The Fed Model: International Analysis

The Fed model is a widely used market valuation model. It is often used only on market analysis of the S&P 500 index as a shorthand measure for the attractiveness of equity, and as a timing device for allocating funds between equity and bonds. The Fed model assumes a fixed relationship between bond yield and earnings yield. This relationship is often assumed to be true in market valuation. In this paper we test the Fed model from historical perspective on the European markets. The markets of the United States are also includedfor comparison. The purpose of the tests is to determine if the Fed model and the underlying assumptions come true on different markets. The various tests are made on time-series data ranging from the year 1973 to the end of the year 2008. The statistical methods used are regressions analysis, cointegration analysis and Granger causality. The empirical results do not give strong support for the Fed model. The underlying relationships assumed by the Fed model are statistically not valid in most of the markets examined and therefore the model is not valid in valuation purposes generally. The results vary between the different markets which gives reason to suspect the general use of the Fed model in different market conditions and in different markets.

Eye Fundus Image Analysis for Automatic Detection of Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetes is a rapidly increasing worldwide problem which is characterised by defective metabolism of glucose that causes long-term dysfunction and failure of various organs. The most common complication of diabetes is diabetic retinopathy (DR), which is one of the primary causes of blindness and visual impairment in adults. The rapid increase of diabetes pushes the limits of the current DR screening capabilities for which the digital imaging of the eye fundus (retinal imaging), and automatic or semi-automatic image analysis algorithms provide a potential solution. In this work, the use of colour in the detection of diabetic retinopathy is statistically studied using a supervised algorithm based on one-class classification and Gaussian mixture model estimation. The presented algorithm distinguishes a certain diabetic lesion type from all other possible objects in eye fundus images by only estimating the probability density function of that certain lesion type. For the training and ground truth estimation, the algorithm combines manual annotations of several experts for which the best practices were experimentally selected. By assessing the algorithm’s performance while conducting experiments with the colour space selection, both illuminance and colour correction, and background class information, the use of colour in the detection of diabetic retinopathy was quantitatively evaluated. Another contribution of this work is the benchmarking framework for eye fundus image analysis algorithms needed for the development of the automatic DR detection algorithms. The benchmarking framework provides guidelines on how to construct a benchmarking database that comprises true patient images, ground truth, and an evaluation protocol. The evaluation is based on the standard receiver operating characteristics analysis and it follows the medical practice in the decision making providing protocols for image- and pixel-based evaluations. During the work, two public medical image databases with ground truth were published: DIARETDB0 and DIARETDB1. The framework, DR databases and the final algorithm, are made public in the web to set the baseline results for automatic detection of diabetic retinopathy. Although deviating from the general context of the thesis, a simple and effective optic disc localisation method is presented. The optic disc localisation is discussed, since normal eye fundus structures are fundamental in the characterisation of DR.

Monitoring of centrifugal pump operation by a frequency converter

Centrifugal pumps are widely used in industrial and municipal applications, and they are an important end-use application of electric energy. However, in many cases centrifugal pumps operate with a significantly lower energy efficiency than they actually could, which typically has an increasing effect on the pump energy consumption and the resulting energy costs. Typical reasons for this are the incorrect dimensioning of the pumping system components and inefficiency of the applied pump control method. Besides the increase in energy costs, an inefficient operation may increase the risk of a pump failure and thereby the maintenance costs. In the worst case, a pump failure may lead to a process shutdown accruing additional costs. Nowadays, centrifugal pumps are often controlled by adjusting their rotational speed, which affects the resulting flow rate and output pressure of the pumped fluid. Typically, the speed control is realised with a frequency converter that allows the control of the rotational speed of an induction motor. Since a frequency converter can estimate the motor rotational speed and shaft torque without external measurement sensors on the motor shaft, it also allows the development and use of sensorless methods for the estimation of the pump operation. Still today, the monitoring of pump operation is based on additional measurements and visual check-ups, which may not be applicable to determine the energy efficiency of the pump operation. This doctoral thesis concentrates on the methods that allow the use of a frequency converter as a monitoring and analysis device for a centrifugal pump. Firstly, the determination of energy-efficiency- and reliability-based limits for the recommendable operating region of a variable-speed-driven centrifugal pump is discussed with a case study for the laboratory pumping system. Then, three model-based estimation methods for the pump operating location are studied, and their accuracy is determined by laboratory tests. In addition, a novel method to detect the occurrence of cavitation or flow recirculation in a centrifugal pump by a frequency converter is introduced. Its sensitivity compared with known cavitation detection methods is evaluated, and its applicability is verified by laboratory measurements for three different pumps and by using two different frequency converters. The main focus of this thesis is on the radial flow end-suction centrifugal pumps, but the studied methods can also be feasible with mixed and axial flow centrifugal pumps, if allowed by their characteristics.

Vikasietoisuuden tutkiminen todennäköisyysperusteisen riskianalyysin avulla

Tässä työssä on tarkasteltu uusien YVL-ohjeiden vikasietoisuusanalyysin vaatimuksia sekä kehitetty menetelmä, jolla vaatimusten toteutumista voidaan tarkastella todennäköisyysperusteisen riskianalyysin (PRA) avulla. Työssä on käsitelty riskianalyysin tärkeimmät osat, sekä sen tuloksena saatavia tärkeysmittoja ja näiden soveltamiskohteita. Tärkeysmittoja on käytetty myös kehitetyn menetelmän alkuarvoina. Ydinvoimalan turvallisuuden takaamiseksi tärkeimpiä turvallisuustoimintoja suorittavien järjestelmien on pystyttävä toteuttamaan tehtävänsä, vaikka mikä tahansa järjestelmän yksittäinen laite olisi toimintakyvytön ja vaikka mikä tahansa turvallisuustoimintoon vaikuttava laite olisi samanaikaisesti poissa käytöstä korjauksen tai huollon vuoksi. Tämä edellyttää, että vikasietoisuuden takaamiseksi tärkeimpien turvallisuustoimintojen varmistamisessa on käytettävä mahdollisuuksien mukaan moninkertaisuus- ja erilaisuusperiaatteisiin perustuvia järjestelmiä, joiden tulee olla toisistaan riippumattomia. Kehitetyn menetelmän ja uuden vikasietoisuuden lisäarvomitan avulla voidaan tunnistaa järjestelmien väliset riippuvuustekijät ja tarkastella vaadittujen turvallisuustekijöiden toteutumista.

Surgical treatment of subcostal incisional hernia with polypropylene mesh - analysis of late results

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results of subcostal incisional hernia repair using polypropylene mesh, the technical aspects of musculo-aponeurotic reconstruction, routine fixation of supra-aponeurotic mesh and follow-up for five years.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study that assessed 24 patients undergoing subcostal incisional hernia repair with use of polypropylene mesh; 15 patients (62.5%) were female; ages ranged from 33 to 82, and 79.1% had comorbidities.RESULTS: Early complications: three cases (12.5%) of wound infection, three cases (12.5%) of seroma, one case (4.1%) of hematoma; and one case (4.1%) of wound dehiscence. Late complications occurred in one case (4.1%) of hernia recurrence attributed to technical failure in the fixation of the mesh and in one case (4.1%) of chronic pain. There were no cases of exposure or rejection of the mesh.CONCLUSION: The subcostal incisional hernia, though not very relevant, requires adequate surgical treatment. Its surgical correction involves rebuilding the muscle-aponeurotic defect, supra-aponeurotic fixation of polypropylene mesh, with less complexity and lower rates of complications and recurrences.

Simulation of structural stress history based on dynamic analysis

Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure’s critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody dynamic simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of floating frame of reference formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. In this work numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach in practice. The results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.

Accuracy Analysis of Frequency Converter Estimates in Diagnostic Applications

Transportation of fluids is one of the most common and energy intensive processes in the industrial and HVAC sectors. Pumping systems are frequently subject to engineering malpractice when dimensioned, which can lead to poor operational efficiency. Moreover, pump monitoring requires dedicated measuring equipment, which imply costly investments. Inefficient pump operation and improper maintenance can increase energy costs substantially and even lead to pump failure. A centrifugal pump is commonly driven by an induction motor. Driving the induction motor with a frequency converter can diminish energy consumption in pump drives and provide better control of a process. In addition, induction machine signals can also be estimated by modern frequency converters, dispensing with the use of sensors. If the estimates are accurate enough, a pump can be modelled and integrated into the frequency converter control scheme. This can open the possibility of joint motor and pump monitoring and diagnostics, thereby allowing the detection of reliability-reducing operating states that can lead to additional maintenance costs. The goal of this work is to study the accuracy of rotational speed, torque and shaft power estimates calculated by a frequency converter. Laboratory tests were performed in order to observe estimate behaviour in both steady-state and transient operation. An induction machine driven by a vector-controlled frequency converter, coupled with another induction machine acting as load was used in the tests. The estimated quantities were obtained through the frequency converter’s Trend Recorder software. A high-precision, HBM T12 torque-speed transducer was used to measure the actual values of the aforementioned variables. The effect of the flux optimization energy saving feature on the estimate quality was also studied. A processing function was developed in MATLAB for comparison of the obtained data. The obtained results confirm the suitability of this particular converter to provide accurate enough estimates for pumping applications.

Is there correlation between the turbulent eddies size and mechanical hemolysis ?

Hemolytic profile of an artificial device chronically implanted in the cardiovascular system may represent the difference between the success and failure in its long-term performance. Last decades have witnessed efforts on the development of methods capable of predicting red blood cell damage in artificial organs. However, all of them have had limited success to predict hemolysis. The primary cause of this problem is that such models do not take into consideration structures of turbulent flow. The present paper demonstrates that microscopic measurable occurrences of the turbulent flow may be linked to red blood cell trauma. This study suggests that if the smallest turbulent eddies dimension is under 10 m m hemolysis is not dependent on the exposure time and the red blood cells damage depends only on the dissipation of the turbulent energy in the erythrocyte membrane. The analysis reported here opens the possibility of mapping the flow field in artificial assist devices based on the smallest eddy length scales. This is a promising new trend and should be considered in the designing requirements of the next generations of artificial organs.

Model based analysis of the post-combustion calcium looping process for carbon dioxide capture

This thesis presents a one-dimensional, semi-empirical dynamic model for the simulation and analysis of a calcium looping process for post-combustion CO2 capture. Reduction of greenhouse emissions from fossil fuel power production requires rapid actions including the development of efficient carbon capture and sequestration technologies. The development of new carbon capture technologies can be expedited by using modelling tools. Techno-economical evaluation of new capture processes can be done quickly and cost-effectively with computational models before building expensive pilot plants. Post-combustion calcium looping is a developing carbon capture process which utilizes fluidized bed technology with lime as a sorbent. The main objective of this work was to analyse the technological feasibility of the calcium looping process at different scales with a computational model. A one-dimensional dynamic model was applied to the calcium looping process, simulating the behaviour of the interconnected circulating fluidized bed reactors. The model incorporates fundamental mass and energy balance solvers to semi-empirical models describing solid behaviour in a circulating fluidized bed and chemical reactions occurring in the calcium loop. In addition, fluidized bed combustion, heat transfer and core-wall layer effects were modelled. The calcium looping model framework was successfully applied to a 30 kWth laboratory scale and a pilot scale unit 1.7 MWth and used to design a conceptual 250 MWth industrial scale unit. Valuable information was gathered from the behaviour of a small scale laboratory device. In addition, the interconnected behaviour of pilot plant reactors and the effect of solid fluidization on the thermal and carbon dioxide balances of the system were analysed. The scale-up study provided practical information on the thermal design of an industrial sized unit, selection of particle size and operability in different load scenarios.

Radio-frequency-based measurement methods for bearing current analysis in induction motors

The most common reason for a low-voltage induction motor breakdown is a bearing failure. Along with the increasing popularity of modern frequency converters, bearing failures have become the most important motor fault type. Conditions in which bearing currents are likely to occur are generated as a side effect of fast du/dt switching transients. Once present, different types of bearing currents can accelerate the mechanical wear of bearings by causing deformation of metal parts in the bearing and degradation of the lubricating oil properties.The bearing current phenomena are well known, and several bearing current measurement and mitigation methods have been proposed. Nevertheless, in order to develop more feasible methods to measure and mitigate bearing currents, better knowledge of the phenomena is required. When mechanical wear is caused by bearing currents, the resulting aging impact has to be monitored and dealt with. Moreover, because of the stepwise aging mechanism, periodically executed condition monitoring measurements have been found ineffective. Thus, there is a need for feasible bearing current measurement methods that can be applied in parallel with the normal operation of series production drive systems. In order to reach the objectives of feasibility and applicability, nonintrusive measurement methods are preferred. In this doctoral dissertation, the characteristics and conditions of bearings that are related to the occurrence of different kinds of bearing currents are studied. Further, the study introduces some nonintrusive radio-frequency-signal-based approaches to detect and measure parameters that are associated with the accelerated bearing wear caused by bearing currents.

Letters from the War of Ecosystems – An Analysis of Independent Software Vendors in Mobile Application Marketplaces

The recent emergence of a new generation of mobile application marketplaces has changed the business in the mobile ecosystems. The marketplaces have gathered over a million applications by hundreds of thousands of application developers and publishers. Thus, software ecosystems—consisting of developers, consumers and the orchestrator—have emerged as a part of the mobile ecosystem. This dissertation addresses the new challenges faced by mobile application developers in the new ecosystems through empirical methods. By using the theories of two-sided markets and business ecosystems as the basis, the thesis assesses monetization and value creation in the market as well as the impact of electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM) and developer multihoming— i. e. contributing for more than one platform—in the ecosystems. The data for the study was collected with web crawling from the three biggest marketplaces: Apple App Store, Google Play and Windows Phone Store. The dissertation consists of six individual articles. The results of the studies show a gap in monetization among the studied applications, while a majority of applications are produced by small or micro-enterprises. The study finds only weak support for the impact of eWOM on the sales of an application in the studied ecosystem. Finally, the study reveals a clear difference in the multi-homing rates between the top application developers and the rest. This has, as discussed in the thesis, an impact on the future market analyses—it seems that the smart device market can sustain several parallel application marketplaces.

Eradication of Helicobacter pylori infection in patients with duodenal ulcer and non-ulcer dyspepsia and analysis of one-year reinfection rates

Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection is endemic worldwide. The proposed treatment is expensive and there are few reports regarding reinfection rates in Brazil. The aim of this study was to compare the eradication rates obtained with two therapeutic options and to evaluate reinfection one year after treatment. This was a prospective randomized trial with 55 patients. Thirty-nine patients had active duodenal ulcer (DU) and 16 non-ulcer dyspepsia (NUD), and all tested positive for HP. Diagnosis was based on at least two positive tests: ultrarapid urease test, histology and/or culture. Patients were randomized to two groups: group OMC treated with 40 mg omeprazole (once a day), 500 mg metronidazole and 250 mg clarithromycin (twice daily) for 7 days, or group NA treated with 300 mg nizatidine (once a day) and 1000 mg amoxicillin (twice daily) for 14 days. Those patients in whom HP was eradicated were followed up for one year to evaluate reinfection. Twenty-five patients were randomized for OMC and 30 for NA. HP eradication occurred in 20/25 patients (80%) treated with OMC and 13/30 (43%) treated with NA (P = 0.01). After reallocation because of initial treatment failure, the overall eradication rate was 44/51 patients (86%). After an average follow-up of one year, we evaluated 34 patients (23 with DU and 11 with NUD). Reinfection occurred in 3/34 patients (7.6%). We conclude that OMC is effective for HP eradication, and that NA should not be used. Reinfection occurs in 7.6% of the patients in the first year after eradication.

Influence of acute renal failure on the mononuclear phagocytic system

Several studies show the ability of macrophages to remove particles injected into the bloodstream. This function seems to be increased in the presence of acute renal failure. The objective of the present study was to assess the phagocytic function of the main organs (spleen, liver and lung) of the mononuclear phagocytic system in renal and postrenal failures. Fifteen rats (250-350 g) were divided into three groups (N = 5): group I - control; group II - ligature of both ureters, and group III - bilateral nephrectomy. On the third postoperative day, all animals received an iv injection of 1 ml/kg 99mTc sulfur colloid. Blood samples were collected for the assessment of plasma urea, creatinine, sodium, and potassium concentrations and arterial gasometry. Samples of liver, spleen, lung and blood clots were obtained and radioactivity was measured. Samples of liver, spleen, lung and kidney were prepared for routine histopathological analysis. Plasma urea, creatinine and potassium concentrations in groups II and III were higher than in group I (P<0.05). Plasma sodium concentrations in groups II and III were lower than in group I (P<0.05). Compensated metabolic acidosis was observed in the presence of postrenal failure. Group II animals showed a lower level of radioactivity in the spleen (0.98) and lung (2.63), and a higher level in the liver (105.51) than control. Group III animals showed a lower level of radioactivity in the spleen (11.94) and a higher level in the liver (61.80), lung (11.30) and blood clot (5.13) than control. In groups II and III liver steatosis and bronchopneumonia were observed. Renal and postrenal failures seem to interfere with blood clearance by the mononuclear phagocytic system.

Bronchial hyperresponsiveness and analysis of induced sputum cells in Crohn's disease

With the aim of investigating the presence of latent inflammatory process in the lungs of patients with Crohn's disease, 15 patients with Crohn's disease were evaluated by spirometry, the methacholine challenge test, induced sputum, and skin tests for inhaled antigens. Serum IgE, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and hematocrit were also determined. The patients were compared with 20 healthy controls by the Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests. Their respiratory physical examination was normal. None had a personal or family history of clinical atopy. None had a previous history of pulmonary disease, smoking or toxic bronchopulmonary exposure. None had sinusitis, migraine, diabetes mellitus, or cardiac failure. Four (26.6%) of the patients with Crohn's disease had a positive methacholine challenge test whereas none of the 20 controls had a positive methacholine test (P = 0.026, Fisher exact test). Patients with Crohn's disease had a higher level of lymphocytes in induced sputum than controls (mean 14.59%, range 3.2-50 vs 5.46%, 0-26.92%, respectively; P = 0.011, Mann-Whitney test). Patients with Crohn's disease and a positive methacholine challenge test had an even higher percentage of lymphocytes in induced sputum compared with patients with Crohn's disease and a negative methacholine test (mean 24.88%, range 12.87-50 vs 10.48%, 3.2-21.69%; P = 0.047, Mann-Whitney test). The simultaneous findings of bronchopulmonary lymphocytosis and bronchial hyperresponsiveness in patients with Crohn's disease were not reported up to now. These results suggest that patients with Crohn's disease present a subclinical inflammatory process despite the absence of pulmonary symptoms.

Incidence, risk factors and prognostic factors of acute renal failure in patients admitted to an intensive care unit

The objective of the present study was to assess the incidence, risk factors and outcome of patients who develop acute renal failure (ARF) in intensive care units. In this prospective observational study, 221 patients with a 48-h minimum stay, 18-year-old minimum age and absence of overt acute or chronic renal failure were included. Exclusion criteria were organ donors and renal transplantation patients. ARF was defined as a creatinine level above 1.5 mg/dL. Statistics were performed using Pearsons' chi2 test, Student t-test, and Wilcoxon test. Multivariate analysis was run using all variables with P < 0.1 in the univariate analysis. ARF developed in 19.0% of the patients, with 76.19% resulting in death. Main risk factors (univariate analysis) were: higher intra-operative hydration and bleeding, higher death risk by APACHE II score, logist organ dysfunction system on the first day, mechanical ventilation, shock due to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis, noradrenaline use, and plasma creatinine and urea levels on admission. Heart rate on admission (OR = 1.023 (1.002-1.044)), male gender (OR = 4.275 (1.340-13642)), shock due to SIRS/sepsis (OR = 8.590 (2.710-27.229)), higher intra-operative hydration (OR = 1.002 (1.000-1004)), and plasma urea on admission (OR = 1.012 (0.980-1044)) remained significant (multivariate analysis). The mortality risk factors (univariate analysis) were shock due to SIRS/sepsis, mechanical ventilation, blood stream infection, potassium and bicarbonate levels. Only potassium levels remained significant (P = 0.037). In conclusion, ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality when it occurs in intensive care unit. There is a very close association with hemodynamic status and multiple organ dysfunction.