Synoptic drivers of 400 years of summer temperature and precipitation variability on Mt. Olympus, Greece

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND  Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention". METHODS  A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection. FINDINGS  Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART. CONCLUSIONS  We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

Living in Heterogeneous Woodlands – Are Habitat Continuity or Quality Drivers of Genetic Variability in a Flightless Ground Beetle?

Although genetic diversity is one of the key components of biodiversity, its drivers are still not fully understood. While it is known that genetic diversity is affected both by environmental parameters as well as habitat history, these factors are not often tested together. Therefore, we analyzed 14 microsatellite loci in Abax parallelepipedus, a flightless, forest dwelling ground beetle, from 88 plots in two study regions in Germany. We modeled the effects of historical and environmental variables on allelic richness, and found for one of the regions, the Schorfheide-Chorin, a significant effect of the depth of the litter layer, which is a main component of habitat quality, and of the sampling effort, which serves as an inverse proxy for local population size. For the other region, the Schwäbische Alb, none of the potential drivers showed a significant effect on allelic richness. We conclude that the genetic diversity in our study species is being driven by current local population sizes via environmental variables and not by historical processes in the studied regions. This is also supported by lack of genetic differentiation between local populations sampled from ancient and from recent woodlands. We suggest that the potential effects of former fragmentation and recolonization processes have been mitigated by the large and stable local populations of Abax parallelepipedus in combination with the proximity of the ancient and recent woodlands in the studied landscapes.

Drivers of nitrogen leaching from organic layers in Central European beech forests

Background and Aims: The response of forest ecosystems to continuous nitrogen (N) deposition is still uncertain. We investigated imports and exports of dissolved N from mull-type organic layers to identify the controls of N leaching in Central European beech forests under continuous N deposition. Methods: Dissolved N fluxes with throughfall and through mull-type organic layers (litter leachate) were measured continuously in 12 beech forests on calcareous soil in two regions in Germany over three consecutive growing seasons. Results Mean growing season net (i.e. litter leachate – throughfall flux) fluxes of total dissolved N (TDN) from the organic layer were low (2.3 ± 5.6 kg ha −1 ) but varied widely from 12.9 kg ha −1 to –8.3 kg ha −1 . The small increase of dissolved N fluxes during the water passage through mull-type organic layers suggested that high turnover rates coincided with high microbial N assimilation and plant N uptake. Stand basal area had a positive feedback on N fluxes by providing litter for soil organic matter forma- tion. Plant diversity, especially herb diversity, reduced dissolved N fluxes. Soil fauna biomass increased NO3−-N fluxes with litter leachate by stimulating mineralization. Microbial biomass measures were not related to dissolved N fluxes. Conclusions Our results show that dissolved N exports from organic layers contain significant amounts of throughfall-derived N (mainly NO3−-N) that flushes through the organic layer but also highlight that N leaching from organic layers is driven by the complex interplay of plants, animals and microbes. Furthermore, diverse understories reduce N leaching from Central European beech forests.

Financial performance drivers and strategic control: The case of cancer treatment centers

Strategic control is defined as the use of qualitative and quantitative tools for the evaluation of strategic organizational performance. Most research in strategic planning has focused on strategy formulation and implementation, but little work has been done on strategic performance evaluation particularly in the area of cancer research. The objective of this study was to identify strategic control approaches and financial performance metrics used by major cancer centers in the country as an initial step in expanding the theory and practice behind strategic organizational performance. Focusing on hospitals which share similar mandate and resource constraints was expected to improve measurement precision. The results indicate that most cancer centers use a wide selection of evaluation tools, but sophisticated analytical approaches were less common. In addition, there was evidence that high-performing centers tend to invest a larger degree of resources in the area of strategic performance analysis than centers showing lower financial results. The conclusions point to the need for incorporating higher degree of analytical power in order to improve the tracking of strategic performance. This study is one of the first to concentrate in the area of strategic control.^

Addressing teenage pregnancy in rural areas: A case study from Liberty County, Texas

This study explores the issue of teenage pregnancy in a case study of Liberty County, a rural area in Texas with no public health department. It also describes the decision-making process and barriers faced in the beginning phases of adopting a sexual education program, and sets forth an implementation plan for two school districts on disseminating an evidence-based, comprehensive curriculum. Methods include a review of epidemiological data surrounding teenage pregnancy on the national, state, and county level; a literature review of factors related to teenage pregnancy and past interventions implemented in a rural community; a policy review of past and current bills in Legislature; and an analysis of barriers and decision making in implementing an evidence based program through qualitative observations, discussions with community members during meetings, presentations, and discussions. Results of this study indicate that there is a lack of research conducted in rural areas in the field of teenage pregnancy prevention and sexual education programs. Barriers experienced in Liberty County are shown to be consistent in scientific literature such as funding, logistical issues, and problems approaching the School Board in adopting a comprehensive sexual education program. This study fills a large gap in the literature on rural adolescents and attempts to analyze the process of decision-making in a rural area related to adoption of sexual education programming. In order to relieve this health disparity, further research should focus on rural areas to gain insight on the attitudes and behaviors of rural adolescents and beliefs among community stakeholders.^

Outward FDI from and intraregional FDI in ASEAN : trends and drivers

Developing-country transnational corporations (TNCs) are increasing in importance in the global economy. Outward FDI from developing countries is a proxy indicator to measure how much of an important role enterprises of developing countries have played in the world market and how they benefit from globalization where border barriers are reduced. This study finds that ASEAN enterprises have extended their business activities within ASEAN, East Asia, and then to the world, as both regional and global players.

Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia

Microinsurance is widely considered an important tool for sustainable poverty reduction, especially in the face of increasing climate risk. Although index-based microinsurance, which should be free from the classical incentive problems, has attracted considerable attention, uptake rates have generally been weak in low-income rural communities. We explore the purchase patterns of index-based livestock insurance in southern Ethiopia, focusing in particular on the role of accurate product comprehension and price, including the prospective impact of temporary discount coupons on subsequent period demand due to price anchoring effects. We find that randomly distributed learning kits contribute to improving subjects' knowledge of the products; however, we do not find strong evidence that the improved knowledge per se induces greater uptake. We also find that reduced price due to randomly distributed discount coupons has an immediate, positive impact on uptake, without dampening subsequent period demand due to reference-dependence associated with price anchoring effects.

Potential to attract drivers out of their cars in dense urban areas.

Purpose Sustainable mobility urban policies intend reducing car use and increasing walking, cycling and public transport. However, this transfer from private car to these more sustainable modes is only a real alternative where distances are small and the public transport supply competitive enough. This paper proposes a methodology to calculate the number of trips that can be transferred from private car to other modes in city centres. Method The method starts analyzing which kind of trips cannot change its mode (purposes, conditions, safety , etc.), and then setting a process to determine under which conditions trips made by car between given O-D pairs can be transferable. Then, the application of demand models allow to determine which trips fulfil the transferability conditions. The process test the possibility of transfer in a sequential way: firs to walking, then cycling and finally to public transport. Results The methodology is tested through its application to the city of Madrid (Spain), with the result of only some 18% of the trips currently made by car could be made by other modes, under the same conditions of trip time, and without affecting their characteristics. Out of these trips, 75% could be made by public transport, 15% cycling and 10% on foot. The possible mode to be transferred depends on the location: city centre areas are more favourable for walking and cycling while city skirts could attract more PT trips. Conclusions The proposed method has demonstrated its validity to determine the potential of transferring trips out of cars to more sustainable modes. Al the same time it is clear that, even in areas with favourable conditions for walking, cycling and PT trips, the potential of transfer is limited because cars fulfil more properly special requirements of some trips and tours.

Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change.

Nitrous oxide emissions from European agriculture - an analysis of variability and drivers of emissions from field experiments

Nitrous oxide emissions from a network of agricultural experiments in Europe were used to explore the relative importance of site and management controls of emissions. At each site, a selection of management interventions were compared within replicated experimental designs in plot-based experiments. Arable experiments were conducted at Beano in Italy, El Encin in Spain, Foulum in Denmark, Logarden in Sweden, Maulde in Belgium CE1, Paulinenaue in Germany, and Tulloch in the UK. Grassland experiments were conducted at Crichton, Nafferton and Peaknaze in the UK, Godollo in Hungary, Rzecin in Poland, Zarnekow in Germany and Theix in France. Nitrous oxide emissions were measured at each site over a period of at least two years using static chambers. Emissions varied widely between sites and as a result of manipulation treatments. Average site emissions (throughout the study period) varied between 0.04 and 21.21 kg N2O-N ha−1yr−1, with the largest fluxes and variability associated with the grassland sites. Total nitrogen addition was found to be the single most important deter- minant of emissions, accounting for 15 % of the variance (using linear regression) in the data from the arable sites (p<0.0001), and 77 % in the grassland sites. The annual emissions from arable sites were significantly greater than those that would be predicted by IPCC default emission fac- tors. Variability of N2O emissions within sites that occurred as a result of manipulation treatments was greater than that resulting from site-to-site and year-to-year variation, highlighting the importance of management interventions in contributing to greenhouse gas mitigation

A review and a conceptual framework of the key value drivers of mass customisation

The aim of this paper is to conceptualise the key value drivers of mass customisation in order to provide a structured approach to explain the added value that customers attribute to mass customised products. We assume that the added value of mass customisation is ultimately reflected in an increased willingness to pay. Previous studies show diverse results concerning customers' willingness to pay for mass customised products. We contribute to the existing body of research by suggesting and discussing the influence of general product characteristics and factors of the mass customisation approach on the key value drivers of mass customisation. Furthermore, the development of a conceptual framework offers explanations for the dissimilarity in customers' willingness to pay and advances the knowledge about the value increment of mass customised products as perceived by customers.

Analysis of the traded volume drivers of the Iberian power futures market

A comprehensive assessment of the liquidity development in the Iberian power futures market managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”) in its first 4 years of existence is performed. This market started on July 2006. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market is built as a function of 12 potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the “Over The Counter” (OTC) market, and the OTC cleared volumes in OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). Furthermore, the enrollment of financial members shows strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (Nord Pool and EEX). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (energy intensive industries, suppliers, and small producers) as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions.

Understanding the main drivers of value creation in an open innovation program

Innovation has been identified as the single most relevant element in fuelling corporations’ competitive advantage and ultimate value creation. Corporations no longer rely on a single, linear structure of innovation; the new paradigm of open innovation opens up new possibilities of organizing innovation within the ecosystem, thus giving rise to new drivers for value creation. These value drivers have an impact on the strategic position of the firm and have the ability to create superior financial performance. In this paper we explore the close relationship between open innovation and value creation and propose a framework to analyze this process as well as the most critical elements involved.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.