Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Optimal dispatch of spinning reserve in a competitive electricity market using genetic algorithms

Ancillary service plays a key role in maintaining operation security of the power system in a competitive electricity market. The spinning reserve is one of the most important ancillary services that should be provided effectively. This paper presents the design of an integrated market for energy and spinning reserve service with particular emphasis on coordinated dispatch of bulk power and spinning reserve services. A new market dispatching mechanism has been developed to minimize the cost of service while maintaining system security. Genetic algorithms (GA) are used for finding the global optimal solutions for this dispatch problem. Case studies and corresponding analyses have been carried out to demonstrate and discuss the efficiency and usefulness of the proposed method.

Stakeholder communication and the internet in UK electricity companies

This paper is located within the corporate social reporting and stakeholder management literature. It is concerned with the use of the Internet as a way of communicating with stakeholders and the extent to which this communication is or is not two-way. The evidence from the electricity industry in the UK is that the Internet is used but this use is selective and there is little true dialogue. It appears that the Internet provides an opportunity for greater corporate accountability in the future but whether this potential will be fulfilled is as yet unclear. Further research of a longitudinal nature is required to see how the Internet and more specifically corporate social or stakeholder reporting develops over time.

'Animal electricity' in the long eighteenth century with special reference to the Edinburgh medical school

Coleridge, looking back at the end of the ‘long eighteenth century’, remarked that the whole of natural philosophy had been ‘electrified’ by advances in the understanding of electrical phenomena. In this paper I trace the way in which these advances affected contemporary ‘neurophysiology.’ At the beginning of the long eighteenth century, neurophysiology (in spite of Swammerdam’s and Glisson’s demonstrations to the contrary) was still understood largely in terms of hollow nerves and animal spirits. At the end of that period the researches of microscopists and electricians had convinced most medical men that the old understanding had to be replaced. Walsh, Patterson, John Hunter and others had described the electric organs of electric fish. Gray and Nollet had demonstrated that electricity was not merely static, but flowed. Franklin had alerted the world to atmospheric electricity. Galvani’s frog experiments were widely known. Volta had invented his ‘pile.’ But did ‘animal electricity’ exist and was it identical to the electricity physicists studied in the inanimate world? Was the brain a gland, as Malpighi’s researches seemed to confirm., and did it secrete electricity into the nervous system? The Monros (primus and secundus), William Cullen, Luigi Galvani, Alessandro Volta, Erasmus Darwin, Luigi Rolando and François Baillarger all had their own ideas. This paper reviews these ‘long-eighteenth century’ controversies with special reference to the Edinburgh medical school and the interaction between neurophysiology and physics.

A comparison of integrated biomass to electricity systems

This thesis presents a comparison of integrated biomass to electricity systems on the basis of their efficiency, capital cost and electricity production cost. Four systems are evaluated: combustion to raise steam for a steam cycle; atmospheric gasification to produce fuel gas for a dual fuel diesel engine; pressurised gasification to produce fuel gas for a gas turbine combined cycle; and fast pyrolysis to produce pyrolysis liquid for a dual fuel diesel engine. The feedstock in all cases is wood in chipped form. This is the first time that all three thermochemical conversion technologies have been compared in a single, consistent evaluation.The systems have been modelled from the transportation of the wood chips through pretreatment, thermochemical conversion and electricity generation. Equipment requirements during pretreatment are comprehensively modelled and include reception, storage, drying and communication. The de-coupling of the fast pyrolysis system is examined, where the fast pyrolysis and engine stages are carried out at separate locations. Relationships are also included to allow learning effects to be studied. The modelling is achieved through the use of multiple spreadsheets where each spreadsheet models part of the system in isolation and the spreadsheets are combined to give the cost and performance of a whole system.The use of the models has shown that on current costs the combustion system remains the most cost-effective generating route, despite its low efficiency. The novel systems only produce lower cost electricity if learning effects are included, implying that some sort of subsidy will be required during the early development of the gasification and fast pyrolysis systems to make them competitive with the established combustion approach. The use of decoupling in fast pyrolysis systems is a useful way of reducing system costs if electricity is required at several sites because• a single pyrolysis site can be used to supply all the generators, offering economies of scale at the conversion step. Overall, costs are much higher than conventional electricity generating costs for fossil fuels, due mainly to the small scales used. Biomass to electricity opportunities remain restricted to niche markets where electricity prices are high or feed costs are very low. It is highly recommended that further work examines possibilities for combined beat and power which is suitable for small scale systems and could increase revenues that could reduce electricity prices.

Technical and economic simulation of biomass pyrolysis processes for fuels and electricity

There is considerable concern over the increased effect of fossil fuel usage on the environment and this concern has resulted in an effort to find alternative, environmentally friendly energy sources. Biomass is an available alternative resource which may be converted by flash pyrolysis to produce a crude liquid product that can be used directly to substitute for conventional fossil fuels or upgraded to a higher quality fuel. Both the crude and upgraded products may be utilised for power generation. A computer program, BLUNT, has been developed to model the flash pyrolysis of biomass with subsequent upgrading, refining or power production. The program assesses and compares the economic and technical opportunities for biomass thermochemical conversion on the same basis. BLUNT works by building up a selected processing route from a number of process steps through which the material passes sequentially. Each process step has a step model that calculates the mass and energy balances, the utilities usage and the capital cost for that step of the process. The results of the step models are combined to determine the performance of the whole conversion route. Sample results from the modelling are presented in this thesis. Due to the large number of possible combinations of feeds, conversion processes, products and sensitivity analyses a complete set of results is impractical to present in a single publication. Variation of the production costs for the available products have been illustrated based on the cost of a wood feedstock. The effect of selected macroeconomic factors on the production costs of bio-diesel and gasoline are also given.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Stakeholder accounting : the case of the electricity industry in England and Wales

This thesis proposes to explore the potential for stakeholder based accounting as a means to explain the social performance of organisations. It argues that organisations have a contract with society and as a consequence they must be accountable to that society for their actions. Further, it is suggested that as part of this accountability there is a broader need in the public interest for social accounting. Due to the pluralistic nature of modern societies it is argued that a stakeholder framework is one way in which this accountability can be achieved. In order to consider the nature of such social accounting a case study of the electricity industry in England and Wales is undertaken. This industry is very important to modern society, has significant environment implications and has a recent history of remarkable change. These factors make it an interesting and unique case within which to consider accountability. From the performance measurement and accounting literature and a series of interviews with both stakeholders and privatised companies a model of stakeholder performance is developed. This is then used to analyse the electricity industry in England and Wales since privatisation. The objective is to demonstrate how certain stakeholders have fared, whether they have won or lost. Further, institutional and resource dependency theories are used to consider what factors determine the relative success or failure of the different stakeholder groups. Finally the possible implications of recent developments in Social Accounting Standards, such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), AccountAbility 1000 (AA1000) and Social Accountability 8000 (SA8000), and the potential for Internet reporting are considered.

An investigation into the steady state performance of several methods of series compensating electricity transmission lines

There are several methods of providing series compensation for transmission lines using power electronic switches. Four methods of series compensation have been examined in this thesis, the thyristor controlled series capacitor, a voltage sourced inverter series compensator using a capacitor as the series element, a current sourced inverter series compensator and a voltage sourced inverter using an inductor as the series element. All the compensators examined will provide a continuously variable series voltage which is controlled by the switching of the electronic switches. Two of the circuits will offer both capacitive and inductive compensation, the thyristor controlled series capacitor and the current sourced inverter series compensator. The other two will produce either capacitive or inductive series compensation. The thyristor controlled series capacitor offers the widest range of series compensation. However, there is a band of unavailable compensation between 0 and 1 pu capacitive compensation. Compared to the other compensators examined the harmonic content of the compensating voltage is quite high. An algebraic analysis showed that there is more than one state the thyristor controlled series capacitor can operate in. This state has the undesirable effect of introducing large losses. The voltage sourced inverter series compensator using a capacitor as the series element will provide only capacitive compensation. It uses two capacitors which increase the cost of the compensator significantly above the other three. This circuit has the advantage of very low harmonic distortion. The current sourced inverter series compensator will provide both capacitive and inductive series compensation. The harmonic content of the compensating voltage is second only to the voltage sourced inverter series compensator using a capacitor as the series element. The voltage sourced inverter series compensator using an inductor as the series element will only provide inductive compensation, and it is the least expensive compensator examined. Unfortunately, the harmonics introduced by this circuit are considerable.