Hot vs. cold: Sequential responses and preference stability in experimental games

In experiments with two-person sequential games we analyzewhether responses to favorable and unfavorable actions dependon the elicitation procedure. In our hot treatment thesecond player responds to the first player s observed actionwhile in our cold treatment we follow the strategy method and have the second player decide on a contingent action foreach and every possible first player move, without firstobserving this move. Our analysis centers on the degree towhich subjects deviate from the maximization of their pecuniaryrewards, as a response to others actions. Our results show nodifference in behavior between the two treatments. We also findevidence of the stability of subjects preferences with respectto their behavior over time and to the consistency of theirchoices as first and second mover.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Understanding Insurance Company Financial Stability Ratings, January 2007

Choosing a financially strong insurance company is important when buying health insurance. You want the company to still be in business when you have claims, which can be 20 to 30 years from now. Insurance companies selling insurance in Iowa have met the minimum legal standards to be licensed by the State of Iowa Insurance Division. This licensure doesn’t mean the company has a high financial stability rating. Several independent rating agencies evaluate the financial stability of insurance companies. The rating for an individual insurance company is an opinion as to its financial strength and ability to pay claims in the future. When evaluating a company, a rating agency may consider a company's balance sheet strength, operating performance and business management and strategies.

Functional avidity of tumor antigen-specific CTL recognition directly correlates with the stability of MHC/peptide multimer binding to TCR.

Avidity of Ag recognition by tumor-specific T cells is one of the main parameters that determines the potency of a tumor rejection Ag. In this study we show that the relative efficiency of staining of tumor Ag-specific T lymphocytes with the corresponding fluorescent MHC class I/peptide multimeric complexes can considerably vary with staining conditions and does not necessarily correlate with avidity of Ag recognition. Instead, we found a clear correlation between avidity of Ag recognition and the stability of MHC class I/peptide multimeric complexes interaction with TCR as measured in dissociation kinetic experiments. These findings are relevant for both identification and isolation of tumor-reactive CTL.

Price increase and stability with new entries in Cournot markets

It is widely accepted in the literature about the classicalCournot oligopoly model that the loss of quasi competitiveness is linked,in the long run as new firms enter the market, to instability of the equilibrium. In this paper, though, we present a model in which a stableunique symmetric equilibrium is reached for any number of oligopolistsas industry price increases with each new entry. Consequently, the suspicion that non quasi competitiveness implies, in the long run, instabilityis proved false.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Designing institutions for financial stability: Regulation and supervision by objective for the Euro area

In this paper, we discuss pros and cons ofdifferent models for financial market regulationand supervision and we present a proposal forthe re-organisation of regulatory and supervisoryagencies in the Euro Area. Our arguments areconsistent with both new theories and effectivebehaviour of financial intermediaries inindustrialized countries. Our proposed architecturefor financial market regulation is based on theassignment of different objectives or "finalities"to different authorities, both at the domesticand the European level. According to thisperspective, the three objectives of supervision- microeconomic stability, investor protectionand proper behaviour, efficiency and competition- should be assigned to three distinct Europeanauthorities, each one at the centre of a Europeansystem of financial regulators and supervisorsspecialized in overseeing the entire financialmarket with respect to a single regulatoryobjective and regardless of the subjective natureof the intermediaries. Each system should bestructured and organized similarly to the EuropeanSystem of Central Banks and work in connectionwith the central bank which would remain theinstitution responsible for price and macroeconomicstability. We suggest a plausible path to buildour 4-peak regulatory architecture in the Euro area.

The serine-rich N-terminal region of Arabidopsis phytochrome A is required for protein stability.

Deletion or substitution of the serine-rich N-terminal stretch of grass phytochrome A (phyA) has repeatedly been shown to yield a hyperactive photoreceptor when expressed under the control of a constitutive promoter in transgenic tobacco or Arabidopsis seedlings retaining their native phyA. These observations have lead to the proposal that the serine-rich region is involved in negative regulation of phyA signaling. To re-evaluate this conclusion in a more physiological context we produced transgenic Arabidopsis seedlings of the phyA-null background expressing Arabidopsis PHYA deleted in the sequence corresponding to amino acids 6-12, under the control of the native PHYA promoter. Compared to the transgenic seedlings expressing wild-type phyA, the seedlings bearing the mutated phyA showed normal responses to pulses of far-red (FR) light and impaired responses to continuous FR light. In yeast two-hybrid experiments, deleted phyA interacted normally with FHY1 and FHL, which are required for phyA accumulation in the nucleus. Immunoblot analysis showed reduced stability of deleted phyA under continuous red or FR light. The reduced physiological activity can therefore be accounted for by the enhanced destruction of the mutated phyA. These findings do not support the involvement of the serine-rich region in negative regulation but they are consistent with a recent report suggesting that phyA turnover is regulated by phosphorylation.

Fatty acids regulate Thy-1 antigen mRNA stability in T lymphocyte precursors.

In this study, we report the effect of fatty acids on the Thy-1 antigen mRNA decay. Low serum and synthetic medium culture conditions were used to demonstrate that fatty acids, which are important metabolites involved as second messengers in signal transduction, also influence the steady-state mRNA level. Detailed analysis demonstrated that polyunsaturated lipids attached to bovine serum albumin, such as linoleic, linolenic, and arachidonic acids, modulate gene expression specifically in the S1A T lymphoma cell line by inducing a 3-5-fold increase in the steady-state Thy-1 mRNA level, concomitant with a twofold increase in cell surface expression. A similar modulation was observed in the immature CD4-CD8- T cell precursors but not in mature thymocytes. Nuclear run-on and transfection experiments indicated that the observed Thy-1 mRNA level is post-transcriptionally regulated and that the presence of the coding region is sufficient for this adaptive response. A mechanism without a requirement for protein kinase C activation, but involving Ca2+ entry, could account for this difference in Thy-1 mRNA stability.

Engineered aprotinin for improved stability of fibrin biomaterials.

Fibrin has been long used clinically for hemostasis and sealing, yet extension of use in other applications has been limited due to its relatively rapid resorption in vivo, even with addition of aprotinin or other protease inhibitors. We report an engineered aprotinin variant that can be immobilized within fibrin and thus provide extended longevity. When recombinantly fused to a transglutaminase substrate domain from α(2)-plasmin inhibitor (α(2)PI(1-8)), the resulting variant, aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8), was covalently crosslinked into fibrin matrices during normal thrombin/factor XIIIa-mediated polymerization. Challenge with physiological plasmin concentrations revealed that aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8)-containing matrices retained 78% of their mass after 3 wk, whereas matrices containing wild type (WT) aprotinin degraded completely within 1 wk. Plasmin challenge of commercial sealants Omrixil and Tisseel, supplemented with aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8) or WT aprotinin, showed extended longevity as well. When seeded with human dermal fibroblasts, aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8)-supplemented matrices supported cell growth for at least 33% longer than those containing WT aprotinin. Subcutaneously implanted matrices containing aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8) were detectable in mice for more than twice as long as those containing WT aprotinin. We conclude that our engineered recombinant aprotinin variant can confer extended longevity to fibrin matrices more effectively than WT aprotinin in vitro and in vivo.

Measuring the stability of histogram appearance when the anchor position is changed

Although the histogram is the most widely used density estimator, itis well--known that the appearance of a constructed histogram for a given binwidth can change markedly for different choices of anchor position. In thispaper we construct a stability index $G$ that assesses the potential changesin the appearance of histograms for a given data set and bin width as theanchor position changes. If a particular bin width choice leads to an unstableappearance, the arbitrary choice of any one anchor position is dangerous, anda different bin width should be considered. The index is based on the statisticalroughness of the histogram estimate. We show via Monte Carlo simulation thatdensities with more structure are more likely to lead to histograms withunstable appearance. In addition, ignoring the precision to which the datavalues are provided when choosing the bin width leads to instability. We provideseveral real data examples to illustrate the properties of $G$. Applicationsto other binned density estimators are also discussed.

On forward induction and evolutionary and strategic stability

We analyze which normal form solution concepts capture the notion offorward induction, as defined by van Damme (JET, 1989) in the classof generic two player normal form games preceded by an outsideoption. We find that none of the known strategic stability concepts(including Mertens stable sets and hyperstable sets) captures this form of forward induction. On the other hand, we show that the evolutionary concept of EES set (Swinkels, JET, 1992) is always consistent with forward induction.

Assessing an intuitive condition for stability under a range of traffic conditions via a generalised Lu-Kumar network

We argue the importance both of developing simple sufficientconditions for the stability of general multiclass queueing networks and also of assessing such conditions under a range of assumptions on the weight of the traffic flowing between service stations. To achieve the former, we review a peak-rate stability condition and extend its range of application and for the latter, we introduce a generalisation of the Lu-Kumar network on which the stability condition may be tested for a range of traffic configurations. The peak-rate condition is close to exact when the between-station traffic is light, but degrades as this traffic increases.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

A non-quasi-competitive Cournot oligopoly with stability

This paper presents a classical Cournot oligopoly model with some peculiar features: it is non--quasi--competitive as price under N-poly is greater than monopoly price; Cournot equilibrium exists and is unique with each new entry; the successive equilibria after new entries are stable under the adjustment mechanism that assumes that actual output of each seller is adjusted proportionally to the difference between actual output and profit maximizing output. Moreover, the model tends to perfect competition as N goes to infinity, reaching the monopoly price again.