A trilocus sequence typing scheme for hospital epidemiology and subspecies differentiation of an important nosocomial pathogen, Enterococcus faecalis.

In this study, we present a trilocus sequence typing (TLST) scheme based on intragenic regions of two antigenic genes, ace and salA (encoding a collagen/laminin adhesin and a cell wall-associated antigen, respectively), and a gene associated with antibiotic resistance, lsa (encoding a putative ABC transporter), for subspecies differentiation of Enterococcus faecalis. Each of the alleles was analyzed using 50 E. faecalis isolates representing 42 diverse multilocus sequence types (ST(M); based on seven housekeeping genes) and four groups of clonally linked (by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis [PFGE]) isolates. The allelic profiles and/or concatenated sequences of the three genes agreed with multilocus sequence typing (MLST) results for typing of 49 of the 50 isolates; in addition to the one exception, two isolates were found to have identical TLST types but were single-locus variants (differing by a single nucleotide) by MLST and were therefore also classified as clonally related by MLST. TLST was also comparable to PFGE for establishing short-term epidemiological relationships, typing all isolates classified as clonally related by PFGE with the same type. TLST was then applied to representative isolates (of each PFGE subtype and isolation year) of a collection of 48 hospital isolates and demonstrated the same relationships between isolates of an outbreak strain as those found by MLST and PFGE. In conclusion, the TLST scheme described here was shown to be successful for investigating short-term epidemiology in a hospital setting and may provide an alternative to MLST for discriminating isolates.

Ambulatory care adverse events and preventable adverse events leading to a hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: Most healthcare in the US is delivered in the ambulatory care setting, but the epidemiology of errors and adverse events in ambulatory care is understudied. METHODS: Using the population-based data from the Colorado and Utah Medical Practices Study, we identified adverse events that occurred in an ambulatory care setting and led to hospital admission. Proportions with 95% CIs are reported. RESULTS: We reviewed 14,700-hospital discharge records and found 587 adverse events of which 70 were ambulatory care adverse events (AAEs) and 31 were ambulatory care preventable adverse events (APAEs). When weighted to the general population, there were 2608 AAEs and 1296 (44.3%) APAEs in Colorado and Utah, USA, in 1992. APAEs occurred most commonly in physicians' offices (43.1%, range 46.8-27.8), the emergency department (32.3%, 46.1-18.5) and at home (13.1%, 23.1-3.1). APAEs in day surgery were less common (7.1%, 13.6-0.6) but caused the greatest harm to patients. The types of APAEs were broadly distributed among missed or delayed diagnoses (36%, 50.2-21.8), surgery (24.1%, 36.7-11.5), non-surgical procedures (14.6%, 25.0-4.2), medication (13.1%, 23.1-3.1) and therapeutic events (12.3%, 22.0-2.6). Overall, 10% of the APAEs resulted in serious permanent injury or death. The proportion of APAEs that resulted in death was 31.8% for general internal medicine, 22.5% for family practice and 16.7% for emergency medicine. CONCLUSION: An estimated 75,000 hospitalisations per year are due to preventable adverse events that occur in outpatient settings in the US, resulting in 4839 serious permanent injuries and 2587 deaths.

Patient classification system: An integrated method for measuring nursing intensity and optimizing resource allocation

A patient classification system was developed integrating a patient acuity instrument with a computerized nursing distribution method based on a linear programming model. The system was designed for real-time measurement of patient acuity (workload) and allocation of nursing personnel to optimize the utilization of resources.^ The acuity instrument was a prototype tool with eight categories of patients defined by patient severity and nursing intensity parameters. From this tool, the demand for nursing care was defined in patient points with one point equal to one hour of RN time. Validity and reliability of the instrument was determined as follows: (1) Content validity by a panel of expert nurses; (2) predictive validity through a paired t-test analysis of preshift and postshift categorization of patients; (3) initial reliability by a one month pilot of the instrument in a practice setting; and (4) interrater reliability by the Kappa statistic.^ The nursing distribution system was a linear programming model using a branch and bound technique for obtaining integer solutions. The objective function was to minimize the total number of nursing personnel used by optimally assigning the staff to meet the acuity needs of the units. A penalty weight was used as a coefficient of the objective function variables to define priorities for allocation of staff.^ The demand constraints were requirements to meet the total acuity points needed for each unit and to have a minimum number of RNs on each unit. Supply constraints were: (1) total availability of each type of staff and the value of that staff member (value was determined relative to that type of staff's ability to perform the job function of an RN (i.e., value for eight hours RN = 8 points, LVN = 6 points); (2) number of personnel available for floating between units.^ The capability of the model to assign staff quantitatively and qualitatively equal to the manual method was established by a thirty day comparison. Sensitivity testing demonstrated appropriate adjustment of the optimal solution to changes in penalty coefficients in the objective function and to acuity totals in the demand constraints.^ Further investigation of the model documented: correct adjustment of assignments in response to staff value changes; and cost minimization by an addition of a dollar coefficient to the objective function. ^

Patient self-management of oral anticoagulation with vitamin k antagonists in everyday practice: efficacy and safety in a nationwide long-term prospective cohort study.

Patient self-management (PSM) of oral anticoagulation is under discussion, because evidence from real-life settings is missing. Using data from a nationwide, prospective cohort study in Switzerland, we assessed overall long-term efficacy and safety of PSM and examined subgroups. Data of 1140 patients (5818.9 patient-years) were analysed and no patient were lost to follow-up. Median follow-up was 4.3 years (range 0.2-12.8 years). Median age at the time of training was 54.2 years (range 18.2-85.2) and 34.6% were women. All-cause mortality was 1.4 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.1-1.7) with a higher rate in patients with atrial fibrillation (2.5; 1.6-3.7; p<0.001), patients>50 years of age (2.0; 1.6-2.6; p<0.001), and men (1.6; 1.2-2.1; p = 0.036). The rate of thromboembolic events was 0.4 (0.2-0.6) and independent from indications, sex and age. Major bleeding were observed in 1.1 (0.9-1.5) per 100 patient-years. Efficacy was comparable to standard care and new oral anticoagulants in a network meta-analysis. PSM of properly trained patients is effective and safe in a long-term real-life setting and robust across clinical subgroups. Adoption in various clinical settings, including those with limited access to medical care or rural areas is warranted.

Mitochondrial outer membrane proteome of Trypanosoma brucei reveals macromolecular transport machineries and novel factors required to maintain mitochondrial morphology

The mitochondrial outer membrane (MOM) separates the mitochondria from the cytoplasm, serving both as a barrier and as a gateway. Protein complexes — believed to be universally conserved in all eukaryotes — reside in the MOM to orchestrate and control metabolite exchange, lipid metabolism and uptake of biopolymers such as protein and RNA. African trypanosomes are the causative agent of the sleeping sickness in humans. The parasites are among the earliest diverging eukaryotes that have bona fide mitochondria capable of oxidative phosphorylation. Trypanosomes have unique mitochondrial biology that concerns their mitochondrial metabolism and their unusual mitochondrial morphology that differs to great extent between life stages. Another striking feature is the organization of the mitochondrial genome that does not encode any tRNA genes, thus all tRNAs needed for mitochondrial translation have to be imported. However, the MOM of T. brucei is essentially unchartered territory. It lacks a canonical protein import machinery and facilitation of tRNA translocation remains completely elusive. Using biochemical fractionation and label-free quantitative mass spectrometry for correlated protein abundance-profiling we were able to identify a cluster of 82 candidate proteins that can be localized to the trypanosomal MOM with high confidence. This enabled us to identify a highly unusual, potentially archaic protein import machinery that might also transport tRNAs. Moreover, two-thirds of the identified polypeptides present on the MOM have never been associated with mitochondria before. 40 proteins share homology with proteins of known functions. The function of 42 proteins remains unknown. 11 proteins are essential for the disease-causing bloodstream form of T. brucei and therefore may be exploited as novel drug targets. A comparison with the outer membrane proteome of yeast defines a set of 17 common proteins that are likely present in the MOM of all eukaryotes. Known factors involved in the regulation of mitochondrial morphology are virtually absent in T. brucei. Interestingly, RNAi-mediated ablation of three outer membrane proteins of unknown function resulted in a collapse of the network-like mitochondrion of insect-stage parasites and therefore directly or indirectly are involved in the regulation of mitochondrial morphology.

Influence of transrectal and transabdominal ultrasound examination on salivary cortisol, heart rate, and heart rate variability in mares

Pregnancy diagnostics in equine reproduction are routinely performed using transrectal ultrasonography, although it is also possible to visualize the fetus by transabdominal ultrasound examinations from the 90th day of gestation onward. We hypothesized that ultrasound examinations may stress the mare and that the gestational stage status and lactation may influence the mare's stress reaction. To investigate the stress reaction, 25 thoroughbred mares of different age, pregnancy and lactational status underwent a transrectal examination. In pregnant mares, an additional transabdominal examination was performed. Salivary cortisol concentration, mean heart rate, and heart rate variability of mares were assessed to evaluate the reactions of hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis and of the autonomic nervous system. Significant differences were observed between lactating and nonlactating mares; with a lower responsiveness to stress in lactating mares. The transrectal ultrasound examination in nonlactating mares induced a significant increase in salivary cortisol (P < 0.05), and in the heart rate variability parameter, ratio of low to high frequencies (P < 0.05). This reflects an activation of the HPA axis and a shift to more sympathetic dominance. In contrast, a transabdominally performed pregnancy check did not induce an activation of the HPA axis over basal level but increased the mean heart rate and low to high frequency ratio. The results of this study indicate that checks of advanced pregnancies can be easily performed by transabdominal ultrasonography. With regard to animal welfare, this technique should be preferred during midgestation in nonlactating mares.

Survival with Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the "Docetaxel Era": Data from 917 Patients in the Control Arm of the STAMPEDE Trial (MRC PR08, CRUK/06/019)

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most common disease among men worldwide. It is important to know survival outcomes and prognostic factors for this disease. Recruitment for the largest therapeutic randomised controlled trial in PCa-the Systemic Therapy in Advancing or Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Drug Efficacy: A Multi-Stage Multi-Arm Randomised Controlled Trial (STAMPEDE)-includes men with newly diagnosed metastatic PCa who are commencing long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT); the control arm provides valuable data for a prospective cohort. OBJECTIVE Describe survival outcomes, along with current treatment standards and factors associated with prognosis, to inform future trial design in this patient group. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS STAMPEDE trial control arm comprising men newly diagnosed with M1 disease who were recruited between October 2005 and January 2014. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Overall survival (OS) and failure-free survival (FFS) were reported by primary disease characteristics using Kaplan-Meier methods. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived from multivariate Cox models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS A cohort of 917 men with newly diagnosed M1 disease was recruited to the control arm in the specified interval. Median follow-up was 20 mo. Median age at randomisation was 66 yr (interquartile range [IQR]: 61-71), and median prostate-specific antigen level was 112 ng/ml (IQR: 34-373). Most men (n=574; 62%) had bone-only metastases, whereas 237 (26%) had both bone and soft tissue metastases; soft tissue metastasis was found mainly in distant lymph nodes. There were 238 deaths, 202 (85%) from PCa. Median FFS was 11 mo; 2-yr FFS was 29% (95% CI, 25-33). Median OS was 42 mo; 2-yr OS was 72% (95% CI, 68-76). Survival time was influenced by performance status, age, Gleason score, and metastases distribution. Median survival after FFS event was 22 mo. Trial eligibility criteria meant men were younger and fitter than general PCa population. CONCLUSIONS Survival remains disappointing in men presenting with M1 disease who are started on only long-term ADT, despite active treatments being available at first failure of ADT. Importantly, men with M1 disease now spend the majority of their remaining life in a state of castration-resistant relapse. PATIENT SUMMARY Results from this control arm cohort found survival is relatively short and highly influenced by patient age, fitness, and where prostate cancer has spread in the body.

Prognostic factors and risk groups in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients initially treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin: results of a retrospective multicenter study of 2451 patients

BACKGROUND The impact of prognostic factors in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) patients is critical for proper treatment decision making. OBJECTIVE To assess prognostic factors in patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as initial intravesical treatment of T1G3 tumors and to identify a subgroup of high-risk patients who should be considered for more aggressive treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual patient data were collected for 2451 T1G3 patients from 23 centers who received BCG between 1990 and 2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Using Cox multivariable regression, the prognostic importance of several clinical variables was assessed for time to recurrence, progression, BCa-specific survival, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS With a median follow-up of 5.2 yr, 465 patients (19%) progressed, 509 (21%) underwent cystectomy, and 221 (9%) died because of BCa. In multivariable analyses, the most important prognostic factors for progression were age, tumor size, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS); the most important prognostic factors for BCa-specific survival and OS were age and tumor size. Patients were divided into four risk groups for progression according to the number of adverse factors among age ≥ 70 yr, size ≥ 3 cm, and presence of CIS. Progression rates at 10 yr ranged from 17% to 52%. BCa-specific death rates at 10 yr were 32% in patients ≥ 70 yr with tumor size ≥ 3 cm and 13% otherwise. CONCLUSIONS T1G3 patients ≥ 70 yr with tumors ≥ 3 cm and concomitant CIS should be treated more aggressively because of the high risk of progression. PATIENT SUMMARY Although the majority of T1G3 patients can be safely treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin, there is a subgroup of T1G3 patients with age ≥ 70 yr, tumor size ≥ 3 cm, and concomitant CIS who have a high risk of progression and thus require aggressive treatment.

Stratification of high-risk prostate cancer into prognostic categories: a European multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. A clear definition of prognostic subgroups is mandatory. OBJECTIVE To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for PCa-specific survival (PCSS) in high-risk PCa based on combinations of unfavorable risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 1360 consecutive patients with high-risk PCa treated at eight European high-volume centers. INTERVENTION Retropubic radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Two Cox multivariable regression models were constructed to predict PCSS as a function of dichotomization of clinical stage (< cT3 vs cT3-4), Gleason score (GS) (2-7 vs 8-10), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA; ≤ 20 ng/ml vs > 20 ng/ml). The first "extended" model includes all seven possible combinations; the second "simplified" model includes three subgroups: a good prognosis subgroup (one single high-risk factor); an intermediate prognosis subgroup (PSA >20 ng/ml and stage cT3-4); and a poor prognosis subgroup (GS 8-10 in combination with at least one other high-risk factor). The predictive accuracy of the models was summarized and compared. Survival estimates and clinical and pathologic outcomes were compared between the three subgroups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The simplified model yielded an R(2) of 33% with a 5-yr area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 with no significant loss of predictive accuracy compared with the extended model (R(2): 34%; AUC: 0.71). The 5- and 10-yr PCSS rates were 98.7% and 95.4%, 96.5% and 88.3%, 88.8% and 79.7%, for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis subgroups, respectively (p = 0.0003). Overall survival, clinical progression-free survival, and histopathologic outcomes significantly worsened in a stepwise fashion from the good to the poor prognosis subgroups. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS This study presents an intuitive and easy-to-use stratification of high-risk PCa into three prognostic subgroups. The model is useful for counseling and decision making in the pretreatment setting.

[Management of an acute exacerbation of asthma and COPD]

Asthma and chronic obstructive airways disease are chronic pulmonary diseases which have a high prevalence world-wide. Both conditions can deteriorate acutely and potentially put patients into life-threatening situations. Management of an acute exacerbation starts in the emergency consultation-setting and ends only once the longterm management has been thoroughly assessed and optimised in order to prevent future exacerbations. Exacerbation frequency is strongly associated with long-term morbidity and mortality in both diseases. Recent data have shown that short-course systemic steroids (5 days) for the treatment of an acute exacerbation of COPD are as successful as long-course treatments (14 days) in preventing exacerbations during the subsequent 6 months. Similarly the targeted use of antibiotics is discussed in this review.

Accumulation of FOXP3+T-cells in the tumor microenvironment is associated with an epithelial-mesenchymal-transition-type tumor budding phenotype and is an independent prognostic factor in surgically resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Here we explore the role of the interplay between host immune response and epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-Type tumor-budding on the outcome of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC).CD4+, CD8+, and FOXP3+T-cells as well as iNOS+ (M1) and CD163+- macrophages (M2) were assessed on multipunch tissue-microarrays containing 120 well-characterized PDACs, precursor lesions (PanINs) and corresponding normal tissue. Counts were normalized for the percentage of tumor/spot and associated with the clinico-pathological features, including peritumoral (PTB) and intratumoral (ITB) EMT-Type tumor-budding and outcome.Increased FOXP3+T-cell-counts and CD163-macrophages and decreased CD8+T-cell-counts were observed in PDACs compared with normal tissues and PanINs (p < 0.0001). Increased peritumoral FOXP3+T-cell-counts correlated significantly with venous invasion, distant metastasis, R1-status, high-grade ITB, PTB and independently with reduced survival. Increased intratumoral FOXP3+T-cells correlated with lymphatic invasion, N1-stage, PTB and marginally with adverse outcome. High peritumoral CD163-counts correlated with venous invasion, PTB and ITB. High intratumoral CD163-counts correlated with higher T-stage and PTB.PDAC-microenvironment displays a tumor-favoring immune-cell composition especially in the immediate environment of the tumor-buds that promotes further growth and indicates a close interaction of the immune response with the EMT-process. Increased peritumoral FOXP3+T-cell density is identified as an independent adverse prognostic factor in PDAC. Patients with phenotypically aggressive PDACs may profit from targeted immunotherapy against FOXP3.

Orthotopic Ileal Bladder Substitution in Women: Factors Influencing Urinary Incontinence and Hypercontinence.

BACKGROUND Urinary incontinence or the inability to void spontaneously after ileal orthotopic bladder substitution is a frequent finding in female patients. OBJECTIVE To evaluate how hysterectomy and nerve sparing affect functional outcomes and whether these relate to pre- and postoperative urethral pressure profile (UPP) results. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospectively performed pre- and postoperative UPPs of 73 female patients who had undergone cystectomy and bladder substitution were correlated with postoperative voiding and continence status. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Outcome analyses were performed with the Kruskal-Wallis test, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, or two-group post hoc testing with the Bonferroni correction. Chi-square or Fisher exact tests were applied for the categorical data. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Of postoperatively continent or hypercontinent patients, 22 of 43 (51.2%) had the uterus preserved; of incontinent patients, only 4 of 30 (13.3%, p<0.01) had the uterus preserved. Of postoperatively continent or hypercontinent patients, 27 of 43 patients (62.8%) had bilateral and 15 of 43 (34.9%) had unilateral attempted nerve sparing. In incontinent patients, 11 of 30 (36.7%) had bilateral and 16 of 30 (53.3%) had unilateral attempted nerve sparing (p=0.02). When compared with postoperatively incontinent patients, postoperatively continent patients had a longer functional urethral length (median: 32mm vs 24mm; p<0.001), a higher postoperative urethral closing pressure at rest (56cm H2O vs 35cm H2O; p<0.001) as well as a higher preoperative urethral closing pressure at rest (74cm H2O vs 47.5cm H2O; p=0.01). The main limitation was the limited number of patients. CONCLUSIONS In female patients undergoing radical cystectomy and bladder substitution, preservation of the uterus and attempted nerve sparing results in better functional outcomes. The preoperative UPPs correlate with postoperative voiding and continence status and may predict which patients are at a higher risk of functional failure after bladder substitution. PATIENT SUMMARY If preservation of the urethra's innervation is not possible during cystectomy, poor functional results with bladder substitutes are likely.

Clinical Significance of NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 Expression in Gastric Carcinomas: An Immunohistochemical Study.

BACKGROUND NOTCH signaling can exert oncogenic or tumor suppressive functions and can contribute to chemotherapy resistance in cancer. In this study, we aimed to clarify the clinicopathological significance and the prognostic and predictive value of NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression in gastric cancer (GC). METHODS NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression was determined immunohistochemically in 142 primarily resected GCs using tissue microarrays and in 84 pretherapeutic biopsies from patients treated by neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The results were correlated with survival, response to therapy, and clinico-pathological features. RESULTS Primarily resected patients with NOTCH1-negative tumors demonstrated worse survival. High NOTCH1 expression was associated with early-stage tumors and with significantly increased survival in this subgroup. Higher NOTCH2 expression was associated with early-stage and intestinal-type tumors and with better survival in the subgroup of intestinal-type tumors. In pretherapeutic biopsies, higher NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression was more frequent in non-responding patients, but these differences were statistically not significant. CONCLUSION Our findings suggested that, in particular, NOTCH1 expression indicated good prognosis in GC. The close relationship of high NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 expression with early tumor stages may indicate a tumor-suppressive role of NOTCH signaling in GC. The role of NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 in neoadjuvantly treated GC is limited.

Thyroid function within the normal range and risk of coronary heart disease: an individual participant data analysis of 14 cohorts

IMPORTANCE Some experts suggest that serum thyrotropin levels in the upper part of the current reference range should be considered abnormal, an approach that would reclassify many individuals as having mild hypothyroidism. Health hazards associated with such thyrotropin levels are poorly documented, but conflicting evidence suggests that thyrotropin levels in the upper part of the reference range may be associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). OBJECTIVE To assess the association between differences in thyroid function within the reference range and CHD risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual participant data analysis of 14 cohorts with baseline examinations between July 1972 and April 2002 and with median follow-up ranging from 3.3 to 20.0 years. Participants included 55,412 individuals with serum thyrotropin levels of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L and no previously known thyroid or cardiovascular disease at baseline. EXPOSURES Thyroid function as expressed by serum thyrotropin levels at baseline. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) of CHD mortality and CHD events according to thyrotropin levels after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS Among 55,412 individuals, 1813 people (3.3%) died of CHD during 643,183 person-years of follow-up. In 10 cohorts with information on both nonfatal and fatal CHD events, 4666 of 48,875 individuals (9.5%) experienced a first-time CHD event during 533,408 person-years of follow-up. For each 1-mIU/L higher thyrotropin level, the HR was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.90-1.04) for CHD mortality and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.03) for a first-time CHD event. Similarly, in analyses by categories of thyrotropin, the HRs of CHD mortality (0.94 [95% CI, 0.74-1.20]) and CHD events (0.97 [95% CI, 0.83-1.13]) were similar among participants with the highest (3.50-4.49 mIU/L) compared with the lowest (0.45-1.49 mIU/L) thyrotropin levels. Subgroup analyses by sex and age group yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Thyrotropin levels within the reference range are not associated with risk of CHD events or CHD mortality. This finding suggests that differences in thyroid function within the population reference range do not influence the risk of CHD. Increased CHD risk does not appear to be a reason for lowering the upper thyrotropin reference limit.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.