Two-polar growth strategy in Myanmar : seeking "high" and "balanced" development

The Thein Sein government of Myanmar seeks higher and balanced economic growth. This is a challenge for the government since some economic literature identifies a trade-off between higher economic growth and better regional equality, especially for countries in the early stages of development. In this paper, we propose a two-polar growth strategy as one that includes both "high" and "balanced" growth. The first growth pole is Yangon, and the second is Mandalay. Nay Pyi Taw, the national capital, will develop as an administrative centre, not as an economic or commercial one. We also propose border development with enhanced connectivity with richer neighboring countries as a complementary strategy to the two growth poles. Effects of the two-polar growth strategy with border development are tested using a Geographical Simulation Model (GSM).

Service liberalization in Lao PDR

Service liberalization is emerging as a high-priority issue in various parts of the world for mega free trade agreements as well as national policy. Lao PDR is no exception. To examine the level of service liberalization in Lao PDR, we first compare the Hoekman Indices of Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam on the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS 8). Lao PDR has lower commitment in many subsectors. In particular, we list the sectors in which Lao PDR made a lower commitment than Cambodia and Vietnam in Mode 3 (supply of services through commercial establishments abroad). Second, a simulation analysis using the Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) from the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) reveals how service liberalization benefits the economic development of Lao PDR. The two analyses clearly reveal that it is essential for Lao PDR to promote further service liberalization since such liberalization will contribute to the country's development.

Economic impacts of the Kra Canal : an application of the automatic calculation of sea distances by a GIS

A plan to construct a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand has been proposed many times since the 17th century. The proposed canal would become an alternative route to the over-crowded Straits of Malacca. In this paper, we attempt to utilize a Geographical Information System (GIS) to calculate the realistic distances between ports that would be affected by the Kra Canal and to estimate the economic impact of the canal using a simulation model based on spatial economics. We find that China, India, Japan, and Europe gain the most from the construction of the canal, besides Thailand. On the other hand, the routes through the Straits of Malacca are largely beneficial to Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, besides Singapore. Thus, it is beneficial for all ASEAN member countries that the Kra Canal and the Straits of Malacca coexist and complement one another.

An investigation of the performance of a new Mechanical thrombectomy device using Bond Graph modelling: application to the extraction of blood clots in the middle cerebral artery

A number of thrombectomy devices using a variety of methods have now been developed to facilitate clot removal. We present research involving one such experimental device recently developed in the UK, called a ‘GP’ Thrombus Aspiration Device (GPTAD). This device has the potential to bring about the extraction of a thrombus. Although the device is at a relatively early stage of development, the results look encouraging. In this work, we present an analysis and modeling of the GPTAD by means of the bond graph technique; it seems to be a highly effective method of simulating the device under a variety of conditions. Such modeling is useful in optimizing the GPTAD and predicting the result of clot extraction. The aim of this simulation model is to obtain the minimum pressure necessary to extract the clot and to verify that both the pressure and the time required to complete the clot extraction are realistic for use in clinical situations, and are consistent with any experimentally obtained data. We therefore consider aspects of rheology and mechanics in our modeling.

Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: A case for reinforcing scenario design

This paper shows the role that some foresight tools, such as scenario design, may play in exploring the future impacts of global challenges in our contemporary Society. Additionally, it provides some clues about how to reinforce scenario design so that it displays more in-depth analysis without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages. Since its inception in the early seventies, scenario design has become one of the most popular foresight tools used in several fields of knowledge. Nevertheless, its wide acceptance has not been seconded by the urban planning academic and professional realm. In some instances, scenario design is just perceived as a story telling technique that generates oversimplified future visions without the support of rigorous and sound analysis. As a matter of fact, the potential of scenario design for providing more in-depth analysis and for connecting with quantitative methods has been generally missed, giving arguments away to its critics. Based on these premises, this document tries to prove the capability of scenario design to anticipate the impacts of complex global challenges and to do it in a more analytical way. These assumptions are tested through a scenario design exercise which explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm (SD) and its implications in the Spanish urban development model. In order to reinforce the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument to urban planners, three sets of implications –functional, parametric and spatial— are displayed to provide substantial and in-depth information for policy makers. This study shows some major findings. First, it is feasible to set up a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. Second, there are opportunities for innovating in the Spanish urban planning processes and city governance models. Third, as a foresight tool, scenario design can be substantially reinforced if proper efforts are made to display functional, parametric and spatial implications generated by the scenarios. Fourth, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, formulating visions, fostering participation and building networks

Safety assessment of underground vehicles passing over highly resilient straight tracks in the presence of a broken rail

In this paper, vehicle-track interaction for a new slab track design, conceived to reduce noise and vibration levels has been analyzed, assessing the derailment risk for trains running on curved track when encountering a broken rail. Two different types of rail fastening systems with different elasticities have been analysed and compared. Numerical methods were used in order to simulate the dynamic behaviour of the train-track interaction. Multibody system (MBS) modelling techniques were combined with techniques based on the finite element method (FEM). MBS modelling was used for modelling the vehicle and FEM for simulating the elastic track. The simulation model was validated by comparing simulated results to experimental data obtained in field testing. During the simulations various safety indices, characteristic of derailment risk, were analysed. The simulations realised at the maximum running velocity of 110 km/h showed a similar behaviour for several track types. When reducing the running speed, the safety indices worsened for both cases. Although the worst behaviour was observed for the track with a greater elasticity, in none of the simulations did a derailment occur when running over the broken rail.

Improved design of an overhead rail current conductor for application in underground lines

Overhead rail current collector systems for railway traction offer certain features, such as low installation height and reduced maintenance, which make them predominantly suitable for use in underground train infrastructures. Due to the increased demands of modern catenary systems and higher running speeds of new vehicles, a more capable design of the conductor rail is needed. A new overhead conductor rail has been developed and its design has been patented [13]. Modern simulation and modelling techniques were used in the development approach. The new conductor rail profile has a dynamic behaviour superior to that of the system currently in use. Its innovative design permits either an increase of catenary support spacing or a higher vehicle running speed. Both options ensure savings in installation or operating costs. The simulation model used to optimise the existing conductor rail profile included both a finite element model of the catenary and a three-dimensional multi-body system model of the pantograph. The contact force that appears between pantograph and catenary was obtained in simulation. A sensitivity analysis of the key parameters that influence in catenary dynamics was carried out, finally leading to the improved design.

Pantograph wear assesment in overhead conductor rail systems

Wear is the phenomenon that determines the lifetime of the collector strips. Since wear is an inevitable effect on pantograph-catenary systems, it is necessary to determine optimal operating conditions that can mitigate its effects. In this study we have performed a simulation model of the pantograph-overhead conductor rail system which allows the evaluation of the dynamic conditions of the system through the contact force. With these results we have made an evaluation of the quality of current collection, a calculation of the pantograph wear and a definition of the optimal operation conditions of the pantograph-overhead conductor rail system.

Integrated methodology for assessing the effects of geomorphological river restoration on fish habitat and riparian vegetation

Changes in the geomorphology of rivers have serious repercussions, causing losses in the dynamics and naturalness of their forms, going in many cases, from a type of meandering channel, with constant erosion and sedimentation processes, to a channelized narrow river with rigid and stable margins, where the only possibility of movement occurs in the vertical, causing the only changes in channel geometry occur in the river bed. On the other hand, these changes seriously affect the naturalness of the banks, preventing the development of riparian vegetation and reducing the cross connectivity of the riparian corridor. Common canalizations and disconnections of meanders increase the slope, and therefore speed, resulting in processes of regressive erosion, effect increased as a result of the narrowing of the channel and the concentration of flows. This process of incision may turn the flood plain to be "hung", being completely disconnected from the water table, with important consequences for vegetation. As an example of the effects of these changes, it has been chosen the case of the Arga River The Arga river has been channelized and rectified, as it passes along the meander RamalHondo and Soto Gil (Funes, Navarra). The effects on fish habitat and riparian vegetation by remeandering the Arga River are presented. and Ttwo very contrasting situationsrestoration hypothesis, in terms of geomorphology concerns, have been established to assess the effects these changes have on the habitat of one of the major fish species in the area (Luciobabus graellsii) and on the riparian vegetation. To accomplish this goal, it has been necessary to used the a digital elevation model provided by LIDAR flight, bathymetric data, flow data, as inputs, and a hydraulic simulation model 2D (Infoworks RS). The results obtained not only helped to evaluate the effects of the past alterations of geomorphologic characteristics, but also to predict fish and vegetation habitat responses to this type of changes.

Sustainability of irrigated farming systems in a Tunisian region: A recursive stochastic programming analysis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of farm irrigation systems in the Cébalat district in northern Tunisia. It addressed the challenging topic of sustainable agriculture through a bio-economic approach linking a biophysical model to an economic optimisation model. A crop growth simulation model (CropSyst) was used to build a database to determine the relationships between agricultural practices, crop yields and environmental effects (salt accumulation in soil and leaching of nitrates) in a context of high climatic variability. The database was then fed into a recursive stochastic model set for a 10-year plan that allowed analysing the effects of cropping patterns on farm income, salt accumulation and nitrate leaching. We assumed that the long-term sustainability of soil productivity might be in conflict with farm profitability in the short-term. Assuming a discount rate of 10% (for the base scenario), the model closely reproduced the current system and allowed to predict the degradation of soil quality due to long-term salt accumulation. The results showed that there was more accumulation of salt in the soil for the base scenario than for the alternative scenario (discount rate of 0%). This result was induced by applying a higher quantity of water per hectare for the alternative as compared to a base scenario. The results also showed that nitrogen leaching is very low for the two discount rates and all climate scenarios. In conclusion, the results show that the difference in farm income between the alternative and base scenarios increases over time to attain 45% after 10 years.

Assessing agriculture-water relationships: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach.

This paper aims at developing a simulation framework to jointly assess agricultural and water issues. While the strong linkages between water, food, and the environment call for an integrated and multidisciplinary modelling approach, a complete and consistent modelling system to evaluate food-water relationships in Europe was missing so far. The spatial economic simulation model for agriculture CAPRI, which comprises a set of environmental indicators to assess food-environment interrelations within European regions, has been extended to account for food-water links. This modelling framework enables simulating the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production at the EU regional level, as well as looking at the sustainable use of water, the implementation of water policies or the integration of water issues in the Common Agricultural Policy

Analysis of WCET in an experimental satellite software development.

This paper describes a case study in WCET analysis of an on-board spacecraft software system. The attitude control system of UPMSat-2, an experimental micro-satellite which is scheduled to be launched in 2013, is used for an experiment on analysing the worst-case execution time of code automatically generated from a Simulink model. In order to properly test the code, a hardware-in-the-loop configuration with a simulation model of the spacecraft environment has been used as a test bench. The code has been analysed with RapiTime, with some modifications to the original instrumentation routines, in order to take into account the particularities of the test configuration. Results from the experiment are described and commented in the paper.

Low vertical transfer rates of carbon inferred from radiocarbon analysis in an Amazon Podzol

Hydromorphic Podzol soils in the Amazon Basin generally support low-stature forests with some of the lowest amounts of aboveground net primary production (NPP) in the region. However, they can also exhibit large values of belowground NPP that can contribute significantly to the total annual inputs of organic matter into the soil. These hydromorphic Podzol soils also exhibit a horizon rich in organic matter at around 1?2m depth, presumably as a result of eluviation of dissolved organic matter and sesquioxides of Fe and Al. Therefore, it is likely that these ecosystems store large quantities of carbon by (1) large amounts of C inputs to soils dominated by their high levels of fine-root production, (2) stabilization of organic matter in an illuviation horizon due to significant vertical transfers of C. To assess these ideas we studied soil carbon dynamics using radiocarbon in two adjacent Amazon forests growing on contrasting soils: a hydromorphic Podzol and a well-drained Alisol supporting a high-stature terra firme forest. Our measurements showed similar concentrations of C and radiocarbon in the litter layer and the first 5 cm of the mineral soil for both sites. This result is consistent with the idea that the hydromorphic Podzol soil has similar soil C storage and cycling rates compared to the well-drained Alisol that supports a more opulent vegetation. However, we found important differences in carbon dynamics and transfers along the vertical profile. At both soils, we found similar radiocarbon concentrations in the subsoil, but the carbon released after incubating soil samples presented radiocarbon concentrations of recent origin in the Alisol, but not in the Podzol. There were no indications of incorporation of C fixed after 1950 in the illuvial horizon of the Podzol. With the aid of a simulation model, we predicted that only a minor fraction (1.7 %) of the labile carbon decomposed in the topsoil is transferred to the subsoil of the Podzol, while this proportional transfer is about 30% in the Alisol. Furthermore, our estimates were 8 times lower than previous estimations of vertical C transfers in Amazon Podzols, and question the validity of these previous estimations for all Podzols within the Amazon Basin. Our results also challenge our previous ideas about the genesis of these particular soils and suggest that either they are not true Podzols or the podzolization processes had already stopped.

El régimen de humedad de los suelos de la España peninsular

El objeto de la Tesis es el régimen de humedad de los suelos de la España Peninsular, cuya determinación a partir de datos climáticos se ha realizado de acuerdo con la metodología incluida en la taxonomía norteamericana de suelos (Soil Survey StafF 1975, 1994). Esta metodología presenta algunas indefiniciones, que se pretenden solventar. La investigación ha consistido en la clasificación de los regímenes de humedad del suelo de la España Peninsular y su representación cartográfica. Se han considerado varios métodos de determinación de la evapotranspiración y varios modelos de estimación del régimen de humedad. La clasificación numérica de los regímenes de 467 localidades ha permitido su agrupamiento en clases y su subdivisión natural. El contraste de esta información con la aportada por la cartografía de series de vegetación, mediante un sistema de información geográfica tipo reticular, ha servido para afinar los mapas. El resultado revela que un modelo modificado sirve para subsanar las indefiniciones y posibilita la adaptación de los grupos a las condiciones naturales. SUMMARY The soil moisture regime defined by the Soil Taxonomy (Soil Survey StafF, 1975, 1994) has been determined by Newhall's simulation model from climatic data. This classification presents some diffículties as gaps and overlaps in the definitions, that we have tried to solve. The soil moisture regimes have been determined by different methods and the results have been classified and mapped. We have compared differents methods of evapotranspiration estimation. A simple modification of Newhall's model matchs better the natural conditions of Spain when comparing with the potential vegatation. A ráster geographical information system has been used to overlay the information layers. As result of the numerical classification of soil moistures regimes of 467 sites, the regimes have been grouped in classes adapted to the natural conditions of Spain. We have compared the results with the potential vegetation map in order to tune the soil moisture regime boundaries. We propose a new soil moisture regimes classification divided in two categories. This classification is adapted to Spanish natural conditions.

Towards measuring the complexity of introducing semantics into a company

The Semantics Difficulty Model (SDM) is a model that measures the difficult of introducing semantics technology into a company. SDM manages three descriptions of stages, which we will refer to as ?snapshots?: a company semantic snapshot, data snapshot and semantic application snapshot. Understanding a priory the complexity of introducing semantics into a company is important because it allows the organization to take early decisions, thus saving time and money, mitigating risks and improving innovation, time to market and productivity. SDM works by measuring the distance between each initial snapshot and its reference models (the company semantic snapshots reference model, data snapshots reference model, and the semantic application snapshots reference model) with Euclidian distances. The difficulty level will be "not at all difficult" when the distance is small, and becomes "extremely difficult" when the the distance is large. SDM has been tested experimentally with 2000 simulated companies with arrangements and several initial stages. The output is measured by five linguistic values: "not at all difficult, slightly difficult, averagely difficult, very difficult and extremely difficult". As the preliminary results of our SDM simulation model indicate, transforming a search application into integrated data from different sources with semantics is a "slightly difficult", in contrast with data and opinion extraction applications for which it is "very difficult".