Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

The influence of drinking pattern, at individual and aggregate levels, on alcohol-related negative consequences.

AIM: To determine the extent drinking patterns (at the individual and country level) are associated with alcohol-related consequences over and above the total alcohol the person consumes. METHODS: Hierarchical linear models were estimated based on general population surveys conducted in 18 countries participating in the GENACIS project. RESULTS: In general, the positive association between drinking pattern scores and alcohol-related consequences was found at both the individual and country levels, independent of volume of drinking. In addition, a significant interaction effect indicated that the more detrimental the country's drinking pattern, the less steep the association between the volume of drinking and its consequences. CONCLUSION: Drinking patterns have an independent impact on consequences over and above the relationship between volume and consequences.

Development of a New Process for Determining Design Year Traffic Demands, TR-528, 2007

Researchers should continuously ask how to improve the models we rely on to make financial decisions in terms of the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of roadways. This project presents an alternative tool that will supplement local decision making but maintain a full appreciation of the complexity and sophistication of today’s regional model and local traffic impact study methodologies. This alternative method is tailored to the desires of local agencies, which requested a better, faster, and easier way to evaluate land uses and their impact on future traffic demands at the sub-area or project corridor levels. A particular emphasis was placed on scenario planning for currently undeveloped areas. The scenario planning tool was developed using actual land use and roadway information for the communities of Johnston and West Des Moines, Iowa. Both communities used the output from this process to make regular decisions regarding infrastructure investment, design, and land use planning. The City of Johnston case study included forecasting future traffic for the western portion of the city within a 2,600-acre area, which included 42 intersections. The City of West Des Moines case study included forecasting future traffic for the city’s western growth area covering over 30,000 acres and 331 intersections. Both studies included forecasting a.m. and p.m. peak-hour traffic volumes based upon a variety of different land use scenarios. The tool developed took goegraphic information system (GIS)-based parcel and roadway information, converted the data into a graphical spreadsheet tool, allowed the user to conduct trip generation, distribution, and assignment, and then to automatically convert the data into a Synchro roadway network which allows for capacity analysis and visualization. The operational delay outputs were converted back into a GIS thematic format for contrast and further scenario planning. This project has laid the groundwork for improving both planning and civil transportation decision making at the sub-regional, super-project level.

Nonlinear analysis of human physical activity patterns in health and disease.

The reliable and objective assessment of chronic disease state has been and still is a very significant challenge in clinical medicine. An essential feature of human behavior related to the health status, the functional capacity, and the quality of life is the physical activity during daily life. A common way to assess physical activity is to measure the quantity of body movement. Since human activity is controlled by various factors both extrinsic and intrinsic to the body, quantitative parameters only provide a partial assessment and do not allow for a clear distinction between normal and abnormal activity. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the analysis of human activity pattern based on the definition of different physical activity time series with the appropriate analysis methods. The temporal pattern of postures, movements, and transitions between postures was quantified using fractal analysis and symbolic dynamics statistics. The derived nonlinear metrics were able to discriminate patterns of daily activity generated from healthy and chronic pain states.

A conserved transcript pattern in response to a specialist and a generalist herbivore.

Transcript patterns elicited in response to attack reveal, at the molecular level, how plants respond to aggressors. These patterns are fashioned both by inflicted physical damage as well as by biological components displayed or released by the attacker. Different types of attacking organisms might therefore be expected to elicit different transcription programs in the host. Using a large-scale DNA microarray, we characterized gene expression in damaged as well as in distal Arabidopsis thaliana leaves in response to the specialist insect, Pieris rapae. More than 100 insect-responsive genes potentially involved in defense were identified, including genes involved in pathogenesis, indole glucosinolate metabolism, detoxification and cell survival, and signal transduction. Of these 114 genes, 111 were induced in Pieris feeding, and only three were repressed. Expression patterns in distal leaves were markedly similar to those of local leaves. Analysis of wild-type and jasmonate mutant plants, coupled with jasmonate treatment, showed that between 67 and 84% of Pieris-regulated gene expression was controlled, totally or in part, by the jasmonate pathway. This was correlated with increased larval performance on the coronatine insensitive1 glabrous1 (coi1-1 gl1) mutant. Independent mutations in COI1 and GL1 led to a faster larval weight gain, but the gl1 mutation had relatively little effect on the expression of the insect-responsive genes examined. Finally, we compared transcript patterns in Arabidopis in response to larvae of the specialist P. rapae and to a generalist insect, Spodoptera littoralis. Surprisingly, given the complex nature of insect salivary components and reported differences between species, almost identical transcript profiles were observed. This study also provides a robustly characterized gene set for the further investigation of plant-insect interaction.

Structural Analysis of Aggregate Blends Using the SHRP Gyratory Compactor, MLR-95-8, 1996

The Iowa Department of Transportation (IDOT) received a Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) gyratory compactor in December 1994. Since then IDOT has been studying the ability of the compactor to analyze fundamental properties of aggregates such as shape, texture, and gradation by studying the volumetrics of the aggregate blends under a standard load using the SHRP gyratory compactor. This method of analyzing the volumetrics of aggregate blends is similar to SHRP's fine aggregate angularity procedure, which analyzes void levels in noncompacted aggregate blends, which in turn can be used to evaluate the texture or shape of aggregates, what SHRP refers to as angularity. Research is showing that by splitting the aggregate blend on the 2.36-mm (#8) sieve and analyzing the volumetrics or angularity of the separated blend, important fundamental properties can be determined. Most important is structure (the degree and location of aggregate interlock). In addition, analysis of the volumes of the coarse and fine portions can predict the voids in the mineral aggregate and the desired asphalt content. By predicting these properties, it can be determined whether the combined aggregate blend, when mixed with asphalt cement, will produce a mix with structural adequacy to carry the designed traffic load.

Importance of polyethylene thickness in total shoulder arthroplasty: a finite element analysis.

BACKGROUND: Articular surfaces reconstruction is essential in total shoulder arthroplasty. Because of the limited glenoid bone support, thin glenoid component could improve anatomical reconstruction, but adverse mechanical effects might appear. METHODS: With a numerical musculoskeletal shoulder model, we analysed and compared three values of thickness of a typical all-polyethylene glenoid component: 2, 4 (reference) and 6mm. A loaded movement of abduction in the scapular plane was simulated. We evaluated the humeral head translation, the muscle moment arms, the joint force, the articular contact pattern, and the polyethylene and cement stress. Findings Decreasing polyethylene thickness from 6 to 2mm slightly increased humeral head translation and muscle moment arms. This induced a small decreased of the joint reaction force, but important increase of stress within the polyethylene and the cement mantel. Interpretation The reference thickness of 4mm seems a good compromise to avoid stress concentration and joint stuffing.

Phenotypic virulence analysis of Pyricularia grisea isolates from Brazilian upland rice cultivars

Phenotypic virulence analysis was made on population of Pyricularia grisea isolates collected from 10 upland cultivars in three distinct rice breeding sites, with the objective of studying the degree of similarity in the phenotypic virulence among the isolates, the composition of races, and their virulence pattern. Sixteen races were identified based on the reaction type on eight standard international differentials, the predominant ones being IB9 and IB41. The virulence frequency was high on IAC47 and IAC165 among medium and early maturing cultivars, respectively. The frequency of isolates virulent was greater on upland rice cultivars (51.1%) than on irrigated rice cultivars (21.8%). Both virulent and avirulent isolates were present in the population of P. grisea to the known genes in the near isogenic lines. Of72test isolates, 94.4% were virulent for genes Pi3 and Pi4a. Thevirulence frequencies were relatively lower in decreasing order on Pi1, Pi4b and Pi2. Thecoefficient of similarity ranged from 0.28 to1.0 among the isolates pertaining to different races, while within the race IB9, it varied from 0.56 to1.0. Considering the coefficient of similarity of 0.81, 72% of isolates of race IB9 exhibited similar pattern of virulence.

Wind Tunnel Analysis of the Effects of Planting at Highway Grade Separation Structures, HR-202, 1979

Blowing and drifting snow has been a problem for the highway maintenance engineer virtually since the inception of the automobile. In the early days, highway engineers were limited in their capability to design and construct drift free roadway cross sections, and the driving public tolerated the delays associated with snow storms. Modern technology, however, has long since provided the design expertise, financial resources, and construction capability for creating relatively snowdrift free highways, and the driver today has come to expect a highway facility that is free of snowdrifts, and if drifts develop they expect highway maintenance crews to open the highway within a short time. Highway administrators have responded to this charge for better control of snowdrifting. Modern highway designs in general provide an aerodynamic cross section that inhibits the deposition of snow on the roadway insofar as it is economically feasible to do so.

Genetic diversity and virulence pattern in field populations of Pyricularia grisea from rice cultivar Metica-1

Rice blast is a major yield constraint of the irrigated rice in the State of Tocantins, Brazil. The objective of this investigation was to study the phenotypic and genetic diversity within the pathogen population of Pyricularia grisea in samples collected from four individual farms of rice cultivar Metica-1, under epidemic conditions of leaf blast. A set of 87 isolates was tested on 32 rice genotypes including eight international differentials. Considering 80% similarity in virulence, two groups comprising a total of 81 isolates were recognized, independently of the farms from which they were collected. Eighty percent of the isolates pertained to pathotype ID-14, indicating high cultivar specificity and narrow diversity of virulence in the sample population. The virulence in pathogen population on rice cultivars BR-IRGA 409 and Rio Formoso was low. Analysis of P. grisea isolates using rep-PCR with two primer sequences from Pot2 generated fingerprint profiles of one to nine bands. Cluster analysis revealed the occurrence of six fingerprint groups with similarities ranging from 0.09 to 1. There was no straight relationship between virulence of the isolates based on reaction pattern on 32 genotypes and grouping based on Pot2 rep-PCR analysis of P. grisea isolates collected from 'Metica-1'.

Assessing the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais, Switzerland

Background: The Valais's cancer registry (RVsT) of the Observatoire valaisan de le santé (OVS) and the department of oncology of Valais's Hospital conducted a study on the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais. Colorectal cancer is the third cause of death by cancer in Switzerland with about 1600 deaths per year. It is the third most frequent cancer for males and the second most frequent for females in Valais. The number of new colorectal cancer cases (average per year) increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. The number of colorectal cancer death cases (average per year) slightly increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. Age-standardized rates of incidence were stable for males and females in Valais and in Switzerland between 1989 and 2009, while age-standardized rates of mortality decreased for males and females in Valais and Switzerland. Results: 774 cases were recorded (59% males). Median age at diagnosis was 70 years old. Most of cancers were invasive (79%) and the main localization was the colon (71%). The most frequent mode of detection was a consultation for non emergency symptoms (75%), but almost 10% of patients consulted in emergency. 82% of patients were treated within 30 days from diagnosis. 90% of the patients were treated by surgery alone or with combined treatment. The first treatment was surgery, including endoscopic resection in 86% of the cases. The treatment was different according to the localization and the stage of the cancer. Survival rate was 95% at 30 days and 79% at one year. The survival was dependent on the stage and the age at diagnosis. Cox model shows an association between mortality and age (better survival for young people) and between mortality and stage (better survival for the lower stages). Methods: RVsT collects information on all cancer cases since 1989 for people registered in the communes of Valais. RVsT has an authorization to collect non anonymized data. All new incident cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. We studied all cases of in situ and invasive colorectal cancers diagnosed between 2006 and 2009 and registered routinely at the RVsT. We checked for data completeness and if necessary sent questionnaires to avoid missing data. A distance of 15 cm has been chosen to delimitate the colon (sigmoid) and the rectal cancers. We made an active follow-up for vital status to have a valid survival analysis. We analyzed the characteristics of the tumors according to age, sex, localization and stage with stata 9 software. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and Cox model were fitted to analyze survival. Conclusion: The characteristics of patients and tumors and the one year survival were similar to those observed in Switzerland and some European countries. Patterns of care were close to those recommended in guidelines. Routine data recorded in a cancer registry can be used, not only to provide general statistics, but also to help clinicians assess local practices.

Functional analysis of Plasmodium vivax VIR proteins reveals different subcellular localizations and cytoadherence to the ICAM-1 endothelial receptor.

The subcellular localization and function of variant subtelomeric multigene families in Plasmodium vivax remain vastly unknown. Among them, the vir superfamily is putatively involved in antigenic variation and in mediating adherence to endothelial receptors. In the absence of a continuous in vitro culture system for P. vivax, we have generated P. falciparum transgenic lines expressing VIR proteins to infer location and function. We chose three proteins pertaining to subfamilies A (VIR17), C (VIR14) and D (VIR10), with domains and secondary structures that predictably traffic these proteins to different subcellular compartments. Here, we showed that VIR17 remained inside the parasite and around merozoites, whereas VIR14 and VIR10 were exported to the membrane of infected red blood cells (iRBCs) in an apparent independent pathway of Maurer's clefts. Remarkably, VIR14 was exposed at the surface of iRBCs and mediated adherence to different endothelial receptors expressed in CHO cells under static conditions. Under physiological flow conditions, however, cytoadherence was only observed to ICAM-1, which was the only receptor whose adherence was specifically and significantly inhibited by antibodies against conserved motifs of VIR proteins. Immunofluorescence studies using these antibodies also showed different subcellular localizations of VIR proteins in P. vivax-infected reticulocytes from natural infections. These data suggest that VIR proteins are trafficked to different cellular compartments and functionally demonstrates that VIR proteins can specifically mediate cytoadherence to the ICAM-1 endothelial receptor.

Minimum Retroreflectivity of Traffic Signs and Pavement Markings, HR-562, 1995

This final report contains two separate reports which describe the retroreflectivity levels of various traffic signs and pavement markings on the Iowa primary road system. The data was collected in the fall/winter of 1994 and given to the Federal Highway Administration in March of 1995. This information is currently being combined with similar information from other jurisdictions across the country for the purpose of determining the impact of mandated minimum retroreflectivity levels. The FHWA will be releasing their report sometime in 1996. In October 1992, Congress mandated (Public Law 102-388) the Secretary of Transportation to revise the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices to include a minimum level of retroreflectivity for pavement markings and traffic signs which shall apply to all roads open to public travel. In 1994, the FHWA initiated research studies to determine the retroreflectivity levels which currently exist for signs and markings in an attempt to develop standards which are reasonable to implement. The Iowa Department of Transportation participated in both of the studies and the final reports are included. After compilation and analysis of the collected retroreflectivity data, the FHWA will propose the new MUTCD standards through the federal rule making process. It is estimated that the actual MUTCD change will occur sometime in late 1997 or early 1998.

Field Evaluation of Alternative Load Transfer Device Locations in Low Traffic Volume Pavements, TR-420, 2003

In jointed portland cement concrete pavements, dowel bars are typically used to transfer loads between adjacent slabs. A common practice is for designers to place dowel bars at a certain, consistent spacing such that a sufficient number of dowels are available to effectively transfer anticipated loads. In many cases, however, the standards developed today for new highway construction simply do not reflect the design needs of low traffic volume, rural roads. The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of the number of dowel bars and dowel location on joint performance and ultimately on pavement performance. For this research, test sections were designed, constructed, and tested in actual field service pavement. Test sections were developed to include areas with load transfer assemblies having three and four dowels in the outer wheel path only, areas with no joint reinforcement whatsoever, and full lane dowel basket assemblies as the control. Two adjacent paving projects provided both rural and urban settings and differing base materials. This report documents the approach to implementing the study and provides discussion and suggestions based on the results of the research. The research results indicate that the use of single three or four dowel basket assemblies in the outer wheel path is acceptable for use in low truck volume roads. In the case of roadways with relatively stiff bases such as asphalt treated or stabilized bases, the use of the three dowel bar pattern in the outside wheel path is expected to provide adequate performance over the design life of the pavement. In the case of untreated or granular bases, the results indicate that the use of the three or four dowel bar basket in both wheel paths provides the best long-term solution to load transfer and faulting measurements.

Spontaneous 24-h GHRELIN secretion pattern in fasting subjects : maintenance of a meal-related pattern

RESUME OBJECTIF: Outre la stimulation de la sécrétion d'hormone de croissance, la ghréline cause une prise pondérale par augmentation de l'assimilation d'aliments et réduction de la consommation lipidique. Il a été décrit que les taux de ghréline augmentent durant la phase pré-prandiale et diminuent juste après un repas, ceci suggérant qu'elle puisse jouer un rôle d'initiateur de la prise du repas. Cependant, la sécrétion de ghréline chez des sujets à jeun n'a pas encore été étudiée en détail. DESSIN: Les profils de sécrétion de ghréline pendant 24 heures ont été étudiés chez six sujets volontaires sains (3 femmes, 3 hommes; 25.5 ans; BMI 22.8 kg/m2) et comparés aux profils plasmatiques de l'hormone de croissance, de l'insuline et du glucose. METHODE: Des échantillons sanguins ont été prélevés toutes les 20 minutes pendant 24 heures et les taux de ghréline ont été mesurés par radio-immuno essai, utilisant un anticorps polyclonal de lapin. Le profil circadien de la sécrétion de ghréline (cluster analysis) a été évalué. RESULTATS: Une augmentation puis une diminution spontanée des taux de ghréline ont été observées aux moments où les sujets auraient habituellement mangé. La ghréline a été sécrétée de façon pulsatile avec approximativement 8 pics par 24 heures. Une diminution générale des taux de ghréline a également été observée durant la période d'étude. Aucune corrélation n'a pu être observée entre les taux de ghréline, d'homione de croissance, d'insuline et de glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Cette étude montre que pendant une période de jeûne les taux de ghréline suivent un profil similaire à ceux décrits chez des sujets mangeant 3 fois par jour. Durant le jeûne, l'hormone de croissance, l'insuline et le glucose ne semblent pas être impliqués dans la régulation de la sécrétion de ghréline. En outre, nous avons observé que la sécrétion de ghréline est pulsatile. La variation des taux de ghréline, indépendamment des repas, chez des sujets à jeun, renforce les observations préalables selon lesquelles le système nerveux central est primairement impliqué dans la régulation de la prise alimentaire. ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: Ghrelin stimulates GH release and causes weight gain through increased food intake and reduced fat utiIization. Ghrelin levels were shown to rise in the preprandial period and decrease shortly after meal consumption, suggesting a role as a possible meal initiator. However, ghrelin secretion in fasting subjects has not yet been studied in detail. DESIGN: 24-h ghrelin profiles were studied in six healthy volunteers (three females; 25.5 years; body mass index 22.8 kg/m2) and compared with GH, insulin and glucose levels. METHODS: Blood samples were taken every 20 min during a 24-h fasting period and total ghrelin levels were measured by RIA using a polyclonal rabbit antibody. The circadian pattern of ghrelin secretion and pulsatility (Cluster analysis) were evaluated. RESULTS: An increase and spontaneous decrease in ghrelin were seen at the timepoints of customary meals. Ghrelin was secreted in a pulsatile manner with approximately 8 peaks/24 h. An overall decrease in ghrelin levels was observed during the study period. There was no correlation of ghrelin with GH, insulin or blood glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study indicates that fasting ghrelin profiles display a circadian pattern similar to that described in people eating three times per day. In a fasting condition. GH, insulin and glucose do not appear to be involved in ghrelin regulation. In addition, we round that ghrelin is secreted in a pulsatile pattern. The variation in ghrelin independently of meals in fasting subjects supports previous observations that it is the brain that is primarily involved in the regulation of meal initiation.