Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

Performance of dental implants after staged sinus floor elevation procedures: 5-year results of a prospective study in partially edentulous patients

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the 5-year performance and success rate of titanium screw-type implants with the titanium plasma spray (TPS) or the sand-blasted, large grit, acid-etched (SLA) surface inserted in a two-stage sinus floor elevation (SFE) procedure in the posterior maxilla. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 59 delayed SFEs were performed in 56 patients between January 1997 and December 2001, using a composite graft with autogenous bone chips combined with deproteinized bovine bone mineral (DBBM) or synthetic porous beta-tricalcium phosphate (beta-TCP). After a healing period averaging 7.75 months, 111 dental implants were inserted. After an additional 8-14-week healing period, all implants were functionally loaded with cemented crowns or fixed partial dentures. The patients were recalled at 12 and 60 months for clinical and radiographic examination. RESULTS: One patient developed an acute infection in the right maxillary sinus after SFE and did not undergo implant therapy. Two of the 111 inserted implants had to be removed because of a developing atypical facial pain, and 11 implants were lost to follow-up and were considered drop-outs. The remaining 98 implants showed favorable clinical and radiographic findings at the 5-year examination. The peri-implant soft tissues were stable over time; the mean probing depths and mean attachment levels did not change during the follow-up period. The measurement of the bone crest levels (DIB values) indicated stability as well. Based on strict success criteria, all 98 implants were considered successfully integrated, resulting in a 5-year success rate of 98% (for TPS implants 89%, for SLA implants 100%). CONCLUSION: This prospective study assessing the performance of dental implants inserted after SFE demonstrated that titanium implants can achieve and maintain successful tissue integration with high predictability for at least 5 years of follow-up in carefully selected patients.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Afghanistan connection : heroin production, distribution, and consumption

Heroin prices are a reflection of supply and demand, and similar to any other market, profits motivate participation. The intent of this research is to examine the change in Afghan opium production due to political conflict affecting Europe’s heroin market and government policies. If the Taliban remain in power, or a new Afghan government is formed, the changes will affect the heroin market in Europe to a certain degree. In the heroin market, the degree of change is dependent on many socioeconomic forces such as law enforcement, corruption, and proximity to Afghanistan. An econometric model that examines the degree of these socioeconomic effects has not been applied to the heroin trade in Afghanistan before. This research uses a two-stage least squares econometric model to reveal the supply and demand of heroin in 36 different countries from the Middle East to Western Europe in 2008. An application of the two-stage least squares model to the heroin market in Europe will attempt to predict the socioeconomic consequences of Afghanistan opium production.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

ASTAXANTHIN PRODUCTION FROM HAEMATOCOCCUS PLUVIALIS UNDER VARIOUS LIGHT INTENSITIES AND CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS

The microalga Haematococcus pluvialis was cultivated in MES-volvox medium at various light intensities and CO2 concentrations. It was found that CO2 concentrations of 10 and 15%, in combination with high irradiance at initial pH =6.7, accelerate astaxanthin accumulation in H. pluvialis cells but obstruct cell growth. The purpose of this research study was to devise a one-stage process consisting of the simultaneous cultivation of H. pluvialis and astaxanthin production using high light intensity and high CO2 concentration. This could be achieved at 200 µE/m2s and 15% CO2 in growth medium at initial pH = 4.3. Compared to the traditional two-stage H. pluvialis cultivation system, this one-step process can save up to 8-9 days of astaxanthin production time. The astaxanthin content in H. pluvialis cells induced with high light intensity only or with a combination of high light intensity and high CO2 concentration had comparable astaxanthin content; 94 and 97 mg/g dry biomass, respectively. However, it was extremely low in nitrate-free medium at high irradiance alone or combined with high CO2 concentration, with an average value of 4 mg/g dry biomass. Cell density was 40% less in cultures under discontinuous illumination compared to continuous illumination. This process could serve as a microalgal CO2 mitigation system after further understanding of the CO2 fixation ability of H. pluvialis has been gained.

Separation of Cadmium from Zinc in the Purification Step of the Leaching Cycle

The purpose of this investigation is to determine the effect of the factors listed previously by conducting a series of tests that will indicate the ex­tent to which the purification is influenced by time, temperature, zinc oust size, zinc dust quantity, iron concentration, two stage precipitation, and aeration.

Displacement of a dental implant into the maxillary sinus: report of an unusual complication when performing staged sinus floor elevation procedures

Grafting of the maxillary sinus in both one- and two-stage protocols has become a highly predictable surgical technique for site development and for the placement of implants to support dentures. However, despite the predictability and high success rates reported for dental implants placed either simultaneously with or after a sinus floor elevation (SFE) procedure, complications have been reported. The aim of the following case report is to present an uncommon complication in a staged SFE procedure: the displacement of a dental implant into the maxillary sinus during insertion. As implant dentistry is becoming more and more popular among practitioners, and ever more demanding procedures for initial site development in jaws with bony deficiencies are being introduced into daily practice, the displacement of dental implants into the maxillary sinus during implant placement may become a more frequent complication. Management of this complication is presented, discussed, and evaluated in light of the current literature.

Ridge augmentation and maxillary sinus grafting with a biphasic calcium phosphate: histologic and histomorphometric observations

OBJECTIVES: This retrospective study reports on histologic and histomorphometric observations performed on human biopsies harvested from sites augmented exclusively by biphasic calcium phosphate [BCP: hydroxyapatite (HA)/ tricalcium phosphate (TCP) 60/40] and healed for a minimum of 6 months. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five patients benefited from three augmentation regimens (i.e.: one-stage lateral augmentation; two-stage lateral augmentation; and two-stage sinus grafting). In all patients, a degradable collagen membrane served as a cell-occlusive barrier. Core biopsies were obtained from lateral as from crestal aspects 6-10 months after augmentation surgeries. For histologic and histomorphometric evaluations, the non-decalcified tissue processing was performed. RESULTS: The histological examination of 11 biopsies showed graft particles frequently being bridged by the new bone, and a close contact between the graft particles and newly formed bone was seen in all samples. The mean percentages of newly formed bone, soft tissue compartment, and graft material were 38.8% (+/-5.89%), 41.75% (+/-6.08%), and 19.63% (+/-4.85%), respectively. Regarding bone-to-graft contact values, the percentage of bone coverage of graft particles for all biopsies ranged from 27.83% to 80.17%. The mean percentage of bone coverage was 55.39% (+/-13.03%). CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study demonstrated osteoconductivity scores for the BCP material (HA/TCP 60/40) in patients resembling those previously shown for grafting materials of xenogenic and alloplastic origin.

A General Solution Framework for Component-Commonality Problems

Component commonality - the use of the same version of a component across multiple products - is being increasingly considered as a promising way to offer high external variety while retaining low internal variety in operations. However, increasing commonality has both positive and negative cost effects, so that optimization approaches are required to identify an optimal commonality level. As components influence to a greater or lesser extent nearly every process step along the supply chain, it is not surprising that a multitude of diverging commonality problems is being investigated in literature, each of which are developing a specific algorithm designed for the respective commonality problem being considered. The paper on hand aims at a general framework which is flexible and efficient enough to be applied to a wide range of commonality problems. Such a procedure based on a two-stage graph approach is presented and tested. Finally, flexibility of the procedure is shown by customizing the framework to account for different types of commonality problems.

Variability in the prevalence of adult ADHD in treatment seeking substance use disorder patients: results from an international multi-center study exploring DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria

Background: Available studies vary in their estimated prevalence of attention deficit/hyperactivity disor-der (ADHD) in substance use disorder (SUD) patients, ranging from 2 to 83%. A better understanding ofthe possible reasons for this variability and the effect of the change from DSM-IV to DSM-5 is needed.Methods: A two stage international multi-center, cross-sectional study in 10 countries, among patientsform inpatient and outpatient addiction treatment centers for alcohol and/or drug use disorder patients. Atotal of 3558 treatment seeking SUD patients were screened for adult ADHD. A subsample of 1276 subjects,both screen positive and screen negative patients, participated in a structured diagnostic interview. 5AdultsResults: Prevalence of DSM-IV and DSM-5 adult ADHD varied for DSM-IV from 5.4% (CI 95%: 2.4–8.3) forHungary to 31.3% (CI 95%:25.2–37.5) for Norway and for DSM-5 from 7.6% (CI 95%: 4.1–11.1) for Hungary to32.6% (CI 95%: 26.4–38.8) for Norway. Using the same assessment procedures in all countries and centersresulted in substantial reduction of the variability in the prevalence of adult ADHD reported in previousstudies among SUD patients (2–83% → 5.4–31.3%). The remaining variability was partly explained byprimary substance of abuse and by country (Nordic versus non-Nordic countries). Prevalence estimatesfor DSM-5 were slightly higher than for DSM-IV.Conclusions: Given the generally high prevalence of adult ADHD, all treatment seeking SUD patientsshould be screened and, after a confirmed diagnosis, treated for ADHD since the literature indicates poorprognoses of SUD in treatment seeking SUD patients with ADHD.

The cement prosthesis-like spacer: an intermediate halt on the road to healing.

BACKGROUND Periprosthetic infections remain a devastating problem in the field of joint arthroplasty. In the following study, the results of a two-stage treatment protocol for chronic periprosthetic infections using an intraoperatively molded cement prosthesis-like spacer (CPLS) are presented. METHODS Seventy-five patients with chronically infected knee prosthesis received a two-stage revision procedure with the newly developed CPLS between June 2006 and June 2011. Based on the microorganism involved, patients were grouped into either easy to treat (ETT) or difficult to treat (DTT) and treated accordingly. Range of motion (ROM) and the knee society score (KSS) were utilized for functional assessment. RESULTS Mean duration of the CPLS implant in the DTT group was 3.6 months (range 3-5 months) and in the ETT group 1.3 months (range 0.7-2.5 months). Reinfection rates of the final prosthesis were 9.6% in the ETT and 8.3% in the DTT group with no significant difference between both groups regarding ROM or KSS (P = 0.87, 0.64, resp.). CONCLUSION The results show that ETT patients do not necessitate the same treatment protocol as DTT patients to achieve the same goal, emphasizing the need to differentiate between therapeutic regimes. We also highlight the feasibility of CLPS in two-stage protocols.

The International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study: background, methods and study population

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is an increasingly recognized comorbid condition in subjects with substance use disorders (SUDs). This paper describes the methods and study population of the International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study. Objectives of the IASP are to determine the prevalence of ADHD in adult treatment seeking patients with SUD in different countries and SUD populations, determine the reliability and validity of the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale V 1.1 (ASRS) as ADHD screening instrument in SUD populations, investigate the comorbidity profile of SUD patients with and without ADHD, compare risk factors and protective factors in SUD patients with and without a comorbid diagnosis of ADHD, and increase our knowledge about the relationship between ADHD and the onset and course of SUD. In this cross-sectional, multi-centre two stage study, subjects were screened for ADHD with the ASRS, diagnosed with the Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID), and evaluated for SUD, major depression, bipolar disorder, anti social personality disorder and borderline personality disorder. Three thousand five hundred and fifty-eight subjects from 10 countries were included. Of these 40.9% screened positive for ADHD. This is the largest international study on this population evaluating ADHD and comorbid disorders.

E2F1 AND TUMOR SUPPRESSION: THE ROLE OF p21, miRNAS, AND THE DNA DAMAGE RESPONSE

E2F1 is a multi-faceted protein that has roles in a number of important cellular processes including cell cycle regulation, apoptosis, proliferation, and the DNA damage response (DDR). Moreover, E2F1 has opposing roles in tumor development, acting as either a tumor suppressor or an oncogene depending on the context. In human cancer, E2F1 is often deregulated through aberrations in the Rb-p16INK4a-cyclin D1 pathway. In these studies we examined three mechanisms by which E2F1 might mediate its tumor suppressive properties: p21-induced senescence, miRNAs, and the DNA damage response. We found that E2F1 acts as a tumor suppressor in response to ras activation through a non-apoptotic mechanism requiring ARF and p53, but not p21. However, p21-loss inhibited two-stage chemical carcinogenesis in FVB mice. In response to E2F1 overexpression, we found that 22 miRNAs are differentially regulated in mouse epidermis, including let-7a, let-7c, and miR-301. Additionally, regulation of miR-301 involves binding of E2F1 to its promoter. Finally, our data indicate a role for E2F1 at sites of DNA damage requiring E2F1’s phosphorylation at serine 31 which may involve DNA repair. Further, this role in the DDR may affect tumor aggressiveness and multiplicity. In all, we have explored three mechanisms for E2F1-induced tumor suppression and identified E2F1’s role in the DNA damage response as a likely contributor to this phenomenon.

UNDERSTANDING NANOG'S ROLE IN CANCER BIOLOGY

Understanding Nanog’s Role in Cancer Biology Mark Daniel Badeaux Supervisory Professor Dean Tang, PhD The cancer stem cell model holds that tumor heterogeneity and population-level immortality are driven by a subset of cells within the tumor, termed cancer stem cells. Like embryonic or somatic stem cells, cancer stem cells are believed to possess self-renewal capacity and the ability to give rise to a multitude of varieties of daughter cell. Because of cancer’s implied connections to authentic stem cells, we screened a variety of prostate cancer cell lines and primary tumors in order to determine if any notable ‘stemness’ genes were expressed in malignant growths. We found a promising lead in Nanog, a central figure in maintaining embryonic stem cell pluripotency, and through a variety of experiments in which we diminished Nanog expression, found that it may play a significant role in prostate cancer development. We then created a transgenic mouse model in which we targeted Nanog expression to keratin 14-expressing in order to assess its potential contribution to tumorigenesis. We found a variety of developmental abnormalities and altered differentiation patterns in our model , but much to our chagrin we observed neither spontaneous tumor formation nor premalignant changes in these mice, but instead surprisingly found that high levels of Nanog expression inhibited tumor formation in a two-stage skin carcinogenesis model. We also noted a depletion of skin stem cell populations, which underlies the wound-healing defect our mice harbor as well. Gene expression analysis shows a reduction in c-Jun and Bmp5, two genes whose loss inhibits skin tumor development and reduces stem cell counts respectively. As we further explored Nanog’s activity in prostate cancer, it became apparent that the protein oftentimes was not expressed. Emboldened by the competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) hypothesis, we identified the Nanog 3’UTR as a regulator of the tumor suppressive microRNA 128a (miR-128a), which includes known oncogenes such as Bmi1 among its authentic targets. Future work will necessarily involve discerning instances in which Nanog mRNA is the biologically relevant molecule, as well as identifying additional mRNA species which may serve solely as a molecular sink for miR-128a.