Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Comparison among three approaches for evaluation of sexual precocity in Nellore cattle

Restricted breeding seasons used in beef cattle produce censored data for reproduction traits measured in regard to these seasons. To analyze these data, adequate methods must be used. The objective of this paper was to compare three approaches aiming to evaluate sexual precocity in Nellore cattle. The final data set contained 6699 records of age at first conception (AFC14) (in days) and of heifer pregnancy (HP14) (binary) obtained from females exposed to the bulls for the first time at about 14 months of age. Records of females that did not calve in the following year after being exposed to a sire were considered censored (77.5% of total). The models used to obtain genetic parameters and expected progeny differences (EPDs) were a Weibull mixed and a censored linear model for AFC14 and threshold model for HP14. The mean heritabilities obtained were 0.76 and 0.44, respectively, for survival and censored linear models (for AFC14), and 0.58 for HP14. Ranking and Pearson correlations varied (in absolute values) from 0.54 to 0.99 (considering different percentages of sires selected), indicating moderate changes in the classification. Considering survival analysis as the best selection criterion (that would result in the best response to selection), it was observed that selection for HP14 would lead to a more significant decrease in selection response if compared with selection for AFC14 analysed by censored linear model, from which results were very similar to the survival analysis.

Recursive hierarchic segmentation analysis of bone mineral density changes on digital panoramic images

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Applied models to biodegradation kinetics of lubricant and vegetable oils in wastewater

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison between univariate and bivariate geostatistical models for estimating catch per unit of effort (cpue): A simulation study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelos matemáticos utilizados para descrever curvas de crescimento em aves aplicados ao melhoramento genético animal

A utilização de funções matemáticas para descrever o crescimento animal é antiga. Elas permitem resumir informações em alguns pontos estratégicos do desenvolvimento ponderal e descrever a evolução do peso em função da idade do animal. Também é possível comparar taxas de crescimento de diferentes indivíduos em estados fisiológicos equivalentes. Os modelos de curvas de crescimento mais utilizados na avicultura são os derivados da função Richards, pois apresentam parâmetros que possibilitam interpretação biológica e portanto podem fornecer subsídios para seleção de uma determinada forma da curva de crescimento em aves. Também pode-se utilizar polinômios segmentados para descrever as mudanças de tendência da curva de crescimento animal. Entretanto, existem importantes fatores de variação para os parâmetros das curvas, como a espécie, o sistema de criação, o sexo e suas interações. A adequação dos modelos pode ser verificada pelos valores do coeficiente de determinação (R2), do quadrado médio do resíduo (QM res), do erro de predição médio (EPm), da facilidade de convergência dos dados e pela possibilidade de interpretação biológica dos parâmetros. Estudos envolvendo modelagem e descrição da curva de crescimento e seus componentes são amplamente discutidos na literatura. Porém, programas de seleção que visem a progressos genéticos para a forma da curva não são mencionados. A importância da avaliação dos parâmetros dos modelos de curvas de crescimento é ainda mais relevante já que os maiores ganhos genéticos para peso estão relacionados com seleção para pesos em idades próximas ao ponto de inflexão. A seleção para precocidade pode ser auxiliada com base nos parâmetros do modelo associados à variáveis que descrevem esta característica genética dos animais. Esses parâmetros estão relacionados a importantes características produtivas e reprodutivas e apresentam magnitudes diferentes, de acordo com a espécie, o sexo e o modelo utilizados na avaliação. Outra metodologia utilizada são os modelos de regressão aleatória, permitindo mudanças graduais nas covariâncias entre idades ao longo do tempo e predizendo variâncias e covariâncias em pontos contidos ao longo da trajetória estudada. A utilização de modelos de regressões aleatórias traz como vantagem a separação da variação da curva de crescimento fenotípica em seus diferentes efeitos genético aditivo e de ambiente permanente individual, mediante a determinação dos coeficientes de regressão aleatórios para esses diferentes efeitos. Além disto, não há necessidade de utilizar fatores de ajuste para a idade. Esta revisão teve por objetivos levantar os principais modelos matemáticos frequentistas utilizados no estudo de curvas de crescimento de aves, com maior ênfase nos empregados com a finalidade de estimar parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos.

The Poisson-exponential distribution: a Bayesian approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Additive genetic relationship of longevity with fertility and production traits in Nellore cattle based on bivariate models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

PRACTICAL LAND GRADING BASED ON LEAST SQUARES.

Practical methods for land grading design of a plane surface for rectangular and irregularly shaped fields based on a least squares analysis are presented. The least squares procedure leads to a system of three linear equations with three unknowns for determination of the best-fit plane. The equations can be solved by determinants (Cramer's rule) using a procedure capable of solution by many programmable calculators. The detailed computational process for determining the equation of the plane and a simple method to find the centroid location of an irregular field are also given. An illustrative example and design instructions are included to demonstrate the application of the design procedure.

The stability of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation parameters

The stability of the parameters of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation was studied using two parametrizations of the sigmoidal function and its fit to some kinetic data. The results indicate that one of the forms of the function has more stable parameters and only for this form it is reasonable to use, as an approximation, the linear regression theory to analyse the parameters. © 1995 Chapman & Hall.

Image registration and image interpolation in volume rendering of cross sections

We outline a method for registration of images of cross sections using the concepts of The Generalized Hough Transform (GHT). The approach may be useful in situations where automation should be a concern. To overcome known problems of noise of traditional GHT we have implemented a slight modified version of the basic algorithm. The modification consists of eliminating points of no interest in the process before the application of the accumulation step of the algorithm. This procedure minimizes the amount of accumulation points while reducing the probability of appearing of spurious peaks. Also, we apply image warping techniques to interpolate images among cross sections. This is needed where the distance of samples between sections is too large. Then it is suggested that the step of registration with GHT can help the interpolation automation by simplifying the correspondence between points of images. Some results are shown.

Tensoes Residuais na Soldagem, Aspectos Basicos

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the basic aspects of the residual stresses in welding. Concepts about macro and micro residual stresses in metals are considered in welding. In a simple welding model is shown how shrinkage macro stress results and how this can contribute to understand the distribution of residual stresses in common type of welded joint. Further, comments are made concerning the effects of additional mechanical and metallurgical phenomena, distortion in weldments and dimensional discrepancies.

Application of a model updating technique for health condition monitoring and damage detection of flexible structures

This paper discusses the application of a damage detection methodology to monitor the location and extent of partial structural damage. The methodology combines, in an iterative way, the model updating technique based on frequency response functions (FRF) with monitoring data aiming at identifying the damage area of the structure. After the updating procedure reaches a good correlation between the models, it compares the parameters of the damage structure with those of the undamaged one to find the deteriorated area. The influence of the FEM mesh size on the evaluation of the extent of the damage has also been discussed. The methodology is applied using real experimental data from a spatial frame structure.

Surface reconstruction using multiple light sources and perspective projection

This paper presents a method to recover 3D geometry of Lambertian surfaces by using multiple images taken from the same view point and with the scene illuminated from different positions. This approach differs from Stereo Photometry in that it considers the light source at a finite distance from the object and the perspective projection in image formation. The proposed model allows local solution and recovery of 3D coordinates, in addition to surface orientation. A procedure to calibrate the light sources is also presented. Results of the application of the algorithm to synthetic images are shown.

Simulação numérica de trocadores de calor multitubulares equipados com fitas helicoidais externamente aos tubos

Classical shell-and-tube heat exchangers are usually equipped with segmental baffles. These baffles serve two basic functions: (a) they provide tube supports, thereby preventing or reducing mechanical problems, such as sagging or vibration; (b) they direct the fluid flow over the tubes so as to introduce a cross-flow component, thereby increasing the heat transfer. Segmented baffles have several sources of performance loss, some due to various leakage flows and others caused by stagnation zones. A new concept of longitudinal flow heat exchanger - based on placing twisted tapes along the tube bundle subchannels - was developed to mitigate drawbacks of other types of tubular heat exchangers. In this paper, a numerical model has been implemented in order to simulate the thermal-hydraulic feature of tubular heat exchangers equipped either with segmental baffles or with subchannel twisted tapes. The tube bundle has been described by means of an equivalent porous medium type model, allowing a macroscopic description of the shell-side flow. The basic equations - continuity, momentum and energy - have been solved by using the finite volume method. Typical numerical results have been compared with experimental data, reaching a very good agreement. A comparative analysis of different types of heat exchangers has been carried out, revealing the satisfactory thermal-hydraulic efficiency level of the twisted tapes heat exchangers.