower limb joints kinetic during gait. Eleven women were assessed longitudinally, regarding anthropometric, body composition, and kinetic parameters of gait. Body composition and body dimensions showed a significant increase during pregnancy and a decrease in the postpartum period. In the postpartum period, body composition was similar to the 1st trimester, except for triceps skinfold, total calf area, and body mass index, with higher results than at the beginning of pregnancy. Regression models were developed to predict women’s internal loading through anthropometric variables. Four models include variables associated with the amount of fat; four models include variables related to overall body weight; three models include fat-free mass; one model includes the shape of the trunk as a predictor variable. Changes in maternal body composition and morphology largely determine kinetic dynamics of the joints in pregnant women.

Employment risks from present credit and business liquidity conditions : hearings before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, second session, May 26 and 27; and June 8 and 9, 1982.

Item 1013-A, 1013-B (microfiche)

The Community Mental Health Medicaid Trust Fund : background, analyses and recommendations.

"December 2005."