How the European Union does not work: national bargaining success in the Council of Ministers

We know surprisingly little about whether the content of European Union legislation reflects the preferences of some Member States more than others. The few studies that have examined national bargaining success rates for EU legislation have conceptual and methodological weaknesses. To redress these problems I use a salience-weighted measure to gauge the relative success of Member States in translating their national preferences into legislation, and test two plausible, competing hypotheses about how the EU works: that no state consistently achieves more of what it really wants than any other, and that large Member States tend to beat small ones. Neither hypothesis receives empirical support. Not only do states differ far more significantly in their respective levels of bargaining success than previously recognised, but some of the smaller states are the ones that do especially well. The paper‟s main contribution -- demonstrating that the EU does not work as most people think it does -- sets the stage for new research questions, both positive and normative. In the last section I make a tentative start answering two of the most important: which factors explain the surprising empirical results, and whether differential national bargaining success might undermine the legitimacy of the integration process.

RACORO extended-term, aircraft observations of boundary-layer clouds

A first-of-a-kind, extended-term cloud aircraft campaign was conducted to obtain an in-situ statistical characterization of continental boundary-layer clouds needed to investigate cloud processes and refine retrieval algorithms. Coordinated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), the Routine AAF Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign operated over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 22 January to 30 June 2009, collecting 260 h of data during 59 research flights. A comprehensive payload aboard the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft measured cloud microphysics, solar and thermal radiation, physical aerosol properties, and atmospheric state parameters. Proximity to the SGP's extensive complement of surface measurements provides ancillary data that supports modeling studies and facilitates evaluation of a variety of surface retrieval algorithms. The five-month duration enabled sampling a range of conditions associated with the seasonal transition from winter to summer. Although about two-thirds of the cloud flights occurred in May and June, boundary-layer cloud fields were sampled under a variety of environmental and aerosol conditions, with about 77% of the flights occurring in cumulus and stratocumulus. Preliminary analyses illustrate use of these data to analyze cloud-aerosol relationships, characterize the horizontal variability of cloud radiative impacts, and evaluate surface-based retrievals. We discuss how an extended-term campaign requires a simplified operating paradigm that is different from that used for typical, short-term, intensive aircraft field programs.

Integrating nitrogen fluxes at the European scale

Executive summary Nature of the problem • Environmental problems related to nitrogen concern all economic sectors and impact all media: atmosphere, pedosphere, hydrosphere and anthroposphere. • Therefore, the integration of fluxes allows an overall coverage of problems related to reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the environment, which is not accessible from sectoral approaches or by focusing on specific media. Approaches • This chapter presents a set of high resolution maps showing key elements of the N flux budget across Europe, including N2 and Nr fluxes. • Comparative nitrogen budgets are also presented for a range of European countries, highlighting the most efficient strategies for mitigating Nr problems at a national scale. A new European Nitrogen Budget (EU-27) is presented on the basis of state-of-the-art Europe-wide models and databases focusing on different segments of Europe’s society. Key findings • From c. 18 Tg Nr yr −1 input to agriculture in the EU-27, only about 7 Tg Nr yr− 1 find their way to the consumer or are further processed by industry. • Some 3.7 Tg Nr yr−1 is released by the burning of fossil fuels in the EU-27, whereby the contribution of the industry and energy sectors is equal to that of the transport sector. More than 8 Tg Nr yr−1 are disposed of to the hydrosphere, while the EU-27 is a net exporter of reactive nitrogen through atmospheric transport of c. 2.3 Tg Nr yr−1. • The largest single sink for Nr appears to be denitrifi cation to N2 in European coastal shelf regions (potentially as large as the input of mineral fertilizer, about 11 Tg N yr–1 for the EU-27); however, this sink is also the most uncertain, because of the uncertainty of Nr import from the open ocean. Major uncertainties • National nitrogen budgets are diffi cult to compile using a large range of data sources and are currently available only for a limited number of countries. • Modelling approaches have been used to fill in the data gaps in some of these budgets, but it became obvious during this study that further research is needed in order to collect necessary data and make national nitrogen budgets inter-comparable across Europe. • In some countries, due to inconsistent or contradictory information coming from different data sources, closure of the nitrogen budget was not possible. Recommendations • The large variety of problems associated with the excess of Nr in the European environment,including adverse impacts, requires an integrated nitrogen management approach that would allow for creation and closure of N budgets within European environments. • Development of nitrogen budgets nationwide, their assessment and management could become an effective tool to prioritize measures and prevent unwanted side effects.

Speech-like and non-speech lip kinematics and coordination in aphasia

Background and aims: In addition to the well-known linguistic processing impairments in aphasia, oro-motor skills and articulatory implementation of speech segments are reported to be compromised to some degree in most types of aphasia. This study aimed to identify differences in the characteristics and coordination of lip movements in the production of a bilabial closure gesture between speech-like and nonspeech tasks in individuals with aphasia and healthy control subjects. Method and procedure: Upper and lower lip movement data were collected for a speech-like and a nonspeech task using an AG 100 EMMA system from five individuals with aphasia and five age and gender matched control subjects. Each task was produced at two rate conditions (normal and fast), and in a familiar and a less-familiar manner. Single articulator kinematic parameters (peak velocity, amplitude, duration, and cyclic spatio-temporal index) and multi-articulator coordination indices (average relative phase and variability of relative phase) were measured to characterize lip movements. Outcome and results: The results showed that when the two lips had similar task goals (bilabial closure) in speech-like versus nonspeech task, kinematic and coordination characteristics were not found to be different. However, when changes in rate were imposed on the bilabial gesture, only speech-like task showed functional adaptations, indicated by a greater decrease in amplitude and duration at fast rates. In terms of group differences, individuals with aphasia showed smaller amplitudes and longer movement durations for upper lip, higher spatio-temporal variability for both lips, and higher variability in lip coordination than the control speakers. Rate was an important factor in distinguishing the two groups, and individuals with aphasia were limited in implementing the rate changes. Conclusion and implications: The findings support the notion of subtle but robust differences in motor control characteristics between individuals with aphasia and the control participants, even in the context of producing bilabial closing gestures for a relatively simple speech-like task. The findings also highlight the functional differences between speech-like and nonspeech tasks, despite a common movement coordination goal for bilabial closure.

A utopia no Cinema Brasileiro: matrizes, nostalgia, distopias

This book studies the ressurgence of the utopian gesture in Brazilian Cinema from the mid-1990s onwards, as well as its variations and negations. The analysis identifies trajectories of rise and fall, which reflect oscillations in the political scenario, and includes a retrospective look at utopian traditions of the Brazilian cinematic past, in turn derived from the nation's foundational myths. At the same time, it considers the ways in which recent Brazilian film production transcends Cinema Novo's national project to interacts with modern, postmodern and commercial cinemas of the world, thus benefiting from and contributing to a new transnational cinematic aesthetics.

The coevolution of two phytoplankton species on a single resource: allelopathy as a pseudo-mixotrophy

Without the top-down effects and the external/physical forcing, a stable coexistence of two phytoplankton species under a single resource is impossible — a result well known from the principle of competitive exclusion. Here I demonstrate by analysis of a mathematical model that such a stable coexistence in a homogeneous media without any external factor would be possible, at least theoretically, provided (i) one of the two species is toxin producing thereby has an allelopathic effect on the other, and (ii) the allelopathic effect exceeds a critical level. The threshold level of allelopathy required for the coexistence has been derived analytically in terms of the parameters associated with the resource competition and the nutrient recycling. That the extra mortality of a competitor driven by allelopathy of a toxic species gives a positive feed back to the algal growth process through the recycling is explained. And that this positive feed back plays a pivotal role in reducing competition pressures and helping species succession in the two-species model is demonstrated. Based on these specific coexistence results, I introduce and explain theoretically the allelopathic effect of a toxic species as a ‘pseudo-mixotrophy’—a mechanism of ‘if you cannot beat them or eat them, just kill them by chemical weapons’. The impact of this mechanism of species succession by pseudo-mixotrophy in the form of alleopathy is discussed in the context of current understanding on straight mixotrophy and resource-species relationship among phytoplankton species.

Acts of estrangement: reading the psoriatic-skin

I am continually surprised by the acts of estrangement in which my body engages. All bodies do this to some extent – lungs breathe, hearts beat and so on, but with psoriasis, which my article is concerned with, these processes are highly visible. As a condition of the skin, it is a pathology which is enacted both within and without, visible to the social world as well emerging from some little understood inflammatory source within the body. This article will undertake a phenomenological exploration of my own skin and how my experience of my body is affected by its lack of compliance with medicine, cosmetics etc. By some unknown causation it flakes, breaks, itches constantly drawing attention to bodily limits and the limits of medical knowledge. I want to think through the meanings we ascribe to such inflammatory conditions in Western society, how my skin materialises at the nexus of industrialisation, medicine, class and capital. This investigation will emerge at the limit point, the thin skin between the subjective and objective, observing and theorising my skin in ways which dissolve disciplinary boundaries, to comprehend the cultural, biological and environmental forces that work upon my body, estranging it from me.

Spiral jetty, thirty seven years later: the cinematic time of James Benning

This article considers cinematic time in James Benning’s film, casting a glance (2007), in relation to its subject, Robert Smithson’s 1970 earthwork Spiral Jetty, and his film of the same name. The radicalism of Smithson’s thinking on time has been widely acknowledged, and his influence continues to pervade contemporary artistic practice. The relationship of Benning’s films with this legacy may appear somewhat oblique, given their apparent phenomenological rendition of ‘real time’. However, closer examination of Benning’s formal strategies reveals a more complex temporal construction, characterized by uncertain intervals that interrupt the folding of cinematic time into the flow of consciousness. Smithson’s film uses cinematic analogy to gesture towards vast reaches of geological time; Benning’s film creates a simulated timescale to evoke the short history of the earthwork itself. Smithson’s embrace of the entropic was a counter-cultural stance at the end of the1960s, but under the shadow of ecological disaster, this orientation has come to appear melancholy and romantic rather than radical. Benning’s film returns the jetty to anthropic time, but raises questions about the ways we inhabit time. His practice of working with ‘borrowed time’ is particularly suited to the cultural and historical moment of his later work.

Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

“There’s something very familiar about all this”: generic play and performance in the Back to the Future trilogy (Robert Zemeckis, 1985, 1989, 1990)

The Back to the Future Trilogy incorporates several different generic elements, including aspects of the fifties teen movie, science fiction, comedy and the western. These different modes playfully intertwine with each other creating a complex world of repetitions, echoes and modulations. This essay seeks to interrogate the construction of generic elements and the play between them through a close analysis of a repeated performance. Genre is signalled through various strategies employed within the construction of mise-en-scène, a significant portion of this, as I would like to argue, is transmitted through performance. The material detail of a performance – incorporating gesture, movement, voice, and even surrounding elements such as costume – as well as the way it its presented within a film is key to the establishment, invocation and coherence of genre. Furthermore, attention to the complexity of performance details, particularly in the manner in which they reverberate across texts, demonstrates the intricacy of genre and its inherent mutability. The Back to the Future trilogy represents a specific interest in the flexibility of genre. Within each film, and especially across all three, aspects of various genres are interlaced through both visual and narrative detail, thus constructing a dense layer of references both within and without the texts. To explore this patterning in more detail I will interrogate the contribution of performance to generic play through close analysis of Thomas F. Wilson’s performance of Biff/Griff/Burford Tannen and his central encounter with Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) in each film. These moments take place in a fifties diner, a 1980s retro diner and a saloon respectively, each space contributing the similarities and differences in each repetition. Close attention to Wilson’s performance of each related character, which contains both modulations and repetitions used specifically to place each film’s central generic theme, demonstrates how embedded the play between genres and their flexibility is within the trilogy.

A study of anticipatory non-autonomous systems

Rhythms are manifested ubiquitously in dynamical biological processes. These fundamental processes which are necessary for the survival of living organisms include metabolism, breathing, heart beat, and, above all, the circadian rhythm coupled to the diurnal cycle. Thus, in mathematical biology, biological processes are often represented as linear or nonlinear oscillators. In the framework of nonlinear and dissipative systems (ie. the flow of energy, substances, or sensory information), they generate stable internal oscillations as a response to environmental input and, in turn, utilise such output as a means of coupling with the environment.

Smart-phone based electrocardiogram wavelet decomposition and neural network classification

This paper discusses ECG classification after parametrizing the ECG waveforms in the wavelet domain. The aim of the work is to develop an accurate classification algorithm that can be used to diagnose cardiac beat abnormalities detected using a mobile platform such as smart-phones. Continuous time recurrent neural network classifiers are considered for this task. Records from the European ST-T Database are decomposed in the wavelet domain using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) filter banks and the resulting DWT coefficients are filtered and used as inputs for training the neural network classifier. Advantages of the proposed methodology are the reduced memory requirement for the signals which is of relevance to mobile applications as well as an improvement in the ability of the neural network in its generalization ability due to the more parsimonious representation of the signal to its inputs.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Changes in music tempo entrain movement related brain activity

The neural mechanisms of music listening and appreciation are not yet completely understood. Based on the apparent relationship between the beats per minute (tempo) of music and the desire to move (for example feet tapping) induced while listening to that music it is hypothesised that musical tempo may evoke movement related activity in the brain. Participants are instructed to listen, without moving, to a large range of musical pieces spanning a range of styles and tempos during an electroencephalogram (EEG) experiment. Event-related desynchronisation (ERD) in the EEG is observed to correlate significantly with the variance of the tempo of the musical stimuli. This suggests that the dynamics of the beat of the music may induce movement related brain activity in the motor cortex. Furthermore, significant correlations are observed between EEG activity in the alpha band over the motor cortex and the bandpower of the music in the same frequency band over time. This relationship is observed to correlate with the strength of the ERD, suggesting entrainment of motor cortical activity relates to increased ERD strength

Novel heating/cooling stage designed for fluid inclusion microthermometry of large stalagmite sections

Liquid–vapour homogenisation temperatures of fluid inclusions in stalagmites are used for quantitative temperature reconstructions in paleoclimate research. Specifically for this application, we have developed a novel heating/cooling stage that can be operated with large stalagmite sections of up to 17 × 35 mm2 to simplify and improve the chronological reconstruction of paleotemperature time-series. The stage is designed for use of an oil immersion objective and a high-NA condenser front lens to obtain high-resolution images for bubble radius measurements. The temperature accuracy of the stage is better than ± 0.1 °C with a precision (reproducibility) of ± 0.02 °C.