Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Impact of land-use on soil organic matter quality in south-western Australia - characterization with C-13 CP/MAS NMR spectroscopy

The influence of change in land-use from native vegetation to pasture (20-71 yr after conversion), and subsequent change from pasture to eucalypt plantation (7-10 yr after conversion) on soil organic matter quality was investigated using C-13 CP/MAS NMR spectroscopy. We studied surface soil (0-10 cm) from six sites representing a range of soil, and climate types from south-western Australia. Total C in the samples ranged from 1.6 to 5.5%, but the relative proportions of the four primary spectral regions (alkyl, O-alkyl, aromatic and carboxylic) were similar across the sites, and changes due to land-use at each site were relatively minor. Main impacts of changed land-use were higher O-alkyl (carbohydrate) material under pasture than under native vegetation and plantation (P = 0.048), and lower aromatic C under pasture than under native vegetation (P = 0.027). The decrease in aromatic C in pasture soils was related to time since clearing. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural ordering of coal char during heat treatment and its impact on reactivity

The effect of heat treatment on the structure of an Australian semi-anthracite char was studied in detail in the 850-1150degreesC temperature range using XRD, HRTEM, and electrical resistivity techniques. It was found that the carbon crystallite size in the char does not change significantly during heat treatment in the temperature range studied, for both the raw coal and its ash-free derivative obtained by acid treatment. However, the fraction of the organized carbon in the raw coal chars, determined by XRD, increased with increase of heat treatment time and temperature, while that for the ash-free coal chars remained almost unchanged. This suggests the occurrence of catalytic ordering during heat treatment, supported by the observation that the electrical resistivity of the raw coal chars decreased with heat treatment, while that of the ash-free coal chars did not vary significantly. Further confirmatory evidence was provided by high resolution transmission electron micrographs depicting well-organized carbon layers surrounding iron particles. It is also found that the fraction of organized carbon does not reach unity, but attains an apparent equilibrium value that increases with increase in temperature, providing an apparent heat of ordering of 71.7 kJ mol(-1) in the temperature range studied. Good temperature-independent correlation was found between the electrical resistivity and the organized carbon fraction, indicating that electrical resistivity is indeed structure sensitive. Good correlation was also found between the electrical resistivity and the reactivity of coal char. All these results strongly suggest that the thermal deactivation is the result of a crystallite-perfecting process, which is effectively catalyzed by the inorganic matter in the coal char. Based on kinetic interpretation of the data it is concluded that the process is diffusion controlled, most likely involving transport of iron in the inter-crystallite nanospaces in the temperature range studied. The activation energy of this transport process is found to be very low, at about 11.8 kJ mol(-1), which is corroborated by model-free correlation of the temporal variation of organized carbon fraction as well as electrical resistivity data using the superposition method, and is suggestive of surface transport of iron. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A field study conducted at Kidston Gold Mine, to evaluate the impact of arsenic and zinc from mine tailing to grazing cattle

The grazing trial at Kidston Gold Mine, North Queensland, was aimed specifically to assess the uptake of metals from the tailing and the potential for unacceptable contamination of saleable meat. Further aims included estimating metal dose rates and identifying potential exposure pathways including plant uptake of heavy metals, mine tailings adhered to plants and direct ingestion of mine tailing. It was found that of the 11 metals analysed (As, Zn, Co, Cd, Cr, Sn, Pb, Sb, Hg, Se and Ni) in the animal's liver, muscle and blood during the 8-month trial period, only accumulation of arsenic and zinc occurred. A risk assessment including these two metals was conducted to determine the potential for chronic metal toxicity and long-term contamination, using the estimates of metal dose rate. It was concluded that no toxicity or long-term contamination in cattle was likely at this site. Management procedures were therefore not required at this site; however, the results highlight percent ground cover and standing dry matter (DM) as important factors in decreasing metal exposure from direct ingestion of tailings and dust adhered to plants. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 2000 Ogura Lecture: Olfactory neural cells: An untapped diagnostic and therapeutic resource

Objective. This is an over-view of the cellular biology of upper nasal mucosal cells that have special characteristics that enable them to be used to diagnose and study congenital neurological diseases and to aid neural repair. Study Design: After mapping the distribution of neural cells in the upper nose, the authors' investigations moved to the use of olfactory neurones to diagnose neurological diseases of development, especially schizophrenia. Olfactory-ensheating glial cells (OEGs) from the cranial cavity promote axonal penetration of the central nervous system and aid spinal cord repair in rodents. The authors sought to isolate these cells from the more accessible upper nasal cavity in rats and in humans and prove they could likewise promote neural regeneration, making these cells suitable for human spinal repair investigations. Methods: The schizophrenia-diagnosis aspect of the study entailed the biopsy of the olfactory areas of 10 schizophrenic patients and 10 control subjects. The tissue samples were sliced and grown in culture medium. The ease of cell attachment to fibronectin (artificial epithelial basement membrane), as well as the mitotic and apoptotic indices, was studied in the presence and absence of dopamine in those cell cultures. The neural repair part of the study entailed a harvesting and insertion of first rat olfactory lamina propria rich in OEGs between cut ends of the spinal cords and then later the microinjection of an OEG-rich suspension into rat spinal cords previously transected by open laminectomy. Further studies were done in which OEG insertion was performed up to 1 month after rat cord transection and also in monkeys. Results: Schizophrenic patients' olfactory tissues do not easily attach to basement membrane compared with control subjects, adding evidence to the theory that cell wall anomalies are part of the schizophrenic lesion of neurones. Schizophrenic patient cell cultures had higher mitotic and apoptotic indices compared with control subjects. The addition of dopamine altered these indices enough to allow accurate differentiation of schizophrenics from control patients, leading to, possibly for the first time, an early objective diagnosis of schizophrenia and possible assessment of preventive strategies. OEGs from the nose were shown to be as effective as those from the olfactory bulb in promoting axonal growth across transected spinal cords even when added I month after injury in the rat. These otherwise paraplegic rats grew motor and proprioceptive and fine touch fibers with corresponding behavioral improvement. Conclusions. The tissues of the olfactory mucosa are readily available to the otolaryngologist. Being surface cells, they must regenerate (called neurogenesis). Biopsy of this area and amplification of cells in culture gives the scientist a window to the developing brain, including early diagnosis of schizophrenia. The Holy Grail of neurological disease is the cure of traumatic paraplegia and OEGs from the nose promote that repair. The otolaryngologist may become the necessary partner of the neurophysiologist and spinal surgeon to take the laboratory potential of paraplegic cure into the day-to-day realm of clinical reality.

The therapeutic potential of dopamine modulators on the cardiovascular and renal systems

In the periphery, physiological dopamine increases renal blood flow, decreases renal resistance and acts on the kidney tubule to enhance natriuresis and diuresis. The loss of dopamine function may be involoved in the deterioration in kidney function associated with ageing and may have a role in the pathogenesis of hypertension and diabetes. Intravenous dopamine is used as a positive inotrope in the treatment of acute heart failure and cardiogenic shock and as a diuretic in renal failure. The clinical uses of dopamine are limited, as it must be given intravenously, and also has widespread effects. The levels of peripheral dopamine can be increased by the administration of L-dopa to increase synthesis, prodrugs to release dopamine (docarpamine, glu-dopa) or by inhibiting the breakdown of dopamine (nitecapone). Preliminary clinical trials suggest that docarpamine may be useful in patients with low cardiac output syndrome after cardiac surgery and in refractory cirrhotic ascites. Ibopamine is an agonist at dopamine D1 and D2 receptors, which may retard the progression of chronic renal failure. Gludopa is selective for the kidney thus avoiding widespread side effects. The early clinical studies with ibopamine as a diuretic in heart failure were favourable but the subsequent large mortality study showed that ibopamine increased mortality. Fenoldopam is a selective dopamine D1 receptor agonist. Intravenous fenoldopam may be useful in the treatment of hypertension associated with coronary artery bypass surgery or in hypertensive emergencies. Although our understanding of physiological and pathological roles of peripheral dopamine has been increasing rapidly in recent times, we still need more information to allow the design of clinically useful drugs that modify these roles. One priority is an orally-active selective dopamine D1 receptor agonist.

Therapeutic potential of selective superoxide dismutase mimetics

Selective superoxide dismutase (SOD) mimetics are potentially useful in pathological conditions in which there is an overproduction of the superoxide anion O-2.(-). These pathological conditions include inflammation, ischemia/reperfusion, shock, various cardiovascular disorders, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and other neurodegenerative disorders. A major step forward in this field was the development of small-molecule selective SOD mimetics that penetrate cell membranes, These selective SOD mimetics catalytically remove O-2.(-) without interfering with nitric oxide (NO), peroxynitrite (ONOO-) or other radicals such as hydroxyl radical or hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). These selective SOD mimetics (SC-52608, SC-55858, M-40403 and M-40401) have been shown to have benefits in animal models of inflammation, ischemia/reperfusion, shock, thrombosis and diabetes. The next challenge with selective SOD mimetics is to develop therapeutic potential into therapeutic agents.

The therapeutic potential of endothelin-1 receptor antagonists and endothelin-converting enzyme inhibitors on the cardiovascular system

Clinical trials have established bosentan, an orally active non-selective endothelin (ET) receptor antagonist, as a beneficial treatment in pulmonary hypertension. Trials have also shown short-term benefits of bosentan in systemic hypertension and congestive heart failure. However, bosentan also increased plasma levels of ET-1, probably by inhibiting the clearance of ET-1 by endothelin type B (ET.) receptors, and this may mean its effectiveness is reduced with long-term clinical use. Preliminary data suggests that selective endothelin type A (ETA) receptor antagonists (BQ-123, sitaxsentan) may be more beneficial than the non-selective ET receptor antagonists in heart failure, especially when the failure is associated with pulmonary hypertension. Experimental evidence in animal disease models suggests that non-selective ET or selective ETA receptor antagonism may have a role in the treatment of athero-sclerosis, restenosis, myocarditis, shock and portal hypertension. In animal models of myocardial infarction and/or reperfusion injury, non-selective ET or selective ETA receptor antagonists have beneficial or detrimental effects depending on the conditions and agents used. Thus clinical trials of the nonselective ET or selective ETA receptor antagonists in these conditions are not presently warranted. Several selective endothelin-converting enzyme inhibitors tors have been synthesised recently, and these are only beginning to be tested in animal models of cardiovascular disease, and thus the clinical potential of these inhibitors is still to be defined.

Impact of osteoarthritis on individuals and society: how much disability? Social consequences and health economic implications

Osteoarthritis is a major cause of disability in both the developed and developing world. With the population aging, the prevalence of osteoarthritis is increasing and its consequences are impacting significantly on society. This is one of the reasons why osteoarthritis has been adopted as a major focus (along with osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis, back pain, and musculoskeletal trauma) by the global initiative-the Decade of Bone and Joint Disease. Adequate studies on the costs of osteoarthritis are urgently required so that cogent arguments can be made to governments to appropriately fund prevention and treatment programs for this condition. Its recognition as a major cause of disability, particularly in the aging population, should increase community focus on this important condition. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins, Inc.

Applying discrete element modelling to vertical and horizontal shaft impact crushers

The PFC3D (particle flow code) that models the movement and interaction of particles by the DEM techniques was employed to simulate the particle movement and to calculate the velocity and energy distribution of collision in two types of impact crusher: the Canica vertical shaft crusher and the BJD horizontal shaft swing hammer mill. The distribution of collision energies was then converted into a product size distribution for a particular ore type using JKMRC impact breakage test data. Experimental data of the Canica VSI crusher treating quarry and the BJD hammer mill treating coal were used to verify the DEM simulation results. Upon the DEM procedures being validated, a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of the machine design and operational conditions on velocity and energy distributions of collision inside the milling chamber and on the particle breakage behaviour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.