A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest - tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest - tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest - tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic. uctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation -. re - climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA ( AD 1500 - 1800), whereas shrubs ( Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in. re importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic ( e. g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland ( Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level. uctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1 - 2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.

[A mortality databank for international comparison and background information]

This article describes the structure and utilization of a computerized databank system for WHO mortality data. This system makes available "at finger-tips" data which previously were published by WHO in its blue volumes. The data can be handled much more flexible. At the moment the system provides information on age-standardized rates (direct standardization), total number of cases, as well as cover per age-group and year for about a hundred countries. The time period covered is 1950-1985, with exceptions for data which are not available to WHO.

Novel genetic risk markers for ulcerative colitis in the IL2/IL21 region are in epistasis with IL23R and suggest a common genetic background for ulcerative colitis and celiac disease

OBJECTIVES: Recently, a genome-wide association study showed that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the chromosome 4q27 region containing IL2 and IL21 are associated with celiac disease. Given the increased prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among celiac disease patients, we investigated the possible involvement of these SNPs in IBD. METHODS: Five SNPs strongly associated with celiac disease within the KIAA1109/TENR/IL2/IL21 linkage disequilibrium block on chromosome 4q27 and one coding SNP within the IL21 gene were analyzed in a large German IBD cohort. The study population comprised a total of 2,948 Caucasian individuals, including 1,461 IBD patients (ulcerative colitis (UC): n=514, Crohn's disease (CD): n=947) and 1,487 healthy unrelated controls. RESULTS: Three of the five celiac disease risk markers had a protective effect on UC susceptibility, and this effect remained significant after correcting for multiple testing: rs6840978: P=0.0082, P(corr)=0.049, odds ratio (OR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.93; rs6822844: P=0.0028, P(corr)=0.017, OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.90; rs13119723: P=0.0058, P(corr)=0.035, OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61-0.92. A haplotype consisting of the six SNPs tested was markedly associated with UC susceptibility (P=0.0025, P(corr)=0.015, OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58-0.89). Moreover, in UC, epistasis was observed between the IL23R SNP rs1004819 and three SNPs in the KIAA1109/TENR/IL2/IL21 block (rs13151961, rs13119723, and rs6822844). CONCLUSIONS: Similar to other autoimmune diseases such as celiac disease, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, Graves' disease, and psoriatic arthritis, genetic variation in the chromosome 4q27 region predisposes to UC, suggesting a common genetic background for these diseases.

Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann–Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715–1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance.