An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Finite element analysis of particle impact problems

Particle impacts are of fundamental importance in many areas and there has been a renewed interest in research on particle impact problems. A comprehensive investigation of the particle impact problems, using finite element (FE) methods, is presented in this thesis. The capability of FE procedures for modelling particle impacts is demonstrated by excellent agreements between FE analysis results and previous theoretical, experimental and numerical results. For normal impacts of elastic particles, it is found that the energy loss due to stress wave propagation is negligible if it can reflect more than three times during the impact, for which Hertz theory provides a good prediction of impact behaviour provided that the contact deformation is sufficiently small. For normal impact of plastic particles, the energy loss due to stress wave propagation is also generally negligible so that the energy loss is mainly due to plastic deformation. Finite-deformation plastic impact is addressed in this thesis so that plastic impacts can be categorised into elastic-plastic impact and finite-deformation plastic impact. Criteria for the onset of finite-deformation plastic impacts are proposed in terms of impact velocity and material properties. It is found that the coefficient of restitution depends mainly upon the ratio of impact velocity to yield Vni/Vy0 for elastic-plastic impacts, but it is proportional to [(Vni/Vy0)*(Y/E*)]-1/2, where Y /E* is the representative yield strain for finite-deformation plastic impacts. A theoretical model for elastic-plastic impacts is also developed and compares favourably with FEA and previous experimental results. The effect of work hardening is also investigated.

Impact of cholinesterase inhibitors on behavioral and psychological symptoms of Alzheimer's disease:a meta-analysis

Objective: To determine the efficacy of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) in improving the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Data sources: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Registry, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1966 to 2007. We limited our search to English Language, full text, published articles and human studies. Data extraction: We included randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of donepezil, rivastigmine, or galantamine in managing BPSD displayed by AD patients. Using the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, we critically appraised all studies and included only those with an attrition rate of less than 40%, concealed measurement of the outcomes, and intention to treat analysis of the collected data. All data were imputed into pre-defined evidence based tables and were pooled using the Review Manager 4.2.1 software for data synthesis. Results: We found 12 studies that met our inclusion criteria but only nine of them provided sufficient data for the meta-analysis. Among patients with mild to severe AD and in comparison to placebo, ChEIs as a class had a beneficial effects on reducing BPSD with a standard mean difference (SMD) of -0.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]; -0.18, -0.01) and a weighted mean difference (WMD) of -1.38 neuropsychiatry inventory point (95% CI; -2.30, -0.46). In studies with mild AD patients, the WMD was -1.92 (95% CI; -3.18, -0.66); and in studies with severe AD patients, the WMD was -0.06 (95% CI; -2.12, +0.57). Conclusion: Cholinesterase inhibitors lead to a statistical significant reduction in BPSD among patients with AD, yet the clinical relevance of this effect remains unclear.

The impact of stressors and regulatory focus on creativity:a dual level of analysis

Presentation

EU-ASEAN relations in the post-Cold War era:an analysis of the impact of normative factors on interregionalism

This thesis examines the relationship between the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with a focus on why their normative elements, e.g. values and norms, affect their ties in the post-Cold War era. Since the end of the Cold War, policy-makers and academics have become interested in region-to-region interaction, termed interregionalism. Though interregionalism is considered to have become an indelible feature of post-Cold War international politics, there are question marks over its importance. It is often argued that interregionalism reinforces the collective identity of the regional organisations involved. It is also maintained that its overall relevance to the international system depends on the level of actorness, which is primarily measured in institutional and material terms, of the participant regional organisations. This thesis contends that the normative components of the EU and ASEAN are also fundamental constituents of their actorness and, consequently, define significantly their interregionalism. This is based on a crucial observation that normative factors are of importance to the regional and international relations of the EU and ASEAN. Yet, while they strongly espouse norms and values to guide their internal and external activities, their normative premises radically differ from each other. Furthermore, these normative differences jeopardise their cooperation. Building on this observation the inquiry takes the normative components of the EU and ASEAN as the criterion as well as the focus for investigating their interregionalism. In doing so, it hypothesises that the EU and ASEAN are two different regional actors that adopt two dissimilar sets of norms to conduct their regional and international affairs and that such normative differences hinder their relations. Within this hypothesis, it seeks to address three central questions. First, what are the normative features that constitute the EU and ASEAN as actors in world politics and that make them different from each other? Second, what are the main sources of their normative differences? Finally, why do their normative differences become an obstructive factor in their relationship? To address these issues, the inquiry adopts a constructivist interpretation (of International Relations) and opts for a narrative and empirical inquiry, which is based on information and data acquired from official documents, scholarly works and interviews and questionnaires. In doing so, it finds that as they were born and evolved in two dissimilar temporal and spatial settings, the EU and ASEAN are two different norm entrepreneurs and normative powers. The former advocates a set of liberal cosmopolitan norms whereas the latter champions a set of traditional communitarian principles. Their normative differences become a major obstacle to their cooperation, especially when one regional organisation’s norms are refused or violated by the other. Thus, a key lesson drawn from these findings is that in order to explain more fully EU-ASEAN interregionalism, it is essential to consider their norms, the reasons behind their normative differences and the implication of those differences to their relations

Plant closures and taskforce responses:an analysis of the impact of and policy response to MG Rover in Birmingham

This paper explores the socio-economic impacts and associated policy responses to the collapse of MG Rover at Longbridge in Birmingham. Critically, it attempts to move beyond a ‘standard’ taskforce narrative that emphasizes the role of the regional response. While recognizing that significant policy ‘successes’ were indeed evident at the regional level in anticipating and responding to the crisis, a wider perspective is required that situates this taskforce response in (1) a fuller understanding of labour market precariousness (that in turn mitigates some of its policy ‘successes’), and (2) more local perspectives that highlight the local impacts of closure, the role of the neighbourhood level officials and the third sector in mediating these. Taking this broader perspective suggests that longer-term, workers face a precarious situation and the need for policies to create and sustain ‘good quality’ jobs remains paramount. Adding in more local perspectives, a key lesson from the Longbridge experience for dealing with closures more generally is that the public policy responses must be: multidimensional in that they transcend narrow sector-based concerns and addresses broader spatial impacts; inclusive in that they build on a broad coalition of economic and social stakeholders; and long-term in that they acknowledge that adaptation takes many years. If anything, the Birmingham Longbridge experience demonstrates the difficulty of achieving such responses in the context of crisis where action is imperative and deliberation a luxury.

Comparative Analysis of the Opposite Rotating Cylinders Impact over Couette Flow for Rarefied Gas

Петър Господинов, Добри Данков, Владимир Русинов, Стефан Стефанов - Иследвано е цилиндрично течение на Кует на разреден газ в случая на въртене на два коаксиални цилиндъра с еднакви по големина скорости, но в различни посоки. Целта на изследването е да се установи влиянието на малки скорости на въртене върху макрохарактеристиките – ρ, V , . Числените резултати са получени чрез използване на DSMC и числено решение на уравненията на Навие-Стокс за относително малки (дозвукови) скорости на въртене. Установено е добро съвпадение на резултатите получени по двата метода за Kn = 0.02. Установено е, че съществува “стационарна” точка за плътността и скоростта. Получените резултати са важни при решаването на неравнини, задачи от микрофлуидиката с отчитане на ефектите на кривината. Ключови думи: Механика на флуидите, Кинетична теория, Разреден газ, DSMC

The impact of perceived corporate environmental performance on the behavior of capital market decision makers : analysis of food industry companies

Environmental protectionism and sustainable development has been gaining increased attention among governments, investors and consumers alike. As a result, firms are facing growing pressure from the various stakeholders to improve their environmental performance. This study is focusing on the food industry, which in recent years has been a subject of increased scrutiny due to their role in resource consumption, waste generation and unsustainable production practices. Our research is aiming to examine how the financial community evaluates the environmental stewardship of food industry companies as proxied by market reactions in response to environmental news. Are all company related environmental news items evaluated equally, and which financial and non-financial firm-specific attributes can influence market responses? Have there been changes in reactions on the stock exchange in the past two decades?

The development and analysis of a field project model curriculum and its impact on achievement and attitude toward science and the environment with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students

This study was an evaluation of a Field Project Model Curriculum and its impact on achievement, attitude toward science, attitude toward the environment, self-concept, and academic self-concept with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students. One hundred eight students were pretested and posttested on the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale, PHCSC (1985); the Self-Concept as a Learner Scale, SCAL (1978); the Marine Science Test, MST (1987); the Science Attitude Inventory, SAI (1970); and the Environmental Attitude Scale, EAS (1972). Using a stratified random design, three groups of students were randomly assigned according to sex and stanine level, to three treatment groups. Group one received the field project method, group two received the field study method, and group three received the field trip method. All three groups followed the marine biology course content as specified by Florida Student Performance Objectives and Frameworks. The intervention occurred for ten months with each group participating in outside-of-classroom activities on a trimonthly basis. Analysis of covariance procedures were used to determine treatment effects. F-ratios, p-levels and t-tests at p $<$.0062 (.05/8) indicated that a significant difference existed among the three treatment groups. Findings indicated that groups one and two were significantly different from group three with group one displaying significantly higher results than group two. There were no significant differences between males and females in performance on the five dependent variables. The tenets underlying environmental education are congruent with the recommendations toward the reform of science education. These include a value analysis approach, inquiry methods, and critical thinking strategies that are applied to environmental issues. ^

A spatial-temporal analysis of section 404 wetland permitting in Texas and Florida: Thirteen years of impact along the coast

Over the past 200 years, an estimated 53% (about 47 million ha) of the original wetlands in the conterminous United States have been lost, mainly as a result of various human activities. Despite the importance of wetlands (particularly along the coast), and a longstanding federal policy framework meant to protect their integrity, the cumulative impact on these natural systems over large areas is poorly understood. We address this lack of research by mapping and conducting descriptive spatial analyses of federal wetland alteration permits (pursuant to section 404 of the Clean Water Act) across 85 watersheds in Florida and coastal Texas from 1991 to 2003. Results show that more than half of the permits issued in both states (60%) fell under the Nationwide permitting category. Permits issued in Texas were typically located outside of urban areas (78%) and outside 100-year floodplains (61%). More than half of permits issued in Florida were within urban areas (57%) and outside of 100-year floodplains (51%). The most affected wetlands types were estuarine in Texas (47%) and palustrine in Florida (55%). We expect that an additional outcome of this work will be an increased awareness of the cumulative depletion of wetlands and loss of ecological services in these urbanized areas, perhaps leading to increased conservation efforts.

Tourist See Tourist Do: The Influence of Hollywood Movies and Television on Tourism Motivation and Activity Behavior

The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of Hollywood movies and television (movies/TV) on US viewer’s motivation to travel to and participate in activities featured in Hollywood movies/TV productions. A survey was administered in an online format to a convenience sample of 433 respondents via Qualtrics. Factor analysis, correlation, and regression was employed to explore relationships between the variables. Findings identified a profile of Hollywood movies/TV viewers, sources of information used to determine destination choice, and level of involvement among viewers of Hollywood movies/TV productions. Additionally, this study explored the relationships between Hollywood movies/TV productions, tourist motivations, and the propensity to participate in activities featured. Findings indicate that Hollywood movies/TV productions have a positive impact on viewer involvement and that movie/TV related tourism is likely to be affected by movie and TV viewing preference and destination image. The results identify that the predictor “TV viewing behavior” is the strongest predictor of entertainmentmotivated tourism, followed by “destination image” and “movie viewing behavior.” Findings also indicate that “destination image” is the strongest predictor of movie-related activities and that the image portrayed in a movie does influence the viewer’s inclination to visit and participate in activities featured in a movie.

The Impact of Different Types of Media on Tourists' Behavioral Intentions

The primary purpose of this study was to examine how much different types of media affect a tourist’s decision when choosing a destination to travel. Further, this study attempted to investigate the impact of the different types of media on a tourist’s behavioral intentions. A primary field survey was designed for this study to collect data and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was performed to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. As a result, the most influential media form for choosing a destination to travel was social media, while brochure ranked the last. Subsequently, demographic factors showed noticeable propensities for the different types of media. Lastly, media types had a significant impact on three behavioral intentions for traveling as well. Study findings are expected to provide valuable information to better utilize the media as a marketing tool for the tourism industry.