The Value of Private Information within Evolving Groups

This note offers an analytical framework aimed at explaining how individual agents purposefully act with the goal of managing the value of their information sets. Agents undertake a process of private accumulation of information, which takes into account the non-rival nature of this peculiar entity. Non rivalry introduces an externality that might trigger long-term endogenous fluctuations. The dynamics of interaction, namely the possibility of entering or exiting the group to which the individuals belong, wil l determine time trajectories for the information flows that are unique for the specific conditions of interaction that are being considered at a given momentEste artigo apresenta uma estrutura analítica que tem por objetivo explicar como é que os agentes individuais atuam, de modo intencional, com o propósito de gerir o valor da informação que detêm. Os agentes prosseguem um processo de acumulação privada de informação, o qual toma em consideração a natureza não rival desta entidade que detém características específicas. A não rivalidade introduz uma externalidade que pode despoletar flutuações endógenas de longo prazo. A dinâmica de interação, nomeadamente a possibilidade de entrar ou sair do grupo a que os indivíduos pertencem, vai determinar a formação de trajetórias no tempo para os fluxos de informação, as quais são únicas para as condições particulares de interação que estão a ser consideradas num determinado momento.

The social value of health programs: Is age a relevant factor?

In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) it is usually assumed that a QALY is of equal value to everybody, irrespective of the patient's age. However, it is possible that society assigns different social values to a QALY according to who gets it. In this paper we discuss the possibility of weighting health benefits for age in CEA. We also examinethe possibility that age-related preferences depend on the size of the health gain. An experiment was performedto test these hypotheses. The results assessing suggest that the patient's age is a relevant factor when assessing health gains.

Perceptual mapping of practical ethics along the value chain: A multiple correspondence analysis with industry and cultural indices as supplementary variables

This paper presents findings from a study investigating a firm s ethical practices along the value chain. In so doing we attempt to better understand potential relationships between a firm s ethical stance with its customers and those of its suppliers within a supply chain and identify particular sectoral and cultural influences that might impinge on this. Drawing upon a database comprising of 667 industrial firms from 27 different countries, we found that ethical practices begin with the firm s relationship with its customers, the characteristics of which then influence the ethical stance with the firm s suppliers within the supply chain. Importantly, market structure along with some key cultural characteristics were also found to exert significant influence on the implementation of ethical policies in these firms.

Reputation and honesty in a market for information

Previous works on asymmetric information in asset markets tendto focus on the potential gains in the asset market itself. We focus on the market for information and conduct an experimental study to explore, in a game of finite but uncertain duration, whether reputation can be an effective constraint on deliberate misinformation. At the beginning of each period, an uninformed potential asset buyer can purchase information, at a fixed price and from a fully-informed source, about the value of the asset in that period. The informational insiders cannot purchase the asset and are given short-term incentives to provide false information when the asset value is low. Our model predicts that, in accordance with the Folk Theorem, Pareto-superior outcomes featuring truthful revelation should be sustainable. However, this depends critically on beliefs about rationality and behavior. We find that, overall, sellers are truthful 89% of the time. More significantly, the observed frequency of truthfulness is 81% when the asset value is low. Our result is consistent with both mixed-strategy and trigger strategy interpretations and provides evidence that most subjects correctly anticipate rational behavior. We discuss applications to financial markets, media regulation, and the stability of cartels.

Weak and strong altruism in traitgGroups: Reproductive suicide, personal fitness and expected value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as themechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductivesuicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness whileaugmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingentsuicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphicwith a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition tocontingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibitcontinuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usuallythought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however,support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs beforelife history events associated with effective altruism; reproductivesuicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu WestEberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuouslyexpressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpretedas probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, withoutbenefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive"suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter spacerelative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Gerontocracy, retirement, and social security

Why are the old politically successful? We build a simple interest group model in which political pressure is time-intensive, showing that in the political competitive equilibrium each group lobbies for government policies that lower their own value of time but the old do so to a greater extent and as a result are net gainers from the political process. What distinguishes the elderly from other political groups (and what makes them more succesful) is that they have lower labor productivity and/or that we are all likely to become elderly at some point, while we are relatively unlikely to change gender, race, sexual orientation, or even ocupation, The model has a variety of implications for the design of social security programs, which we test using data from the Social Security Administration. For example, the model predicts that social security programs with retirement incentives are larger and that the old are more "single-minded" in their politics, implications which we verify using cross-country government finance data and cross-country political participation surveys. Finally, we show that the forced savings programs intended to "reform" the social security system may increase the amount of intergenerational redistribution. As a model for evaluating policy reforms, ours has the attractive feature that reforms must be time time consistent from a political point of view rather than a public interest point of view.

Security analysts as frame-makers

In this paper we explore the mechanisms that allow securities analysts to value companies in contexts of Knightian uncertainty, that is, in the face of information that is unclear, subject to unforeseeable contingencies or to multiple interpretations. We address this question with a grounded-theory analysis of the reports written on Amazon.com by securities analyst Henry Blodget and rival analysts during the years 1998-2000. Our core finding is that analysts' reports are structured by internally consistent associations that includecategorizations, key metrics and analogies. We refer to these representations as calculative frames, and propose that analysts function as frame-makers - that is, asspecialized intermediaries that help investors value uncertain stocks. We conclude by considering the implications of frame-making for the rise of new industry categories, analysts' accuracy, and the regulatory debate on analysts'independence.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergooing heart surgery.

Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

Queen-worker conflict over sex ratio: a comparison of primary and secondary sex ratios in the Argentine ant,

We compare the primary sex ratio (proportion o haploid eggs laid by queens) and the secondary sex ratio (proportion of male pupae produced) in the Argentine ant Iridomyrmex humilis with the aim of investigating whether workers control the secondary sex ratio by selectively eliminating male brood. The proportion of haploid eggs produced by queens was close to 0.5 in late winter, decreased to less than 0.3 in spring and summer, and increased again to a value close to 0.5 in fall. Laboratory experiments indicate that temperture is a proximate factor influencing the primary sex ratio with a higher proportion of haploid eggs being laid at colder temperatures. Production of queen pupae ceased in mid-June, about three weeks before that of male pupae. After this time only worker pupae were produced. During the period of production of sexuals, the proportion of male pupae ranged from 0.30 to 0.38. Outside this period no males were reared although haploid eggs were produced all the year round by queens. Workers thus exert a control on the secondary sex ratio by eliminating a proportion of the male brood during the period of sexual production and eliminating all the males during the remainder of the cycle. These data are consistent with workers preferring a more female-biased sex ratio than queens. The evolutionary significance of the production of male eggs by queens all the year round is as yet unclear. It may be a mechanism allowing queen replacement in the case of the death of the queens in the colony.

Vertebral microarchitecture and fragility fracture in men: a TBS study.

INTRODUCTION: Although osteoporosis is considered a disease of women, 25% of the individuals with osteoporosis are men. BMD measurement by DXA is the gold standard used to diagnose osteoporosis and assess fracture risk. Nevertheless, BMD does not take into account alterations of microarchitecture. TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture extracted from the spine DXA. Previous studies have reported the ability of the spine TBS to predict osteoporotic fractures in women. This is the first case-controlled study in men to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS as a complement to bone mineral density (BMD), by comparing men with and without fractures. METHODS: To be eligible for this study, subjects had to be non-Hispanic US white men aged 40 and older. Furthermore, subjects were excluded if they have or have had previously any treatment or illness that may influence bone metabolism. Fractured subjects were included if the presence of at least one fracture was confirmed. Cases were matched for age (±3 years) and BMD (±0.04 g/cm(2)) with three controls. BMD and TBS were first retrospectively evaluated at AP spine (L1-L4) with a Prodigy densitometer (GE-Lunar, Madison, USA) and TBS iNsight® (Med-Imaps, France) in Lausanne University Hospital blinded from clinical outcome. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests or Wilcoxon signed rank tests. Odds ratios were calculated per one standard deviation decrease as well as areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: After applying inclusion/exclusion criteria, a group of 180 male subjects was obtained. This group consists of 45 fractured subjects (age=63.3±12.6 years, BMI=27.1±4.2 kg/m(2)) and 135 control subjects (age=62.9±11.9 years, BMI=26.7±3.9 kg/m(2)) matched for age (p=0.86) and BMD (p=0.20). A weak correlation was obtained between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r=0.27 and r=-0.28, respectively, p<0.01). Subjects with fracture have a significant lower TBS compared to control subjects (p=0.013), whereas no differences were obtained for BMI, height and weight (p>0.10). TBS OR per standard deviation is 1.55 [1.09-2.20] for all fracture type. When considering vertebral fracture only TBS OR reached 2.07 [1.14-3.74]. CONCLUSION: This study showed the potential use of TBS in men. TBS revealed a significant difference between fractured and age- and spine BMD-matched nonfractured subjects. These results are consistent with those previously reported on for men of other nationalities.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR+PR+SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

Transportation choices and the value of statistical life

This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to estimate the value of a statistical life(VSL). We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk andcost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone (which is separated fromthe capital Freetown by a body of water). Travelers choose from among multiple transportoptions ? namely, ferry, helicopter, hovercraft, and water taxi. The setting and original datasetallow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns in order to generate some of the firstrevealed preference VSL estimates from Africa. The data also allows us to compare VSLestimates for travelers from 56 countries, including 20 African and 36 non-African countries, allfacing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample isUS$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans. Individual characteristics, particularlyjob earnings, can largely account for the difference between Africans and non-Africans; Africansin the sample typically earn somewhat less. There is little evidence that individual VSL estimatesare driven by a lack of information, predicted life expectancy, or cultural norms around risktakingor fatalism. The data implies an income elasticity of the VSL of 1.77. These revealedpreference VSL estimates from a developing country fill an important gap in the existingliterature, and can be used for a variety of public policy purposes, including in current debateswithin Sierra Leone regarding the desirability of constructing new transportation infrastructure.

No consistent association between processes-of-care and health-related quality of life among patients with diabetes : a missing link?

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is considered a representative outcome in the evaluation of chronic disease management initiatives emphasizing patient-centered care. We evaluated the association between receipt of processes-of-care (PoC) for diabetes and HRQoL. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used self-reported data from non-institutionalized adults with diabetes in a Swiss canton. Outcomes were the physical/mental composites of the short form health survey 12 (SF-12) physical composite score, mental composite score (PCS, MCS) and the Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life (ADDQoL). Main exposure variables were receipt of six PoC for diabetes in the past 12 months, and the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) score. We performed linear regressions to examine the association between PoC, PACIC and the three composites of HRQoL. RESULTS: Mean age of the 519 patients was 64.5 years (SD 11.3); 60% were male, 87% reported type 2 or undetermined diabetes and 48% had diabetes for over 10 years. Mean HRQoL scores were SF-12 PCS: 43.4 (SD 10.5), SF-12 MCS: 47.0 (SD 11.2) and ADDQoL: -1.6 (SD 1.6). In adjusted models including all six PoC simultaneously, receipt of influenza vaccine was associated with lower ADDQoL (β=-0.4, p≤0.01) and foot examination was negatively associated with SF-12 PCS (β=-1.8, p≤0.05). There was no association or trend towards a negative association when these PoC were reported as combined measures. PACIC score was associated only with the SF-12 MCS (β=1.6, p≤0.05). CONCLUSIONS: PoC for diabetes did not show a consistent association with HRQoL in a cross-sectional analysis. This may represent an effect lag time between time of process received and health-related quality of life. Further research is needed to study this complex phenomenon.