Estimating and Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates:US and Colombia Analysis

In this paper we use the most representative models that exist in the literature on term structure of interest rates. In particular, we explore affine one factor models and polynomial-type approximations such as Nelson and Siegel. Our empirical application considers monthly data of USA and Colombia for estimation and forecasting. We find that affine models do not provide adequate performance either in-sample or out-of-sample. On the contrary, parsimonious models such as Nelson and Siegel have adequate results in-sample, however out-of-sample they are not able to systematically improve upon random walk base forecast.

Robustness on resource allocation problems

En problemes d'assignació de recursos, normalment s'han de tenir en compte les incerteses que poden provocar canvis en les dades inicials. Aquests canvis dificulten l'aplicabilitat de les planificacions que s'hagin fet inicialment. Aquesta tesi se centra en l'elaboració de tècniques que consideren la incertesa alhora de cercar solucions robustes, és a dir solucions que puguin continuar essent vàlides encara que hi hagi canvis en l'entorn. Particularment, introduïm el concepte de robustesa basat en reparabilitat, on una solució robusta és una que pot ser reparada fàcilment en cas que hi hagi incidències. La nostra aproximació es basa en lògica proposicional, codificant el problema en una fórmula de satisfactibilitat Booleana, i aplicant tècniques de reformulació per a la generació de solucions robustes. També presentem un mecanisme per a incorporar flexibilitat a les solucions robustes, de manera que es pugui establir fàcilment el grau desitjat entre robustesa i optimalitat de les solucions.

Reducció de vibracions residuals en moviments transitoris. Definició de lleis de moviment per mitjà de corbes B-spline

Molts sistemes mecànics existents tenen un comportament vibratori funcionalment perceptible, que es posa de manifest enfront d'excitacions transitòries. Normalment, les vibracions generades segueixen presents després del transitori (vibracions residuals), i poden provocar efectes negatius en la funció de disseny del mecanisme. El mètode que es proposa en aquesta tesi té com a objectiu principal la síntesi de lleis de moviment per reduir les vibracions residuals. Addicionalment, els senyals generats permeten complir dues condicions definides per l'usuari (anomenats requeriments funcionals). El mètode es fonamenta en la relació existent entre el contingut freqüencial d'un senyal transitori, i la vibració residual generada, segons sigui l'esmorteïment del sistema. Basat en aquesta relació, i aprofitant les propietats de la transformada de Fourier, es proposa la generació de lleis de moviment per convolució temporal de polsos. Aquestes resulten formades per trams concatenats de polinomis algebraics, cosa que facilita la seva implementació en entorns numèrics per mitjà de corbes B-spline.

Num novo paradigma para o Desenvolvimento Humano : «Comunicação e Cultura Inclusivas»

A «comunicação e a cultura inclusivas» constituem o móbil de um amplo desenvolvimento biopsicossocial e humano, numa dimensão de igualdade de circunstâncias e de oportunidades para todos, com lugar e qualidade de vida para todos, independentemente de dificuldades como, por exemplo, sensoriocognitivas, sociocognitivas, sociocomunicacionais, intelectuais, psíquicas, patologias neurogénicas da comunicação. Trata-se de uma «viagem» concisa, «passeando» num paradigma novo para o desenvolvimento humano, o da «educomunicção inclusiva», uma aglutinação conceptual consubstanciada no polinómio «educação+comunicação/TIC+cultura+pedagogia», que é o caminhar livre e seguro, digno e socializante, numa perspetiva ecoevolutiva humana profícua e eticizante da vida.

A visibilidade das universidades portuguesas na web : estudo webométrico

Esta dissertação resulta de uma investigação que levou a cabo um estudo webométrico sobre a presença das universidades portuguesas na Web, avaliando a visibilidade das instituições através do cálculo de um indicador webométrico, o Web Impact Factor. A World Wide Web é, na atualidade, um dos principais meios de difusão de Informação. Os Estudos Métricos da Informação visam quantificar e avaliar a produção de Informação, objeto de estudo de disciplinas como a Infometria, a Cienciometria e a Bibliometria. Recentemente, surgiram a Cibermetria e a Webometria como novas disciplinas que estudam a produção e difusão da Informação no contexto do Ciberespaço e da World Wide Web, respetivamente. As universidades, enquanto polos privilegiados de produção e difusão de conhecimento, são o objeto de estudo natural da Webometria e a avaliação da sua presença na World Wide Web contribui para a análise do desempenho destas instituições. Para a realização deste trabalho foi adotada a metodologia proposta por Noruzi, que calcula três categorias de Web Impact Factor: o WIF Total, o WIF Revisto e o Selflink WIF. De modo a calcular estas categorias, foram recolhidos dados quantitativos de inlinks, selflinks, número total de páginas e número de páginas indexadas pelo motor de pesquisa. O motor de pesquisa utilizado foi o Altavista, tendo sido realizadas pesquisas de expressões booleanas durante o primeiro semestre de 2009. Após a recolha, os dados foram tratados estatisticamente e procedeu-se ao cálculo das categorias do WIF. Conclui-se que existe uma maior visibilidade das universidades públicas portuguesas porque obtêm melhores resultados ao nível de duas categorias do Web Impact Factor: o WIF Revisto e o Selflink WIF.

A collocation method for high frequency scattering by convex polygons

We consider the problem of scattering of a time-harmonic acoustic incident plane wave by a sound soft convex polygon. For standard boundary or finite element methods, with a piecewise polynomial approximation space, the computational cost required to achieve a prescribed level of accuracy grows linearly with respect to the frequency of the incident wave. Recently Chandler–Wilde and Langdon proposed a novel Galerkin boundary element method for this problem for which, by incorporating the products of plane wave basis functions with piecewise polynomials supported on a graded mesh into the approximation space, they were able to demonstrate that the number of degrees of freedom required to achieve a prescribed level of accuracy grows only logarithmically with respect to the frequency. Here we propose a related collocation method, using the same approximation space, for which we demonstrate via numerical experiments a convergence rate identical to that achieved with the Galerkin scheme, but with a substantially reduced computational cost.

A high-order arbitrarily unstructured finite-volume model of the global atmosphere: tests solving the shallow-water equations

Simulations of the global atmosphere for weather and climate forecasting require fast and accurate solutions and so operational models use high-order finite differences on regular structured grids. This precludes the use of local refinement; techniques allowing local refinement are either expensive (eg. high-order finite element techniques) or have reduced accuracy at changes in resolution (eg. unstructured finite-volume with linear differencing). We present solutions of the shallow-water equations for westerly flow over a mid-latitude mountain from a finite-volume model written using OpenFOAM. A second/third-order accurate differencing scheme is applied on arbitrarily unstructured meshes made up of various shapes and refinement patterns. The results are as accurate as equivalent resolution spectral methods. Using lower order differencing reduces accuracy at a refinement pattern which allows errors from refinement of the mountain to accumulate and reduces the global accuracy over a 15 day simulation. We have therefore introduced a scheme which fits a 2D cubic polynomial approximately on a stencil around each cell. Using this scheme means that refinement of the mountain improves the accuracy after a 15 day simulation. This is a more severe test of local mesh refinement for global simulations than has been presented but a realistic test if these techniques are to be used operationally. These efficient, high-order schemes may make it possible for local mesh refinement to be used by weather and climate forecast models.

A numerical study of the probe method

The goal of this work is the numerical realization of the probe method suggested by Ikehata for the detection of an obstacle D in inverse scattering. The main idea of the method is to use probes in the form of point source (., z) with source point z to define an indicator function (I) over cap (z) which can be reconstructed from Cauchy data or far. eld data. The indicator function boolean AND (I) over cap (z) can be shown to blow off when the source point z tends to the boundary aD, and this behavior can be used to find D. To study the feasibility of the probe method we will use two equivalent formulations of the indicator function. We will carry out the numerical realization of the functional and show reconstructions of a sound-soft obstacle.

Approximate factorization constraint preconditioners for saddle-point matrices

We consider the application of the conjugate gradient method to the solution of large, symmetric indefinite linear systems. Special emphasis is put on the use of constraint preconditioners and a new factorization that can reduce the number of flops required by the preconditioning step. Results concerning the eigenvalues of the preconditioned matrix and its minimum polynomial are given. Numerical experiments validate these conclusions.

Acoustic scattering by mildly rough unbounded surfaces in three dimensions

For a nonlocally perturbed half- space we consider the scattering of time-harmonic acoustic waves. A second kind boundary integral equation formulation is proposed for the sound-soft case, based on a standard ansatz as a combined single-and double-layer potential but replacing the usual fundamental solution of the Helmholtz equation with an appropriate half- space Green's function. Due to the unboundedness of the surface, the integral operators are noncompact. In contrast to the two-dimensional case, the integral operators are also strongly singular, due to the slow decay at infinity of the fundamental solution of the three-dimensional Helmholtz equation. In the case when the surface is sufficiently smooth ( Lyapunov) we show that the integral operators are nevertheless bounded as operators on L-2(Gamma) and on L-2(Gamma G) boolean AND BC(Gamma) and that the operators depend continuously in norm on the wave number and on G. We further show that for mild roughness, i.e., a surface G which does not differ too much from a plane, the boundary integral equation is uniquely solvable in the space L-2(Gamma) boolean AND BC(Gamma) and the scattering problem has a unique solution which satisfies a limiting absorption principle in the case of real wave number.

Vibration–rotation variational calculations: precise results on HCN up to 25 000 cm−1

Variation calculations of the vibration–rotation energy levels of many isotopomers of HCN are reported, for J=0, 1, and 2, extending up to approximately 8 quanta of each of the stretching vibrations and 14 quanta of the bending mode. The force field, which is represented as a polynomial expansion in Morse coordinates for the bond stretches and even powers of the angle bend, has been refined by least squares to fit simultaneously all observed data on the Σ and Π state vibrational energies, and the Σ state rotational constants, for both HCN and DCN. The observed vibrational energies are fitted to roughly ±0.5 cm−1, and the rotational constants to roughly ±0.0001 cm−1. The force field has been used to predict the vibration rotation spectra of many isotopomers of HCN up to 25 000 cm−1. The results are consistent with the axis‐switching assignments of some weak overtone bands reported recently by Jonas, Yang, and Wodtke, and they also fit and provide the assignment for recent observations by Romanini and Lehmann of very weak absorption bands above 20 000 cm−1.

Variational calculations of rovibrational states: a precise high-energy potential surface for HCN [and discussion]

We report the results of variational calculations of the rovibrational energy levels of HCN for J = 0, 1 and 2, where we reproduce all the ca. 100 observed vibrational states for all observed isotopic species, with energies up to 18000 cm$^{-1}$, to about $\pm $1 cm$^{-1}$, and the corresponding rotational constants to about $\pm $0.001 cm$^{-1}$. We use a hamiltonian expressed in internal coordinates r$_{1}$, r$_{2}$ and $\theta $, using the exact expression for the kinetic energy operator T obtained by direct transformation from the cartesian representation. The potential energy V is expressed as a polynomial expansion in the Morse coordinates y$_{i}$ for the bond stretches and the interbond angle $\theta $. The basis functions are built as products of appropriately scaled Morse functions in the bond-stretches and Legendre or associated Legendre polynomials of cos $\theta $ in the angle bend, and we evaluate matrix elements by Gauss quadrature. The hamiltonian matripx is factorized using the full rovibrational symmetry, and the basis is contracted to an optimized form; the dimensions of the final hamiltonian matrix vary from 240 $\times $ 240 to 1000 $\times $ 1000.We believe that our calculation is converged to better than 1 cm$^{-1}$ at 18 000 cm$^{-1}$. Our potential surface is expressed in terms of 31 parameters, about half of which have been refined by least squares to optimize the fit to the experimental data. The advantages and disadvantages and the future potential of calculations of this type are discussed.

Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

Redox chemistry and electronic properties of 2,3,5,6-tetrakis(2-pyridyl)pyrazine-bridged diruthenium complexes controlled by N,C,N '-biscyclometalated ligands

To investigate the consequences of cyclometalation for electronic communication in dinuclear ruthenium complexes, a series of 2,3,5,6-tetrakis(2-pyridyl)pyrazine (tppz) bridged diruthenium complexes was prepared and studied. These complexes have a central tppz ligand bridging via nitrogen-to-ruthenium coordination bonds, while each ruthenium atom also binds either a monoanionic, N,C,N'-terdentate 2,6-bis(2'-pyridyl)phenyl (R-N boolean AND C boolean AND N) ligand or a 2,2':6',2 ''-terpyridine (tpy) ligand. The N,C,N'-, that is, biscyclometalation, instead of the latter N,N', N ''-bonding motif significantly changes the electronic properties of the resulting complexes. Starting from well-known [{Ru(tpy)}(2)(mu-tppz)](4+) (tpy = 2,2':2 '',6-terpyridine) ([3](4+)) as a model compound, the complexes [{Ru(R-N boolean AND C boolean AND N)}(mu-tppz){Ru(tpy)}](3+) (R-N boolean AND C(H)boolean AND N = 4-R-1,3-dipyridylbenzene, R = H ([4a](3+)), CO2Me ([4b](3+))), and [{Ru(R-N boolean AND C boolean AND N)}(2)(mu-tppz)](2+), (R = H ([5a](2+)), CO2Me ([5b](2+))) were prepared with one or two N,C,N'-cyclometalated terminal ligands. The oxidation and reduction potentials of cyclometalated [4](3+) and [5](2+) are shifted negatively compared to non-cyclometalated [3](4+), the oxidation processes being affected more significantly. Compared to [3](4+), the electronic spectra of [5](2+) display large bathochromic shifts of the main MLCT transitions in the visible spectral region with low-energy absorptions tailing down to the NIR region. One-electron oxidation of [3](4+) and [5](2+) gives rise to low-energy absorption bands. The comproportionation constants and NIR band shape correspond to delocalized Robin-Day class III compounds. Complexes [4a](3+) (R = H) and [4b](3+) (R = CO2Me) also exhibit strong electronic communication, and notwithstanding the large redox-asymmetry the visible metal-to-ligand charge-transfer absorption is assigned to originate from both metal centers. The potential of the first, ruthenium-based, reversible oxidation process is strongly negatively shifted. On the contrary, the second oxidation is irreversible and cyclometalated ligand-based. Upon one-electron oxidation, a weak and low-energy absorption arises.

Effect of storage temperature and media composition on the survivability of Bifidobacterium breve NCIMB 702257 in a malt hydrolisate

The aim of this study was to evaluate the survivability of Bifidobacterium breve NCIMB 702257 in a three malt-based media supplemented with cysteine and yeast extract, and to determine the protective effect of these growth factors. A number of parameterised mathematical models were used to predict of kinetics of viability and total acidity during storage at different temperatures. Results demonstrated a good fit to the experimental mathematical model. The Arrhenius equations showed only reasonable fits and the polynomial plots contained a large area without data between 4 and 25 degrees C. In addition, it was shown that cysteine promotes growth and acid production by bifidobacteria, but does not extend survivability. On the other hand, increasing the yeast extract content of the fermentation media enhances the survivability of B. breve. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address the modelling of the survivability of probiotic bacteria in a cereal based fermentation media at different temperatures, introducing a more quantitative approach to the study of the shelf-life of a probiotic product. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.