A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Exposure and genotoxicity assessment methodologies: the case of formaldehyde occupational exposure

Formaldehyde (FA) ranks 25th in the overall U.S. chemical production, with more than 5 million tons produced each year. Given its economic importance and widespread use, many people are exposed to FA occupationally. Recently, based on the correlation with nasopharyngeal cancer in humans, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) confirmed the classification of FA as a Group I substance. Considering the epidemiological evidence of a potential association with leukemia, the IARC has concluded that FA can cause this lymphoproliferative disorder. Our group has developed a method to assess the exposure and genotoxicity effects of FA in two different occupational settings, namely FAbased resins production and pathology and anatomy laboratories. For exposure assessment we applied simultaneously two different techniques of air monitoring: NIOSH Method 2541 and Photo Ionization Detection Equipment with simultaneously video recording. Genotoxicity effects were measured by cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus assay in peripheral blood lymphocytes and by micronucleus test in exfoliated oral cavity epithelial cells, both considered target cells. The two exposure assessment techniques show that in the two occupational settings peak exposures are still occurring. There was a statistical significant increase in the micronucleus mean of epithelial cells and peripheral lymphocytes of exposed individuals compared with controls. In conclusion, the exposure and genotoxicity effects assessment methodologies developed by us allowed to determine that these two occupational settings promote exposure to high peak FA concentrations and an increase in the micronucleus mean of exposed workers. Moreover, the developed techniques showed promising results and could be used to confirm and extend the results obtained by the analytical techniques currently available.

Gestão do risco em mercados de energia eléctrica recorrendo ao VaR por simulação de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.

O uso do smartphone na avaliação da dorsiflexão da tibiotársica, do passo rápido anterior/lateral/posterior e da marcha em idosos

Introdução: A correta avaliação das capacidades do idoso será fundamental na diminuição do risco de queda inerente ao envelhecimento. Os Smartphones são uma boa ferramenta para a avaliação das capacidades em idosos. Objetivo: Verificar se o smartphone é uma ferramenta de avaliação do ângulo de dorsiflexão ativa da tibiotársica (Dors. TT) e em diferentes parâmetros relacionados com a marcha. ; Métodos: Estudo transversal correlacional, com amostra composta por 27 indivíduos com mais de 60 anos. Procedeu-se à recolha de dados através de um sistema de análise cinemática em 3D com conexão a uma plataforma de forças e de uma aplicação para Smartphone (Fraunhofer®, Porto, Portugal), de forma a verificar a funcionalidade desta última. As variáveis medidas foram a Dors. TT; e todas a variáveis relacionadas com a marcha. Resultados: A dors. TT apresentou uma correlação forte positiva (rs=0,8; p<0,001) entre os dados dos dois instrumentos, assim como no balanço pélvico (rp=0,8; p<0,001), na velocidade na marcha (rp=0,7; p<0,001) e no nº de passos posteriores (rs=0,8; p<0,001). Observou-se uma correlação moderada positiva na duração do passo direito, na duração do passo, na duração da passada, na cadência, no comprimento do passo esq., no comprimento do passo e no deslocamento lateral da pélvis (rp=0,6; p≤0.008). Na percentagem da fase de apoio (%FA) (rs =-0.6; p= 0.007) e na medição da cadência lateral (rs =-0.4; p= 0.042) observou-se uma correlação moderada negativa e na cad. post. (rs=-0,7; p<0,001) uma correlação forte negativa. Conclusão: A aplicação para Smartphone parece ser uma ferramenta útil para avaliar corretamente o ângulo de dorsiflexão da tibiotársica, a contagem do número de passos no sentido posterior, o balanço pélvico e a velocidade. Contudo, necessita ser reajustada para as outras variáveis.

Paranoia in the General Population : a revised version of the General Paranoia Scale for Adults

Background: Paranoid ideation has been regarded as a cognitive and a social process used as a defence against perceived threats. According to this perspective, paranoid ideation can be understood as a process extending across the normal-pathological continuum. Methods: In order to refine the construct of paranoid ideation and to validate a measure of paranoia, 906 Portuguese participants from the general population and 91 patients were administered the General Paranoia Scale (GPS), and two conceptual models (one - and tridimensional) were compared through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Results: Results from the CFA of the GPS confirmed a different model than the one-dimensional model proposed by Fenigstein and Vanable, which com-prised three dimensions (mistrust thoughts, persecutory ideas, and self-deprecation). This alternative model presented a better fit and increased sensitivity when compared with the one-dimensional model. Further data analysis of the scale revealed that the GPS is an adequate assessment tool for adults, with good psychometric characteristics and high internal consistency. Conclusion: The model proposed in the current work leads to further refinements and enrichment of the construct of paranoia in different populations, allowing the assessment of three dimensions of paranoia and the risk of clinical paranoia in a single measure for the general population.

Toxicological Assessment of Coated versus Uncoated Rubber Granulates Obtained from Used Tires for Use in Sport Facilities

Reuse of tire crumb in sport facilities is currently a very cost-effective waste management measure. Considering that incorporation of the waste materials in artificial turf would be facilitated if the rubber materials were already colored green, coatings were specifically developed for this purpose. This paper presents an experimental toxicological and environmental assessment aimed at comparing the obtained emissions to the environment in terms of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), heavy metals, and ecotoxicity for coated and noncoated rubber granulates. This study is a comprehensive evaluation of the major potential critical factors related with the release of all of these classes of pollutants because previous studies were not systematically performed. It was concluded that between the two types of coatings tested, one is particularly effective in reducing emissions to the environment, simultaneously meeting the requirements of adherence and color stability.

Assessment of workers’ exposure to Aflatoxin B1 in a Portuguese waste industry

Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is considered by different International Agencies as a genotoxic and potent hepatocarcinogen. However, despite the fact that the fungi producing this compound are detected in some work environments, AFB1 is rarely monitored in occupational settings. The aim of the present investigation was to assess exposure to AFB1 of workers from one Portuguese waste company located in the outskirt of Lisbon. Occupational exposure assessment to AFB1 was done with a biomarker of internal dose that measures AFB1 in the serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Forty-one workers from the waste company were enrolled in this study (26 from sorting; 9 from composting; 6 from incineration). A control group (n = 30) was also considered in order to know the AFB1 background levels for the Portuguese population. All the workers showed detectable levels of AFB1 with values ranging from 2.5ng ml−1 to 25.9ng ml−1 with a median value of 9.9±5.4ng ml−1. All of the controls showed values below the method’s detection limit. Results obtained showed much higher (8-fold higher) values when compared with other Portuguese settings already studied, such as poultry and swine production. Besides this mycotoxin, other mycotoxins are probably present in this occupational setting and this aspect should be taken into consideration for the risk assessment process due to possible synergistic reactions. The data obtained suggests that exposure to AFB1 occurs in a waste management setting and claims attention for the need of appliance of preventive and protective safety measures.

A perspective on LCA application in site remediation services: critical review of challenges

The remediation of contaminated sites supports the goal of sustainable development but may also have environmental impacts at a local, regional and global scale. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has increasingly been used in order to support site remediation decision-making. This review article discusses existing LCA methods and proposed models focusing on critical decisions and assumptions of the LCA application to site remediation activities. It is concluded that LCA has limitations as an adequate holistic decisionmaking tool since spatial and temporal differentiation of non-global impacts assessment is a major hurdle in site remediation LCA. Moreover, a consequential LCA perspective should be adopted when the different remediation services to be compared generate different site’s physical states, displacing alternative post-remediation scenarios. The environmental effects of the post-remediation stage of the site is generally disregarded in the past site remediation LCA studies and such exclusion may produce misleading conclusions and misdirected decision-making. In addition, clear guidance accepted by all stakeholders on remediation capital equipment exclusion and on dealing with multifunctional processes should be developed for site remediation LCA applications.

Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach.

Short Assessment of Health Literacy for Portuguese-speaking Adults

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a short health literacy assessment tool for Portuguese-speaking adults. METHODS: The Short Assessment of Health Literacy for Portuguese-speaking Adults is an assessment tool which consists of 50 items that assess an individual's ability to correctly pronounce and understand common medical terms. We evaluated the instrument's psychometric properties in a convenience sample of 226 Brazilian older adults. Construct validity was assessed by correlating the tool scores with years of schooling, self-reported literacy, and global cognitive functioning. Discrimination validity was assessed by testing the tool's accuracy in detecting inadequate health literacy, defined as failure to fully understand standard medical prescriptions. RESULTS: Moderate to high correlations were found in the assessment of construct validity (Spearman's coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.76). The instrument showed adequate internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.93) and adequate test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.95). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for detection of inadequate health literacy was 0.82. A version consisting of 18 items was tested and showed similar psychometric properties. CONCLUSIONS: The instrument developed showed good validity and reliability in a sample of Brazilian older adults. It can be used in research and clinical settings for screening inadequate health literacy.

Risk criteria in occupational environments: critical overview and discussion

The current work can be seen as a starting point for the discussion of the problematic on risk acceptance criteria in occupational environments. Some obstacles to the quantitative acceptance criteria formulation and use were analyzed. A look to the long tradition of major hazards accidents was also performed. This work shows that organizations can have several difficulties in acceptance criteria formulation and that the use of pre-defined acceptance criteria in risk assessment methodologies can be inadequate in some cases. It is urgent to define guidelines that can help organizations in the formulation of risk acceptance criteria for occupational environments.

Fungal burden in waste industry: an occupational risk to be solved

High loads of fungi have been reported in different types of waste management plants. This study intends to assess fungal contamination in one waste-sorting plant before and after cleaning procedures in order to analyze their effectiveness. Air samples of 50 L were collected through an impaction method, while surface samples, taken at the same time, were collected by the swabbing method and subject to further macro- and microscopic observations. In addition, we collected air samples of 250 L using the impinger Coriolis μ air sampler (Bertin Technologies) at 300 L/min airflow rate in order to perform real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) amplification of genes from specific fungal species, namely Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus flavus complexes, as well as Stachybotrys chartarum species. Fungal quantification in the air ranged from 180 to 5,280 CFU m−3 before cleaning and from 220 to 2,460 CFU m−3 after cleaning procedures. Surfaces presented results that ranged from 29 × 104 to 109 × 104 CFU m−2 before cleaning and from 11 × 104 to 89 × 104 CFU m−2 after cleaning. Statistically significant differences regarding fungal load were not detected between before and after cleaning procedures. Toxigenic strains from A. flavus complex and S. chartarum were not detected by qPCR. Conversely, the A. fumigatus species was successfully detected by qPCR and interestingly it was amplified in two samples where no detection by conventional methods was observed. Overall, these results reveal the inefficacy of the cleaning procedures and that it is important to determine fungal burden in order to carry out risk assessment.

Occupational exposure to aflatoxin B1: new (old) occupational risk!

Contrary to fungi, exposure to mycotoxins is not usually identified as a risk factor present in occupational settings. This is probably due to the inexistence of limits regarding concentration of airborne mycotoxins, and also due to the fact that these compounds are rarely monitored in occupational environments. Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is the most prevalent aflatoxin and is associated with carcinogenicity, teratogenicity, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity but only a few studies examined exposure in occupational settings. Workers can be exposed to high airborne levels during certain operations in specific occupational settings. Aim of study: The study aimed to assess exposure to AFB1 in three settings: poultry, swine production and waste management.

Contributo da análise ergonómica do trabalho na avaliação do risco de lesões músculoesqueléticas ligadas ao trabalho

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no Trabalho

Genotoxic assessment in different exposure groups working with antineoplastic agents

Antioneoplastic drugs are widely used in treatment of cancer, and several studies suggest acute and long-term effects associated to antineoplastic drug exposures, namely associating workplace exposure with health effects. Cytokinesis blocked micronucleus (CBMN) assay is one promising short-term genotoxicity assays for human risk assessment and their combination is recommended to monitor populations chronically exposed to genotoxic agents. The aim of this investigation is the genotoxicity assessment in different professionals that handle cytostatics drugs. This research is case-control blinded study constituted by 46 non-exposed subjects and 44 workers that handle antineoplastic drugs, such as pharmacists, pharmacy technicians, and nurses. It was found statistically significant increases in the genotoxicity biomarkers in exposed comparising with controls (p<0.05). The findings address the need for regular biomonitoring of personnel occupationally exposed to these drugs, confirming to an enhanced health risk assessment.