The importance of online tourism demand

In recent decades, the combination of tourism and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), has originated considerable changes in tourists’ behaviour. The analysis of tourism demand resulting from the Internet is of growing importance, given the increasing number of online reservations observed in recent years. However, in order to analyse the new trends caused by online bookings, the availability of data enabling the measurement and characterization of this phenomenon is essential. This has, however, been a considerable limitation, given that either no data on key variables is available or the available data is sometimes of questionable quality. For professionals and researchers in the area of tourism, the high volume of tourists who use the Internet to make hotel and travel reservations is worth of consideration, given that it may potentiate the discovery of new source markets, the identification of clients with different characteristics and may help explain the dynamics between suppliers or countries. The existence of predictive studies to support decision-making and planning, by professionals of the tourism sector, is of great importance. Panel data models are a useful and appropriate method for the analysis and modelling of tourism demand. These models consider both the time series and the cross-sectional dimensions of the data and allow for the inclusion of social variables. The results of estimation of tourism demand, through panel data models, show that the Internet and the sharp technological development have encouraged the increasing demand for tourism. The growing number of tourism companies online will naturally promote or potentiate an increase of tourism demand.

Genesis of the brecciated rocks from mid atlantic ridge hydrothermal systems : Lucky Strike (37º50’N) and Menez Gwen (37º50’N)

Tese de doutoramento, Geologia (Metalogenia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

A Community-Level, Mesoscale Analysis of Fish Assemblage Structure in Shoreline Habitats of a Large River Using Multivariate Regression Trees.

The mesoscale (100–102 m) of river habitats has been identified as the scale that simultaneously offers insights into ecological structure and falls within the practical bounds of river management. Mesoscale habitat (mesohabitat) classifications for relatively large rivers, however, are underdeveloped compared with those produced for smaller streams. Approaches to habitat modelling have traditionally focused on individual species or proceeded on a species-by-species basis. This is particularly problematic in larger rivers where the effects of biological interactions are more complex and intense. Community-level approaches can rapidly model many species simultaneously, thereby integrating the effects of biological interactions while providing information on the relative importance of environmental variables in structuring the community. One such community-level approach, multivariate regression trees, was applied in order to determine the relative influences of abiotic factors on fish assemblages within shoreline mesohabitats of San Pedro River, Chile, and to define reference communities prior to the planned construction of a hydroelectric power plant. Flow depth, bank materials and the availability of riparian and instream cover, including woody debris, were the main variables driving differences between the assemblages. Species strongly indicative of distinctive mesohabitat types included the endemic Galaxias platei. Among other outcomes, the results provide information on the impact of non-native salmonids on river-dwelling Galaxias platei, suggesting a degree of habitat segregation between these taxa based on flow depth. The results support the use of the mesohabitat concept in large, relatively pristine river systems, and they represent a basis for assessing the impact of any future hydroelectric power plant construction and operation. By combing community classifications with simple sets of environmental rules, the multivariate regression trees produced can be used to predict the community structure of any mesohabitat along the reach.

Effect of hole drilling at the overlap on the strength of single-lap joints

Bonded unions are gaining importance in many fields of manufacturing owing to a significant number of advantages to the traditional fastening, riveting, bolting and welding techniques. Between the available bonding configurations, the single-lap joint is the most commonly used and studied by the scientific community due to its simplicity, although it endures significant bending due to the non-collinear load path, which negatively affects its load bearing capabilities. The use of material or geometric changes in single-lap joints is widely documented in the literature to reduce this handicap, acting by reduction of peel and shear peak stresses at the damage initiation sites in structures or alterations of the failure mechanism emerging from local modifications. In this work, the effect of hole drilling at the overlap on the strength of single-lap joints was analyzed experimentally with two main purposes: (1) to check whether or not the anchorage effect of the adhesive within the holes is more preponderant than the stress concentrations near the holes, arising from the sharp edges, and modification of the joints straining behaviour (strength improvement or reduction, respectively) and (2) picturing a real scenario on which the components to be bonded are modified by some external factor (e.g. retrofitting of decaying/old-fashioned fastened unions). Tests were made with two adhesives (a brittle and a ductile one) varying the adherend thickness and the number, layout and diameter of the holes. Experimental testing showed that the joints strength never increases from the un-modified condition, showing a varying degree of weakening, depending on the selected adhesive and hole drilling configuration.

Genetics of berry colour and anthocyanin content variation in grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.subsp. vinifera)

Dissertation presented in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Biology (Molecular Genetics) at the Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Regulation and function of the cell wall polymer lipoteichoic acid in staphylococcus aureus

A thesis submitted for the Degree of Master in Medical microbiology

Preoperative nutritional screening by the specialist instead of the nutritional risk score might prevent excess nutrition: a multivariate analysis of nutritional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess whether widely used nutritional parameters are correlated with the nutritional risk score (NRS-2002) to identify postoperative morbidity and to evaluate the role of nutritionists in nutritional assessment. METHODS: A randomized trial on preoperative nutritional interventions (NCT00512213) provided the study cohort of 152 patients at nutritional risk (NRS-2002 ≥3) with a comprehensive phenotyping including diverse nutritional parameters (n=17), elaborated by nutritional specialists, and potential demographic and surgical (n=5) confounders. Risk factors for overall, severe (Dindo-Clavien 3-5) and infectious complications were identified by univariate analysis; parameters with P<0.20 were then entered in a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 140 patients with complete datasets. Of these, 61 patients (43.6%) were overweight, and 72 patients (51.4%) experienced at least one complication of any degree of severity. Univariate analysis identified a correlation between few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=4.94; 95% CI: 1.47-16.56, p=0.01) and overall complications. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less overall complications compared to the not malnourished (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97, p=0.043). Severe postoperative complications occurred more often in patients with low lean body mass (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1-1.12, p=0.028). Few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=8.8; 95% CI: 1.12-68.99, p=0.008) were related with postoperative infections. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less infectious complications (OR=0.28; 95% CI: 0.1-0.78), p=0.014) as compared to the not malnourished. Multivariate analysis identified few co-morbidities (OR=6.33; 95% CI: 1.75-22.84, p=0.005), low weight loss (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, p=0.006) and low hemoglobin concentration (OR=2.84; 95% CI: 1.22-6.59, p=0.021) as independent risk factors for overall postoperative complications. Compliance with nutritional supplements (OR=0.37; 95% CI: 0.14-0.97, p=0.041) and supplementation of malnourished patients as assessed by nutritional specialists (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.69, p=0.009) were independently associated with decreased infectious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional support based upon NRS-2002 screening might result in overnutrition, with potentially deleterious clinical consequences. We emphasize the importance of detailed assessment of the nutritional status by a dedicated specialist before deciding on early nutritional intervention for patients with an initial NRS-2002 score of ≥3.

The Credibility and Authoritativeness of Documentary Information in Determining Refugee Status: The Canadian Experience

This article reviews the origins of the Documentation, Information and Research Branch (the 'Documentation Center') of Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB), established in 1988 as a part of a major revision of the procedure for determination of refugee status. The Documentation Center conducts research to produce documents describing conditions in refugee-producing countries, and also disseminates information from outside. The information is available to decision-makers, IRB staff, counsel and claimants. Given the importance of decisions on refugee status, the article looks at the credibility and the authoritativeness of the information, by analyzing the structure of information used. It recalls the different types of information 'package' produced, such as a country profiles and the Question and Answer Series, the Weekly Madia Review, the 'Perspectives' series, Responses to Information Requests and Country files, and considers the trend towards standardization across the country. The research process is reviewed, as are the hiring criteria for researchers, the composition of the 'collection', how acquisitions are made, and the development of databases, particularly on country of origin (human rights material) and legal information, which are accessible on-line. The author examines how documentary information can be used by decision-makers to draw conclusions as to whether the claim has a credible basis or the claimant has a well-founded fear of persecution. Relevant caselaw is available to assess and weigh the claim. The experience of Amnesty International in similar work is cited for comparative purposes. A number of 'safeguards' are mentioned, which contribute to the goal of impartiality in research, or which otherwise enhance the credibility of the information, and the author suggests that guidelines might be drafted to explain and assist in the realization of these aims. Greater resources might also enable the Center to undertake the task of 'certifying' the authoritativeness of sources. The author concludes that, as a new institution in Canadian administrative law, the Documentation Center opens interesting avenues for the future. Beacause it ensures an acceptable degree of impartiality of its research and the documents it produces, it may be a useful model for others tribunals adjudicating in fields where evidence is either difficult to gather, or is otherwise complex.

An Epistemic Argument in Support of Liberal Neutrality

My aim in the present paper is to develop a new kind of argument in support of the ideal of liberal neutrality. This argument combines some basic moral principles with a thesis about the relationship between the correct standards of justification for a belief/action and certain contextual factors. The idea is that the level of importance of what is at stake in a specific context of action determines how demanding the correct standards to justify an action based on a specific set of beliefs ought to be. In certain exceptional contexts –where the seriousness of harm in case of mistake and the level of an agent’s responsibility for the outcome of his action are specially high– a very small probability of making a mistake should be recognized as a good reason to avoid to act based on beliefs that we nonetheless affirm with a high degree of confidence and that actually justify our action in other contexts. The further steps of the argument consist in probing 1) that the fundamental state’s policies are such a case of exceptional context, 2) that perfectionist policies are the type of actions we should avoid, and 3) that policies that satisfy neutral standards of justification are not affected by the reasons which lead to reject perfectionist policies.

Linear block copolymers of L–lactide and 2–dimethylaminoethyl methacrylate : synthesis and properties

Part of the research described in this thesis is conducted in collaboration with Centre d' étude et de Recherche sur les Macromolécules (CERM), Université de Liège, Sart-Tilman, Belgium

Impact of the ego-dystonic nature of obsessions on treatment outcome in eating disorders

Il s'agit d'une hypothèse largement répandue que l’égo-dystonie et l’égo-syntonie caractérisent les obsessions dans les troubles des conduites alimentaires (TCA) et que ces facteurs sont cliniquement pertinents pour la conceptualisation et le traitement des TCA. Cependant, les résultats empiriques sur ce sujet sont rares. Compte tenu du chevauchement reconnu entre les TCA, notamment l'anorexie et la boulimie (BN), et le trouble obsessionnel-compulsif (TOC) dans la phénoménologie et les caractéristiques psychologiques, un programme de thérapie cognitive basée sur les inférences (TBI) de 24 semaines, démontré efficace dans le traitement des TOC, a été adapté pour traiter les TCA. La recherche sur le TOC suggère que la transformation des pensées intrusives en obsessions est liée à la mesure dans laquelle les pensées intrusives menacent des perceptions fondamentales du soi et de l’identité. Cette thèse a pour objectif d'examiner le lien entre l’égo-dystonie et les TCA. Pour se faire, nous avons exploré le lien entre la nature égo-dystone des obsessions chez les patients souffrant d'un TCA et la peur de l'image de soi. Nous avons également étudié la relation entre la sévérité des symptômes TCA et l’égo-dystonie dans les obsessions. En outre, nous avons investigué les différences dans la présence de pensées égo-dystones et de peur face à son identité entre des sujets non-cliniques et des personnes atteintes d’un TCA. Enfin, nous avons comparé le degré d’égo-dystonie dans les pensées de personnes atteintes d’un TCA à celui dans les pensées d’individus souffrant d’un TOC. L’égo-dystonie dans les pensées a été mesurée par l'Ego Dystonicity Questionnaire (EDQ) et le degré de peur face à l’identité a été mesuré par le Fear of Self Questionnaire (FSQ) d’une part dans un échantillon de femmes souffrant d’un TCA (n = 57) et d’autre part dans un échantillon de participantes non-cliniques (n = 45). Les résultats révèlent que l’égo-dystonie et la peur face à l’identité étaient fortement corrélées à la fois dans l’échantillon clinique et non-clinique. Les scores de l’EDQ n’étaient pas significativement corrélés à la sévérité des symptômes TCA à l'exception de la sous-échelle d’irrationalité de l’EDQ qui était fortement associée à la sévérité des comportements compulsifs compensatoires. Les participantes souffrant d'un TCA avaient des scores significativement plus élevés à l’EDQ et au FSQ que les sujets non-cliniques. Ensuite, une étude de cas décrit l’application du programme de thérapie cognitive TBI pour une femme de 35 ans avec un diagnostic de BN. La pathologie TCA s’est significativement améliorée au cours de la TBI et six mois suivant la thérapie. Cette étude de cas met en évidence l'importance de cibler les idées surévaluées, les doutes et le raisonnement face au soi et à l’identité dans le traitement psychologique pour les TCA. Enfin, l’objectif final de cette thèse était d’examiner les changements au niveau (1) des symptômes TCA, (2) du degré d’égo-syntonie dans les obsessions, et (3) des mesures de peur face à l’identité, de motivation, d’humeur et d’anxiété au cours de la TBI et au suivi post six mois. L’égo-dystonie, la peur face à l’identité, les symptômes TCA et le stade motivationnel ont été mesurés chez 15 femmes souffrant de BN au cours du traitement et six mois après la TBI. Quatre vingt pourcent de l’échantillon, soit 12 des 15 participantes, ont démontré une diminution cliniquement significative des symptômes TCA et 53% ont cessé leurs comportements compensatoires au suivi post six mois. Les retombées cliniques relatives au traitement des TCA sont discutées.

Studies on the digestive enzymes of the Indian white prawn Penaeus indicus H. Milne Edwards

The efficiency of a diet not only depends on its nutrient composition and nutrient balance but also on the effective utilization by the animal. In the utilization of dietary nutrients, the digestive enzymes play the crucial role of catalysing the hydrolytic reactions, splitting the macromolecules into simple absorbable molecules. The activity of these biocatalysts is regulated by alterations in pH, temperature, substrate type and concentrations, and also by the presence of activators and inhibitors. Thus any shift from the optimum conditions necessary for these enzymes may affect their activity, thereby correspondingly modify the digestibility of the nutrients supplied to the animals. Thus, investigations on the important digestive enzymes and their preferential conditions of activity are essential, so that the results obtained could be used in rationally adjusting the quality and quantity of feed supplied to the different stages of prawns In India, directed research on nutritional physiology and biochemical approaches to digestion in commercially important prawns is taken up_ only recently, and the field is still in an infant stage. In view of its emerging importance it is identified as an area of priority and the present investigation has been carried out on the Indian white prawn Penaeus indicus

Information needs for a purchase of fairtrade coffee

This research investigates what information German Fairtrade coffee consumers search for during pre-purchase information seeking and to what extent information is retrieved. Furthermore, the sequence of the information search as well as the degree of cognitive involvement is highlighted. The role of labeling, the importance of additional ethical information and its quality in terms of concreteness as well as the importance of product price and organic origin are addressed. A set of information relevant to Fairtrade consumers was tested by means of the Information Display Matrix (IDM) method with 389 Fairtrade consumers. Results show that prior to purchase, information on product packages plays an important role and is retrieved rather extensively, but search strategies that reduce the information processing effort are applied as well. Furthermore, general information is preferred over specific information. Results of two regression analyses indicate that purchase decisions are related to search behavior variables rather than to socio-demographic variables and purchase motives. In order to match product information with consumers’ needs, marketers should offer information that is reduced to the central aspects of Fairtrade.

Conceptual design of wastewater treatment plants using multiple objectives

La implementació de la Directiva Europea 91/271/CEE referent a tractament d'aigües residuals urbanes va promoure la construcció de noves instal·lacions al mateix temps que la introducció de noves tecnologies per tractar nutrients en àrees designades com a sensibles. Tant el disseny d'aquestes noves infraestructures com el redisseny de les ja existents es va portar a terme a partir d'aproximacions basades fonamentalment en objectius econòmics degut a la necessitat d'acabar les obres en un període de temps relativament curt. Aquests estudis estaven basats en coneixement heurístic o correlacions numèriques provinents de models determinístics simplificats. Així doncs, moltes de les estacions depuradores d'aigües residuals (EDARs) resultants van estar caracteritzades per una manca de robustesa i flexibilitat, poca controlabilitat, amb freqüents problemes microbiològics de separació de sòlids en el decantador secundari, elevats costos d'operació i eliminació parcial de nutrients allunyant-les de l'òptim de funcionament. Molts d'aquestes problemes van sorgir degut a un disseny inadequat, de manera que la comunitat científica es va adonar de la importància de les etapes inicials de disseny conceptual. Precisament per aquesta raó, els mètodes tradicionals de disseny han d'evolucionar cap a sistemes d'avaluació mes complexos, que tinguin en compte múltiples objectius, assegurant així un millor funcionament de la planta. Tot i la importància del disseny conceptual tenint en compte múltiples objectius, encara hi ha un buit important en la literatura científica tractant aquest camp d'investigació. L'objectiu que persegueix aquesta tesi és el de desenvolupar un mètode de disseny conceptual d'EDARs considerant múltiples objectius, de manera que serveixi d'eina de suport a la presa de decisions al seleccionar la millor alternativa entre diferents opcions de disseny. Aquest treball de recerca contribueix amb un mètode de disseny modular i evolutiu que combina diferent tècniques com: el procés de decisió jeràrquic, anàlisi multicriteri, optimació preliminar multiobjectiu basada en anàlisi de sensibilitat, tècniques d'extracció de coneixement i mineria de dades, anàlisi multivariant i anàlisi d'incertesa a partir de simulacions de Monte Carlo. Això s'ha aconseguit subdividint el mètode de disseny desenvolupat en aquesta tesis en quatre blocs principals: (1) generació jeràrquica i anàlisi multicriteri d'alternatives, (2) anàlisi de decisions crítiques, (3) anàlisi multivariant i (4) anàlisi d'incertesa. El primer dels blocs combina un procés de decisió jeràrquic amb anàlisi multicriteri. El procés de decisió jeràrquic subdivideix el disseny conceptual en una sèrie de qüestions mes fàcilment analitzables i avaluables mentre que l'anàlisi multicriteri permet la consideració de diferent objectius al mateix temps. D'aquesta manera es redueix el nombre d'alternatives a avaluar i fa que el futur disseny i operació de la planta estigui influenciat per aspectes ambientals, econòmics, tècnics i legals. Finalment aquest bloc inclou una anàlisi de sensibilitat dels pesos que proporciona informació de com varien les diferents alternatives al mateix temps que canvia la importància relativa del objectius de disseny. El segon bloc engloba tècniques d'anàlisi de sensibilitat, optimització preliminar multiobjectiu i extracció de coneixement per donar suport al disseny conceptual d'EDAR, seleccionant la millor alternativa un cop s'han identificat decisions crítiques. Les decisions crítiques són aquelles en les que s'ha de seleccionar entre alternatives que compleixen de forma similar els objectius de disseny però amb diferents implicacions pel que respecte a la futura estructura i operació de la planta. Aquest tipus d'anàlisi proporciona una visió més àmplia de l'espai de disseny i permet identificar direccions desitjables (o indesitjables) cap on el procés de disseny pot derivar. El tercer bloc de la tesi proporciona l'anàlisi multivariant de les matrius multicriteri obtingudes durant l'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny. Específicament, les tècniques utilitzades en aquest treball de recerca engloben: 1) anàlisi de conglomerats, 2) anàlisi de components principals/anàlisi factorial i 3) anàlisi discriminant. Com a resultat és possible un millor accés a les dades per realitzar la selecció de les alternatives, proporcionant més informació per a una avaluació mes efectiva, i finalment incrementant el coneixement del procés d'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny generades. En el quart i últim bloc desenvolupat en aquesta tesi, les diferents alternatives de disseny són avaluades amb incertesa. L'objectiu d'aquest bloc és el d'estudiar el canvi en la presa de decisions quan una alternativa és avaluada incloent o no incertesa en els paràmetres dels models que descriuen el seu comportament. La incertesa en el paràmetres del model s'introdueix a partir de funcions de probabilitat. Desprès es porten a terme simulacions Monte Carlo, on d'aquestes distribucions se n'extrauen números aleatoris que es subsisteixen pels paràmetres del model i permeten estudiar com la incertesa es propaga a través del model. Així és possible analitzar la variació en l'acompliment global dels objectius de disseny per a cada una de les alternatives, quines són les contribucions en aquesta variació que hi tenen els aspectes ambientals, legals, econòmics i tècnics, i finalment el canvi en la selecció d'alternatives quan hi ha una variació de la importància relativa dels objectius de disseny. En comparació amb les aproximacions tradicionals de disseny, el mètode desenvolupat en aquesta tesi adreça problemes de disseny/redisseny tenint en compte múltiples objectius i múltiples criteris. Al mateix temps, el procés de presa de decisions mostra de forma objectiva, transparent i sistemàtica el perquè una alternativa és seleccionada en front de les altres, proporcionant l'opció que més bé acompleix els objectius marcats, mostrant els punts forts i febles, les principals correlacions entre objectius i alternatives, i finalment tenint en compte la possible incertesa inherent en els paràmetres del model que es fan servir durant les anàlisis. Les possibilitats del mètode desenvolupat es demostren en aquesta tesi a partir de diferents casos d'estudi: selecció del tipus d'eliminació biològica de nitrogen (cas d'estudi # 1), optimització d'una estratègia de control (cas d'estudi # 2), redisseny d'una planta per aconseguir eliminació simultània de carboni, nitrogen i fòsfor (cas d'estudi # 3) i finalment anàlisi d'estratègies control a nivell de planta (casos d'estudi # 4 i # 5).

A global climatology of wind–wave interaction

Generally, ocean waves are thought to act as a drag on the surface wind so that momentum is transferred downwards, from the atmosphere into the waves. Recent observations have suggested that when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the surface wind momentum can also be transferred upwards. This upward momentum transfer acts to accelerate the near-surface wind, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. Previous studies have suggested that the sign reversal of the momentum flux is well predicted by the inverse wave age, the ratio of the surface wind speed to the speed of the waves at the peak of the spectrum. ECMWF ERA-40 data has been used here to calculate the global distribution of the inverse wave age to determine whether there are regions of the ocean that are usually in the wind-driven wave regime and others that are generally in the wave-driven wind regime. The wind-driven wave regime is found to occur most often in the mid-latitude storm tracks where wind speeds are generally high. The wave-driven wind regime is found to be prevalent in the tropics where wind speeds are generally light and swell can propagate from storms at higher latitudes. The inverse wave age is also a useful indicator of the degree of coupling between the local wind and wave fields. The climatologies presented emphasise the non-equilibrium that exists between the local wind and wave fields and highlight the importance of swell in the global oceans.