Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epoch extraction from linear prediction residual for identification of closed glottis interval

In voiced speech analysis epochal information is useful in accurate estimation of pitch periods and the frequency response of the vocal tract system. Ideally, linear prediction (LP) residual should give impulses at epochs. However, there are often ambiguities in the direct use of LP residual since samples of either polarity occur around epochs. Further, since the digital inverse filter does not compensate the phase response of the vocal tract system exactly, there is an uncertainty in the estimated epoch position. In this paper we present an interpretation of LP residual by considering the effect of the following factors: 1) the shape of glottal pulses, 2) inaccurate estimation of formants and bandwidths, 3) phase angles of formants at the instants of excitation, and 4) zeros in the vocal tract system. A method for the unambiguous identification of epochs from LP residual is then presented. The accuracy of the method is tested by comparing the results with the epochs obtained from the estimated glottal pulse shapes for several vowel segments. The method is used to identify the closed glottis interval for the estimation of the true frequency response of the vocal tract system.

Tuning and stability of a singly resonant continuous-wave optical parametric oscillator close to degeneracy

Wavelength tuning and stability characteristics of a singly resonant continuous-wave optical parametric oscillator (cw OPO) in the proximity of signal-idler degeneracy have been studied. The OPO is made singly resonant by using a Bragg grating as a spectral filter in the OPO cavity. The signal-idler frequency difference can be tuned from 0.5 to 7 THz, which makes the OPO suitable for cw THz generation by optical heterodyning. The operation of the OPO within this singly-resonant regime is characterized by a strong self-stabilization effect. A gradual transition to an unstable, doubly-resonant regime is observed for a signal-idler detuning smaller than ~ 0.5 THz.

Q-Band beam wave-guide

Consideration is given to a 25-foot long Q-band (8 mm) confocal, zoned dielectric lens beam waveguide. Numerical expressions for the axial and radial fields are presented. The experimental set-up consisted of uniformly spaced zoned dielectric lenses, a transmitting horn and a receiving horn. It was found that: (1) the wave beam is reiterated when confocal, zoned dielectric lenses act as phase transformers in place of smooth surfaced transformers in beam waveguides; (2) the axial field is oscillatory near the source and the oscillation persists for about 25 cm from the source; (3) the oscillation disappears after one lens is used; (4) higher order modes with higher attenuation rates die out faster than fundamental modes; (5) phase transformers do not alter beam modes; (6) without any lens the beam cross-section broadens significantly in the Z-direction; (7) with one lens the beam exhibits the reiteration phenomenon; and (8) inserting a second lens on the axial and cross-sectional field distribution shows further the reiteration principle.

Inverse problem for the wave equation : partial data and novel boundary sources

An inverse problem for the wave equation is a mathematical formulation of the problem to convert measurements of sound waves to information about the wave speed governing the propagation of the waves. This doctoral thesis extends the theory on the inverse problems for the wave equation in cases with partial measurement data and also considers detection of discontinuous interfaces in the wave speed. A possible application of the theory is obstetric sonography in which ultrasound measurements are transformed into an image of the fetus in its mother's uterus. The wave speed inside the body can not be directly observed but sound waves can be produced outside the body and their echoes from the body can be recorded. The present work contains five research articles. In the first and the fifth articles we show that it is possible to determine the wave speed uniquely by using far apart sound sources and receivers. This extends a previously known result which requires the sound waves to be produced and recorded in the same place. Our result is motivated by a possible application to reflection seismology which seeks to create an image of the Earth s crust from recording of echoes stimulated for example by explosions. For this purpose, the receivers can not typically lie near the powerful sound sources. In the second article we present a sound source that allows us to recover many essential features of the wave speed from the echo produced by the source. Moreover, these features are known to determine the wave speed under certain geometric assumptions. Previously known results permitted the same features to be recovered only by sequential measurement of echoes produced by multiple different sources. The reduced number of measurements could increase the number possible applications of acoustic probing. In the third and fourth articles we develop an acoustic probing method to locate discontinuous interfaces in the wave speed. These interfaces typically correspond to interfaces between different materials and their locations are of interest in many applications. There are many previous approaches to this problem but none of them exploits sound sources varying freely in time. Our use of more variable sources could allow more robust implementation of the probing.

Radio wave heating of astrophysical plasmas

The coherent plasma process such as parametric decay instability (PDI) has been applied to a homogeneous and unmagnetized plasma. These instabilities cause anomalous absorption of strong electromagnetic radiation under specific conditions of energy and momentum conservation and thus cause anomalous heating of the plasma. The maximum plasma temperatures reached are functions of luminosity of the radio radiation and plasma parameters. We believe that these processes may be taking place in many astrophysical objects. Here, the conditions in the sources 3C 273, 3C 48 and Crab Nebula are shown to be conducive to the excitation of PDI. These processes also contribute towards the absorption of 21cm radiation

Performance prediction and loss analysis of low specific speed submersible pumps

A performance prediction procedure is presented for low specific speed submersible pumps with a review of loss models given in the literature. Most of the loss theories discussed in this paper are one dimensional and improvements are made with good empiricism for the prediction to cover the entire range of operation of the low specific speed pumps. Loss correlations, particularly in the low flow range, are discussed. Prediction of the shape of efficiency-capacity and total head-capacity curves agrees well with the experimental results in almost the full range of operating conditions. The approach adopted in the present analysis, of estimating the losses in the individual components of a pump, provides means for improving the performance and identifying the problem areas in existing designs of the pumps. The investigation also provides a basis for selection of parameters for the optimal design of the pumps in which the maximum efficiency is an important design parameter. The scope for improvement in the prediction procedure with the nature of flow phenomena in the low flow region has been discussed in detail.

Exact traveling- wave solution for model geophysical systems

Exact traveling-wave solutions of time-dependent nonlinear inhomogeneous PDEs, describing several model systems in geophysical fluid dynamics, are found. The reduced nonlinear ODEs are treated as systems of linear algebraic equations in the derivatives. A variety of solutions are found, depending on the rank of the algebraic systems. The geophysical systems include acoustic gravity waves, inertial waves, and Rossby waves. The solutions describe waves which are, in general, either periodic or monoclinic. The present approach is compared with the earlier one due to Grundland (1974) for finding exact solutions of inhomogeneous systems of nonlinear PDEs.

Component wave delineation of ECG by filtering in the Fourier domain

A complete solution to the fundamental problem of delineation of an ECG signal into its component waves by filtering the discrete Fourier transform of the signal is presented. The set of samples in a component wave is transformed into a complex sequence with a distinct frequency band. The filter characteristics are determined from the time signal itself. Multiplication of the transformed signal with a complex sinusoidal function allows the use of a bank of low-pass filters for the delineation of all component waves. Data from about 300 beats have been analysed and the results are highly satisfactory both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Exact nonlinear travelling hydromagnetic wave solutions

Exact travelling wave solutions for hydromagnetic waves in an exponentially stratified incompressible medium are obtained. With the help of two integrals it becomes possible to reduce the system of seven nonlinear PDE's to a second order nonlinear ODE which describes an one dimensional harmonic oscillator with a nonlinear friction term. This equation is studied in detail in the phase plane. The travelling waves are periodic only when they propagate either horizontally or vertically. The reduced second order nonlinear differential equation describing the travelling waves in inhomogeneous conducting media has rather ubiquitous nature in that it also appears in other geophysical systems such as internal waves, Rossby waves and topographic Rossby waves in the ocean.

Analysis of reflection characteristics of a normal incidence plane wave on resonant sound absorbers: A finite element approach

Resonant sound absorbers are used widely as anechoic coatings in underwater applications. In this paper a finite element scheme based on the Galerkin technique is used to analyze the reflection characteristics of the resonant absorber when insonified by a normal incidence plane wave. A waveguide theory coupled with an impedance matching condition in the fluid is used to model the problem. It is shown in this paper that the fluid medium encompassing the absorber can be modeled as an elastic medium with equivalent Lamé constants. Quarter symmetry conditions within the periodic unit cell are exploited. The finite element results are compared with analytical results, and with results published elsewhere in the literature. It is shown in the process that meshing of the fluid domain can be obviated if the transmission coefficients or reflection coefficients only are desired as is often the case. Finally, some design curves for thin resonant absorbers with water closure are presented in this paper.

Criteria for prediction of flow instabilities and microstructural manifestations during warm working of AISI 304L stainless steel

The deformation characteristics of 304L stainless steel in compression in the temperature range 20–700°C and strain rate range 0·001–100 s−1 have been studied with the aim of characterising the .flow instabilities occurring in the microstructure. At higher temperatures and strain rates the stainless steel exhibits flow localisation, whereas at temperatures below 500°C and strain rates lower than 0·1 s−1 the flow instabilities are due to dynamic strain aging. Strain induced martensite formation is responsible for the flow instabilities at room temperature and low strain rates (0·01 s−1). In view of the occurrence of these instabilities, cold working is preferable to warm working to achieve dimensional tolerance and reproducible properties in the product. Among the different criteria tested to explain the occurrence of instabilities, the continuum criterion, developed on the basis of the principles of maximum rate of entropy production and separability of the dissipation function, predicts accurately all the above instability features.

Fatigue life prediction of adhesively bonded single lap joints

Better fatigue performance of adhesively bonded joints makes them suitable for most structural applications. However, predicting the service life of bonded joints accurately remains a challenge. In this present study, nonlinear computational simulations have been performed on adhesively bonded single lap ASTM-D1002 shear joint considering both geometrical and material nonlinearities to predict the fatigue life by judiciously applying the modified Coffin-Manson equation for adhesive joints. Elasto-plastic material models have been employed for both the adhesive and the adherends. The predicted life has close agreement in the high cycle fatigue (HCF) regime with empirical observations reported in the literature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.