The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Assessment for learning - Why the theory needs the practice

Assessment for Learning is a pedagogical practice with anticipated gains of increased student motivation, mastery and autonomy as learners develop their capacity to monitor and plan their own learning progress. Assessment for Learning (AfL) differs from Assessment of learning in its timing, occurring within the regular flow of learning rather than end point, in its purpose of improving student learning rather than summative grading and in the ownership of the learning where the student voice is heard in judging quality. Since Black and Wiliam (1998) highlighted the achievement gains that AfL practices seem to bring to all learners in classrooms, it has become part of current educational policy discourse in Australia, yet teacher adoption of the practices is not a straightforward implementation of techniques within an existing classroom repertoire. As can be seen from the following meta-analysis, recent research highlights a more complex interrelationship between teacher and student beliefs about learning and assessment, and the social and cultural interactions in and contexts of the classroom. More research is needed from a sociocultural perspective that allows meaning to emerge from practice. Before another policy push, we need to understand better the many factors within the assessment relationship. We need to hear from teachers and students through long-term AfL case studies both to inform AfL theory and to shed light on the complexities of pedagogical change for enhancing learner autonomy.

The beliefs which motivate young male and female drivers to speed : a comparison of low and high intenders

In Australia, young drivers aged 17 to 24 years, and particularly males, have the highest risk of being involved in a fatal crash. Investigation of young drivers’ beliefs allows for a greater understanding of their involvement in risky behaviours, such as speeding, as beliefs are associated with intentions, the antecedent to behaviour. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to conceptualise beliefs using a scenario based questionnaire distributed to licensed drivers (N = 398). The questionnaire measured individual’s beliefs and intentions to speed in a particular situation. Consistent with a TPB-based approach, the beliefs of those with low intentions to speed (‘low intenders’) were compared with the beliefs of those with high intentions (‘high intenders’) with such comparisons conducted separately for males and females. Overall, significant differences in the beliefs held by low and high intenders and for both females and males were found. Specifically, for females, it was found that high intenders were significantly more likely to perceive advantages of speeding, less likely to perceive disadvantages, and more likely to be encouraged to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads than female low intenders. Females, however, did not differ in their perceptions of support from friends, with all females reporting some level of disapproval from most friends and all females (i.e., low and high intenders) reporting approval to speed from their male friends. The results for males revealed that high intenders were significantly more likely to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads as well as having greater perceptions of support from all friends, except from those friends with whom they worked. Low and high intending males did not differ in their perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages of speeding, with the exception of feelings of excitement whereby high intenders reported speeding to be more exciting than low intenders. The findings are discussed in terms of how they may directly inform the content of mass media and public education campaigns aimed at encouraging young drivers to slow down.

Managerial cognition and reputation : does communication about firms’ intangibles affect performance?

Corporate reputation is viewed as fundamental to firm performance, growth and survival and the maintenance and enhancement of that reputation is a key responsibility of senior executives. However, relatively little is known about the main dimensions of corporate reputation and the amount of attention given to them by senior executives. Based on the corporate reputation and intangible resources literatures, thirteen reputational elements were identified and the amount of attention given to those elements in a large, longitudinal sample of annual reports from Australian firms was measured using computer aided text analysis. This identified five, main reputational dimensions that were both stable over time and related to firms’ future financial performance.

Parametric differences between a real-world distributed denial-of-service attack and a flash event

Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks continue to be one of the most pernicious threats to the delivery of services over the Internet. Not only are DDoS attacks present in many guises, they are also continuously evolving as new vulnerabilities are exploited. Hence accurate detection of these attacks still remains a challenging problem and a necessity for ensuring high-end network security. An intrinsic challenge in addressing this problem is to effectively distinguish these Denial-of-Service attacks from similar looking Flash Events (FEs) created by legitimate clients. A considerable overlap between the general characteristics of FEs and DDoS attacks makes it difficult to precisely separate these two classes of Internet activity. In this paper we propose parameters which can be used to explicitly distinguish FEs from DDoS attacks and analyse two real-world publicly available datasets to validate our proposal. Our analysis shows that even though FEs appear very similar to DDoS attacks, there are several subtle dissimilarities which can be exploited to separate these two classes of events.

A theory of waste behaviour in the construction industry

Levels of waste within the construction industry need to be reduced for environmental and economic reasons. Changing people's wasteful behaviour can make a significant contribution. This paper describes a research project that used Ajzen's 'theory of planned behaviour' to investigate the attitudinal forces that shape behaviour at the operative level. It concludes that operatives see waste as an inevitable by-product of construction activity. Attitudes towards waste management are not negative, although they are pragmatic and impeded by perceptions of a lack of managerial commitment. Waste management is perceived as a low project priority, and there is an absence of appropriate resources and incentives to support it. A theory of waste behaviour is proposed for the construction industry, and recommendations are made to help managers improve operatives' attitudes towards waste.

Emergent task-specific object semantics through distributed experience networks

Autonomous development of sensorimotor coordination enables a robot to adapt and change its action choices to interact with the world throughout its lifetime. The Experience Network is a structure that rapidly learns coordination between visual and haptic inputs and motor action. This paper presents methods which handle the high dimensionality of the network state-space which occurs due to the simultaneous detection of multiple sensory features. The methods provide no significant increase in the complexity of the underlying representations and also allow emergent, task-specific, semantic information to inform action selection. Experimental results show rapid learning in a real robot, beginning with no sensorimotor mappings, to a mobile robot capable of wall avoidance and target acquisition.

Why evolutionary realism underpins evolutionary economic analysis and theory

This paper offers a reply to Jochen Runde's critical appraisal of the ontological framework underpinning Dopfer and Potts's (2008) General Theory of Economic Evolution. We argue that Runde's comprehensive critique contains several of what we perceive to be misunderstandings in relation to the key concepts of ‘generic’ and ‘meso’ that we seek here to unpack and redress.

Visceral hedonic rhetoric

Emotional responses can incite and entice consumers to select a particular product from a row of similar items and thus have a considerable impact on purchase decisions. Consequently, more and more companies are challenging designers to address the emotional impact of their work and to design for emotion and consumerproduct relationships. Furthermore, the creation of emotional attachment to one’s possessions is one way of approaching a sustainable consumer-product relationship. The aim of this research is to gain a deeper understanding of the instantaneous emotional attachment that consumers form with products and its subsequent implications for product development. The foci of the study are visceral design, consumer hedonics and product rhetoric. Studied in a conglomerate they become an area of new investigation: visceral hedonic rhetoric. In this context, the term “visceral hedonic rhetoric” is defined as the properties of a product that persuasively elicit the pursuit of pleasure at an instinctual level of cognition. This study explores visceral hedonic rhetoric evident in the design of interactive products and resides within the context of emotional design research. It employs an empirical approach to understand how consumers respond hedonically on a visceral level to rhetoric in products. Specifically, it examines visceral hedonic responses given by thirty participants to the stimuli of six mobile telephones, six Mp3 players and six USB memory flash drives. The study findings demonstrate a hierarchy of visceral hedonic rhetoric evident in interactive products. This hierarchy of visceral hedonic attributes include: colour, size, shape, intrigue, material, perceived usability, portability, perceived function, novelty, analogy, brand, quality, texture and gender. However, it is the interrelationships between these visceral hedonic attributes that are the most significant findings of this research. Certain associations were revealed between product attribute combinations and consumer perception. The most predominant of these were: gender bias associated with colour selection; the creation of intrigue through a vibrant attention-grabbing colour; perceived ease of use and function; product confidence as a result of brand familiarity and perceived usability; analogous association through familiarity with similar objects and shapes; and the association of longevity with quality, novelty or recent technology. A significant outcome of the research is the distillation of visceral hedonic rhetoric design principles, and a tool to assist designers in harnessing the full potential of visceral hedonic rhetoric. This study contributes to the identification of the emerging research field of visceral hedonic rhetoric. Application of this study’s findings has the potential to provide a hedonic consumer-product relationship that is more meaningful, less disposable and more sustainable. This theory of visceral hedonic rhetoric is not only a significant contribution to design knowledge but is also generally transferable to other research domains, as later suggested in future research avenues.