Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Wavelets in real-time paper web analysis

Online paper web analysis relies on traversing scanners that criss-cross on top of a rapidly moving paper web. The sensors embedded in the scanners measure many important quality variables of paper, such as basis weight, caliper and porosity. Most of these quantities are varying a lot and the measurements are noisy at many different scales. The zigzagging nature of scanning makes it difficult to separate machine direction (MD) and cross direction (CD) variability from one another. For improving the 2D resolution of the quality variables above, the paper quality control team at the Department of Mathematics and Physics at LUT has implemented efficient Kalman filtering based methods that currently use 2D Fourier series. Fourier series are global and therefore resolve local spatial detail on the paper web rather poorly. The target of the current thesis is to study alternative wavelet based representations as candidates to replace the Fourier basis for a higher resolution spatial reconstruction of these quality variables. The accuracy of wavelet compressed 2D web fields will be compared with corresponding truncated Fourier series based fields.

Validation of transit-time flowmetry for chronic measurements of regional blood flow in resting and exercising rats

The objective of the present study was to validate the transit-time technique for long-term measurements of iliac and renal blood flow in rats. Flow measured with ultrasonic probes was confirmed ex vivo using excised arteries perfused at varying flow rates. An implanted 1-mm probe reproduced with accuracy different patterns of flow relative to pressure in freely moving rats and accurately quantitated the resting iliac flow value (on average 10.43 ± 0.99 ml/min or 2.78 ± 0.3 ml min-1 100 g body weight-1). The measurements were stable over an experimental period of one week but were affected by probe size (resting flows were underestimated by 57% with a 2-mm probe when compared with a 1-mm probe) and by anesthesia (in the same rats, iliac flow was reduced by 50-60% when compared to the conscious state). Instantaneous changes of iliac and renal flow during exercise and recovery were accurately measured by the transit-time technique. Iliac flow increased instantaneously at the beginning of mild exercise (from 12.03 ± 1.06 to 25.55 ± 3.89 ml/min at 15 s) and showed a smaller increase when exercise intensity increased further, reaching a plateau of 38.43 ± 1.92 ml/min at the 4th min of moderate exercise intensity. In contrast, exercise-induced reduction of renal flow was smaller and slower, with 18% and 25% decreases at mild and moderate exercise intensities. Our data indicate that transit-time flowmetry is a reliable method for long-term and continuous measurements of regional blood flow at rest and can be used to quantitate the dynamic flow changes that characterize exercise and recovery

Looking for the GAP effect in manual responses and the role of contextual influences in reaction time experiments

When the offset of a visual stimulus (GAP condition) precedes the onset of a target, saccadic reaction times are reduced in relation to the condition with no offset (overlap condition) - the GAP effect. However, the existence of the GAP effect for manual responses is still controversial. In two experiments using both simple (Experiment 1, N = 18) and choice key-press procedures (Experiment 2, N = 12), we looked for the GAP effect in manual responses and investigated possible contextual influences on it. Participants were asked to respond to the imperative stimulus that would occur under different experimental contexts, created by varying the array of warning-stimulus intervals (0, 300 and 1000 ms) and conditions (GAP and overlap): i) intervals and conditions were randomized throughout the experiment; ii) conditions were run in different blocks and intervals were randomized; iii) intervals were run in different blocks and conditions were randomized. Our data showed that no GAP effect was obtained for any manipulation. The predictability of stimulus occurrence produced the strongest influence on response latencies. In Experiment 1, simple manual responses were shorter when the intervals were blocked (247 ms, P < 0.001) in relation to the other two contexts (274 and 279 ms). Despite the use of choice key-press procedures, Experiment 2 produced a similar pattern of results. A discussion addressing the critical conditions to obtain the GAP effect for distinct motor responses is presented. In short, our data stress the relevance of the temporal allocation of attention for behavioral performance.

An analysis of household farm investment decisions under varying land tenure arrangements in Ghana

Land tenure insecurity is widely perceived as a disincentive for long-term land improvement investment hence the objective of this paper is to evaluate how tenure (in)security associated with different land use arrangements in Ghana influenced households’ plot level investment decisions and choices. The paper uses data from the Farmer-Based Organisations (FBO) survey. The FBO survey collected information from 2,928 households across three ecological zones of Ghana using multistaged cluster sampling. Probit and Tobit models tested the effects of land tenancy and ownership arrangements on households’ investment behaviour while controlling other factors. It was found that marginal farm size was inversely related to tenure insecurity while tenure insecurity correlate positively with value of farm land and not farm size. Individual ownership and documentation of land significantly reduced the probability of households losing uncultivated lands. Individual land ownership increased both the probability of investing and level of investments made in land improvement and irrigation probably due to increasing importance households place on land ownership. Two possible explanations for this finding are: First, that land markets and land relations have changed significantly over the last two decades with increasing money transaction and fixed agreements propelled by population growth and increasing value of land. Secondly, inclusion of irrigation investment as a long term investment in land raises the value of household investment and the time period required to reap the returns on the investments. Households take land ownership and duration of tenancy into consideration if the resource implications of land investments are relatively huge and the time dimension for harvesting returns to investments is relatively long.

Intake, growth and meat quality of steers given diets based on varying proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Simmental × Holstein-Friesian steers were offered four forage diets. These comprised grass silage (G); proportionately 0·67 grass silage, proportionately 0·33 maize silage (GGM); 0·33 grass silage, 0·67 maize silage ( MMG); maize silage ( M) from 424 (s.d. = 11·5) kg to slaughter at a minimum weight of 560 kg. Forages were mixed and offered ad libitum. Steers were offered 2 kg of a concentrate daily, the concentrate being formulated such that all steers had similar crude protein intakes across dietary treatments. A sample of steers was slaughtered at the beginning of the experimental period to allow the calculation of the rate of gain of the carcass and its components. Carcass dissection of a sample of steers allowed the development of a prediction equation of carcass composition based on thoracic limb dissection of all carcasses. Forage dry matter intake and live-weight gain increased linearly as maize silage replaced grass silage in the forage mixture, resulting in improvements in food conversion ratio (all P = 0·001). Killing-out proportion increased with maize silage inclusion ( P < 0·001) but fat and conformation scores did not differ significantly between diets. However, increasing maize inclusion in the diet resulted in a greater weight ( P = 0·05) and proportion ( P = 0·008) of fat in the carcass, and significant increases in internal fat deposition. The inclusion of maize led to a progressive increase in the daily gains of carcass ( P < 0·001), and significant increases in the daily gains of both fat ( P < 0·001) and lean tissue ( P < 0·001). Fat colour was more yellow in cattle given diets G and GGM than diets MMG and M ( P < 0·001) and colour intensity was lower on diet M than the other three diets ( P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in any aspects of eating quality between diets. Therefore, maize silage has the potential to reduce the time taken for finishing beef animals to achieve slaughter weight with no apparent detrimental effects on subsequent meat quality.

Modelling seasonally varying data: A case study for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)

Many time series are measured monthly, either as averages or totals, and such data often exhibit seasonal variability-the values of the series are consistently larger for some months of the year than for others. A typical series of this type is the number of deaths each month attributed to SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Seasonality can be modelled in a number of ways. This paper describes and discusses various methods for modelling seasonality in SIDS data, though much of the discussion is relevant to other seasonally varying data. There are two main approaches, either fitting a circular probability distribution to the data, or using regression-based techniques to model the mean seasonal behaviour. Both are discussed in this paper.

Cyclamen: time, sea and speciation biogeography using a temporally calibrated phylogeny

Aim The Mediterranean region is a species-rich area with a complex geographical history. Geographical barriers have been removed and restored due to sea level changes and local climatic change. Such barriers have been proposed as a plausible mechanism driving the high levels of speciation and endemism in the Mediterranean basin. This raises the fundamental question: is allopatric isolation the mechanism by which speciation occurs? This study explores the potential driving influence of palaeo-geographical events on the speciation of Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group with most species endemic to the Mediterranean region. Cyclamen species have been shown experimentally to have few genetic barriers to hybridization. Location The Mediterranean region, including northern Africa, extending eastwards to the Black Sea coast. Methods A generic level molecular phylogeny of Myrsinaceae and Primulaceae is constructed, using Bayesian approximation, to produce a secondary age estimate for the stem lineage of Cyclamen. This estimate is used to calibrate temporally an infrageneric phylogeny of Cyclamen, built with nrDNA ITS, cpDNA trnL-F and cpDNA rps16 sequences. A biogeographical analysis of Cyclamen is performed using dispersal-vicariance analysis. Results The emergence of the Cyclamen stem lineage is estimated at 30.1-29.2 Ma, and the crown divergence at 12.9-12.2 Ma. The average age of Cyclamen species is 3.7 Myr. Every pair of sister species have mutually exclusive, allopatric distributions relative to each other. This pattern appears typical of divergence events throughout the evolutionary history of the genus. Main conclusions Geographical barriers, such as the varying levels of the Mediterranean Sea, are the most plausible explanation for speciation events throughout the phylogenetic history of Cyclamen. The genus demonstrates distributional patterns congruent with the temporally reticulate palaeogeography of the Mediterranean region.

Acoustic trapped modes in a three-dimensional waveguide of slowly varying cross section

In this paper we develop an asymptotic scheme to approximate the trapped mode solutions to the time harmonic wave equation in a three-dimensional waveguide with a smooth but otherwise arbitrarily shaped cross section and a single, slowly varying `bulge', symmetric in the longitudinal direction. Extending the work in Biggs (2012), we first employ a WKBJ-type ansatz to identify the possible quasi-mode solutions which propagate only in the thicker region, and hence find a finite cut-on region of oscillatory behaviour and asymptotic decay elsewhere. The WKBJ expansions are used to identify a turning point between the cut-on and cut-on regions. We note that the expansions are nonuniform in an interior layer centred on this point, and we use the method of matched asymptotic expansions to connect the cut-on and cut-on regions within this layer. The behaviour of the expansions within the interior layer then motivates the construction of a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion. Finally, we use this expansion and the symmetry of the waveguide around the longitudinal centre, x = 0, to extract trapped mode wavenumbers, which are compared with those found using a numerical scheme and seen to be extremely accurate, even to relatively large values of the small parameter.

A study on the performance of the partial PIC CDMA detector in the presence of time offset errors

This paper investigates the effect of time offset errors on the partial parallel interference canceller (PIC) and compares the performance of it against that of the standard PIC. The BER performances of the standard and partial interference cancellers are simulated in a near far environment with varying time offset errors. These simulations indicate that whilst timing errors significantly affect the performance of both these schemes, they do not diminish the gains that are realised by the partial PIC over that of the standard PIC.

Postprandial lipid and hormone responses to meals of varying fat contents: modulatory role of lipoprotein lipase?

OBJECTIVE: Substrate and hormone responses to meals of differing fat content were evaluated in normal subjects in order to investigate mechanisms underlying the regulation of postprandial lipoprotein concentration. DESIGN: A randomised cross-over study with three different meals on three occasions. SETTING: Free-living subjects associated with Surrey University. SUBJECTS: Ten male volunteers (aged 18-23 years) were recruited. INTERVENTIONS: Three test meals containing 20, 40 or 80 g fat but identical carbohydrate and protein content were randomly allocated to volunteers. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Pre- and postprandial blood samples were taken for the analysis of plasma triacylglycerol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, immunoreactive insulin and glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide levels and postheparin lipoprotein lipase activity measurements. RESULTS: Peak triacylglycerol concentrations and lipoprotein lipase activity measurements were significantly higher following the 80 g than the 20 g fat meal (P = 0.009 and P = 0.049 respectively). Areas under the glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide time-response concentration curves were significantly higher following the 80 g compared with the 20 g fat meal (P = 0.04), but no differences in insulin response to the meals were seen. The 30-360 min decrease in the non-esterified fatty acid concentration was less following the 80 g than the 20 g meal (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that glucose-dependent insulinotrophic polypeptide may mediate increased lipoprotein lipase activity in response to fat-containing meals and may play a role in circulating lipoprotein homeostasis. This mechanism may be overloaded with high fat meals with adverse consequences on circulating triacylglycerol and NEFA concentrations.

Zinc metabolism in pregnant and lactating rats and the effect of varying iron: Zn in the diet

Pregnant rats were given control (46 mg iron/kg, 61 mg zinc/kg), low-Zn (6.9 mg Zn/kg) or low-Zn plus Fe (168 mg Fe/kg) diets from day 1 of pregnancy. The animals were allowed to give birth and parturition times recorded. Exactly 24 h after the end of parturition the pups were killed and analysed for water, fat, protein, Fe and Zn contents and the mothers' haemoglobin (Hb) and packed cell volume (PCV) were measured. There were no differences in weight gain or food intakes throughout pregnancy. Parturition times were similar (mean time 123 (SE 15) min) and there were no differences in the number of pups born. Protein, water and fat contents of the pups were similar but the low-Zn Fe-supplemented group had higher pup Fe than the low-Zn unsupplemented group, and the control group had higher pup Zn than both the low-Zn groups. The low-Zn groups had a greater incidence of haemorrhaged or deformed pups, or both, than the controls. Pregnant rats were given diets of adequate Zn level (40 mg/kg) but with varying Fe:Zn (0.8, 1.7, 2.9, 3.7). Zn retention from the diet was measured using 65Zn as an extrinsic label on days 3, 10 and 17 of pregnancy with a whole-body gamma-counter. A group of non-pregnant rats was also included as controls. The 65Zn content of mothers and pups was measured 24-48 h after birth and at 14, 21 and 24 d of age. In all groups Zn retention was highest from the first meal, fell in the second meal and then rose in the third meal of the pregnant but not the non-pregnant rats. There were no differences between the groups given diets of varying Fe:Zn level. Approximately 25% of the 65Zn was transferred from the mothers to the pups by the time they were 48 h old, and a further 17% during the first 14 d of lactation. The pup 65Zn content did not significantly increase after the first 20 d of lactation but the maternal 65Zn level continued to fall gradually.

Evaluation of an improved tracer method to monitor cheese curd syneresis at varying milk fat levels in a cheese vat

Previous studies have reported that cheese curd syneresis kinetics can be monitored by dilution of chemical tracers, such as Blue Dextran, in whey. The objective of this study was to evaluate an improved tracer method to monitor whey volumes expelled over time during syneresis. Two experiments with different ranges of milk fat (0-5% and 2.3-3.5%) were carried out in an 11 L double-O laboratory scale cheese vat. Tracer was added to the curd-whey mixture during the cutting phase of cheese making and samples were taken at 10 min intervals up to 75 min after cutting. The volume of whey expelled was measured gravimetrically and the dilution of tracer in the whey was measured by absorbance at 620 nm. The volumes of whey expelled were significantly reduced at higher milk fat levels. Whey yield was predicted with a SEP ranging from 3.2 to 6.3 g whey/100 mL of milk and a CV ranging from 2.03 to 2.7% at different milk fat levels.

Departures from convective equilibrium with a rapidly-varying surface forcing

Convective equilibrium is a long-standing and useful concept for understanding many aspects of the behaviour of deep moist convection. For example, it is often invoked in developing parameterizations for large-scale models. However, the equilibrium assumption may begin to break down as models are increasingly used with shorter timesteps and finer resolutions. Here we perform idealized cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection with imposed time variations in the surface forcing. A range of rapid forcing timescales from 1 − 36hr are used, in order to induce systematic departures from equilibrium. For the longer forcing timescales, the equilibrium assumption remains valid, in at least the limited sense that cycle-integrated measures of convective activity are very similar from cycle to cycle. For shorter forcing timescales, cycle-integrated convection becomes more variable, with enhanced activity on one cycle being correlated with reduced activity on the next, suggesting a role for convective memory. Further investigation shows that the memory does not appear to be carried by the domain-mean thermodynamic fields but rather by structures on horizontal scales of 5 − 20km. Such structures are produced by the convective clouds and can persist beyond the lifetime of the cloud, even through to the next forcing cycle.

Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis

Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.