Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

When to carry eccentric products? Optimal retail assortment under consumer returns

To understand whether retailers should consider consumer returns when merchandising, we study howthe optimal assortment of a price-taking retailer is influenced by its return policy. The retailer selects itsassortment from an exogenous set of horizontally differentiated products. Consumers make purchase andkeep/return decisions in nested multinomial logit fashion. Our main finding is that the optimal assortmenthas a counterintuitive structure for relatively strict return policies: It is optimal to offer a mix of the mostpopular and most eccentric products when the refund amount is sufficiently low, which can be viewed asa form of risk sharing between the retailer and consumers. In contrast, if the refund is sufficiently high, orwhen returns are disallowed, optimal assortment is composed of only the most popular products (a commonfinding in the literature). We provide preliminary empirical evidence for one of the key drivers of our results:more eccentric products have higher probability of return conditional on purchase. In light of our analyticalfindings and managerial insights, we conclude that retailers should take their return policies into accountwhen merchandising.

Analysis of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells by defined MHC-peptide complexes

MHC class II-peptide multimers are important tools for the detection, enumeration and isolation of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cells. However, their erratic and often poor performance impeded their broad application and thus in-depth analysis of key aspects of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cell responses. In the first part of this thesis we demonstrate that a major cause for poor MHC class II tetramer staining performance is incomplete peptide loading on MHC molecules. We observed that peptide binding affinity for "empty" MHC class II molecules poorly correlates with peptide loading efficacy. Addition of a His-tag or desthiobiotin (DTB) at the peptide N-terminus allowed us to isolate "immunopure" MHC class II-peptide monomers by affinity chromatography; this significantly, often dramatically, improved tetramer staining of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cells. Insertion of a photosensitive amino acid between the tag and the peptide, permitted removal of the tag from "immunopure" MHC class II-peptide complex by UV irradiation, and hence elimination of its potential interference with TCR and/or MHC binding. Moreover, to improve loading of self and tumor antigen- derived peptides onto "empty" MHC II molecules, we first loaded these with a photocleavable variant of the influenza A hemagglutinin peptide HA306-318 and subsequently exchanged it with a poorly loading peptide (e.g. NY-ESO-1119-143) upon photolysis of the conditional ligand. Finally, we established a novel type of MHC class II multimers built on reversible chelate formation between 2xHis-tagged MHC molecules and a fluorescent nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA)-containing scaffold. Staining of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cells with "NTAmers" is fully reversible and allows gentle cell sorting. In the second part of the thesis we investigated the role of the CD8α transmembrane domain (TMD) for CD8 coreceptor function. The sequence of the CD8α TMD, but not the CD8β TMD, is highly conserved and homodimerizes efficiently. We replaced the CD8α TMD with the one of the interleukin-2 receptor a chain (CD8αTac) and thus ablated CD8α TMD interactions. We observed that ΤΙ Τ cell hybridomas expressing CD8αTacβ exhibited severely impaired intracellular calcium flux, IL-2 responses and Kd/PbCS(ABA) P255A tetramer binding. By means of fluorescence resonance energy transfer experiments (FRET) we established that CD8αTacβ associated with TCR:CD3 considerably less efficiently than CD8αβ, both in the presence and the absence of Kd/PbCS(ABA) complexes. Moreover, we observed that CD8αTacβ partitioned substantially less in lipid rafts, and related to this, associated less efficiently with p56Lck (Lck), a Src kinase that plays key roles in TCR proximal signaling. Our results support the view that the CD8α TMD promotes the formation of CD8αβP-CD8αβ dimers on cell surfaces. Because these contain two CD8β chains and that CD8β, unlike CD8α, mediates association of CD8 with TCR:CD3 as well as with lipid rafts and hence with Lck, we propose that the CD8αTMD plays an important and hitherto unrecognized role for CD8 coreceptor function, namely by promoting CD8αβ dimer formation. We discuss what implications this might have on TCR oligomerization and TCR signaling. - Les multimères de complexes MHC classe II-peptide sont des outils importants pour la détection, le dénombrement et l'isolation des cellules Τ CD4+ spécifiques pour un antigène d'intérêt. Cependant, leur performance erratique et souvent inadéquate a empêché leur utilisation généralisée, limitant ainsi l'analyse des aspects clés des réponses des lymphocytes Τ CD4+. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous montrons que la cause principale de la faible efficacité des multimères de complexes MHC classe II-peptide est le chargement incomplet des molécules MHC par des peptides. Nous montrons également que l'affinité du peptide pour la molécule MHC classe II "vide" n'est pas nécessairement liée au degré du chargement. Grâce à l'introduction d'une étiquette d'histidines (His-tag) ou d'une molécule de desthiobiotine à l'extrémité N-terminale du peptide, des monomères MHC classe II- peptide dits "immunopures" ont pu être isolés par chromatographic d'affinité. Ceci a permis d'améliorer significativement et souvent de façon spectaculaire, le marquage des cellules Τ CD4+ spécifiques pour un antigène d'intérêt. L'insertion d'un acide aminé photosensible entre l'étiquette et le peptide a permis la suppression de l'étiquette du complexe MHC classe- Il peptide "immunopure" par irradiation aux UV, éliminant ainsi de potentielles interférences de liaison au TCR et/ou au MHC. De plus, afin d'améliorer le chargement des molécules MHC classe II "vides" avec des peptides dérivés d'auto-antigènes ou d'antigènes tumoraux, nous avons tout d'abord chargé les molécules MHC "vides" avec un analogue peptidique photoclivable issu du peptide HA306-318 de l'hémagglutinine de la grippe de type A, puis, sous condition de photolyse, nous l'avons échangé avec de peptides à chargement faible (p.ex. NY-ESO-1119-143). Finalement, nous avons construit un nouveau type de multimère réversible, appelé "NTAmère", basé sur la formation chélatante reversible entre les molécules MHC-peptide étiquettés par 2xHis et un support fluorescent contenant des acides nitrilotriacetiques (NTA). Le marquage des cellules Τ CD4+ spécifiques pour un antigène d'intérêt avec les "NTAmères" est pleinement réversible et permet également un tri cellulaire plus doux. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse nous avons étudié le rôle du domaine transmembranaire (TMD) du CD8α pour la fonction coréceptrice du CD8. La séquence du TMD du CD8α, mais pas celle du TMD du CD8β, est hautement conservée et permet une homodimérisation efficace. Nous avons remplacé le TMD du CD8α avec celui de la chaîne α du récepteur à l'IL-2 (CD8αTac), éliminant ainsi les interactions du TMD du CD8α. Nous avons montré que les cellules des hybridomes Τ T1 exprimant le CD8αTacβ présentaient une atteinte sévère du flux du calcium intracellulaire, des réponses d'IL-2 et de la liaison des tétramères Kd/PbCS(ABA) P255A. Grâce aux expériences de transfert d'énergie entre molécules fluorescentes (FRET), nous avons montré que l'association du CD8αTacβ avec le TCR:CD3 est considérablement moins efficace qu'avec le CD8αβ, et ceci aussi bien en présence qu'en absence de complexes Kd/PbCS(ABA). De plus, nous avons observé que le CD8αTacβ se distribuait beaucoup moins bien dans les radeaux lipidiques, engendrant ainsi, une association moins efficace avec p56Lck (Lck), une kinase de la famille Src qui joue un rôle clé dans la signalisation proximale du TCR. Nos résultats soutiennent l'hypothèse que le TMD du CD8αβ favorise la formation des dimères de CD8αβ à la surface des cellules. Parce que ces derniers contiennent deux chaînes CD8β et que CD8β, contrairement à CD8α, favorise l'association du CD8 au TCR:CD3 aussi bien qu'aux radeaux lipidiques et par conséquent à Lck, nous proposons que le TMD du CD8α joue un rôle important, jusqu'alors inconnu, pour la fonction coreceptrice du CD8, en encourageant la formation des dimères CD8αβ. Nous discutons des implications possibles sur l'oligomerisation du TCR et la signalisation du TCR.

Option pricing under stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate in the Spanish case

Among the underlying assumptions of the Black-Scholes option pricingmodel, those of a fixed volatility of the underlying asset and of aconstantshort-term riskless interest rate, cause the largest empirical biases. Onlyrecently has attention been paid to the simultaneous effects of thestochasticnature of both variables on the pricing of options. This paper has tried toestimate the effects of a stochastic volatility and a stochastic interestrate inthe Spanish option market. A discrete approach was used. Symmetricand asymmetricGARCH models were tried. The presence of in-the-mean and seasonalityeffectswas allowed. The stochastic processes of the MIBOR90, a Spanishshort-terminterest rate, from March 19, 1990 to May 31, 1994 and of the volatilityofthe returns of the most important Spanish stock index (IBEX-35) fromOctober1, 1987 to January 20, 1994, were estimated. These estimators wereused onpricing Call options on the stock index, from November 30, 1993 to May30, 1994.Hull-White and Amin-Ng pricing formulas were used. These prices werecomparedwith actual prices and with those derived from the Black-Scholesformula,trying to detect the biases reported previously in the literature. Whereasthe conditional variance of the MIBOR90 interest rate seemed to be freeofARCH effects, an asymmetric GARCH with in-the-mean and seasonalityeffectsand some evidence of persistence in variance (IEGARCH(1,2)-M-S) wasfoundto be the model that best represent the behavior of the stochasticvolatilityof the IBEX-35 stock returns. All the biases reported previously in theliterature were found. All the formulas overpriced the options inNear-the-Moneycase and underpriced the options otherwise. Furthermore, in most optiontrading, Black-Scholes overpriced the options and, because of thetime-to-maturityeffect, implied volatility computed from the Black-Scholes formula,underestimatedthe actual volatility.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Comparison of Energy Minimization Methods for 3-D Brain Tissue Classification

This paper presents 3-D brain tissue classificationschemes using three recent promising energy minimizationmethods for Markov random fields: graph cuts, loopybelief propagation and tree-reweighted message passing.The classification is performed using the well knownfinite Gaussian mixture Markov Random Field model.Results from the above methods are compared with widelyused iterative conditional modes algorithm. Theevaluation is performed on a dataset containing simulatedT1-weighted MR brain volumes with varying noise andintensity non-uniformities. The comparisons are performedin terms of energies as well as based on ground truthsegmentations, using various quantitative metrics.

Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

Robust response transformations based on optimal prediction

Nonlinear regression problems can often be reduced to linearity by transforming the response variable (e.g., using the Box-Cox family of transformations). The classic estimates of the parameter defining the transformation as well as of the regression coefficients are based on the maximum likelihood criterion, assuming homoscedastic normal errors for the transformed response. These estimates are nonrobust in the presence of outliers and can be inconsistent when the errors are nonnormal or heteroscedastic. This article proposes new robust estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal for any unimodal and homoscedastic error distribution. For this purpose, a robust version of conditional expectation is introduced for which the prediction mean squared error is replaced with an M scale. This concept is then used to develop a nonparametric criterion to estimate the transformation parameter as well as the regression coefficients. A finite sample estimate of this criterion based on a robust version of smearing is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the new estimates compare favorably with respect to the available competitors.

Prime property institutions for a subprime era: Toward innovative models of homeownership

This Article breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and other types of public financing schemes, we suggest extending institutional and financial strategies such as time- and place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Two new solutions offer a broad theoretical basis for such developments in the economic and legal institution of homeownership: a for-profit shared equity scheme led by local governments alongside a private market shared equity model, one of "bootstrapping home buying with purchase options".

Social security and democracy

Many political economic theories use and emphasize the process of votingin their explanation of the growth of Social Security, governmentspending, and other public policies. But is there an empirical connectionbetween democracy and Social Security program size or design? Using somenew international data sets to produce both country-panel econometricestimates as well as case studies of South American and southern Europeancountries, we find that Social Security policy varies according toeconomic and demographic factors, but that very different politicalhistories can result in the same Social Security policy. We find littlepartial effect of democracy on the size of Social Security budgets, onhow those budgets are allocated, or how economic and demographic factorsaffect Social Security. If there is any observed difference, democraciesspend a little less of their GDP on Social Security, grow their budgetsa bit more slowly, and cap their payroll tax more often, than doeconomically and demographically similar nondemocracies. Democracies andnondemocracies are equally likely to have benefit formulas inducingretirement and, conditional on GDP per capita, equally likely to induceretirement with a retirement test vs. an earnings test.

Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does thepresentation of results affect economists ability to make inferences for decision makingpurposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilisticinferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standardformat. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional onknown values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimateduncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimatedresiduals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the otherhand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents weresubstantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reportingresults of regression analyses.

Understanding portfolio efficiency with conditioning information

We show that unconditionally efficient returns do not achieve the maximum unconditionalSharpe ratio, neither display zero unconditional Jensen s alphas, when returns arepredictable. Next, we define a new type of efficient returns that is characterized by thoseunconditional properties. We also study a different type of efficient returns that is rationalizedby standard mean-variance preferences and motivates new Sharpe ratios and Jensen salphas. We revisit the testable implications of asset pricing models from the perspective ofthe three sets of efficient returns. We also revisit the empirical evidence on the conditionalvariants of the CAPM and the Fama-French model from a portfolio perspective.

Association of different lipid measures for atherogenic lipid fractions and risk of coronary events in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

Voting with preferences over margins of victory

This paper analyzes a two-alternative voting model with the distinctive feature that voters have preferences over margins of victory. We study voting contests with a finite as well as an infinite number of voters, and with and without mandatory voting. The main result of the paper is the existence and characterization of a unique equilibrium outcome in all those situations. At equilibrium, voters who prefer a larger support for one of the alternatives vote for such alternative.The model also provides a formal argument for the conditional sincerity voting condition in Alesina and Rosenthal (1995) and the benefit of voting function in Llavador (2006). Finally, we offer new insights on explaining why some citizens may vote strategically for an alternative different from the one declared as the most preferred.

Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.