Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

En torno a los efectos de la edad en el aprendizaje escolar de una lengua extrangera

The purpose of this article is to treat a currently much debated issue, the effects of age on second language learning. To do so, we contrast data collected by our research team from over one thousand seven hundred young and adult learners with four popular beliefs or generalizations, which, while deeply rooted in this society, are not always corroborated by our data.Two of these generalizations about Second Language Acquisition (languages spoken in the social context) seem to be widely accepted: a) older children, adolescents and adults are quicker and more efficient at the first stages of learning than are younger learners; b) in a natural context children with an early start are more liable to attain higher levels of proficiency. However, in the context of Foreign Language Acquisition, the context in which we collect the data, this second generalization is difficult to verify due to the low number of instructional hours (a maximum of some 800 hours) and the lower levels of language exposure time provided. The design of our research project has allowed us to study differences observed with respect to the age of onset (ranging from 2 to 18+), but in this article we focus on students who began English instruction at the age of 8 (LOGSE Educational System) and those who began at the age of 11 (EGB). We have collected data from both groups after a period of 200 (Time 1) and 416 instructional hours (Time 2), and we are currently collecting data after a period of 726 instructional hours (Time 3). We have designed and administered a variety of tests: tests on English production and reception, both oral and written, and within both academic and communicative oriented approaches, on the learners' L1 (Spanish and Catalan), as well as a questionnaire eliciting personal and sociolinguistic information. The questions we address and the relevant empirical evidence are as follows: 1. "For young children, learning languages is a game. They enjoy it more than adults."Our data demonstrate that the situation is not quite so. Firstly, both at the levels of Primary and Secondary education (ranging from 70.5% in 11-year-olds to 89% in 14-year-olds) students have a positive attitude towards learning English. Secondly, there is a difference between the two groups with respect to the factors they cite as responsible for their motivation to learn English: the younger students cite intrinsic factors, such as the games they play, the methodology used and the teacher, whereas the older students cite extrinsic factors, such as the role of their knowledge of English in the achievement of their future professional goals. 2 ."Young children have more resources to learn languages." Here our data suggest just the opposite. The ability to employ learning strategies (actions or steps used) increases with age. Older learners' strategies are more varied and cognitively more complex. In contrast, younger learners depend more on their interlocutor and external resources and therefore have a lower level of autonomy in their learning. 3. "Young children don't talk much but understand a lot"This third generalization does seem to be confirmed, at least to a certain extent, by our data in relation to the analysis of differences due to the age factor and productive use of the target language. As seen above, the comparably slower progress of the younger learners is confirmed. Our analysis of interpersonal receptive abilities demonstrates as well the advantage of the older learners. Nevertheless, with respect to passive receptive activities (for example, simple recognition of words or sentences) no great differences are observed. Statistical analyses suggest that in this test, in contrast to the others analyzed, the dominance of the subjects' L1s (reflecting a cognitive capacity that grows with age) has no significant influence on the learning process. 4. "The sooner they begin, the better their results will be in written language"This is not either completely confirmed in our research. First of all, we perceive that certain compensatory strategies disappear only with age, but not with the number of instructional hours. Secondly, given an identical number of instructional hours, the older subjects obtain better results. With respect to our analysis of data from subjects of the same age (12 years old) but with a different number of instructional hours (200 and 416 respectively, as they began at the ages of 11 and 8), we observe that those who began earlier excel only in the area of lexical fluency. In conclusion, the superior rate of older learners appears to be due to their higher level of cognitive development, a factor which allows them to benefit more from formal or explicit instruction in the school context. Younger learners, however, do not benefit from the quantity and quality of linguistic exposure typical of a natural acquisition context in which they would be allowed to make use of implicit learning abilities. It seems clear, then, that the initiative in this country to begin foreign language instruction earlier will have positive effects only if it occurs in combination with either higher levels of exposure time to the foreign language, or, alternatively, with its use as the language of instruction in other areas of the curriculum.

Firm's network capability and innovation performance: evidences from China hi-tech industry

ABSTRACT : A firm's competitive advantage can arise from internal resources as well as from an interfirm network. -This dissertation investigates the competitive advantage of a firm involved in an innovation network by integrating strategic management theory and social network theory. It develops theory and provides empirical evidence that illustrates how a networked firm enables the network value and appropriates this value in an optimal way according to its strategic purpose. The four inter-related essays in this dissertation provide a framework that sheds light on the extraction of value from an innovation network by managing and designing the network in a proactive manner. The first essay reviews research in social network theory and knowledge transfer management, and identifies the crucial factors of innovation network configuration for a firm's learning performance or innovation output. The findings suggest that network structure, network relationship, and network position all impact on a firm's performance. Although the previous literature indicates that there are disagreements about the impact of dense or spare structure, as well as strong or weak ties, case evidence from Chinese software companies reveals that dense and strong connections with partners are positively associated with firms' performance. The second essay is a theoretical essay that illustrates the limitations of social network theory for explaining the source of network value and offers a new theoretical model that applies resource-based view to network environments. It suggests that network configurations, such as network structure, network relationship and network position, can be considered important network resources. In addition, this essay introduces the concept of network capability, and suggests that four types of network capabilities play an important role in unlocking the potential value of network resources and determining the distribution of network rents between partners. This essay also highlights the contingent effects of network capability on a firm's innovation output, and explains how the different impacts of network capability depend on a firm's strategic choices. This new theoretical model has been pre-tested with a case study of China software industry, which enhances the internal validity of this theory. The third essay addresses the questions of what impact network capability has on firm innovation performance and what are the antecedent factors of network capability. This essay employs a structural equation modelling methodology that uses a sample of 211 Chinese Hi-tech firms. It develops a measurement of network capability and reveals that networked firms deal with cooperation between, and coordination with partners on different levels according to their levels of network capability. The empirical results also suggests that IT maturity, the openness of culture, management system involved, and experience with network activities are antecedents of network capabilities. Furthermore, the two-group analysis of the role of international partner(s) shows that when there is a culture and norm gap between foreign partners, a firm must mobilize more resources and effort to improve its performance with respect to its innovation network. The fourth essay addresses the way in which network capabilities influence firm innovation performance. By using hierarchical multiple regression with data from Chinese Hi-tech firms, the findings suggest that there is a significant partial mediating effect of knowledge transfer on the relationships between network capabilities and innovation performance. The findings also reveal that the impacts of network capabilities divert with the environment and strategic decision the firm has made: exploration or exploitation. Network constructing capability provides a greater positive impact on and yields more contributions to innovation performance than does network operating capability in an exploration network. Network operating capability is more important than network constructing capability for innovative firms in an exploitation network. Therefore, these findings highlight that the firm can shape the innovation network proactively for better benefits, but when it does so, it should adjust its focus and change its efforts in accordance with its innovation purposes or strategic orientation.

Influence of magnetic field strength and image registration strategy on voxel-based morphometry in a study of Alzheimer's disease.

Multi-centre data repositories like the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) offer a unique research platform, but pose questions concerning comparability of results when using a range of imaging protocols and data processing algorithms. The variability is mainly due to the non-quantitative character of the widely used structural T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) images. Although the stability of the main effect of Alzheimer's disease (AD) on brain structure across platforms and field strength has been addressed in previous studies using multi-site MR images, there are only sparse empirically-based recommendations for processing and analysis of pooled multi-centre structural MR data acquired at different magnetic field strengths (MFS). Aiming to minimise potential systematic bias when using ADNI data we investigate the specific contributions of spatial registration strategies and the impact of MFS on voxel-based morphometry in AD. We perform a whole-brain analysis within the framework of Statistical Parametric Mapping, testing for main effects of various diffeomorphic spatial registration strategies, of MFS and their interaction with disease status. Beyond the confirmation of medial temporal lobe volume loss in AD, we detect a significant impact of spatial registration strategy on estimation of AD related atrophy. Additionally, we report a significant effect of MFS on the assessment of brain anatomy (i) in the cerebellum, (ii) the precentral gyrus and (iii) the thalamus bilaterally, showing no interaction with the disease status. We provide empirical evidence in support of pooling data in multi-centre VBM studies irrespective of disease status or MFS.

The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement: Guidelines for reporting observational studies.

Much biomedical research is observational. The reporting of such research is often inadequate, which hampers the assessment of its strengths and weaknesses and of a study's generalisability. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Initiative developed recommendations on what should be included in an accurate and complete report of an observational study. We defined the scope of the recommendations to cover three main study designs: cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies. We convened a 2-day workshop in September 2004, with methodologists, researchers, and journal editors to draft a checklist of items. This list was subsequently revised during several meetings of the coordinating group and in e-mail discussions with the larger group of STROBE contributors, taking into account empirical evidence and methodological considerations. The workshop and the subsequent iterative process of consultation and revision resulted in a checklist of 22 items (the STROBE Statement) that relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results, and discussion sections of articles. 18 items are common to all three study designs and four are specific for cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional studies. A detailed Explanation and Elaboration document is published separately and is freely available on the Web sites of PLoS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and Epidemiology. We hope that the STROBE Statement will contribute to improving the quality of reporting of observational studies.

Generic brands and product differentiation strategies

Generic or own brand products were initially only lesser expensive copies of the branded label alternative, but nowadays, pricing alone is not enough in order to survive in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) or Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)markets. With this in mind manufacturers of generic brands have adapted to this rapidlygrowing niche by investing in design and marketing during the initial phase in order to be perceived as having a quality product comparable to that of the branded products. In addition, they have gone further ahead with a second phase and resorted to innovativeproduct differentiation strategies and even pure innovation in many cases. These strategies have granted generic brands constantly increasing market shares and a position of equals relative to national brands.Using previous analyses and case studies, this paper will provide conceptual and empirical evidence to explain the surprisingly fast growth and penetration of generic supermarket brands, which in their relatively short lifespan, have grown to rival the historical market leaders, the branded products. According to this analysis, the main conclusion is that the growth in generic brands can be explained not only by price competition, but also by the use of innovative product differentiation strategies.

Decentralization and the Welfare State: What Do Citizens Perceive?

Trust in public institutions and public policies are generally perceived as a precondition for economic recovery in times of recession. Recent empirical evidence tends to find a positive link between decentralization and trust. But our knowledge about whether decentralization – through increased trust – improves the perception of the delivery and effectiveness of public policies is still limited. In this paper we estimate the impact of fiscal and political decentralization on the perception of the state of the education system and of health services, by using the 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008 waves of the European social survey. The analysis of the views of 160,000 individuals in 31 European countries indicates that while the effect of fiscal decentralization on the perception of the state of the health and education system is limited, political decentralization clearly affects citizen’s satisfaction with education and health delivery. The influence of political decentralization, however, is highly contingent on whether we consider the capacity of the local or regional government to exercise authority over its citizens (self-rule) or to influence policy at the national level (shared-rule). Keywords: Education, health, satisfaction, fiscal and political decentralization, Europe. JEL codes: H11, H77

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

En torno a los efectos de la edad en el aprendizaje escolar de una lengua extrangera

The purpose of this article is to treat a currently much debated issue, the effects of age on second language learning. To do so, we contrast data collected by our research team from over one thousand seven hundred young and adult learners with four popular beliefs or generalizations, which, while deeply rooted in this society, are not always corroborated by our data.Two of these generalizations about Second Language Acquisition (languages spoken in the social context) seem to be widely accepted: a) older children, adolescents and adults are quicker and more efficient at the first stages of learning than are younger learners; b) in a natural context children with an early start are more liable to attain higher levels of proficiency. However, in the context of Foreign Language Acquisition, the context in which we collect the data, this second generalization is difficult to verify due to the low number of instructional hours (a maximum of some 800 hours) and the lower levels of language exposure time provided. The design of our research project has allowed us to study differences observed with respect to the age of onset (ranging from 2 to 18+), but in this article we focus on students who began English instruction at the age of 8 (LOGSE Educational System) and those who began at the age of 11 (EGB). We have collected data from both groups after a period of 200 (Time 1) and 416 instructional hours (Time 2), and we are currently collecting data after a period of 726 instructional hours (Time 3). We have designed and administered a variety of tests: tests on English production and reception, both oral and written, and within both academic and communicative oriented approaches, on the learners' L1 (Spanish and Catalan), as well as a questionnaire eliciting personal and sociolinguistic information. The questions we address and the relevant empirical evidence are as follows: 1. "For young children, learning languages is a game. They enjoy it more than adults."Our data demonstrate that the situation is not quite so. Firstly, both at the levels of Primary and Secondary education (ranging from 70.5% in 11-year-olds to 89% in 14-year-olds) students have a positive attitude towards learning English. Secondly, there is a difference between the two groups with respect to the factors they cite as responsible for their motivation to learn English: the younger students cite intrinsic factors, such as the games they play, the methodology used and the teacher, whereas the older students cite extrinsic factors, such as the role of their knowledge of English in the achievement of their future professional goals. 2 ."Young children have more resources to learn languages." Here our data suggest just the opposite. The ability to employ learning strategies (actions or steps used) increases with age. Older learners' strategies are more varied and cognitively more complex. In contrast, younger learners depend more on their interlocutor and external resources and therefore have a lower level of autonomy in their learning. 3. "Young children don't talk much but understand a lot"This third generalization does seem to be confirmed, at least to a certain extent, by our data in relation to the analysis of differences due to the age factor and productive use of the target language. As seen above, the comparably slower progress of the younger learners is confirmed. Our analysis of interpersonal receptive abilities demonstrates as well the advantage of the older learners. Nevertheless, with respect to passive receptive activities (for example, simple recognition of words or sentences) no great differences are observed. Statistical analyses suggest that in this test, in contrast to the others analyzed, the dominance of the subjects' L1s (reflecting a cognitive capacity that grows with age) has no significant influence on the learning process. 4. "The sooner they begin, the better their results will be in written language"This is not either completely confirmed in our research. First of all, we perceive that certain compensatory strategies disappear only with age, but not with the number of instructional hours. Secondly, given an identical number of instructional hours, the older subjects obtain better results. With respect to our analysis of data from subjects of the same age (12 years old) but with a different number of instructional hours (200 and 416 respectively, as they began at the ages of 11 and 8), we observe that those who began earlier excel only in the area of lexical fluency. In conclusion, the superior rate of older learners appears to be due to their higher level of cognitive development, a factor which allows them to benefit more from formal or explicit instruction in the school context. Younger learners, however, do not benefit from the quantity and quality of linguistic exposure typical of a natural acquisition context in which they would be allowed to make use of implicit learning abilities. It seems clear, then, that the initiative in this country to begin foreign language instruction earlier will have positive effects only if it occurs in combination with either higher levels of exposure time to the foreign language, or, alternatively, with its use as the language of instruction in other areas of the curriculum.

En torno a los efectos de la edad en el aprendizaje escolar de una lengua extrangera

The purpose of this article is to treat a currently much debated issue, the effects of age on second language learning. To do so, we contrast data collected by our research team from over one thousand seven hundred young and adult learners with four popular beliefs or generalizations, which, while deeply rooted in this society, are not always corroborated by our data.Two of these generalizations about Second Language Acquisition (languages spoken in the social context) seem to be widely accepted: a) older children, adolescents and adults are quicker and more efficient at the first stages of learning than are younger learners; b) in a natural context children with an early start are more liable to attain higher levels of proficiency. However, in the context of Foreign Language Acquisition, the context in which we collect the data, this second generalization is difficult to verify due to the low number of instructional hours (a maximum of some 800 hours) and the lower levels of language exposure time provided. The design of our research project has allowed us to study differences observed with respect to the age of onset (ranging from 2 to 18+), but in this article we focus on students who began English instruction at the age of 8 (LOGSE Educational System) and those who began at the age of 11 (EGB). We have collected data from both groups after a period of 200 (Time 1) and 416 instructional hours (Time 2), and we are currently collecting data after a period of 726 instructional hours (Time 3). We have designed and administered a variety of tests: tests on English production and reception, both oral and written, and within both academic and communicative oriented approaches, on the learners' L1 (Spanish and Catalan), as well as a questionnaire eliciting personal and sociolinguistic information. The questions we address and the relevant empirical evidence are as follows: 1. "For young children, learning languages is a game. They enjoy it more than adults."Our data demonstrate that the situation is not quite so. Firstly, both at the levels of Primary and Secondary education (ranging from 70.5% in 11-year-olds to 89% in 14-year-olds) students have a positive attitude towards learning English. Secondly, there is a difference between the two groups with respect to the factors they cite as responsible for their motivation to learn English: the younger students cite intrinsic factors, such as the games they play, the methodology used and the teacher, whereas the older students cite extrinsic factors, such as the role of their knowledge of English in the achievement of their future professional goals. 2 ."Young children have more resources to learn languages." Here our data suggest just the opposite. The ability to employ learning strategies (actions or steps used) increases with age. Older learners' strategies are more varied and cognitively more complex. In contrast, younger learners depend more on their interlocutor and external resources and therefore have a lower level of autonomy in their learning. 3. "Young children don't talk much but understand a lot"This third generalization does seem to be confirmed, at least to a certain extent, by our data in relation to the analysis of differences due to the age factor and productive use of the target language. As seen above, the comparably slower progress of the younger learners is confirmed. Our analysis of interpersonal receptive abilities demonstrates as well the advantage of the older learners. Nevertheless, with respect to passive receptive activities (for example, simple recognition of words or sentences) no great differences are observed. Statistical analyses suggest that in this test, in contrast to the others analyzed, the dominance of the subjects' L1s (reflecting a cognitive capacity that grows with age) has no significant influence on the learning process. 4. "The sooner they begin, the better their results will be in written language"This is not either completely confirmed in our research. First of all, we perceive that certain compensatory strategies disappear only with age, but not with the number of instructional hours. Secondly, given an identical number of instructional hours, the older subjects obtain better results. With respect to our analysis of data from subjects of the same age (12 years old) but with a different number of instructional hours (200 and 416 respectively, as they began at the ages of 11 and 8), we observe that those who began earlier excel only in the area of lexical fluency. In conclusion, the superior rate of older learners appears to be due to their higher level of cognitive development, a factor which allows them to benefit more from formal or explicit instruction in the school context. Younger learners, however, do not benefit from the quantity and quality of linguistic exposure typical of a natural acquisition context in which they would be allowed to make use of implicit learning abilities. It seems clear, then, that the initiative in this country to begin foreign language instruction earlier will have positive effects only if it occurs in combination with either higher levels of exposure time to the foreign language, or, alternatively, with its use as the language of instruction in other areas of the curriculum.

Reporting a program evaluation: Needs, program plan, intervention, and decisions

The approach to intervention programs varies depending on the methodological perspective adopted. This means that health professionals lack clear guidelines regarding how best to proceed, and it hinders the accumulation of knowledge. The aim of this paper is to set out the essential and common aspects that should be included in any program evaluation report, thereby providing a useful guide for the professional regardless of the procedural approach used. Furthermore, the paper seeks to integrate the different methodologies and illustrate their complementarity, this being a key aspect in terms of real intervention contexts, which are constantly changing. The aspects to be included are presented in relation to the main stages of the evaluation process: needs, objectives and design (prior to the intervention), implementation (during the intervention), and outcomes (after the intervention). For each of these stages the paper describes the elements on which decisions should be based, highlighting the role of empirical evidence gathered through the application of instruments to defined samples and according to a given procedure.

Sex-chromosome turnovers induced by deleterious mutation load.

In sharp contrast with mammals and birds, many cold-blooded vertebrates present homomorphic sex chromosomes. Empirical evidence supports a role for frequent turnovers, which replace nonrecombining sex chromosomes before they have time to decay. Three main mechanisms have been proposed for such turnovers, relying either on neutral processes, sex-ratio selection, or intrinsic benefits of the new sex-determining genes (due, e.g., to linkage with sexually antagonistic mutations). Here, we suggest an additional mechanism, arising from the load of deleterious mutations that accumulate on nonrecombining sex chromosomes. In the absence of dosage compensation, this load should progressively lower survival rate in the heterogametic sex. Turnovers should occur when this cost outweighs the benefits gained from any sexually antagonistic genes carried by the nonrecombining sex chromosome. We use individual-based simulations of a Muller's ratchet process to test this prediction, and investigate how the relevant parameters (effective population size, strength and dominance of deleterious mutations, size of nonrecombining segment, and strength of sexually antagonistic selection) are expected to affect the rate of turnovers.

Communicating Highway Safety: What Works, 2002

Few topics in transportation are of greater significance, now and in the future, than making today’s roads safe for those who use them. This study aims to assist the formulation of policy by examining the empirical evidence currently available on the ability of several forms of communication efforts and activities to increase knowledge about and affect attitudes and behavior toward highway safety practices. The objective of this effort is to provide a comparative synthesis of what works and what does not in highway safety campaigns across a large number of topical areas that have a mass media component. This was accomplished by conducting an extensive literature review to determine the current state of knowledge concerning what works and what has significant potential for wide use in future highway safety campaigns. An analytic framework for investigating highway safety campaigns was created. The framework includes (1) the types of media components, (2) the types of collaborations, (3) the context in which the campaign is intended to have impact, (4) the structure or procedural steps into which campaigns are organized, (5) the principles for what works in a campaign, and (6) the desired impact of a campaign on its target audience. The report reveals 25 characteristics of successful communication campaigns, strategies that stand a chance of achieving changes in knowledge, attitude, and behavior. The actual impact of mass communication remains unproven because of a perceived lag in the development of adequate evaluation techniques. Education by itself has not generally resulted in significant changes in the behaviors targeted, but education of the public and advocacy groups has often helped enact necessary legislation, transmit knowledge about the provisions and penalties of laws in ways that increase their deterrent effect, and generate public support for law enforcement programs. Even in such cases, however, when enforcement is inconsistent, public compliance frequently decreases with time. Approaches to traffic safety that emphasize the need for long-term individual- and community-based measures are found to be especially crucial for addressing complex problems like drinking and driving that are determined by a myriad of lifestyle and psychosocial factors.

The clinical use of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the detection and management of osteoporosis

For the detection and management of osteoporosis and osteoporosis-related fractures, quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is emerging as a relatively low-cost and readily accessible alternative to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) in certain circumstances. The following is a brief, but thorough review of the existing literature with respect to the use of QUS in 6 settings: 1) assessing fragility fracture risk; 2) diagnosing osteoporosis; 3) initiating osteoporosis treatment; 4) monitoring osteoporosis treatment; 5) osteoporosis case finding; and 6) quality assurance and control. Many QUS devices exist that are quite different with respect to the parameters they measure and the strength of empirical evidence supporting their use. In general, heel QUS appears to be most tested and most effective. Overall, some, but not all, heel QUS devices are effective assessing fracture risk in some, but not all, populations, the evidence being strongest for Caucasian females over 55 years old. Otherwise, the evidence is fair with respect to certain devices allowing for the accurate diagnosis of likelihood of osteoporosis, and generally fair to poor in terms of QUS use when initiating or monitoring osteoporosis treatment. A reasonable protocol is proposed herein for case-finding purposes, which relies on a combined assessment of clinical risk factors (CR.F) and heel QUS. Finally, several recommendations are made for quality assurance and control.

The Spatial Effects of Trade Openness: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on the implications of trade liberalisation for intra-national economic geographies. Three results stand out. First, neither urban systems models nor new economic geography models imply a robust prediction for the impact of trade openness on spatial concentration. Whether trade promotes concentration or dispersion depends on subtle modelling choices among which it is impossible to adjudicate a priori. Second, empirical evidence mirrors the theoretical indeterminacy: a majority of cross-country studies find no significant effect of openness on urban concentration or regional inequality. Third, the available models predict that, other things equal, regions with inherently less costly access to foreign markets, such as border or port regions, stand to reap the largest gains from trade liberalisation. This prediction is confirmed by the available evidence. Whether trade liberalisation raises or lowers regional inequality therefore depends on each country's specific geography.