RACORO extended-term, aircraft observations of boundary-layer clouds

A first-of-a-kind, extended-term cloud aircraft campaign was conducted to obtain an in-situ statistical characterization of continental boundary-layer clouds needed to investigate cloud processes and refine retrieval algorithms. Coordinated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), the Routine AAF Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign operated over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 22 January to 30 June 2009, collecting 260 h of data during 59 research flights. A comprehensive payload aboard the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft measured cloud microphysics, solar and thermal radiation, physical aerosol properties, and atmospheric state parameters. Proximity to the SGP's extensive complement of surface measurements provides ancillary data that supports modeling studies and facilitates evaluation of a variety of surface retrieval algorithms. The five-month duration enabled sampling a range of conditions associated with the seasonal transition from winter to summer. Although about two-thirds of the cloud flights occurred in May and June, boundary-layer cloud fields were sampled under a variety of environmental and aerosol conditions, with about 77% of the flights occurring in cumulus and stratocumulus. Preliminary analyses illustrate use of these data to analyze cloud-aerosol relationships, characterize the horizontal variability of cloud radiative impacts, and evaluate surface-based retrievals. We discuss how an extended-term campaign requires a simplified operating paradigm that is different from that used for typical, short-term, intensive aircraft field programs.

Toeplitz operators on Bergman spaces with locally integrable symbols

We study the boundedness of Toeplitz operators $T_a$ with locally integrable symbols on Bergman spaces $A^p(\mathbb{D})$, $1 < p < \infty$. Our main result gives a sufficient condition for the boundedness of $T_a$ in terms of some ``averages'' (related to hyperbolic rectangles) of its symbol. If the averages satisfy an ${o}$-type condition on the boundary of $\mathbb{D}$, we show that the corresponding Toeplitz operator is compact on $A^p$. Both conditions coincide with the known necessary conditions in the case of nonnegative symbols and $p=2$. We also show that Toeplitz operators with symbols of vanishing mean oscillation are Fredholm on $A^p$ provided that the averages are bounded away from zero, and derive an index formula for these operators.

Spectral theory of Toeplitz and Hankel operators on the Bergman space A1

The Fredholm properties of Toeplitz operators on the Bergman space A2 have been well-known for continuous symbols since the 1970s. We investigate the case p=1 with continuous symbols under a mild additional condition, namely that of the logarithmic vanishing mean oscillation in the Bergman metric. Most differences are related to boundedness properties of Toeplitz operators acting on Ap that arise when we no longer have 1

The ENSO-Asian monsoon interaction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

In this study, the authors evaluate the (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) ENSO–Asian monsoon interaction in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) known as HadCM3. The main focus is on two evolving anomalous anticyclones: one located over the south Indian Ocean (SIO) and the other over the western North Pacific (WNP). These two anomalous anticyclones are closely related to the developing and decaying phases of the ENSO and play a crucial role in linking the Asian monsoon to ENSO. It is found that the HadCM3 can well simulate the main features of the evolution of both anomalous anticyclones and the related SST dipoles, in association with the different phases of the ENSO cycle. By using the simulated results, the authors examine the relationship between the WNP/SIO anomalous anticyclones and the ENSO cycle, in particular the biennial component of the relationship. It is found that a strong El Niño event tends to be followed by a more rapid decay and is much more likely to become a La Niña event in the subsequent winter. The twin anomalous anticyclones in the western Pacific in the summer of a decaying El Niño are crucial for the transition from an El Niño into a La Niña. The El Niño (La Niña) events, especially the strong ones, strengthen significantly the correspondence between the SIO anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the preceding autumn and WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the subsequent spring, and favor the persistence of the WNP anomaly from spring to summer. The present results suggest that both El Niño (La Niña) and the SIO/WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies are closely tied with the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO). In addition, variability in the East Asian summer monsoon, which is dominated by the internal atmospheric variability, seems to be responsible for the appearance of the WNP anticyclonic anomaly through an upper-tropospheric meridional teleconnection pattern over the western and central Pacific.

Four-dimensional data assimilation and balanced dynamics

The problem of spurious excitation of gravity waves in the context of four-dimensional data assimilation is investigated using a simple model of balanced dynamics. The model admits a chaotic vortical mode coupled to a comparatively fast gravity wave mode, and can be initialized such that the model evolves on a so-called slow manifold, where the fast motion is suppressed. Identical twin assimilation experiments are performed, comparing the extended and ensemble Kalman filters (EKF and EnKF, respectively). The EKF uses a tangent linear model (TLM) to estimate the evolution of forecast error statistics in time, whereas the EnKF uses the statistics of an ensemble of nonlinear model integrations. Specifically, the case is examined where the true state is balanced, but observation errors project onto all degrees of freedom, including the fast modes. It is shown that the EKF and EnKF will assimilate observations in a balanced way only if certain assumptions hold, and that, outside of ideal cases (i.e., with very frequent observations), dynamical balance can easily be lost in the assimilation. For the EKF, the repeated adjustment of the covariances by the assimilation of observations can easily unbalance the TLM, and destroy the assumptions on which balanced assimilation rests. It is shown that an important factor is the choice of initial forecast error covariance matrix. A balance-constrained EKF is described and compared to the standard EKF, and shown to offer significant improvement for observation frequencies where balance in the standard EKF is lost. The EnKF is advantageous in that balance in the error covariances relies only on a balanced forecast ensemble, and that the analysis step is an ensemble-mean operation. Numerical experiments show that the EnKF may be preferable to the EKF in terms of balance, though its validity is limited by ensemble size. It is also found that overobserving can lead to a more unbalanced forecast ensemble and thus to an unbalanced analysis.

Fighting undernutrition: don't forget the bugs

Severe acute malnutrition is a major cause of child death in developing countries. In a recent study, Smith et al.(2013) monitored a large twin cohort in Malawi to unveil a causal relationship between gut microbiota and weight loss in undernutrition .

Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Synoptic activity over the Northern Hemisphere is evaluated in ensembles of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 simulations for recent climate conditions (20C) and for three climate scenarios (following SRES A1B, A2, B1). A close agreement is found between the simulations for present day climate and the respective results from reanalysis. Significant changes in the winter mid-tropospheric storm tracks are detected in all three scenario simulations. Ensemble mean climate signals are rather similar, with particularly large activity increases downstream of the Atlantic storm track over Western Europe. The magnitude of this signal is largely dependent on the imposed change in forcing. However, differences between individual ensemble members may be large. With respect to the surface cyclones, the scenario runs produce a reduction in cyclonic track density over the mid-latitudes, even in the areas with increasing mid-tropospheric activity. The largest decrease in track densities occurs at subtropical latitudes, e.g., over the Mediterranean Basin. An increase of cyclone intensities is detected for limited areas (e.g., near Great Britain and Aleutian Isles) for the A1B and A2 experiments. The changes in synoptic activity are associated with alterations of the Northern Hemisphere circulation and background conditions (blocking frequencies, jet stream). The North Atlantic Oscillation index also shows increased values with enhanced forcing. With respect to the effects of changing synoptic activity, the regional change in cyclone intensities is accompanied by alterations of the extreme surface winds, with increasing values over Great Britain, North and Baltic Seas, as well as the areas with vanishing sea ice, and decreases over much of the subtropics.

Roman public libraries

This thesis aims to investigate the development and functions of public libraries in Rome and the Roman world. After a preface with maps of libraries in Rome, Section I discusses the precursors for public library provision in the private book collections of Republican Rome, and their transfer into the public domain with the first public libraries of Asinius Pollio and Augustus. Section II contains three 'case studies' of public libraries' different roles. The Augustan library programme is used in Ch.II.l to examine the role of imperial public libraries in literary life and the connections between Rome's libraries and those of Alexandria. Chapter II.2 concentrates on the libraries of Trajan's Forum to explore the intersection of imperial public libraries and monumental public architecture. This chapter responds to an important recent article by arguing for the continued identification of the Forum's libraries with twin brick buildings at its northern end, and suggests a series of correspondences between these libraries and its other monumental components. The conclusions of this chapter are important when considering the public libraries of the wider empire, several of which seem to have been inspired by the Trajanic libraries. Chapter II.3 considers imperial public libraries and leisure by looking at the evidence for libraries within bath-house complexes, concluding that their presence there is consistent with the archaeological and epigraphic evidence and fits in well with what we know of the intellectual and cultural life of these structures. Section III examines various aspects of the practical function of Roman public libraries: their contents (books and archives), division into Latin and Greek sections, provisions for shelving and cataloguing, staff, usership, architectural form, decoration, and housing of works of art. The picture that emerges is of carefully designed and functional buildings intended to sustain public, monumental, and practical functions. Section IV uses a variety of texts to examine the way in which libraries were viewed and used. Ch. IV. 1 discusses the evidence for use of libraries by scholars and authors such as Gellius, Galen, Josephus, and Apuleius. Ch. IV.2 examines parallels between library collections and compendious encyclopaedic elements within Roman literature and considers how library collections came to be canon-forming institutions and vehicles for the expression of imperial approval or disapproval towards authors. The channels through which this imperial influence flowed are investigated in Ch. IV.3, which looks at the directors and staff of the public libraries of Rome. The final section (V) of the thesis concerns public libraries outside the city of Rome. Provincial libraries provide a useful case study in 'Romanisation': they reveal a range of influences and are shown to embody local, personal, and metropolitan imperial identities. There follows a brief conclusion, and a bibliography. There are also five appendices of numismatic and epigraphic material discussed in the text. This material has not been adequately or completely gathered elsewhere and is intended to assist the reader; where appropriate it includes illustrations, transcriptions, and translations.

Non-ergodicity of inviscid two-dimensional flow on a beta-plane and on the surface of a rotating sphere

It is shown that, for a sufficiently large value of β, two-dimensional flow on a doubly-periodic beta-plane cannot be ergodic (phase-space filling) on the phase-space surface of constant energy and enstrophy. A corresponding result holds for flow on the surface of a rotating sphere, for a sufficiently rapid rotation rate Ω. This implies that the higher-order, non-quadratic invariants are exerting a significant influence on the statistical evolution of the flow. The proof relies on the existence of a finite-amplitude Liapunov stability theorem for zonally symmetric basic states with a non-vanishing absolute-vorticity gradient. When the domain size is much larger than the size of a typical eddy, then a sufficient condition for non-ergodicity is that the wave steepness ε < 1, where ε = 2[surd radical]2Z/βU in the planar case and $\epsilon = 2^{\frac{1}{4}} a^{\frac{5}{2}}Z^{\frac{7}{4}}/\Omega U^{\frac{5}{2}}$ in the spherical case, and where Z is the enstrophy, U the r.m.s. velocity, and a the radius of the sphere. This result may help to explain why numerical simulations of unforced beta-plane turbulence (in which ε decreases in time) seem to evolve into a non-ergodic regime at large scales.

A simple syllogism-solving test: empirical findings and implications for g research

It has been reported that the ability to solve syllogisms is highly g-loaded. In the present study, using a self-administered shortened version of a syllogism-solving test, the BAROCO Short, we examined whether robust findings generated by previous research regarding IQ scores were also applicable to BAROCO Short scores. Five syllogism-solving problems were included in a questionnaire as part of a postal survey conducted by the Keio Twin Research Center. Data were collected from 487 pairs of twins (1021 individuals) who were Japanese junior high or high school students (ages 13–18) and from 536 mothers and 431 fathers. Four findings related to IQ were replicated: 1) The mean level increased gradually during adolescence, stayed unchanged from the 30s to the early 50s, and subsequently declined after the late 50s. 2) The scores for both children and parents were predicted by the socioeconomic status of the family. 3) The genetic effect increased, although the shared environmental effect decreased during progression from adolescence to adulthood. 4) Children's scores were genetically correlated with school achievement. These findings further substantiate the close association between syllogistic reasoning ability and g.

Efficient fully nonlinear data assimilation for geophysical fluid dynamics

A potential problem with Ensemble Kalman Filter is the implicit Gaussian assumption at analysis times. Here we explore the performance of a recently proposed fully nonlinear particle filter on a high-dimensional but simplified ocean model, in which the Gaussian assumption is not made. The model simulates the evolution of the vorticity field in time, described by the barotropic vorticity equation, in a highly nonlinear flow regime. While common knowledge is that particle filters are inefficient and need large numbers of model runs to avoid degeneracy, the newly developed particle filter needs only of the order of 10-100 particles on large scale problems. The crucial new ingredient is that the proposal density cannot only be used to ensure all particles end up in high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations, but also to ensure that most of the particles have similar weights. Using identical twin experiments we found that the ensemble mean follows the truth reliably, and the difference from the truth is captured by the ensemble spread. A rank histogram is used to show that the truth run is indistinguishable from any of the particles, showing statistical consistency of the method.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialization of Northern-hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates significantly reduces assimilation error both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations, reducing the concentration error by a factor of four to six, and the thickness error by a factor of two. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that the strong dependence of thermodynamic ice growth on ice concentration necessitates an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that proportional mean-thickness updates are superior to the other two methods considered and enable us to assimilate sea ice in a global climate model using simple Newtonian relaxation.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions.

Estimating correlated observation error statistics using an ensemble transform Kalman filter

For certain observing types, such as those that are remotely sensed, the observation errors are correlated and these correlations are state- and time-dependent. In this work, we develop a method for diagnosing and incorporating spatially correlated and time-dependent observation error in an ensemble data assimilation system. The method combines an ensemble transform Kalman filter with a method that uses statistical averages of background and analysis innovations to provide an estimate of the observation error covariance matrix. To evaluate the performance of the method, we perform identical twin experiments using the Lorenz ’96 and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky models. Using our approach, a good approximation to the true observation error covariance can be recovered in cases where the initial estimate of the error covariance is incorrect. Spatial observation error covariances where the length scale of the true covariance changes slowly in time can also be captured. We find that using the estimated correlated observation error in the assimilation improves the analysis.

Sea ice–ocean coupling using a rescaled vertical coordinate z*

Realistic representation of sea ice in ocean models involves the use of a non-linear free-surface, a real freshwater flux and observance of requisite conservation laws. We show here that these properties can be achieved in practice through use of a rescaled vertical coordinate ‘‘z*” in z-coordinate models that allows one to follow undulations in the free-surface under sea ice loading. In particular, the adoption of "z*" avoids the difficult issue of vanishing levels under thick ice. Details of the implementation within MITgcm are provided. A high resolution global ocean sea ice simulation illustrates the robustness of the z* formulation and reveals a source of oceanic variability associated with sea ice dynamics and ice-loading effects. The use of the z* coordinate allows one to achieve perfect conservation of fresh water, heat and salt, as shown in extended integration of coupled ocean sea ice atmospheric model.