The interest rates and performance of MFIs in the MENA region: is there a moral issue?

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Modeling of Suspended Sediment Dynamics in Tropical River Basins

It is proposed to study the suspended sediment transport characteristics of river basins of Kerala and to model suspended sediment discharge mechanism for typical micro-watersheds. The Pamba river basin is selected as a representative hydrologic regime for detailed studies of suspended sediment characteristics and its seasonal variation. The applicability of various erosion models would be tested by comparing with the observed event data (by continuous monitoring of rainfall, discharge, and suspended sediment concentration for lower order streams). Empirical, conceptual and physically distributed models were used for making the comparison of performance of the models. Large variations in the discharge and sediment quantities were noticed during a particular year between the river basins investigated and for an individual river basin during the years for which the data was available. In general, the sediment yield pattern follows the seasonal distribution of rainfall, discharge and physiography of the land. This confirms with similar studies made for other Indian rivers. It was observed from this study, that the quantity of sediment transported downstream shows a decreasing trend over the years corresponding to increase in discharge. For sound and sustainable management of coastal zones, it is important to understand the balance between erosion and retention and to quantify the exact amount of the sediments reaching this eco-system. This, of course, necessitates a good length of time series data and more focused research on the behaviour of each river system, both present and past. In this realm of river inputs to ocean system, each of the 41 rivers of Kerala may have dominant yet diversified roles to influence the coastal ecosystem as reflected from this study on the major fraction of transport, namely the suspended sediments

A Study of Coir Vyvasaya Co-Operative Societies in Kerala – Performance, Problems and Prospects

The present study was undertaken to evaluate the performance of Coir Vyavasaya Co-operative societies (CVCs) in Kerala. It was also intended to examine the extent of fulfillment of the objectives of Co-operativisation Scheme and the socio-economic betterment of worker members, Further the study was directed to find out the level of participation of members in the affairs of CVCs and to identify the major problems confronting the CVCs and the future prospects of the industry. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the performance of CVCs in Kerala with reference to the objectives of co-operativisation, socio-economic background of the worker members of the CVCs in the state, extent of members participation, major problems etc. Major findings of the study shows that 84% of CVCs surveyed were incurring losses, the long-term solvency position of the CVCS shows very pathetic situation, ration analysis shows and unhealthy state of affaires with respect to short-term solvency position and operating efficiency of all categories of CVS were found to be extremely poor. If CVCs are enabled to increase their quantity of production and there by the volume of business, their amount of loss can be reduced. If this is so, the societies can provide more days of employment to their work members, which will help them to earn more wages and thereby improve their economic and social conditions

Performance Effectiveness Of Bank Managers: A Study Of Psycho-Social Correlates

The present study by the researcher focuses attention on the problem of performance effectiveness among managers operating in one of the critical and socially important sectors of our economy namely commercial banking. The banking sector is selected for the study due to two reasons. Firstly, commercial banking plays an important role in the country's development. Secondly, for improving the efficiency of the banking system, we need to know more about the performance dynamics of the executives in our banking organizations

Analyzing and Modeling a Multiparty Outsourcing Environment.

This paper discusses the complexities involved in managing and monitoring the delivery of IT services in a multiparty outsourcing environment. The complexities identified are grouped into four categories and are tabulated. A discussion on an attempt to model a multiparty outsourcing scenario using UML is also presented and explained using an illustration. Such a model when supplemented by a performance evaluation tool can enable an organization to manage the provision of IT services in a multiparty outsourcing environment more effectively

A semi-automatic method for segmentation and 3D modeling of glioma tumors from brain MRI

This work presents an efficient method for volume rendering of glioma tumors from segmented 2D MRI Datasets with user interactive control, by replacing manual segmentation required in the state of art methods. The most common primary brain tumors are gliomas, evolving from the cerebral supportive cells. For clinical follow-up, the evaluation of the pre- operative tumor volume is essential. Tumor portions were automatically segmented from 2D MR images using morphological filtering techniques. These seg- mented tumor slices were propagated and modeled with the software package. The 3D modeled tumor consists of gray level values of the original image with exact tumor boundary. Axial slices of FLAIR and T2 weighted images were used for extracting tumors. Volumetric assessment of tumor volume with manual segmentation of its outlines is a time-consuming proc- ess and is prone to error. These defects are overcome in this method. Authors verified the performance of our method on several sets of MRI scans. The 3D modeling was also done using segmented 2D slices with the help of a medical software package called 3D DOCTOR for verification purposes. The results were validated with the ground truth models by the Radi- ologist.

Some Aspects of Domain Specific Conceptual Modeling for Simulation of Logistic Terminal Operations

When simulation modeling is used for performance improvement studies of complex systems such as transport terminals, domain specific conceptual modeling constructs could be used by modelers to create structured models. A two stage procedure which includes identification of the problem characteristics/cluster - ‘knowledge acquisition’ and identification of standard models for the problem cluster – ‘model abstraction’ was found to be effective in creating structured models when applied to certain logistic terminal systems. In this paper we discuss some methods and examples related the knowledge acquisition and model abstraction stages for the development of three different types of model categories of terminal systems

Performance Assessment of Sandwich Structures with Debonds and Dents

A sandwich construction is a special form of the laminated composite consisting of light weight core, sandwiched between two stiff thin face sheets. Due to high stiffness to weight ratio, sandwich construction is widely adopted in aerospace industries. As a process dependent bonded structure, the most severe defects associated with sandwich construction are debond (skin core bond failure) and dent (locally deformed skin associated with core crushing). Reasons for debond may be attributed to initial manufacturing flaws or in service loads and dent can be caused by tool drops or impacts by foreign objects. This paper presents an evaluation on the performance of honeycomb sandwich cantilever beam with the presence of debond or dent, using layered finite element models. Dent is idealized by accounting core crushing in the core thickness along with the eccentricity of the skin. Debond is idealized using multilaminate modeling at debond location with contact element between the laminates. Vibration and buckling behavior of metallic honeycomb sandwich beam with and without damage are carried out. Buckling load factor, natural frequency, mode shape and modal strain energy are evaluated using finite element package ANSYS 13.0. Study shows that debond affect the performance of the structure more severely than dent. Reduction in the fundamental frequencies due to the presence of dent or debond is not significant for the case considered. But the debond reduces the buckling load factor significantly. Dent of size 8-20% of core thickness shows 13% reduction in buckling load capacity of the sandwich column. But debond of the same size reduced the buckling load capacity by about 90%. This underscores the importance of detecting these damages in the initiation level itself to avoid catastrophic failures. Influence of the damages on fundamental frequencies, mode shape and modal strain energy are examined. Effectiveness of these parameters as a damage detection tool for sandwich structure is also assessed

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Optimierung von Betriebsstrategien für elektrifizierte Antriebskonzepte

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird eine gemeinsame Optimierung der Hybrid-Betriebsstrategie und des Verhaltens des Verbrennungsmotors vorgestellt. Die Übernahme von den im Steuergerät verwendeten Funktionsmodulen in die Simulationsumgebung für Fahrzeuglängsdynamik stellt eine effiziente Applikationsmöglichkeit der Originalparametrierung dar. Gleichzeitig ist es notwendig, das Verhalten des Verbrennungsmotors derart nachzubilden, dass das stationäre und das dynamische Verhalten, inklusive aller relevanten Einflussmöglichkeiten, wiedergegeben werden kann. Das entwickelte Werkzeug zur Übertragung der in Ascet definierten Steurgerätefunktionen in die Simulink-Simulationsumgebung ermöglicht nicht nur die Simulation der relevanten Funktionsmodule, sondern es erfüllt auch weitere wichtige Eigenschaften. Eine erhöhte Flexibilität bezüglich der Daten- und Funktionsstandänderungen, sowie die Parametrierbarkeit der Funktionsmodule sind Verbesserungen die an dieser Stelle zu nennen sind. Bei der Modellierung des stationären Systemverhaltens des Verbrennungsmotors erfolgt der Einsatz von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen. Die Auswahl der optimalen Neuronenanzahl erfolgt durch die Betrachtung des SSE für die Trainings- und die Verifikationsdaten. Falls notwendig, wird zur Sicherstellung der angestrebten Modellqualität, das Interpolationsverhalten durch Hinzunahme von Gauß-Prozess-Modellen verbessert. Mit den Gauß-Prozess-Modellen werden hierbei zusätzliche Stützpunkte erzeugt und mit einer verminderten Priorität in die Modellierung eingebunden. Für die Modellierung des dynamischen Systemverhaltens werden lineare Übertragungsfunktionen verwendet. Bei der Minimierung der Abweichung zwischen dem Modellausgang und den Messergebnissen wird zusätzlich zum SSE das 2σ-Intervall der relativen Fehlerverteilung betrachtet. Die Implementierung der Steuergerätefunktionsmodule und der erstellten Steller-Sensor-Streckenmodelle in der Simulationsumgebung für Fahrzeuglängsdynamik führt zum Anstieg der Simulationszeit und einer Vergrößerung des Parameterraums. Das aus Regelungstechnik bekannte Verfahren der Gütevektoroptimierung trägt entscheidend zu einer systematischen Betrachtung und Optimierung der Zielgrößen bei. Das Ergebnis des Verfahrens ist durch das Optimum der Paretofront der einzelnen Entwurfsspezifikationen gekennzeichnet. Die steigenden Simulationszeiten benachteiligen Minimumsuchverfahren, die eine Vielzahl an Iterationen benötigen. Um die Verwendung einer Zufallsvariablen, die maßgeblich zur Steigerung der Iterationanzahl beiträgt, zu vermeiden und gleichzeitig eine Globalisierung der Suche im Parameterraum zu ermöglichen wird die entwickelte Methode DelaunaySearch eingesetzt. Im Gegensatz zu den bekannten Algorithmen, wie die Partikelschwarmoptimierung oder die evolutionären Algorithmen, setzt die neu entwickelte Methode bei der Suche nach dem Minimum einer Kostenfunktion auf eine systematische Analyse der durchgeführten Simulationsergebnisse. Mit Hilfe der bei der Analyse gewonnenen Informationen werden Bereiche mit den bestmöglichen Voraussetzungen für ein Minimum identifiziert. Somit verzichtet das iterative Verfahren bei der Bestimmung des nächsten Iterationsschrittes auf die Verwendung einer Zufallsvariable. Als Ergebnis der Berechnungen steht ein gut gewählter Startwert für eine lokale Optimierung zur Verfügung. Aufbauend auf der Simulation der Fahrzeuglängsdynamik, der Steuergerätefunktionen und der Steller-Sensor-Streckenmodelle in einer Simulationsumgebung wird die Hybrid-Betriebsstrategie gemeinsam mit der Steuerung des Verbrennungsmotors optimiert. Mit der Entwicklung und Implementierung einer neuen Funktion wird weiterhin die Verbindung zwischen der Betriebsstrategie und der Motorsteuerung erweitert. Die vorgestellten Werkzeuge ermöglichten hierbei nicht nur einen Test der neuen Funktionalitäten, sondern auch eine Abschätzung der Verbesserungspotentiale beim Verbrauch und Abgasemissionen. Insgesamt konnte eine effiziente Testumgebung für eine gemeinsame Optimierung der Betriebsstrategie und des Verbrennungsmotorverhaltens eines Hybridfahrzeugs realisiert werden.

Multisensor Modeling Underwater with Uncertain Information

This thesis develops an approach to the construction of multidimensional stochastic models for intelligent systems exploring an underwater environment. It describes methods for building models by a three- dimensional spatial decomposition of stochastic, multisensor feature vectors. New sensor information is incrementally incorporated into the model by stochastic backprojection. Error and ambiguity are explicitly accounted for by blurring a spatial projection of remote sensor data before incorporation. The stochastic models can be used to derive surface maps or other representations of the environment. The methods are demonstrated on data sets from multibeam bathymetric surveying, towed sidescan bathymetry, towed sidescan acoustic imagery, and high-resolution scanning sonar aboard a remotely operated vehicle.

The Individual is Nothing, the Class Everything: Psychophysics and Modeling of Recognition in Obect Classes

Most psychophysical studies of object recognition have focussed on the recognition and representation of individual objects subjects had previously explicitely been trained on. Correspondingly, modeling studies have often employed a 'grandmother'-type representation where the objects to be recognized were represented by individual units. However, objects in the natural world are commonly members of a class containing a number of visually similar objects, such as faces, for which physiology studies have provided support for a representation based on a sparse population code, which permits generalization from the learned exemplars to novel objects of that class. In this paper, we present results from psychophysical and modeling studies intended to investigate object recognition in natural ('continuous') object classes. In two experiments, subjects were trained to perform subordinate level discrimination in a continuous object class - images of computer-rendered cars - created using a 3D morphing system. By comparing the recognition performance of trained and untrained subjects we could estimate the effects of viewpoint-specific training and infer properties of the object class-specific representation learned as a result of training. We then compared the experimental findings to simulations, building on our recently presented HMAX model of object recognition in cortex, to investigate the computational properties of a population-based object class representation as outlined above. We find experimental evidence, supported by modeling results, that training builds a viewpoint- and class-specific representation that supplements a pre-existing repre-sentation with lower shape discriminability but possibly greater viewpoint invariance.

On the difficulty of feature-based attentional modulations in visual object recognition: A modeling study.

Numerous psychophysical experiments have shown an important role for attentional modulations in vision. Behaviorally, allocation of attention can improve performance in object detection and recognition tasks. At the neural level, attention increases firing rates of neurons in visual cortex whose preferred stimulus is currently attended to. However, it is not yet known how these two phenomena are linked, i.e., how the visual system could be "tuned" in a task-dependent fashion to improve task performance. To answer this question, we performed simulations with the HMAX model of object recognition in cortex [45]. We modulated firing rates of model neurons in accordance with experimental results about effects of feature-based attention on single neurons and measured changes in the model's performance in a variety of object recognition tasks. It turned out that recognition performance could only be improved under very limited circumstances and that attentional influences on the process of object recognition per se tend to display a lack of specificity or raise false alarm rates. These observations lead us to postulate a new role for the observed attention-related neural response modulations.