Környezeti kockázatok felmérése. Paraméterek bizonytalanságának hatása a kockázatkezelési döntéshozatalra = Assessment of environmental risks – effects of parameter uncertainty to the risk management decisions

A környezeti kockázatok megfelelő felmérése és kezelése napjaink egyik legfontosabb kérdése, nemcsak a szakmai, hanem a széles értelemben vett közvélemény számára. A szerző cikkében azt vizsgálja, hogy a környezeti kockázatok felmérésének milyen megközelítései vannak. Kulcskérdésként pedig arra koncentrál, hogy a kockázatkezelési döntéseket hogyan befolyásolja a becslések bizonytalansága. Először a környezeti kockázat definícióját adja meg, majd azt mutatja be, hogy a környezeti kockázatok kezelésére vonatkozó megközelítések milyen párhuzamban állnak a pénzügyi rendszerrel, mint komplex rendszerre vonatkozó megközelítésekkel. Végül a jelenleg legnagyobb kockázatoknak tartott környezeti kockázatokat ismerteti röviden. A cikk második részében kockázatkezelési alternatívákat mutat be, és azt, hogy a kockázatkezelési lépések kiválasztását befolyásolja a bizonytalanság. Ezt illusztrálandó Brouwer-Blois (2008) modelljét használva a soklépéses szimulációt és alternatív döntési kritériumot – a kritikus (extrém) költség-hatás mutatót – alkalmazza. _____________ Adequate assessment and management of environmental risks is a key question nowadays also for professional experts and also for the overall public. In this article the author examines the different approaches concerning environmental risks. He concentrates as a key question the influence on risk management decisions of uncertainties raised by our estimations. First he analyses the definition of environmental risks, and he shows the similarities and differences between approaches concerning environmental risks and risks threatening financial system, and finally he gives short overview on the most current environmental risks. In the second part of the paper he presents risk management alternatives and analyses the influential power of uncertainty on risk management decisions. In order to illustrate this phenomenon the author applies the model of Brouwer-Blois (2008) with multistep simulation and an alternative decisive criterion, the ranking based on critical (extreme) cost to effect measure.

Consumer behaviour and lifestyle patterns of Hungarian students in view of environmental awareness

The aim of this paper is to describe the consumer behaviour and everyday lifestyle patterns of Hungarian university and college students. The results are gained from an international survey, carried out by the Department of Environmental Economics and Technology at the Corvinus University of Budapest, supported by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism. As background literature, characteristics of the consumer society and the development of sustainable consumption as a concept are interpreted in the paper. The empirical analysis aims to describe the most important clusters of students, based on the factors of their consumer behaviour, environmental activism and pro-environmental everyday habits. Our results identify two extreme clusters which most significantly differ from each other: the environmental activists and the indifferent group. However, a third cluster has the most modest consumer behaviour, namely the group which considers product features, energy consumption and the behaviour of producers. They spend the least on consumer goods. The three other clusters show quite mixed lifestyle patterns.

A technológiai fejlődés hatása a tartós eszközök gazdasági értékcsökkenésére (The effect of technological progress on economic depreciation of durable assets)

A cikk a tartós eszközök gazdasági értékcsökkenésének elméleti hátterét vizsgálja az eszközökben megtestesülő szolgálatok felemésztődése szempontjából. Ezt a felemésztődést az eszközök kimerülésén és elhasználódásán túl, a gazdasági környezetben megjelenő testet öltő és testet nem öltő technológiai fejlődés következtében fellépő avulás is befolyásolja, mely avulás hatását a cikk részletesen tárgyalja. A technológiai fejlődés következtében fellépő avulásnak igen fontos szerepe van az eszközökhöz, és azok használati módjához legjobban illeszkedő értékcsökkenési minta kirajzolásában, amely alapján meghatározott értékcsökkenés központi eleme a vállalkozások jövedelmének, valamint a vállalkozási output egységköltségének, ami az output árazásának fontos tényezője. Ezáltal az értékcsökkenés meghatározásánál figyelembe vett avulás hatással van a vállalkozás termék és tőkepiaci versenyképességére. ___________ The paper examines the theoretical background of durable asset’s economic depreciation, from the embodied services consumption point of view. This consumption is affected by the exhaustion and deterioration beyond obsolescence which is due to embodied and disembodied technological progress that appears in the economic environment. The effect of obsolescence on the economic depreciation is examined in this paper in detail. The obsolescence due to technological progress has an important role in determining the best fit depreciation pattern to the durable asset and its usage. The economic depreciation is a central component of the company’s income, as well as the unit cost of the company’s output, which is an important element of the output pricing process. Thereby the obsolescence recognised by determining economic depreciation influences the company’s competitiveness on the product and capital markets.

Az 1990-2000 között benyújtott magyar szabadalmi bejelentések környezeti hatásának idősoros elemzése (Time series analysis of environmental effects of submitted Hungarian patents between 1990 and 2000)

A szerző e kutatás keretében az 1990–2000 közötti időszak magyar intézményi és egyéni szabadalmi bejelentők, illetve jogosultak („szabadalmasok”) szabadalmainak környezeti hatását vizsgálja. Konkrétan az ebben az időszakban a Magyar Szabadalmi Hivatalnál benyújtott szabadalmi bejelentésekből elfogadott szabadalmakat tanulmányozza, a PIPACS adatbázisban található szabadalmi leírások alapján. A pozitív környezeti hatású szabadalmak száma, valamint az összes szabadalomhoz viszonyított aránya alapján von le következtetéseket a magyar környezeti innovációs tevékenységről, és ennek potenciális magyar környezeti hatásáról. A pozitív környezeti hatású szabadalmak összes megadott szabadalomhoz viszonyított aránya az időszakban 92%-os szignifikanciaszinten növekszik. _______

A geometriai Brown-mozgás feltevésének elfogadhatósága a reálopciók értékelésében (The acceptability of the assumption of geometric brownian motion in the valuation of real options)

A reálopciók a döntési rugalmasság megtestesítőiként jelen vannak a vállalatvezetők mindennapjaiban, és cégtől függően jelentős értéket képviselhetnek. Értékelésük a hagyományos diszkontált pénzáramlás módszerekkel csak korlátozottan lehetséges, ezért alternatívaként felmerül a pénzügyi opcióárazás módszertana, amelynek hagyományos változatai az alaptermék alakulásáról geometriai Brown-mozgást feltételeznek. A cikk ezt a feltevést veszi górcső alá a reálopciókra történő alkalmazás szempontjából, és megmutatja, hogy habár önkényesnek tűnhet, valójában nem pusztán egy matematikai szempontból kényelmes megoldás, hanem pénzügyileg is elfogadható feltétel. _______ Real options represent the fl exibility of decision-making, and are thus part of the everyday work of corporate executives, often having great value. Valuing them with the use of traditional Discounted Cash Flow models has limited relevance, therefore arises the alternative methodology of fi nancial option pricing, the traditional versions of which assume that the price of the underlying asset follows Geometric Brownian Motion. The paper examines this assumption from the aspect of real option valuation and shows that although it might seem arbitrary, it is not only a mathematically convenient choice, but also a fi nancially acceptable one.

A marketingeszközök és –tevékenységek részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatása (The effect of marketing assets and activities on shareholder value)

A vállalati marketing pénzügyi teljesítményre, különösen részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatásának kimutatása mind fontosabbá válik a marketingráfordítások nagyságának növekedésével, valamint annak felismerésével, hogy a részvényesek számára vevői érték nélkül nem lehet hosszú távon értéket biztosítani, azonban kedvező piaci eredményekkel sem feltétlenül valósul meg a pénzügyi teljesítmény növekedése. A szerzők tanulmányukban a marketingeszközök és -tevékenységek részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatását vizsgálják, rámutatnak arra, hogy milyen módon befolyásolhatják a részvényeseket megillető szabad pénzáramot, a tulajdonosi megtérülést, a stratégiai tervezési időhorizontot és a végértéket. A marketing néhány lehetséges negatív hatását is kiemelik. Ezt követően felvázolják a marketingjellegű beruházások reálopciós karakterisztikáit, valamint játékelméleti összefüggéseit dinamikusan változó környezetben. ________ Proving the effect of corporate marketing on financial performance, especially on shareholder value, becomes more and more important as marketing expenditures increase. Furthermore by the recognition that for shareholders without customer value it is not possible to provide value in the long run, however, neither good market results can assure the growth of financial performance. In this paper the authors examine the effect of marketing assets and activities on shareholder value, they point out how these can influence free cash flow to equity, shareholder return, strategic planning time period and terminal value. They emphasize also some possible negative effects of marketing. The authors outline the real optional characteristics of marketing investments and their game theoretical relations in dynamic environment.

Semantic distributed database management with applications to the Internet dissemination of environmental data

The research presented in this dissertation is comprised of several parts which jointly attain the goal of Semantic Distributed Database Management with Applications to Internet Dissemination of Environmental Data. ^ Part of the research into more effective and efficient data management has been pursued through enhancements to the Semantic Binary Object-Oriented database (Sem-ODB) such as more effective load balancing techniques for the database engine, and the use of Sem-ODB as a tool for integrating structured and unstructured heterogeneous data sources. Another part of the research in data management has pursued methods for optimizing queries in distributed databases through the intelligent use of network bandwidth; this has applications in networks that provide varying levels of Quality of Service or throughput. ^ The application of the Semantic Binary database model as a tool for relational database modeling has also been pursued. This has resulted in database applications that are used by researchers at the Everglades National Park to store environmental data and to remotely-sensed imagery. ^ The areas of research described above have contributed to the creation TerraFly, which provides for the dissemination of geospatial data via the Internet. TerraFly research presented herein ranges from the development of TerraFly's back-end database and interfaces, through the features that are presented to the public (such as the ability to provide autopilot scripts and on-demand data about a point), to applications of TerraFly in the areas of hazard mitigation, recreation, and aviation. ^

An analysis of the themes of environmental sustainability in the United States curriculum science content standards

This study examined how the themes of environmental sustainability are evident in the national, state and local standards that guide k–12 science curriculum. The study applied the principles of content analysis within the framework of an ecological paradigm. In education, an ecological paradigm focuses on students' use of a holistic lens to view and understand material. The intent of this study was to analyze the seventh grade science content standards at the national, state, and local textbook levels to determine how and the extent to which each of the five themes of environmental sustainability are presented in the language of each text. The themes are: (a) Climate Change Indicators, (b) Biodiversity, (c) Human Population Density, (d) Impact and Presence of Environmental Pollution, (e) Earth as a Closed System. The research study offers practical insight on using a method of content analysis to locate keywords of environmental sustainability in the three texts and determine if the context of each term relates to this ecological paradigm. Using a concordance program, the researcher identified the frequency and context of each vocabulary item associated with these themes. Nine chi squares were run to determine if there were differences in content between the national and state standards and the textbook. Within each level chi squares were also run to determine if there were differences between the appearance of content knowledge and skill words. Results indicate that there is a lack of agreement between levels that is significant p < .01. A discussion of these results in relation to curriculum development and standardized assessments followed. The study found that at the national and state levels, there is a lack of articulation of the goals of environmental sustainability or an ecological paradigm. With respect to the science textbook, a greater number of keywords were present; however, the context of many of these keywords did not align with the discourse of an ecological paradigm. Further, the environmental sustainability themes present in the textbook were limited to the last four chapters of the text. Additional research is recommended to determine whether this situation also exists in other settings.

The potential role of environmental exposures and genomic signaling in development of central nervous system tumors

The etiology of central nervous system tumors (CNSTs) is mainly unknown. Aside from extremely rare genetic conditions, such as neurofibromatosis and tuberous sclerosis, the only unequivocally identified risk factor is exposure to ionizing radiation, and this explains only a very small fraction of cases. Using meta-analysis, gene networking and bioinformatics methods, this dissertation explored the hypothesis that environmental exposures produce genetic and epigenetic alterations that may be involved in the etiology of CNSTs. A meta-analysis of epidemiological studies of pesticides and pediatric brain tumors revealed a significantly increased risk of brain tumors among children whose mothers had farm-related exposures during pregnancy. A dose response was recognized when this risk estimate was compared to those for risk of brain tumors from maternal exposure to non-agricultural pesticides during pregnancy, and risk of brain tumors among children exposed to agricultural activities. Through meta-analysis of several microarray studies which compared normal tissue to astrocytomas, we were able to identify a list of 554 genes which were differentially expressed in the majority of astrocytomas. Many of these genes have in fact been implicated in development of astrocytoma, including EGFR, HIF-1α, c-Myc, WNT5A, and IDH3A. Reverse engineering of these 554 genes using Bayesian network analysis produced a gene network for each grade of astrocytoma (Grade I-IV), and ‘key genes’ within each grade were identified. Genes found to be most influential to development of the highest grade of astrocytoma, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) were: COL4A1, EGFR, BTF3, MPP2, RAB31, CDK4, CD99, ANXA2, TOP2A, and SERBP1. Lastly, bioinformatics analysis of environmental databases and curated published results on GBM was able to identify numerous potential pathways and geneenvironment interactions that may play key roles in astrocytoma development. Findings from this research have strong potential to advance our understanding of the etiology and susceptibility to CNSTs. Validation of our ‘key genes’ and pathways could potentially lead to useful tools for early detection and novel therapeutic options for these tumors.

Carbon (d13c) and Nitrogen (d15n) Isotopic Discrimination in Mangroves in Florida Coastal Everglades as a Function of Environmental Stress

Isotope signatures of mangrove leaves can vary depending on discrimination associated with plant response to environmental stressors defined by gra­dients of resources (such as water and nutrient limitation) and regulators (such as salinity and sul­fide toxicity). We tested the variability of man­grove isotopic signatures (d13C and d15N) across a stress gradient in south Florida, using green leaves from four mangrove species collected at six sites. Mangroves across the landscape studied are stressed by resource and regulator gradients repre­sented by limited phosphorus concentrations com­bined with high sulfide concentrations, respec­tively. Foliar d13C ratios exhibited a range from ­ 24.6 to –32.7‰, and multiple regression analysis showed that 46% of the variability in mangrove d13C composition could be explained by the differ­ences in dissolved inorganic nitrogen, soluble reac­tive phosphorus, and sulfide porewater concentra­tions. 15N discrimination in mangrove species ranged from –0.1 to 7.7‰, and porewater N, salin­ity, and leaf N:Pa ratios accounted for 41% of this variability in mangrove leaves. The increase in soil P availability reduced 15N discrimination due to higher N demand. Scrub mangroves (<1.5 m tall) are more water-use efficient, as indicated by higher d13C; and have greater nutrient use efficiency ratios of P than do tall mangroves (5 to 10 m tall) existing in sites with greater soil P concentrations. The high variability of mangrove d13C and d15N across these resource and regulator gradients could be a con­founding factor obscuring the linkages between mangrove wetlands and estuarine food webs. These results support the hypothesis that landscape fac­tors may control mangrove structure and function, so that nutrient biogeochemistry and mangrove-based food webs in adjacent estuaries should ac­count for watershed-specific organic inputs.

Oxygen isotope ratios of cellulose-derived phenylglucosazone: An improved paleoclimate indicator of environmental water and relative humidity

Oxygen atoms within fossil wood provide high-resolution records of climate change, particularly for the Quaternary. However, current analysis methods of fossil cellulose do not differentiate between different positions of the oxygen atoms. Here, we propose a refinement to tree-cellulose paleoclimatology modeling, using the cellulose-derived compound phenylglucosazone as the isotopic substrate. Stem samples from trees were collected at northern latitudes as low as 24°37′N and as high as 69°00′N. We extracted stem water and cellulose from each stem sample and analyzed them for their 18O content. In addition, we derived the cellulose to phenylglucosazone, a compound which lacks the oxygen attached to the second carbon of the cellulose–glucose moieties. Oxygen isotope analysis of phenylglucosazone allowed us to calculate the 18O content of the oxygen attached to the second carbon of the cellulose–glucose moieties. By way of these analyses, we tested two hypotheses: first, that the 18O content of the oxygen attached to second carbon will more closely reflect the 18O content of the stem water, and will not resemble the 18O content of either cellulose or its derivative phenylglucosazone. Second, tree-ring models that incorporate the variable oxygen isotope fractionation shown here and elsewhere are more accurate than those that do not. Our first hypothesis was rejected on the basis that the oxygen isotope ratios of the oxygen attached to the second carbon of the glucose moieties had a noisy isotopic signal with a large standard deviation and gave the poorest correlation with the oxygen isotope ratios of stem water. Related to this isotopic noise, we observed that the correlation between oxygen isotope ratios of phenylglucosazone with both stem water and relative humidity were higher than those observed for cellulose. Our hypothesis about tree-ring models which account for changes in the oxygen isotopic fractionation during cellulose synthesis was consistent only for the 18O content of phenylglucosazone. We showed that the tree-ring model based on the 18O content of phenylglucosazone was an improvement over existing models that are based on whole cellulose. Additionally, this approach may be used in other cellulose based archives such as peat deposits and lacustrine sediments.

Response of diatom assemblages to 130 years of environmental change in Florida Bay (USA)

Coastal ecosystems around the world are constantly changing in response to interacting shifts in climate and land and water use by expanding human populations. The development of agricultural and urban areas in South Florida significantly modified its hydrologic regime and influenced rates of environmental change in wetlands and adjacent estuaries. This study describes changes in diatom species composition through time from four sediment cores collected across Florida Bay, for the purposes of detecting periods of major shifts in assemblage structure and identifying major drivers of those changes. We examined the magnitude of diatom assemblage change in consecutive 2-cm samples of the 210Pb-dated cores, producing a record of the past ~130 years. Average assemblage dissimilarity among successive core samples was ~30%, while larger inter-sample and persistent differences suggest perturbations or directional shifts. The earliest significant compositional changes occurred in the late 1800s at Russell Bank, Bob Allen Bank and Ninemile Bank in the central and southwestern Bay, and in the early 1900s at Trout Cove in the northeast. These changes coincided with the initial westward redirection of water from Lake Okeechobee between 1881 and 1894, construction of several canals between 1910 and 1915, and building the Florida Overseas Railroad between 1906 and 1916. Later significant assemblage restructurings occurred in the northeastern and central Bay in the late 1950s, early 1960s and early 1970s, and in the southwestern Bay in the 1980s. These changes coincide with climate cycles driving increased hurricane frequency in the 1960s, followed by a prolonged dry period in the 1970s to late 1980s that exacerbated the effects of drainage operations in the Everglades interior. Changes in the diatom assemblage structure at Trout Cove and Ninemile Bank in the 1980s correspond to documented eutrophication and a large seagrass die-off. A gradual decrease in the abundance of freshwater to brackish water taxa in the cores over ~130 years implies that freshwater deliveries to Florida Bay were much greater prior to major developments on the mainland. Salinity, which was quantitatively reconstructed at these sites, had the greatest effect on diatom communities in Florida Bay, but other factors—often short-lived, natural and anthropogenic in nature—also played important roles in that process. Studying the changes in subfossil diatom communities over time revealed important environmental information that would have been undetected if reconstructing only one water quality variable.

A 2,500-year record of environmental change in Highlands Hammock State Park (Central Florida, U.S.A.) inferred from siliceous microfossils

Analysis of siliceous microfossils of a 79 cm long peat sediment core from Highlands Hammock State Park, Florida, revealed distinct changes in the local hydrology during the past 2,500 years. The coring site is a seasonally inundated forest where water availability is directly influenced by precipitation. Diatoms, chrysophyte statospores, sponge remains and phytoliths were counted in 25 samples throughout the core. Based on the relative abundance of diatom species, the record was subdivided into four diatom assemblage zones, which mainly reflect the hydrological state of the study site. An age-depth relationship based on radiocarbon measurements of eight samples reveals a basal age of the core of approximately 2,500 cal. yrs. BP. Two significant changes of diatom assemblage composition were found that could be linked to both, natural and anthropogenic influences. At 700 cal. yrs. BP, the diatom record documents a shift from tychoplanktonicAulacoseira species to epiphytic Eunotia species, indicating a shortening of the hydroperiod, i.e. the time period during which a wetland is covered by water. This transition was interpreted as being triggered by natural climate change. In the middle of the twentieth century a second major turnover took place, at that time however, as a result of human impact on the park hydrology through the construction of dams and canals close to the study site.

Four essays of environmental risk-mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers' preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers' choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

A State and Territorial Survey Regarding Utilization of Environmental Health Shelter Assessments during Disasters, and a Secondary Analysis of Available Shelter Assessment Data

Disasters are complex events characterized by damage to key infrastructure and population displacements into disaster shelters. Assessing the living environment in shelters during disasters is a crucial health security concern. Until now, jurisdictional knowledge and preparedness on those assessment methods, or deficiencies found in shelters is limited. A cross-sectional survey (STUSA survey) ascertained knowledge and preparedness for those assessments in all 50 states, DC, and 5 US territories. Descriptive analysis of overall knowledge and preparedness was performed. Fisher’s exact statistics analyzed differences between two groups: jurisdiction type and population size. Two logistic regression models analyzed earthquakes and hurricane risks as predictors of knowledge and preparedness. A convenience sample of state shelter assessments records (n=116) was analyzed to describe environmental health deficiencies found during selected events. Overall, 55 (98%) of jurisdictions responded (states and territories) and appeared to be knowledgeable of these assessments (states 92%, territories 100%, p = 1.000), and engaged in disaster planning with shelter partners (states 96%, territories 83%, p = 0.564). Few had shelter assessment procedures (states 53%, territories 50%, p = 1.000); or training in disaster shelter assessments (states 41%, 60% territories, p = 0.638). Knowledge or preparedness was not predicted by disaster risks, population size, and jurisdiction type in neither model. Knowledge: hurricane (Adjusted OR 0.69, 95% C.I. 0.06-7.88); earthquake (OR 0.82, 95% C.I. 0.17-4.06); and both risks (OR 1.44, 95% C.I. 0.24-8.63); preparedness model: hurricane (OR 1.91, 95% C.I. 0.06-20.69); earthquake (OR 0.47, 95% C.I. 0.7-3.17); and both risks (OR 0.50, 95% C.I. 0.06-3.94). Environmental health deficiencies documented in shelter assessments occurred mostly in: sanitation (30%); facility (17%); food (15%); and sleeping areas (12%); and during ice storms and tornadoes. More research is needed in the area of environmental health assessments of disaster shelters, particularly, in those areas that may provide better insight into the living environment of all shelter occupants and potential effects in disaster morbidity and mortality. Also, to evaluate the effectiveness and usefulness of these assessments methods and the data available on environmental health deficiencies in risk management to protect those at greater risk in shelter facilities during disasters.