Experimental design for acquiring relevant data to address the issue of comparing consecutively manufactured tools and firearms

The comparison of consecutively manufactured tools and firearms has provided much, but not all, of the basis for the profession of firearm and toolmark examination. The authors accept the fundamental soundness of this approach but appeal to the experimental community to close two minor gaps in the experimental procedure. We suggest that "blinding" and attention to appropriateness of other experimental conditions that would consolidate the foundations of our profession. We do not suggest that previous work is unsound.

Withholding antimalarials in febrile children who have a negative result for a rapid diagnostic test.

BACKGROUND: The availability of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (RDTm) allows accurate diagnosis at all levels of health facilities. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the safety of withholding antimalarials in febrile children who have a negative test result. METHODS: We conducted a prospective 2-arm longitudinal study in areas of Tanzania that are moderately and highly endemic for malaria. Children with a history of fever were managed routinely by resident clinicians of 2 health facilities, except that no antimalarials were prescribed if the RDTm result was negative. Children were followed up at home on day 7. The main outcome was the occurrence of complications in children with negative RDTm results; children with positive RDTm results were followed up for the same outcomes for indirect comparison. RESULTS: One thousand children (median age, 24 months) were recruited. Six hundred three children (60%) had a negative RDTm result. Five hundred seventy-three (97%) of these children were cured on day 7. Forty-nine (8%) of the children with negative RDTm results spontaneously visited the dispensary before day 7, compared with 10 (3%) of the children with positive RDTm results. All children who had negative initial results had negative results again when they were tested either at spontaneous attendance or on day 7 because they were not cured clinically, except for 3 who gave positive results on days 2, 4, and 7 respectively but who did not experience any complication. Four children who had negative initial results were admitted to the hospital subsequently, all with negative results for malaria tests upon admission. Two of them died, of causes other than malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Not giving antimalarial drugs in febrile children who had a negative RDTm result was safe, even in an area highly endemic for malaria. Our study provides evidence for treatment recommendations based on parasitological diagnosis in children <5 years old.

Etat fébrile et Hépatosplénomégalie chez une femme de 25 ans: approche diagnostique [A 25-year-old woman with fever and hepatosplenomegaly: diagnostic approach]

We proceeded to an extensive etiologic search in a young women with a hepatosplenomegaly and a chronic persistent fever. We discuss the differential diagnosis of this situation with a final diagnosis of sarcoidosis.

Diagnostic markers in schistosomiasis

In the present paper a brief overview will be given of the recent progress and trends in assaying diagnostic markers in schistosomiasis; only markers of the humoral immunological system and biochemical markers will be discussed, as markers for cellular immunological reactivity will be discussed by other authors. The following diagnostic markers will be reviewed: markers for infection, markers for immunity and markers for morbidity.

Home i natura a la Vall de Riells

Considerant l’absència d’estudis ambientals previs a la Vall de Riells (Bigues i Riells, Vallès Oriental), i l’evident necessitat de gestió de l’espai a causa de la sobrefreqüentació antròpica, s’ha realitzat aquesta diagnosi ambiental. En ella es descriuen de manera integrada els principals elements del medi físic, biòtic i socioeconòmic, per tal de proporcionar les eines necessàries per avaluar les problemàtiques de l’espai i fomentar la seva gestió i conservació.

Diagnostic accuracy of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra in critically ill children with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interleukin-8 (IL-8), and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) in identifying patients with sepsis among critically ill pediatric patients with suspected infection. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nested case-control study in a multidisciplinary neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) PATIENTS: PICU patients during a 12-month period with suspected infection, and plasma available from the time of clinical suspicion (254 episodes, 190 patients). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra. Episodes classified on the basis of clinical and bacteriological findings into: culture-confirmed sepsis, probable sepsis, localized infection, viral infection, and no infection. Plasma levels were significantly higher in episodes of culture-confirmed sepsis than in episodes with ruled-out infection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher for IL-8 and G-CSF than for IL-1ra. Combining IL-8 and G-CSF improved the diagnostic performance, particularly as to the detection of Gram-negative sepsis. Sensitivity was low (<50%) in detecting Staphylococcus epidermidis bacteremia or localized infections. CONCLUSIONS: In this heterogeneous population of critically ill children with suspected infection, a model combining plasma levels of IL-8 and G-CSF identified patients with sepsis. Negative results do not rule out S. epidermidis bacteremia or locally confined infectious processes. The model requires validation in an independent data-set.

Diagnostic approach to pupillary abnormalities.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This article presents an overview of the common and various kinds of pupillary disorders that can be encountered in an outpatient setting. RECENT FINDINGS: The dorsal midbrain is a site where lesions may produce either an afferent or an efferent pupillary defect. The classic pupillary syndrome secondary to a dorsal midbrain lesion is bilateral light-near dissociation. Another recognized deficit is bilateral mydriasis. Recent reports have documented unilateral mydriasis, unilateral light-near dissociation, and a relative afferent pupillary defect without visual loss in association with lesions of the dorsal midbrain. These are rare syndromes. SUMMARY: Careful history and examination can often identify and localize the pupillary disorder, as well as guide appropriate evaluation.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Implementation of IPM programs on European greenhouse tomato production areas: Tools and constraints

Whiteflies and whitefly-transmitted viruses are some of the major constraints on European tomato production. The main objectives of this study were to: identify where and why whiteflies are a major limitation on tomato crops; collect information about whiteflies and associated viruses; determine the available management tools; and identify key knowledge gaps and research priorities. This study was conducted within the framework of ENDURE (European Network for Durable Exploitation of Crop Protection Strategies). Two whitefly species are the main pests of tomato in Europe: Bemisia tabaci and Trialeurodes vaporariorum. Trialeurodes vaporariorum is widespread to all areas where greenhouse industry is present, and B. tabaci has invaded, since the early 1990’s, all the subtropical and tropical areas. Biotypes B and Q of B. tabaci are widespread and especially problematic. Other key tomato pests are Aculops lycopersici, Helicoverpa armigera, Frankliniella occidentalis, and leaf miners. Tomato crops are particularly susceptible to viruses causingTomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD). High incidences of this disease are associated to high pressure of its vector, B. tabaci. The ranked importance of B. tabaci established in this study correlates with the levels of insecticide use, showing B. tabaci as one of the principal drivers behind chemical control. Confirmed cases of resistance to almost all insecticides have been reported. Integrated Pest Management based on biological control (IPM-BC) is applied in all the surveyed regions and identified as the strategy using fewer insecticides. Other IPM components include greenhouse netting and TYLCD-tolerant tomato cultivars. Sampling techniques differ between regions, where decisions are generally based upon whitefly densities and do not relate to control strategies or growing cycles. For population monitoring and control, whitefly species are always identified. In Europe IPM-BC is the recommended strategy for a sustainable tomato production. The IPM-BC approach is mainly based on inoculative releases of the parasitoids Eretmocerus mundus and Encarsia formosa and/or the polyphagous predators Macrolophus caliginosus and Nesidiocoris tenuis. However, some limitations for a wider implementation have been identified: lack of biological solutions for some pests, costs of beneficials, low farmer confidence, costs of technical advice, and low pest injury thresholds. Research priorities to promote and improve IPM-BC are proposed on the following domains: (i) emergence and invasion of new whitefly-transmitted viruses; (ii) relevance of B. tabaci biotypes regarding insecticide resistance; (iii) biochemistry and genetics of plant resistance; (iv) economic thresholds and sampling techniques of whiteflies for decision making; and (v) conservation and management of native whitefly natural enemies and improvement of biological control of other tomato pests.

Cost evaluation of cardiovascular magnetic resonance versus coronary angiography for the diagnostic work-up of coronary artery disease: Application of the European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance registry data to the German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care systems.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has favorable characteristics for diagnostic evaluation and risk stratification of patients with known or suspected CAD. CMR utilization in CAD detection is growing fast. However, data on its cost-effectiveness are scarce. The goal of this study is to compare the costs of two strategies for detection of significant coronary artery stenoses in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD): 1) Performing CMR first to assess myocardial ischemia and/or infarct scar before referring positive patients (defined as presence of ischemia and/or infarct scar to coronary angiography (CXA) versus 2) a hypothetical CXA performed in all patients as a single test to detect CAD. METHODS: A subgroup of the European CMR pilot registry was used including 2,717 consecutive patients who underwent stress-CMR. From these patients, 21% were positive for CAD (ischemia and/or infarct scar), 73% negative, and 6% uncertain and underwent additional testing. The diagnostic costs were evaluated using invoicing costs of each test performed. Costs analysis was performed from a health care payer perspective in German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care settings. RESULTS: In the public sectors of the German, United Kingdom, and Swiss health care systems, cost savings from the CMR-driven strategy were 50%, 25% and 23%, respectively, versus outpatient CXA. If CXA was carried out as an inpatient procedure, cost savings were 46%, 50% and 48%, respectively. In the United States context, cost savings were 51% when compared with inpatient CXA, but higher for CMR by 8% versus outpatient CXA. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that from an economic perspective, the use of CMR should be encouraged as a management option for patients with suspected CAD.

Personal experience with diagnostic and therapeutic aspects of human Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis in Três Braços

Diagnostic and therapeutic aspects of human infection with Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis found in the littoral forest of the state of Bahia are reviewed. There is pressing need for alternative cheap oral drug therapy.

Estimation of the radiation risks in diagnostic procedures to populations and patients

Since 1895, when X-rays were discovered, ionizing radiation became part of our life. Its use in medicine has brought significant health benefits to the population globally. The benefit of any diagnostic procedure is to reduce the uncertainty about the patient's health. However, there are potential detrimental effects of radiation exposure. Therefore, radiation protection authorities have become strict regarding the control of radiation risks.¦There are various situations where the radiation risk needs to be evaluated. International authority bodies point to the increasing number of radiologic procedures and recommend population surveys. These surveys provide valuable data to public health authorities which helps them to prioritize and focus on patient groups in the population that are most highly exposed. On the other hand, physicians need to be aware of radiation risks from diagnostic procedures in order to justify and optimize the procedure and inform the patient.¦The aim of this work was to examine the different aspects of radiation protection and investigate a new method to estimate patient radiation risks.¦The first part of this work concerned radiation risk assessment from the regulatory authority point of view. To do so, a population dose survey was performed to evaluate the annual population exposure. This survey determined the contribution of different imaging modalities to the total collective dose as well as the annual effective dose per caput. It was revealed that although interventional procedures are not so frequent, they significantly contribute to the collective dose. Among the main results of this work, it was shown that interventional cardiological procedures are dose-intensive and therefore more attention should be paid to optimize the exposure.¦The second part of the project was related to the patient and physician oriented risk assessment. In this part, interventional cardiology procedures were studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The organ radiation doses as well as effective doses were estimated. Cancer incidence risks for different organs were calculated for different sex and age-at-exposure using the lifetime attributable risks provided by the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations Report VII. Advantages and disadvantages of the latter results were examined as an alternative method to estimate radiation risks. The results show that this method is the most accurate, currently available, to estimate radiation risks. The conclusions of this work may guide future studies in the field of radiation protection in medicine.¦-¦Depuis la découverte des rayons X en 1895, ce type de rayonnement a joué un rôle important dans de nombreux domaines. Son utilisation en médecine a bénéficié à la population mondiale puisque l'avantage d'un examen diagnostique est de réduire les incertitudes sur l'état de santé du patient. Cependant, leur utilisation peut conduire à l'apparition de cancers radio-induits. Par conséquent, les autorités sanitaires sont strictes quant au contrôle du risque radiologique.¦Le risque lié aux radiations doit être estimé dans différentes situations pratiques, dont l'utilisation médicale des rayons X. Les autorités internationales de radioprotection indiquent que le nombre d'examens et de procédures radiologiques augmente et elles recommandent des enquêtes visant à déterminer les doses de radiation délivrées à la population. Ces enquêtes assurent que les groupes de patients les plus à risque soient prioritaires. D'un autre côté, les médecins ont également besoin de connaître le risque lié aux radiations afin de justifier et optimiser les procédures et informer les patients.¦Le présent travail a pour objectif d'examiner les différents aspects de la radioprotection et de proposer une manière efficace pour estimer le risque radiologique au patient.¦Premièrement, le risque a été évalué du point de vue des autorités sanitaires. Une enquête nationale a été réalisée pour déterminer la contribution des différentes modalités radiologiques et des divers types d'examens à la dose efficace collective due à l'application médicale des rayons X. Bien que les procédures interventionnelles soient rares, elles contribuent de façon significative à la dose délivrée à la population. Parmi les principaux résultats de ce travail, il a été montré que les procédures de cardiologie interventionnelle délivrent des doses élevées et devraient donc être optimisées en priorité.¦La seconde approche concerne l'évaluation du risque du point de vue du patient et du médecin. Dans cette partie, des procédures interventionnelles cardiaques ont été étudiées au moyen de simulations Monte Carlo. La dose délivrée aux organes ainsi que la dose efficace ont été estimées. Les risques de développer des cancers dans plusieurs organes ont été calculés en fonction du sexe et de l'âge en utilisant la méthode établie dans Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations Report VII. Les avantages et inconvénients de cette nouvelle technique ont été examinés et comparés à ceux de la dose efficace. Les résultats ont montré que cette méthode est la plus précise actuellement disponible pour estimer le risque lié aux radiations. Les conclusions de ce travail pourront guider de futures études dans le domaine de la radioprotection en médicine.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.