Operational expenditure costs for wave energy projects and impacts on financial returns

This paper examines 'availability' and the input metrics of operational expenditure (OPEX) for wave energy projects and reports on a case study which assesses the impact of these inputs on project profit returns. Case study simulations modelled a 75 MW wave energy project at two locations; the west coast of Ireland and the north coast of Portugal. Access and availability with respect to weather windows at both locations are discussed and their impact on energy output and wave farm operations is quantified. The input metrics used to calculate OPEX of wave energy projects are defined as well as the impact of OPEX on project net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). Results indicate that access and resultant availability factors have a significant impact on case study results by reducing energy output and correspondingly financial returns. Furthermore, the technology maturity level designated for a project also impacts on availability factors and consequently energy output and NPV. Case study profits proved to be very sensitive to annual OPEX, especially if overhaul and replacement costs were accounted for. As a result of the impact of 'availability' on project profit returns. Feed-in tariffs will need to be tailored to the location in question as well as the device technology maturity level, with case study simulations indicating that high FIT will be required to support early stage WEC projects. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructal Design of Energy Systems

This dissertation shows the use of Constructal law to find the relation between the morphing of the system configuration and the improvements in the global performance of the complex flow system. It shows that the better features of both flow and heat transfer architecture can be found and predicted by using the constructal law in energy systems. Chapter 2 shows the effect of flow configuration on the heat transfer performance of a spiral shaped pipe embedded in a cylindrical conducting volume. Several configurations were considered. The optimal spacings between the spiral turns and spire planes exist, such that the volumetric heat transfer rate is maximal. The optimized features of the heat transfer architecture are robust. Chapter 3 shows the heat transfer performance of a helically shaped pipe embedded in a cylindrical conducting volume. It shows that the optimized features of the heat transfer architecture are robust with respect to changes in several physical parameters. Chapter 4 reports analytically the formulas for effective permeability in several configurations of fissured systems, using the closed-form description of tree networks designed to provide flow access. The permeability formulas do not vary much from one tree design to the next, suggesting that similar formulas may apply to naturally fissured porous media with unknown precise details, which occur in natural reservoirs. Chapter 5 illustrates a counterflow heat exchanger consists of two plenums with a core. The results show that the overall flow and thermal resistance are lowest when the core is absent. Overall, the constructal design governs the evolution of flow configuration in nature and energy systems.

Design of Latent Thermal Energy Storage Systems

This dissertation documents the results of a theoretical and numerical study of time dependent storage of energy by melting a phase change material. The heating is provided along invading lines, which change from single-line invasion to tree-shaped invasion. Chapter 2 identifies the special design feature of distributing energy storage in time-dependent fashion on a territory, when the energy flows by fluid flow from a concentrated source to points (users) distributed equidistantly on the area. The challenge in this chapter is to determine the architecture of distributed energy storage. The chief conclusion is that the finite amount of storage material should be distributed proportionally with the distribution of the flow rate of heating agent arriving on the area. The total time needed by the source stream to ‘invade’ the area is cumulative (the sum of the storage times required at each storage site), and depends on the energy distribution paths and the sequence in which the users are served by the source stream. Chapter 3 shows theoretically that the melting process consists of two phases: “invasion” thermal diffusion along the invading line, which is followed by “consolidation” as heat diffuses perpendicularly to the invading line. This chapter also reports the duration of both phases and the evolution of the melt layer around the invading line during the two-dimensional and three-dimensional invasion. It also shows that the amount of melted material increases in time according to a curve shaped as an S. These theoretical predictions are validated by means of numerical simulations in chapter 4. This chapter also shows that the heat transfer rate density increases (i.e., the S curve becomes steeper) as the complexity and number of degrees of freedom of the structure are increased, in accord with the constructal law. The optimal geometric features of the tree structure are detailed in this chapter. Chapter 5 documents a numerical study of time-dependent melting where the heat transfer is convection dominated, unlike in chapter 3 and 4 where the melting is ruled by pure conduction. In accord with constructal design, the search is for effective heat-flow architectures. The volume-constrained improvement of the designs for heat flow begins with assuming the simplest structure, where a single line serves as heat source. Next, the heat source is endowed with freedom to change its shape as it grows. The objective of the numerical simulations is to discover the geometric features that lead to the fastest melting process. The results show that the heat transfer rate density increases as the complexity and number of degrees of freedom of the structure are increased. Furthermore, the angles between heat invasion lines have a minor effect on the global performance compared to other degrees of freedom: number of branching levels, stem length, and branch lengths. The effect of natural convection in the melt zone is documented.

On thermodynamics in the primary power conversion of oscillating water column wave energy converters

The paper presents an investigation to the thermodynamics of the air flow in the air chamber for the oscillating water column wave energy converters, in which the oscillating water surface in the water column pressurizes or de-pressurises the air in the chamber. To study the thermodynamics and the compressibility of the air in the chamber, a method is developed in this research: the power take-off is replaced with an accepted semi-empirical relationship between the air flow rate and the oscillating water column chamber pressure, and the thermodynamic process is simplified as an isentropic process. This facilitates the use of a direct expression for the work done on the power take-off by the flowing air and the generation of a single differential equation that defines the thermodynamic process occurring inside the air chamber. Solving the differential equation, the chamber pressure can be obtained if the interior water surface motion is known or the chamber volume (thus the interior water surface motion) if the chamber pressure is known. As a result, the effects of the air compressibility can be studied. Examples given in the paper have shown the compressibility, and its effects on the power losses for large oscillating water column devices.

Capacity Investment in Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

This dissertation studies capacity investments in energy sources, with a focus on renewable technologies, such as solar and wind energy. We develop analytical models to provide insights for policymakers and use real data from the state of Texas to corroborate our findings.

We first take a strategic perspective and focus on electricity pricing policies. Specifically, we investigate the capacity investments of a utility firm in renewable and conventional energy sources under flat and peak pricing policies. We consider generation patterns and intermittency of solar and wind energy in relation to the electricity demand throughout a day. We find that flat pricing leads to a higher investment level for solar energy and it can still lead to more investments in wind energy if considerable amount of wind energy is generated throughout the day.

In the second essay, we complement the first one by focusing on the problem of matching supply with demand in every operating period (e.g., every five minutes) from the perspective of a utility firm. We study the interaction between renewable and conventional sources with different levels of operational flexibility, i.e., the possibility

of quickly ramping energy output up or down. We show that operational flexibility determines these interactions: renewable and inflexible sources (e.g., nuclear energy) are substitutes, whereas renewable and flexible sources (e.g., natural gas) are complements.

In the final essay, rather than the capacity investments of the utility firms, we focus on the capacity investments of households in rooftop solar panels. We investigate whether or not these investments may cause a utility death spiral effect, which is a vicious circle of increased solar adoption and higher electricity prices. We observe that the current rate-of-return regulation may lead to a death spiral for utility firms. We show that one way to reverse the spiral effect is to allow the utility firms to maximize their profits by determining electricity prices.

Path Optimization in Free Energy Calculations

Free energy calculations are a computational method for determining thermodynamic quantities, such as free energies of binding, via simulation.

Currently, due to computational and algorithmic limitations, free energy calculations are limited in scope.

In this work, we propose two methods for improving the efficiency of free energy calculations.

First, we expand the state space of alchemical intermediates, and show that this expansion enables us to calculate free energies along lower variance paths.

We use Q-learning, a reinforcement learning technique, to discover and optimize paths at low computational cost.

Second, we reduce the cost of sampling along a given path by using sequential Monte Carlo samplers.

We develop a new free energy estimator, pCrooks (pairwise Crooks), a variant on the Crooks fluctuation theorem (CFT), which enables decomposition of the variance of the free energy estimate for discrete paths, while retaining beneficial characteristics of CFT.

Combining these two advancements, we show that for some test models, optimal expanded-space paths have a nearly 80% reduction in variance relative to the standard path.

Additionally, our free energy estimator converges at a more consistent rate and on average 1.8 times faster when we enable path searching, even when the cost of path discovery and refinement is considered.

Coral energy reserves and calcification in a high-CO2 world at two temperatures

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA) and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate) together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm), and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0°C) within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53%) in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

Differential impacts of elevated CO2 and acidosis on the energy budget of gill and liver cells from Atlantic cod

Ocean acidification impacts fish and other marine species through increased seawater PCO2 levels (hypercapnia). Knowledge of the physiological mechanisms mediating effects in various tissues of fish is incomplete. Here we tested the effects of extracellular hypercapnia and acidosis on energy metabolism of gill and liver cells of Atlantic cod. Exposure media mimicked blood conditions in vivo, either during normo- or hypercapnia and at control or acidic extracellular pH (pHe). We determined metabolic rate and energy expenditure for protein biosynthesis, Na+/K+-ATPase and H+-ATPase and considered nutrition status by measurements of metabolic rate and protein biosynthesis in media with and without free amino acids (FAA). Addition of FAA stimulated hepatic but not branchial oxygen consumption. Normo- and hypercapnic acidosis as well as hypercapnia at control pHe depressed metabolic stimulation of hepatocytes. In gill cells, acidosis depressed respiration independent of PCO2 and FAA levels. For both cell types, depressed respiration was not correlated with the same reduction in energy allocated to protein biosynthesis or Na+/K+-ATPase. Hepatic energy expenditure for protein synthesis and Na+/K+- ATPase was even elevated at acidic compared to control pHe suggesting increased costs for ion regulation and cel- lular reorganization. Hypercapnia at control pHe strongly reduced oxygen demand of branchial Na+/K+-ATPase with a similar trend for H+-ATPase. We conclude that extracellular acidosis triggers metabolic depression in gill and metabolically stimulated liver cells. Additionally, hypercapnia itself seems to limit capacities for metabolic usage of amino acids in liver cells while it decreases the use and costs of ion regulatory ATPases in gill cells.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and energy status in the periwinkle Littorina littorea during experiments, 2011

In the future, marine organisms will face the challenge of coping with multiple environmental changes associated with increased levels of atmospheric Pco2, such as ocean warming and acidification. To predict how organisms may or may not meet these challenges, an in-depth understanding of the physiological and biochemical mechanisms underpinning organismal responses to climate change is needed. Here, we investigate the effects of elevated Pco2 and temperature on the whole-organism and cellular physiology of the periwinkle Littorina littorea. Metabolic rates (measured as respiration rates), adenylate energy nucleotide concentrations and indexes, and end-product metabolite concentrations were measured. Compared with values for control conditions, snails decreased their respiration rate by 31% in response to elevated Pco2 and by 15% in response to a combination of increased Pco2 and temperature. Decreased respiration rates were associated with metabolic reduction and an increase in end-product metabolites in acidified treatments, indicating an increased reliance on anaerobic metabolism. There was also an interactive effect of elevated Pco2 and temperature on total adenylate nucleotides, which was apparently compensated for by the maintenance of adenylate energy charge via AMP deaminase activity. Our findings suggest that marine intertidal organisms are likely to exhibit complex physiological responses to future environmental drivers, with likely negative effects on growth, population dynamics, and, ultimately, ecosystem processes.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, sample density and Strongylocentrotus purpuratus size, filtering and respiration rate during experiments, 2011

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are acidifying the world's oceans. A growing body of evidence is showing that ocean acidification impacts growth and developmental rates of marine invertebrates. Here we test the impact of elevated seawater pCO2 (129 Pa, 1271 µatm) on early development, larval metabolic and feeding rates in a marine model organism, the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Growth and development was assessed by measuring total body length, body rod length, postoral rod length and posterolateral rod length. Comparing these parameters between treatments suggests that larvae suffer from a developmental delay (by ca. 8%) rather than from the previously postulated reductions in size at comparable developmental stages. Further, we found maximum increases in respiration rates of + 100 % under elevated pCO2, while body length corrected feeding rates did not differ between larvae from both treatments. Calculating scope for growth illustrates that larvae raised under high pCO2 spent an average of 39 to 45% of the available energy for somatic growth, while control larvae could allocate between 78 and 80% of the available energy into growth processes. Our results highlight the importance of defining a standard frame of reference when comparing a given parameter between treatments, as observed differences can be easily due to comparison of different larval ages with their specific set of biological characters.

A new method for resolving uncertainty of energy requirements in large water breathers: the ‘mega-flume’ seagoing swim-tunnel respirometer

Body size is a key determinant of metabolic rate, but logistical constraints have led to a paucity of energetics measurements from large water-breathing animals. As a result, estimating energy requirements of large fish generally relies on extrapolation of metabolic rate from individuals of lower body mass using allometric relationships that are notoriously variable. Swim-tunnel respirometry is the ‘gold standard’ for measuring active metabolic rates in water-breathing animals, yet previous data are entirely derived from body masses <10 kg – at least one order of magnitude lower than the body masses of many top-order marine predators. Here, we describe the design and testing of a new method for measuring metabolic rates of large water-breathing animals: a c. 26 000 L seagoing ‘mega-flume’ swim-tunnel respirometer. We measured the swimming metabolic rate of a 2·1-m, 36-kg zebra shark Stegostoma fasciatum within this new mega-flume and compared the results to data we collected from other S. fasciatum (3·8–47·7 kg body mass) swimming in static respirometers and previously published measurements of active metabolic rate measurements from other shark species. The mega-flume performed well during initial tests, with intra- and interspecific comparisons suggesting accurate metabolic rate measurements can be obtained with this new tool. Inclusion of our data showed that the scaling exponent of active metabolic rate with mass for sharks ranging from 0·13 to 47·7 kg was 0·79; a similar value to previous estimates for resting metabolic rates in smaller fishes. We describe the operation and usefulness of this new method in the context of our current uncertainties surrounding energy requirements of large water-breathing animals. We also highlight the sensitivity of mass-extrapolated energetic estimates in large aquatic animals and discuss the consequences for predicting ecosystem impacts such as trophic cascades.

A new method for resolving uncertainty of energy requirements in large water breathers: the ‘mega-flume’ seagoing swim-tunnel respirometer

Body size is a key determinant of metabolic rate, but logistical constraints have led to a paucity of energetics measurements from large water-breathing animals. As a result, estimating energy requirements of large fish generally relies on extrapolation of metabolic rate from individuals of lower body mass using allometric relationships that are notoriously variable. Swim-tunnel respirometry is the ‘gold standard’ for measuring active metabolic rates in water-breathing animals, yet previous data are entirely derived from body masses <10 kg – at least one order of magnitude lower than the body masses of many top-order marine predators. Here, we describe the design and testing of a new method for measuring metabolic rates of large water-breathing animals: a c. 26 000 L seagoing ‘mega-flume’ swim-tunnel respirometer. We measured the swimming metabolic rate of a 2·1-m, 36-kg zebra shark Stegostoma fasciatum within this new mega-flume and compared the results to data we collected from other S. fasciatum (3·8–47·7 kg body mass) swimming in static respirometers and previously published measurements of active metabolic rate measurements from other shark species. The mega-flume performed well during initial tests, with intra- and interspecific comparisons suggesting accurate metabolic rate measurements can be obtained with this new tool. Inclusion of our data showed that the scaling exponent of active metabolic rate with mass for sharks ranging from 0·13 to 47·7 kg was 0·79; a similar value to previous estimates for resting metabolic rates in smaller fishes. We describe the operation and usefulness of this new method in the context of our current uncertainties surrounding energy requirements of large water-breathing animals. We also highlight the sensitivity of mass-extrapolated energetic estimates in large aquatic animals and discuss the consequences for predicting ecosystem impacts such as trophic cascades.

A laboratory study of water ice erosion by low-energy ions

Water ice covers the surface of various objects in the outer Solar system.Within the heliopause, surface ice is constantly bombarded and sputtered by energetic particles from the solar wind and magnetospheres. We report a laboratory investigation of the sputtering yield of water ice when irradiated at 10 K by 4 keV singly (13C+, N+, O+, Ar+) and doubly charged ions (13C2+, N2+, O2+). The experimental values for the sputtering yields are in good agreement with the prediction of a theoretical model. There is no significant difference in the yield for singly and doubly charged ions. Using these yields, we estimate the rate of water ice erosion in the outer Solar system objects due to solar wind sputtering. Temperature-programmed desorption of the ice after irradiation with 13C+ and 13C2+ demonstrated the formation of 13CO and 13CO2, with 13CO being the dominant formed species.

Population inversion between the sup(3)Hsub(4) and the sup(3)Fsub(4) excited states of Tmsup(3+) investigated by means of numerical solutions of the rate equations system in Tmsup(3+)-doped and Tmsup(3+), Hosup(3+)-codoped fluoride glasses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Air Temperature Distribution and Energy-balance Modelling of a Debris-covered Glacier

Near-surface air temperature is an important determinant of the surface energy balance of glaciers and is often represented by a constant linear temperature gradients (TGs) in models. Spatiotemporal variability in 2 m air temperature was measured across the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Italy, over an 89 d period during the 2014 ablation season using a network of 19 stations. Air temperature was found to be strongly dependent upon elevation for most stations, even under varying meteorological conditions and at different times of day, and its spatial variability was well explained by a locally derived mean linear TG (MG–TG) of −0.0088°C m−1. However, local temperature depressions occurred over areas of very thin or patchy debris cover. The MG–TG, together with other air TGs, extrapolated from both on- and off-glacier sites, were applied in a distributed energy-balance model. Compared with piecewise air temperature extrapolation from all on-glacier stations, modelled ablation, using the MG–TG, increased by <1%, increasing to >4% using the environmental ‘lapse rate’. Ice melt under thick debris was relatively insensitive to air temperature, while the effects of different temperature extrapolation methods were strongest at high elevation sites of thin and patchy debris cover.